The Development and Validation of Simplified Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Prognosis of Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19: Multicenter, Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: The current COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented; under resource-constrained settings, predictive algorithms can help to stratify disease severity, alerting physicians of high-risk patients; however, there are only few risk scores derived from a substantially large electronic health record (EHR) data set, using simplified predictors as input. OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study were to develop and validate simplified machine learning algorithms that predict COVID-19 adverse outcomes; to evaluate the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and calibration of the algorithms; and to derive clinically meaningful thresholds. METHODS: We performed machine learning model development and validation via a cohort study using multicenter, patient-level, longitudinal EHRs from the Optum COVID-19 database that provides anonymized, longitudinal EHR from across the United States. The models were developed based on clinical characteristics to predict 28-day in-hospital mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, respiratory failure, and mechanical ventilator usages at inpatient setting. Data from patients who were admitted from February 1, 2020, to September 7, 2020, were randomly sampled into development, validation, and test data sets; data collected from September 7, 2020, to November 15, 2020, were reserved as the postdevelopment prospective test data set. RESULTS: Of the 3.7 million patients in the analysis, 585,867 patients were diagnosed or tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, and 50,703 adult patients were hospitalized with COVID-19 between February 1 and November 15, 2020. Among the study cohort (n=50,703), there were 6204 deaths, 9564 ICU admissions, 6478 mechanically ventilated or EMCO patients, and 25,169 patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome or respiratory failure within 28 days since hospital admission. The algorithms demonstrated high accuracy (AUC 0.89, 95% CI 0.89-0.89 on the test data set [n=10,752]), consistent prediction through the second wave of the pandemic from September to November (AUC 0.85, 95% CI 0.85-0.86) on the postdevelopment prospective test data set [n=14,863], great clinical relevance, and utility. Besides, a comprehensive set of 386 input covariates from baseline or at admission were included in the analysis; the end-to-end pipeline automates feature selection and model development. The parsimonious model with only 10 input predictors produced comparably accurate predictions; these 10 predictors (age, blood urea nitrogen, SpO2, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, respiration rate, pulse, temperature, albumin, and major cognitive disorder excluding stroke) are commonly measured and concordant with recognized risk factors for COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: The systematic approach and rigorous validation demonstrate consistent model performance to predict even beyond the period of data collection, with satisfactory discriminatory power and great clinical utility. Overall, the study offers an accurate, validated, and reliable prediction model based on only 10 clinical features as a prognostic tool to stratifying patients with COVID-19 into intermediate-, high-, and very high-risk groups. This simple predictive tool is shared with a wider health care community, to enable service as an early warning system to alert physicians of possible high-risk patients, or as a resource triaging tool to optimize health care resources.

A Study of Novel Febrile Neutropenia Risk Factors Related to Bone Marrow or Immune Suppression, Barrier Function, and Bacterial Flora.

Background: Previously identified patient-level risk factors for chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia (FN) indicate several potential underlying pathogenic mechanisms, including bone marrow suppression, impaired neutrophil function, or disturbances of barrier function. This study evaluated whether additional clinical characteristics related to these pathogenic mechanisms were risk factors for FN. Patients and Methods: The study population included patients diagnosed with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma or breast, lung, colorectal, ovarian, or gastric cancer between 2000 and 2009 at Kaiser Permanente Southern California and treated with myelosuppressive chemotherapy. Those who received prophylactic granulocyte colony-stimulating factor or antibiotics were excluded. Potential risk factors of interest included surgery, radiation therapy, selected dermatologic/mucosal conditions, and use of antibiotics and corticosteroids. All data were collected using electronic medical records. Multivariable Cox models were used to evaluate associations between these factors and risk of FN in the first chemotherapy cycle, and adjusted using propensity score-based functions. Results: A total of 15,971 patients were included. Of these, 4.3% developed FN in the first chemotherapy cycle. Use of corticosteroids was significantly associated with increased risk of FN (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.53; 95% CI, 1.17-1.98). Selected dermatologic/mucosal conditions and intravenous antibiotic use were marginally associated with increased risk of FN (aHR, 1.40; 95% CI, 0.98-1.93, and 1.35; 95% CI, 0.97-1.87, respectively). Surgery, radiation therapy, and oral antibiotic use were not statistically significantly associated with FN. Conclusions: Dermatologic or mucosal conditions that might affect barrier integrity and use of corticosteroids and intravenous antibiotics prior to chemotherapy may increase risk of FN and should be considered in prophylaxis use and FN prediction modeling.

