Partitioning variance in population growth for models with environmental and demographic stochasticity.

How demographic factors lead to variation or change in growth rates can be investigated using life table response experiments (LTRE) based on structured population models. Traditionally, LTREs focused on decomposing the asymptotic growth rate, but more recently decompositions of annual 'realized' growth rates using 'transient' LTREs have gained in popularity. Transient LTREs have been used particularly to understand how variation in vital rates translate into variation in growth for populations under long-term study. For these, complete population models may be constructed to investigate how temporal variation in environmental drivers affect vital rates. Such investigations have usually come down to estimating covariate coefficients for the effects of environmental variables on vital rates, but formal ways of assessing how they lead to variation in growth rates have been lacking. We extend transient LTREs to further partition the contributions from vital rates into contributions from temporally varying factors that affect them. The decomposition allows one to compare the resultant effect on the growth rate of different environmental factors, as well as density dependence, which may each act via multiple vital rates. We also show how realized growth rates can be decomposed into separate components from environmental and demographic stochasticity. The latter is typically omitted in LTRE analyses. We illustrate these extensions with an integrated population model (IPM) for data from a 26 years study on northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe), a migratory passerine bird breeding in an agricultural landscape. For this population, consisting of around 50-120 breeding pairs per year, we partition variation in realized growth rates into environmental contributions from temperature, rainfall, population density and unexplained random variation via multiple vital rates, and from demographic stochasticity. The case study suggests that variation in first year survival via the unexplained random component, and adult survival via temperature are two main factors behind environmental variation in growth rates. More than half of the variation in growth rates is suggested to come from demographic stochasticity, demonstrating the importance of this factor for populations of moderate size.

Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals.

Temporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection.

Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains.

The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under "space-for-time substitution", the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space-for-time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid- versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23-year period (1996-2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space-for-time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space-for-time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales.

Why we should care about movements: Using spatially explicit integrated population models to assess habitat source-sink dynamics.

Assessing the source-sink status of populations and habitats is of major importance for understanding population dynamics and for the management of natural populations. Sources produce a net surplus of individuals (per capita contribution to the metapopulation > 1) and will be the main contributors for self-sustaining populations, whereas sinks produce a deficit (contribution < 1). However, making these types of assessments is generally hindered by the problem of separating mortality from permanent emigration, especially when survival probabilities as well as moved distances are habitat-specific. To address this long-standing issue, we propose a spatial multi-event integrated population model (IPM) that incorporates habitat-specific dispersal distances of individuals. Using information about local movements, this IPM adjusts survival estimates for emigration outside the study area. Analysing 24 years of data on a farmland passerine (the northern wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe), we assessed habitat-specific contributions, and hence the source-sink status and temporal variation of two key breeding habitats, while accounting for habitat- and sex-specific local dispersal distances of juveniles and adults. We then examined the sensitivity of the source-sink analysis by comparing results with and without accounting for these local movements. Estimates of first-year survival, and consequently habitat-specific contributions, were higher when local movement data were included. The consequences from including movement data were sex specific, with contribution shifting from sink to likely source in one habitat for males, and previously noted habitat differences for females disappearing. Assessing the source-sink status of habitats is extremely challenging. We show that our spatial IPM accounting for local movements can reduce biases in estimates of the contribution by different habitats, and thus reduce the overestimation of the occurrence of sink habitats. This approach allows combining all available data on demographic rates and movements, which will allow better assessment of source-sink dynamics and better informed conservation interventions.

Weak effects of geolocators on small birds: A meta-analysis controlled for phylogeny and publication bias.

Currently, the deployment of tracking devices is one of the most frequently used approaches to study movement ecology of birds. Recent miniaturization of light-level geolocators enabled studying small bird species whose migratory patterns were widely unknown. However, geolocators may reduce vital rates in tagged birds and may bias obtained movement data. There is a need for a thorough assessment of the potential tag effects on small birds, as previous meta-analyses did not evaluate unpublished data and impact of multiple life-history traits, focused mainly on large species and the number of published studies tagging small birds has increased substantially. We quantitatively reviewed 549 records extracted from 74 published and 48 unpublished studies on over 7,800 tagged and 17,800 control individuals to examine the effects of geolocator tagging on small bird species (body mass <100 g). We calculated the effect of tagging on apparent survival, condition, phenology and breeding performance and identified the most important predictors of the magnitude of effect sizes. Even though the effects were not statistically significant in phylogenetically controlled models, we found a weak negative impact of geolocators on apparent survival. The negative effect on apparent survival was stronger with increasing relative load of the device and with geolocators attached using elastic harnesses. Moreover, tagging effects were stronger in smaller species. In conclusion, we found a weak effect on apparent survival of tagged birds and managed to pinpoint key aspects and drivers of tagging effects. We provide recommendations for establishing matched control group for proper effect size assessment in future studies and outline various aspects of tagging that need further investigation. Finally, our results encourage further use of geolocators on small bird species but the ethical aspects and scientific benefits should always be considered.