Impact of Strong Scattering Resonances on Ballistic and Diffusive Wave Transport.

The strong impact of scattering resonances on all the key transport parameters of classical waves in disordered media is demonstrated through ultrasonic experiments on monodisperse emulsions. Through accurate measurements of both ballistic and diffusive transport over a wide range of frequencies, we show that the group velocity is large near sharp resonances, whereas the energy velocity (as well as the diffusion coefficient) is significantly slowed down by resonant scattering delay. Excellent agreement between theory and experiment is found, elucidating the effects of resonant scattering on wave transport in both acoustics and optics.

Risk of Febrile Neutropenia Associated With Select Myelosuppressive Chemotherapy Regimens in a Large Community-Based Oncology Practice.

Background: NCCN has classified commonly used chemotherapy regimens into high (>20%), intermediate (10%-20%), or low (<10%) febrile neutropenia (FN) risk categories based primarily on clinical trial evidence. Many chemotherapy regimens, however, remain unclassified by NCCN or lack FN incidence data in real-world clinical practice. Patients and Methods: We evaluated incidence proportions of FN and grade 4 and 3/4 neutropenia during the first chemotherapy course among patients from Kaiser Permanente Southern California who received selected chemotherapy regimens without well-established FN risk. Patients given granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) prophylaxis were excluded. Sensitivity analyses were performed to account for FN misclassification and censoring. Results: From 2008 to 2013, 1,312 patients with breast cancer who received docetaxel and cyclophosphamide (TC; n=853) or docetaxel, carboplatin, and trastuzumab (TCH; n=459); 1,321 patients with colorectal cancer who received capecitabine and oxaliplatin (XELOX; n=401) or leucovorin, 5-fluorouracil, and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX6; n=920); 307 patients with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma who received bendamustine with or without rituximab; and 181 patients with multiple myeloma who received lenalidomide with or without dexamethasone were included. Crude FN risk was >20% for both breast cancer regimens (TC and TCH). Crude FN risks for XELOX, FOLFOX6, bendamustine, and lenalidomide were <10%; however, when potential FN misclassification and censoring were considered, FN risks were >10%. Conclusions: Our results support published literature highlighting the real-world, "high" FN risk of the TC and TCH regimens for breast cancer. There is strong suggestive evidence that FN risks for XELOX, FOLFOX6, bendamustine, and lenalidomide are >10%. Calculation of chemotherapy course-level FN incidence without controlling for differential censoring for patients who discontinued regimens early, or possible FN misclassification, might have resulted in bias toward an underestimation of the true FN risk. These findings help define FN risk of the selected regimens in the real-world setting and inform prophylactic G-CSF use.

Relation between ultrasonic properties, rheology and baking quality for bread doughs of widely differing formulation.

BACKGROUND: The objective was to evaluate whether an ultrasonic reflectance technique has predictive capacity for breadmaking performance of doughs made under a wide range of formulation conditions. Two flours of contrasting dough strength augmented with different levels of ingredients (inulin, oil, emulsifier or salt) were used to produce different bread doughs with a wide range of properties. Breadmaking performance was evaluated by conventional large-strain rheological tests on the dough and by assessment of loaf quality. The ultrasound tests were performed with a broadband reflectance technique in the frequency range of 0.3-6 MHz. RESULTS: Principal component analysis showed that ultrasonic attenuation and phase velocity at frequencies between 0.3 and 3 MHz are good predictors for rheological and bread scoring characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Ultrasonic parameters had predictive capacity for breadmaking performance for a wide range of dough formulations. Lower frequency attenuation coefficients correlated well with conventional quality indices of both the dough and the bread. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Relationship between severity and duration of chemotherapy-induced neutropenia and risk of infection among patients with nonmyeloid malignancies.

PURPOSE: Chemotherapy-induced neutropenia (CIN) may increase infection risk for cancer patients; however, there is limited understanding on the quantitative relationships between severity and duration of CIN and infection risk. METHODS: This study combined individual data from adult cancer patients receiving no granulocyte colony-stimulating factor during the first chemotherapy cycle in six trials. We used area over the curve (AOC) of absolute neutrophil count (ANC) time-response curve (below different thresholds) to measure the combined effect of severity and duration of CIN. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models quantified the hazard of first infection associated with duration of grade 4 or grade 3/4 CIN and the hazard associated with AOC. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 271 patients who had small cell lung cancer, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, head and neck cancer, or breast cancer; 63.8 % of the patients had advanced cancer, and 77.5 % received chemotherapy regimens with high risk of febrile neutropenia. In the first cycle, 18.8 % of the patients had infection-related hospitalizations. Each additional day patients had grade 3/4 or grade 4 CIN was associated with 28 % (95 % CI 7, 51 %) and 30 % (95 % CI 10, 54 %) increased risk of infection-related hospitalization, respectively. Each unit increase in AOC (day × 10(9)/L ANC), with threshold of ANC < 0.5 × 10(9)/L, was associated with a significantly increased risk of infection-related hospitalization (hazard ratio 1.98; 95 % CI 1.35, 2.90). CONCLUSIONS: Infection risk increases dramatically with each additional day of grade 3 or 4 CIN. Interventions limiting CIN severity and duration are of critical importance to reduce infection risk in cancer patients receiving chemotherapy.

The effect of chemotherapy-induced anemia on dose reduction and dose delay.

PURPOSE: To evaluate moderate (grade 2, hemoglobin <10 g/dl) and severe (grade 3+, hemoglobin <8 g/dl) anemia as potential risk factors for DDR in the first line course of chemotherapy. While chemotherapy-induced neutropenia has been shown to be associated with dose delay/reduction (DDR) in several studies, the effect of anemia is less well studied. METHODS: We identified 3955 Kaiser Permanente patients diagnosed with incident non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (n = 574), breast (n = 2043), lung (n = 463), gastric (n = 113), ovarian (n = 204), or colorectal cancers (n = 558) between 2010 and 2012. Generalized linear mixed effects models were used to study the effect of anemia in subsequent cycles, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, chemotherapy cycle, neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, and liver and renal function. RESULTS: We found that moderate (grade 2) to severe (grade 3-4) anemia increased the risk of DDR in subsequent chemotherapy cycles [odds ratio (OR) = 1.46, 95 % CI (1.32, 1.62) and OR = 2.02 (1.41, 2.89)], respectively, compared to grade 1 or no anemia. Both stage I-III and IV patients with grade 2 or greater anemia were at higher risk for DDR than patients with grade 1 or no anemia [ORstage IV, grade 2 = 1.94 (1.58, 2.38); ORstage IV, grade 3/4 = 2.83 (1.42, 5.62) and ORstage I-III, grade 2 = 1.33 (1.18, 1.49); ORstage I-III, grade 3-4 = 1.81 (1.18, 2.76)]. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide insight into novel risk factors for chemotherapy dose modification that may inform clinicians on management strategies to optimize treatment outcomes.