Natal dispersers pay a lifetime cost to increased reproductive effort in a wild bird population.

Natal dispersal is assumed to be costly. Such costs can be difficult to detect, and fitness consequences of dispersal are therefore poorly known. Because of lower phenotypic quality and/or familiarity with the environment, natal dispersers may be less buffered against a sudden increase in reproductive effort. Consequently, reproductive costs associated with natal dispersal may mostly be detected in harsh breeding conditions. We tested this prediction by comparing lifetime reproductive success between natal dispersers and non-dispersers in a patchy population of collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis) when they reared either a non-manipulated brood or an experimentally increased or decreased brood. Natal dispersers achieved lower lifetime reproductive success than non-dispersers only under more stressful breeding conditions (i.e. when brood size was experimentally increased). This was mostly due to a lower number of recruits produced in the year of the increase. Our results suggest a cost associated with natal dispersal paid immediately after an increase in reproductive effort and not subsequently compensated for through increased survival or future offspring recruitment. Natal dispersers adjusted their breeding investment when reproductive effort is as predicted but seemed unable to efficiently face a sudden increase in effort, which could affect the influence of environmental predictability on dispersal evolution.

Disentangling the effects of date, individual, and territory quality on the seasonal decline in fitness.

The seasonal timing of reproduction is a major fitness factor in many organisms. Commonly, individual fitness declines with time in the breeding season. We investigated three suggested but rarely tested hypotheses for this seasonal fitness decline: (1) time per se (date hypothesis), (2) late breeders are of lower quality than early ones (individual quality hypothesis), and (3) late breeders are breeding at poorer territories than early breeders (territory quality hypothesis). We used Bayesian variance component analyses to examine reproductive output (breeding success, number fledged, and number of recruits) from repeated observations of female Northern Wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe) and individual territories from a 20-yr population study. The major part of the observed seasonal decline in reproductive output seemed to be driven by date-related effects, whereas female age and territory type (i.e., known indicators of temporary quality) contributed to a smaller degree. Other, persistent effects linked to individual and territory identity did not show any clear patterns on the seasonal decline in reproductive output. To better disentangle the quality effects (persistent and temporary) of individual and territory from effects caused by the deterioration of the environment we suggest a protocol combining experimental manipulation of breeding time with a variance-covariance partitioning method used here.

Effects of a coordinated farmland bird conservation project on farmers' intentions to implement nature conservation practices - Evidence from the Swedish Volunteer & Farmer Alliance.

To increase the efficacy of agri-environmental schemes (AES), as well as farmers' environmental engagement, practitioners are increasingly turning to collective forms of agri-environmental management. As yet, empirical evidence from such approaches is relatively scarce. Here, we examined a farmland bird conservation project coordinated by BirdLife Sweden, the Swedish Volunteer & Farmer Alliance (SVFA). The key features of the SVFA were farmland bird inventories from volunteering birdwatchers and on-farm visits to individual farmers from conservation advisors for guidance on AES as well as unsubsidised practices. Using an ex-post application of the theory of planned behaviour across project participants and a randomly sampled control group of farmers we assessed how SVFA affected behavioural intentions relating to AES and unsubsidised conservation, and how the behaviour was affected by attitudes, perceived social norms and perceived behavioural control. We also included a measure of self-identity as a conservationist to assess its importance for behavioural intentions, and if SVFA stimulated this self-identity. SVFA farmers reported greater commitment to implementing AES and unsubsidised conservation, as compared to the control group. However, greater commitment was associated with more positive attitudes for unsubsidised conservation only and not for AES, underlining the inability of existing AES to prompt intrinsic motivation. There were also differences between farmers within SVFA, where farmers applying to the project were motivated by social influences, while farmers recruited by project managers were motivated by their personal beliefs regarding nature conservation. Finally, farmers' self-perceived ability to perform practices (i.e. perceived behavioural control) was important for their commitment to implementing AES as well as unsubsidised practices. Therefore, increasing farmers' awareness regarding the availability and, not least, practicability of available conservation options may be the key to successful biodiversity conservation in agricultural systems.