Trends in anemia treatment among patients with five non-myeloid malignancies treated with chemotherapy in a large integrated health care delivery system in California, 2000-2013.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study is to examine treatment patterns for chemotherapy-induced anemia (CIA) between calendar periods when the changes in the US prescribing information, for erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) took place. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with breast, lung, colorectal, ovarian, or gastric cancer (2000-2012) who developed grade 2+ CIA (hemoglobin (Hb) <10 g/dl) were identified from Kaiser Permanente Southern California Health Plan. We estimated the proportions of CIA episodes with ESA use, red blood cell (RBC) transfusion, or prescription nutritional supplements in three calendar periods: January 1, 2000-December 31, 2006 (P1), January 1, 2007-March 24, 2010 (P2), and March 25, 2010-June 30, 2013 (P3). Multivariable regressions were used to test the differences of CIA treatment approaches and Hb concentration prior to CIA treatment across these calendar periods. RESULTS: The proportions of CIA episodes with ESA use were 28 % in P1, 21 % in P2, and 3 % in P3. For RBC transfusion, they were 8 % in P1, 14 % in P2 and 16 % in P3. The trend of decreasing ESA use and increasing transfusion use were statistically significant. Relative to P1, the odds ratio (OR) was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.55, 0.86) for P2 and 0.08 (0.30, 0.88) for P3 for ESA use. For RBC transfusion, OR was 2.00 (1.56, 2.56) for P2 and 2.37 (1.88, 3.00) for P3. Use of prescription nutritional supplement was rare across calendar periods. There was a decreasing trend of Hb concentration prior to ESA use (p value <0.01), but no difference in Hb concentrations prior to transfusion. CONCLUSION: In the management of CIA, use of ESA has decreased over time, while use of RBC transfusion has increased.

The impact of primary prophylaxis with granulocyte colony-stimulating factors on febrile neutropenia during chemotherapy: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PURPOSE: The study aims to assess the relative efficacy of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) products administered as primary prophylaxis (PP) to patients with cancer receiving myelosuppressive chemotherapy. METHODS: A systematic literature review identified publications (January 1990 to September 2013) of randomized controlled trials evaluating PP with filgrastim, pegfilgrastim, lenograstim, or lipegfilgrastim in adults receiving myelosuppressive chemotherapy for solid tumors or non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Direct, indirect, and mixed-treatment comparison (MTC) were used to estimate the odds ratio and 95 % credible interval of febrile neutropenia (FN) during cycle 1 and all cycles of chemotherapy combined without adjusting for differences in relative dose intensity (RDI) between study treatment arms. RESULTS: Twenty-seven publications representing 30 randomized controlled trials were included. Using MTC over all chemotherapy cycles, PP with filgrastim, pegfilgrastim, lenograstim, and lipegfilgrastim versus no G-CSF PP or placebo were associated with statistically significantly reduced FN risk. FN risk was also significantly reduced with pegfilgrastim PP versus filgrastim PP. Over all chemotherapy cycles, there was a numerical but statistically nonsignificant increase in the FN risk for lipegfilgrastim PP versus pegfilgrastim PP. Using MTC in cycle 1, PP with filgrastim, pegfilgrastim, and lipegfilgrastim versus no G-CSF PP or placebo were associated with statistically significantly reduced FN risk. CONCLUSIONS: In this meta-analysis, using MTC without adjustment for RDI, PP with all G-CSFs evaluated reduced the FN risk in patients receiving myelosuppressive chemotherapy. Future studies are needed to assess the influence of RDI on FN outcomes and to eliminate potential bias between G-CSF arms receiving more intensive chemotherapy than control arms.

Use of pegfilgrastim primary prophylaxis and risk of infection, by chemotherapy cycle and regimen, among patients with breast cancer or non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

PURPOSE: This study aims to examine granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) prophylaxis by cancer type, chemotherapy regimen, and cycle in a real-world setting to assess if practice conforms to clinical guidelines, which recommend G-CSF prophylaxis every cycle when a patient's risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) is 20% or greater, and to describe the incidence of FN among patients who discontinue pegfilgrastim (peg) prophylaxis. METHODS: The cohort was selected from administrative claims data and includes adults diagnosed with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) or breast cancer (BC) who began chemotherapy 2005-2010. RESULTS: About 83.2% of the 4,470 patients with BC treated with dose-dense doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide (ddAC), 83.6% of 2,197 patients with BC treated with docetaxel, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide (TAC), and about 55.6% of the 2,722 patients with NHL treated with cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, with or without prednisone for 3-week cycles (CHOP-R Q3W) received peg prophylaxis in cycle 1. Among patients on these regimens who received peg prophylaxis in cycle 1 and were still on the regimen in cycle 4, about 90% received peg prophylaxis in that cycle. Among patients with BC or NHL who discontinued G-CSF, the incidence proportion of infection or FN varied by regimen and cycle, with a range from 0 to 14%. CONCLUSIONS: Despite clinical guidelines recommending G-CSF prophylaxis with chemotherapy regimens with a high risk of FN, many NHL and BC patients do not receive FN prophylaxis in cycle 1. However, among patients who receive G-CSF in cycle 1 and remain on the regimen, the majority appear to continue prophylaxis as indicated.

Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) patterns of use in cancer patients receiving myelosuppressive chemotherapy.

PURPOSE: Febrile neutropenia (FN) is a common and serious complication of myelosuppressive chemotherapy. Guidelines recommend primary granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSF) prophylaxis (PPG) in patients with a high risk (HR, >20 %) of developing FN. We performed a retrospective analysis using a subset of the Medicare 5 % database to assess patterns of G-CSF use and FN occurrence among elderly cancer patients receiving myelosuppressive chemotherapy. METHODS: Chemotherapy courses for patients aged 65+ years were identified; only the first course was used for this analysis. Using clinical guidelines, chemotherapy regimens were classified as HR or intermediate risk (IR) for FN. The first administration of G-CSF was classified as either PPG (within the first 5 days of the first cycle), secondary prophylaxis, or reactive. RESULTS: Twelve thousand seven hundred seven courses across five tumor types were classified as having a HR or IR regimen. G-CSF was used in 24.5-73.8 % of patients receiving a HR FN regimen, with the highest use in breast cancer or NHL. Except for breast cancer (where PPG was used in 52.1 %), PPG was given in less than half of patients receiving a HR regimen. Depending on the tumor type, 4.8-22.6 % of patients with a HR regimen had a neutropenia-related hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Guidelines recommend PPG with HR FN regimens and older age (>65 years), an important risk factor for developing severe neutropenic complications. However, our results show that in this elderly population, PPG was not routinely used (range 4.8-52.1 %) in patients receiving HR FN regimens. Careful attention to FN risk factors, including chemotherapy regimen and patient age, is needed when planning treatment strategies.

Chronic comorbid conditions associated with risk of febrile neutropenia in breast cancer patients treated with chemotherapy.

Chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia (FN) is associated with increased patient mortality and health care costs. Comorbid conditions such as liver and renal dysfunction have been linked to increased risk of FN. However, the effects of other chronic comorbid conditions on risk of FN have not been well studied. To examine the association between chronic comorbid conditions and FN in breast cancer patients, we identified incident breast cancer patients from 2000 to 2009 treated with chemotherapy at Kaiser Permanente Southern California, a large managed care organization. Patients who received primary prophylactic granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) were excluded. We assessed history of comorbid conditions prior to cancer diagnosis using ICD-9 codes and disease registries. FN events were identified in the first chemotherapy cycle using a combination of ICD-9 codes and hospital discharge diagnoses. For each comorbid condition, propensity scores that included patient characteristics and other predisposing comorbid conditions were calculated and adjusted for in Cox models to determine associations between that comorbid condition and FN. We also evaluated secondary models that additionally adjusted for cancer stage, baseline absolute neutrophil count (ANC), chemotherapy regimen, and dose reductions. A total of 7,127 breast cancer patients were included; median age was 55 years, and the majority had localized (47 %) or regional (49 %) disease at diagnosis. In the first chemotherapy cycle, 335 (4.7 %) patients developed FN. Congestive heart failure (HR = 3.0; 95 % CI: 1.3-5.9), osteoarthritis (HR = 2.0; 95 % CI: 1.4-2.8), previous cancer (HR = 3.4; 95 % CI: 1.2-7.5), and thyroid disorder (HR = 1.6; 95 % CI: 1.1-2.3) were associated with increased risk of FN. These estimates were similar to those from secondary models that also adjusted for additional cancer and treatment-related covariates. Our findings suggest that several chronic comorbid conditions may be associated with risk of FN. This information, if confirmed by others, may aid clinical decision making with respect to use of prophylactic G-CSF during chemotherapy treatment.