Decomposing the seasonal fitness decline.

Seasonal fitness declines are common, but the relative contribution of different reproductive components to the seasonal change in the production of reproductive young, and the component-specific drivers of this change is generally poorly known. We used long-term data (17 years) on breeding time (i.e. date of first egg laid) in northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe) to investigate seasonal reproductive patterns and estimate the relative contributions of reproductive components to the overall decline in reproduction, while accounting for factors potentially linked to seasonal declines, i.e. individual and habitat quality. All reproductive components-nest success (reflecting nest predation rate), clutch size, fledging success and recruitment success-showed a clear decline with breeding time whereas subsequent adult survival did not. A non-linear increase in nest predation rate caused nest success to decline rapidly early in the season and level off at ~80% success late in the breeding season. The combined seasonal decline in all reproductive components caused the mean production of recruits per nest to drop from around 0.7-0.2; with the relative contribution greatest for recruitment success which accounted for ~50% of the decline. Our data suggest that changing environmental conditions together with effects of nest predation have strong effects on the seasonal decline in fitness. Our demonstration of the combined effects of all reproductive components and their relative contribution shows that omitting data from later stages of breeding (recruitment) can greatly underestimate seasonal fitness declines.

Unclear relationships between mean survival rate and its environmental variance in vertebrates.

Current environmental changes may increase temporal variability of life history traits of species thus affecting their long-term population growth rate and extinction risk. If there is a general relationship between environmental variances (EVs) and mean annual survival rates of species, that relationship could be used as a guideline for analyses of population growth and extinction risk for populations, where data on EVs are missing. For this purpose, we present a comprehensive compilation of 252 EV estimates from 89 species belonging to five vertebrate taxa (birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians and fish) covering mean annual survival rates from 0.01 to 0.98. Since variances of survival rates are constrained by their means, particularly for low and high mean survival rates, we assessed whether any observed relationship persisted after applying two types of commonly used variance stabilizing transformations: relativized EVs (observed/mathematical maximum) and logit-scaled EVs. With raw EVs at the arithmetic scale, mean-variance relationships of annual survival rates were hump-shaped with small EVs at low and high mean survival rates and higher (and widely variable) EVs at intermediate mean survival rates. When mean annual survival rates were related to relativized EVs the hump-shaped pattern was less distinct than for raw EVs. When transforming EVs to logit scale the relationship between mean annual survival rates and EVs largely disappeared. The within-species juvenile-adult slopes were mainly positive at low (<0.5) and negative at high (>0.5) mean survival rates for raw and relativized variances while these patterns disappeared when EVs were logit transformed. Uncertainties in how to interpret the results of relativized and logit-scaled EVs, and the observed high variation in EV's for similar mean annual survival rates illustrates that extrapolations of observed EVs and tests of life history drivers of survival-EV relationships need to also acknowledge the large variation in these parameters.

Negative and matrix-dependent effects of dispersal corridors in an experimental metacommunity.

Negative effects of habitat fragmentation are well-known phenomena in ecology, and the use of corridors is one suggested remedy to ameliorate community disassembly. Most experiments of landscape structure, however, do not consider matrix quality and environmental conditions, despite their potential to affect both landscape permeability and population densities. For the first time in fragmented landscapes, we simultaneously investigated the effects of local disturbance, dispersal corridors, matrix quality, and environmental stress, as well as their interactions, on species richness and abundance. We used a natural micro-ecosystem of bryophyte patches with microarthropods as a model system. Contrary to expectations, there were no negative responses to fragmentation of large continuous habitats. Surprisingly, connecting fragmented patches with dispersal corridors had negative effects on the abundance and species richness of the most species-rich group, oribatid mites. It had also negative effects on the abundance of collembolans and predatory mites in landscapes with complex matrix, which was also generally detrimental. Environmental stress was detrimental for all taxa but interacted with matrix type for oribatid species richness and juvenile oribatid abundance. Our results indicate that interactions can strongly alter community responses to common explanatory factors such as fragmentation, disturbance, connectivity, and environmental quality. Future studies of metacommunity dynamics need to consider the potential for such interactions in order to produce robust predictions of spatially structured landscapes.