Opportunistic CT Screening-Machine Learning Algorithm Identifies Majority of Vertebral Compression Fractures: A Cohort Study.

Vertebral compression fractures (VCF) are common in patients older than 50 years but are often undiagnosed. Zebra Medical Imaging developed a VCF detection algorithm, with machine learning, to detect VCFs from CT images of the chest and/or abdomen/pelvis. In this study, we evaluated the diagnostic performance of the algorithm in identifying VCF. We conducted a blinded validation study to estimate the operating characteristics of the algorithm in identifying VCFs using previously completed CT scans from 1200 women and men aged 50 years and older at a tertiary-care center. Each scan was independently evaluated by two of three neuroradiologists to identify and grade VCF. Disagreements were resolved by a senior neuroradiologist. The algorithm evaluated the CT scans in a separate workstream. The VCF algorithm was not able to evaluate CT scans for 113 participants. Of the remaining 1087 study participants, 588 (54%) were women. Median age was 73 years (range 51-102 years; interquartile range 66-81). For the 1087 algorithm-evaluated participants, the sensitivity and specificity of the VCF algorithm in diagnosing any VCF were 0.66 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59-0.72) and 0.90 (95% CI 0.88-0.92), respectively, and for diagnosing moderate/severe VCF were 0.78 (95% CI 0.70-0.85) and 0.87 (95% CI 0.85-0.89), respectively. Implementing this VCF algorithm within radiology systems may help to identify patients at increased fracture risk and could support the diagnosis of osteoporosis and facilitate appropriate therapy. © 2023 Amgen, Inc. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Development and Validation of Algorithms to Identify COVID-19 Patients Using a US Electronic Health Records Database: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Introduction: In order to identify and evaluate candidate algorithms to detect COVID-19 cases in an electronic health record (EHR) database, this study examined and compared the utilization of acute respiratory disease codes from February to August 2020 versus the corresponding time period in the 3 years preceding. Methods: De-identified EHR data were used to identify codes of interest for candidate algorithms to identify COVID-19 patients. The number and proportion of patients who received a SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) within ±10 days of the occurrence of the diagnosis code and patients who tested positive among those with a test result were calculated, resulting in 11 candidate algorithms. Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios assessed the candidate algorithms by clinical setting and time period. We adjusted for potential verification bias by weighting by the reciprocal of the estimated probability of verification. Results: From January to March 2020, the most commonly used diagnosis codes related to COVID-19 diagnosis were R06 (dyspnea) and R05 (cough). On or after April 1, 2020, the code with highest sensitivity for COVID-19, U07.1, had near perfect adjusted sensitivity (1.00 [95% CI 1.00, 1.00]) but low adjusted specificity (0.32 [95% CI 0.31, 0.33]) in hospitalized patients. Discussion: Algorithms based on the U07.1 code had high sensitivity among hospitalized patients, but low specificity, especially after April 2020. None of the combinations of ICD-10-CM codes assessed performed with a satisfactory combination of high sensitivity and high specificity when using the SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR as the reference standard.