Understanding and overcoming obstacles in adaptive management.

Adaptive management (AM) is widely promoted to improve management of natural resources, yet its implementation is challenging. We show that obstacles to the implementation of AM are related not only to the AM process per se but also to external factors such as ecosystem properties and governance systems. To overcome obstacles, there is a need to build capacities within the AM process by ensuring adequate resources, management tools, collaboration, and learning. Additionally, building capacities in the legal and institutional frames can enable the necessary flexibility in the governance system. Furthermore, in systems experiencing profound changes in wildlife populations, building such capacities may be even more critical as more flexibility will be needed to cope with increased uncertainty and changed environmental conditions.

Protect European green agricultural policies for future food security.

European green agricultural policies have been relaxed to allow cultivation of fallow land to produce animal feed and meet shortfalls in exports from Ukraine and Russia. However, conversion of semi-natural habitats will disproportionately impact long term biodiversity and food security.

Agricultural intensification and biodiversity partitioning in European landscapes comparing plants, carabids, and birds.

Effects of agricultural intensification (AI) on biodiversity are often assessed on the plot scale, although processes determining diversity also operate on larger spatial scales. Here, we analyzed the diversity of vascular plants, carabid beetles, and birds in agricultural landscapes in cereal crop fields at the field (n = 1350), farm (n = 270), and European-region (n = 9) scale. We partitioned diversity into its additive components alpha, beta, and gamma, and assessed the relative contribution of beta diversity to total species richness at each spatial scale. AI was determined using pesticide and fertilizer inputs, as well as tillage operations and categorized into low, medium, and high levels. As AI was not significantly related to landscape complexity, we could disentangle potential AI effects on local vs. landscape community homogenization. AI negatively affected the species richness of plants and birds, but not carabid beetles, at all spatial scales. Hence, local AI was closely correlated to beta diversity on larger scales up to the farm and region level, and thereby was an indicator of farm- and region-wide biodiversity losses. At the scale of farms (12.83-20.52%) and regions (68.34-80.18%), beta diversity accounted for the major part of the total species richness for all three taxa, indicating great dissimilarity in environmental conditions on larger spatial scales. For plants, relative importance of alpha diversity decreased with AI, while relative importance of beta diversity on the farm scale increased with AI for carabids and birds. Hence, and in contrast to our expectations, AI does not necessarily homogenize local communities, presumably due to the heterogeneity of farming practices. In conclusion, a more detailed understanding of AI effects on diversity patterns of various taxa and at multiple spatial scales would contribute to more efficient agri-environmental schemes in agroecosystems.

Prospectors combine social and environmental information to improve habitat selection and breeding success in the subsequent year.

1. Because habitats have profound effects on individual fitness, there is strong selection for improving the choice of breeding habitat. One possible mechanism is for individuals to use public information when prospecting future breeding sites; however, to our knowledge, no study has shown prospecting behaviour to be directly linked to subsequent choice of breeding site and future reproductive success. 2. We collected long-term data on territory-specific prospecting behaviour and subsequent breeding in the short-lived northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe). Non-breeders established prospecting territories (<2 ha) that overlapped the breeding territories of conspecifics. We tested whether: (i) prospectors used social and environmental cues that predicted territory-specific breeding success in the following year, and (ii) the prospecting territory was tightly linked to the subsequent breeding territory of the prospector, and whether this link would be weakened by intraspecific competition with original territory owners if they also survived. 3. As expected, prospectors were attracted to a combination of site-specific cues that predicted future breeding success, i.e. short ground vegetation, a successfully breeding focal pair and successful close neighbours. 4. Prospecting behaviour was directly linked to the choice of the following year's breeding territory: 79% of surviving prospectors established a breeding territory at their prospecting site in the following year, with their breeding success being higher than other individuals of the same age. As predicted, fidelity to the prospected site was strongly dependent on whether the original territory owner of the same sex had died or moved. 5. Our findings suggest that the use of multiple cues reduces the negative impact of stochasticity on the reliability of social cues at small spatial scales (e.g. territories) and hence increases the probability of breeding success in the next year. Also, the use of conspecific attraction (i.e. the preference for breeding aggregations) is selectively advantageous because individuals are more likely to find a vacancy in an aggregation as compared to a solitary site. By extension, we hypothesize that species life-history traits may influence the spatial scale of prospecting behaviour and habitat selection strategies.

Habitat-specific differences in adult survival rates and its links to parental workload and on-nest predation.

1. Adult survival rates strongly affect population growth, but few studies have quantified if and why adult survival differs between breeding habitats. We investigated potential causes of habitat-specific adult survival rates for male and female northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe L.) breeding in Swedish farmland. 2. We used multistate mark-recapture models based on 1263 breeding records between 1993 and 2007 to estimate survival rates based on habitat-type (SHORT vs. TALL ground vegetation) and breeding-success state parameters. We also used breeding-season observations from 2002 to 2007 and an experimental manipulation of ground vegetation height to identify factors influencing adult mortality. 3. Females had lower annual survival than males (0.42 +/- 0.02 vs. 0.50 +/- 0.02); this difference largely resulted from low female survival in TALL habitats because of higher nest-predation risk and the large proportion of adult females being killed on the nest (>20%) during nest predation events. 4. Among successful breeders, both sexes displayed similar survival rates, but survival was lower for breeders in TALL as compared to SHORT habitats (0.43 +/- 0.03 vs. 0.51 +/- 0.02). Experimental manipulation of ground vegetation height, controlling for individual and territory quality (n = 132), suggested the cost of rearing young to be higher in TALL habitats (survival of successful breeders in TALL vs. SHORT; 0.43 +/- 0.11 vs. 0.57 +/- 0.05). 5. Detailed observations of food provisioning behaviour during chick rearing revealed a habitat-related difference in parental workload corresponding to the observed habitat differences in adult survival for successful breeders. Adults breeding in TALL habitats were forced to forage further from the nest relative to SHORT-habitat breeders (mean +/- SE; 69 +/- 10 vs. 21 +/- 2 m), which increased the estimated daily workload for adults in TALL vs. SHORT habitats by c. 20%. 6. On-nest predation and parental workload during chick rearing combine to largely explain habitat-specific adult survival rates. The results have implications for our understanding of adult sex ratios, causes of source-sink demography and habitat-specific growth rates. Furthermore, it suggests SHORT field margins and other residual habitat elements to be important for the conservation of farmland passerines breeding in cropland plains.

Identifying hotspots of invasive alien terrestrial vertebrates in Europe to assist transboundary prevention and control.

This study aims to identify environmentally suitable areas for 15 of the most harmful invasive alien terrestrial vertebrates (IATV) in Europe in a transparent and replicable way. We used species distribution models and publicly-available data from GBIF to predict environmental suitability and to identify hotspots of IATV accounting for knowledge gaps in their distributions. To deal with the ecological particularities of invasive species, we followed a hierarchical approach to estimate the global climatic suitability for each species and incorporated this information into refined environmental suitability models within Europe. Combined predictions on environmental suitability identified potential areas of IATV concentrations or hotspots. Uncertainty of predictions identified regions requiring further survey efforts for species detection. Around 14% of Europe comprised potential hotspots of IATV richness, mainly located in northern France, UK, Belgium and the Netherlands. IATV coldspots covered ~ 9% of Europe, including southern Sweden and Finland, and northern Germany. Most of Europe (~ 77% area) comprised uncertain suitability predictions, likely caused by a lack of data. Priorities on prevention and control should focus on potential hotspots where harmful impacts might concentrate. Promoting the collection of presence data within data-deficient areas is encouraged as a core strategy against IATVs.

Cannot see the diversity for all the species: Evaluating inclusion criteria for local species lists when using abundant citizen science data.

Abundant citizen science data on species occurrences are becoming increasingly available and enable identifying composition of communities occurring at multiple sites with high temporal resolution. However, for species displaying temporary patterns of local occurrences that are transient to some sites, biodiversity measures are clearly dependent on the criteria used to include species into local species lists. Using abundant opportunistic citizen science data from frequently visited wetlands, we investigated the sensitivity of α- and ß-diversity estimates to the use raw versus detection-corrected data and to the use of inclusion criteria for species presence reflecting alternative site use. We tested seven inclusion criteria (with varying number of days required to be present) on time series of daily occurrence status during a breeding season of 90 days for 77 wetland bird species. We show that even when opportunistic presence-only observation data are abundant, raw data may not produce reliable local species richness estimates and rank sites very differently in terms of species richness. Furthermore, occupancy model based α- and ß-diversity estimates were sensitive to the inclusion criteria used. Total species lists (all species observed at least once during a season) may therefore mask diversity differences among sites in local communities of species, by including vagrant species on potentially breeding communities and change the relative rank order of sites in terms of species richness. Very high sampling effort does not necessarily free opportunistic data from its inherent bias and can produce a pattern in which many species are observed at least once almost everywhere, thus leading to a possible paradox: The large amount of biological information may hinder its usefulness. Therefore, when prioritizing among sites to manage or preserve species diversity estimates need to be carefully related to relevant inclusion criteria depending on the diversity estimate in focus.

Spatial patterns of bat diversity overlap with woodpecker abundance.

Woodpecker diversity is usually higher in natural forests rich in dead wood and old trees than in managed ones, thus this group of birds is regarded as an indicator of forest biodiversity. Woodpeckers excavate cavities which can be subsequently used by several bird species. As a consequence, their abundance indicates high avian abundance and diversity in forests. However, woodpecker-made holes may be also important for other animals, for example, mammals but it has seldom been investigated so far. Here, we examine how well one species, the Great Spotted Woodpecker, predicts species richness, occurrence and acoustic activity of bats in Polish pine forests. In 2011 we conducted woodpecker and bat surveys at 63 point-count sites in forests that varied in terms of stand age, structure and amount of dead wood. From zero to five Great Spotted Woodpeckers at a point-count site were recorded. The total duration of the echolocation calls during a 10-min visit varied from 0 to 542 s and the number of bat species/species groups recorded during a visit ranged between zero to five. The local abundance of the woodpecker was positively correlated with bat species richness (on the verge of significance), bat occurrence and pooled bat activity. The occurrence of Eptesicus and Vespertilio bats and Nyctalus species was positively related with the abundance of the Great Spotted Woodpecker. The activity of Pipistrellus pygmaeus, Eptesicus and Vespertilio bats and a group of Myotis species was not associated with the woodpecker abundance, but echolocation calls of Nyctalus species, P. nathusii and P.pipistrellus were more often at sites with many Great Spotted Woodpeckers. Moreover, the probability of bat presence and the activity of bats was generally higher shortly after dusk and in middle of the summer than in late spring. We suggest that the observed correlations can be driven by similar roosting habitats (e.g., woodpeckers can provide breeding cavities for bats) or possibly by associated invertebrate food resources of woodpeckers and bats. The abundance of Great Spotted Woodpecker seems to be a good positive indicator of bat species richness, occurrence and activity, thus adding a group of relatively cryptic forest species that are indicated by the presence of the Great Spotted Woodpecker.

The use of socio-economy in species distribution modelling: Features of rural societies improve predictions of barn owl occurrence.

Variation of habitats and resources important for farmland birds seems to be only partly captured by ordinary statistics on land-use and agricultural production. For instance, densities of rodents being prey for owls and raptors or structures of rural architecture providing nesting sites for many species are central for bird diversity but are not reported in any official statistics. Thus, modelling species distributions, population abundance and trends of farmland birds may miss important predictive habitat elements. Here, we involve local socio-economy factors as a source of additional information on rural habitat to test whether it improves predictions of barn owl occurrence in 2768 churches across Poland. Barn owls occurred in 778 churches and seemed to prefer old churches made of brick located in regions with a milder climate, higher share of arable land and pastures, low road density and low levels of light pollution. Including data on local unemployment, the proportion of elder citizens, commune income per citizen, the share of citizens with high education and share of farmers among working population improved the model substantially and some of these variables predicted barn owl occurrence better than several land-use and climate data. Barn owls were more likely to occur in areas with high unemployment, a higher proportion of older citizens in a local population and higher share of farmers among working population. Importantly, the socio-economy variables were correlated with the barn owl occurrence despite all climatic, infrastructure and land-use data were present in the model. We conclude that the socio-economy of local societies may add important but overlooked information that links to spatial variation in farmland biodiversity.