Coronary artery calcium scores indicating secondary prevention level risk: Findings from the CAC consortium and FOURIER trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) burden displays a stepwise association with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Among primary prevention patients, we sought to determine the CAC scores equivalent to ASCVD mortality rates observed in the FOURIER trial, a modern secondary prevention cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: For the main analysis, we included participants from the CAC Consortium ≥50 years old with a 10-year ASCVD risk ≥7.5% (n = 20,207). Poisson regression was used to define the relationship between CAC and annual ASCVD mortality. Equations generated from the regression models were then used to derive CAC scores associated with equivalent annual ASCVD mortality as observed in FOURIER placebo participants from the overall trial and in key trial subgroups. The CAC Consortium participants had a similar age (65.5 versus 62.5 years) and sex (22% versus 24% female) distribution as FOURIER. The annualized ASCVD mortality rate in FOURIER participants (0.766 per 100 person-years) corresponded to a CAC score of 781 (418-1467). A CAC score of 255 (162-394) corresponded to an ASCVD mortality rate equivalent to the lowest risk FOURIER subgroup (presence of myocardial infarction >2 years prior to trial enrollment). No CAC score produced a risk equivalent to high-risk FOURIER subgroups, particularly those with symptomatic peripheral arterial disease and/or multivessel coronary heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: Primary prevention individuals with increased CAC burden may have annualized ASCVD mortality rates equivalent to persons with stable secondary prevention-level risk. These findings argue for a risk continuum between higher risk primary prevention and stable secondary prevention patients, as their ASCVD risks may overlap.

Trends in characteristics and outcomes among US adults hospitalised with COVID-19 throughout 2020: an observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the temporal patterns of patient characteristics, treatments used and outcomes associated with COVID-19 in patients who were hospitalised for the disease between January and 15 November 2020. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: COVID-19 subset of the Optum deidentified electronic health records, including more than 1.8 million patients from across the USA. PARTICIPANTS: There were 51 510 hospitalised patients who met the COVID-19 definition, with 37 617 in the laboratory positive cohort and 13 893 in the clinical cohort. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident acute clinical outcomes, including in-hospital all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Respectively, 48% and 49% of the laboratory positive and clinical cohorts were women. The 50- 65 age group was the median age group for both cohorts. The use of antivirals and dexamethasone increased over time, fivefold and twofold, respectively, while the use of hydroxychloroquine declined by 98%. Among adult patients in the laboratory positive cohort, absolute age/sex standardised incidence proportion for in-hospital death changed by -0.036 per month (95% CI -0.042 to -0.031) from March to June 2020, but remained fairly flat from June to November, 2020 (0.001 (95% CI -0.001 to 0.003), 17.5% (660 deaths /3986 persons) in March and 10.2% (580/5137) in October); in the clinical cohort, the corresponding changes were -0.024 (95% CI -0.032 to -0.015) and 0.011 (95% CI 0.007 0.014), respectively (14.8% (175/1252) in March, 15.3% (189/1203) in October). Declines in the cumulative incidence of most acute clinical outcomes were observed in the laboratory positive cohort, but not for the clinical cohort. CONCLUSION: The incidence of adverse clinical outcomes remains high among COVID-19 patients with clinical diagnosis only. Patients with COVID-19 entering the hospital are at elevated risk of adverse outcomes.

Ultra slow acoustic energy transport in dense fish aggregates.

A dramatic slowing down of acoustic wave transport in dense fish shoals is observed in open-sea fish cages. By employing a multi-beam ultrasonic antenna, we observe the coherent backscattering phenomenon. We extract key parameters of wave transport such as the transport mean free path and the energy transport velocity of diffusive waves from diffusion theory fits to the experimental data. The energy transport velocity is found to be about 10 times smaller than the speed of sound in water, a value that is exceptionally low compared with most observations in acoustics. By studying different models of the fish body, we explain the basic mechanism responsible for the observed very slow transport of ultrasonic waves in dense fish shoals. Our results show that, while the fish swim bladder plays an important role in wave scattering, other organs have to be considered to explain ultra-low energy transport velocities.

Derivation of a Coronary Age Calculator Using Traditional Risk Factors and Coronary Artery Calcium: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Background The optimal method for communicating coronary heart disease (CHD) risk to individual patients is not yet clear. Recent research supports the concept of "coronary age" for more effective risk communication. We defined an individual's coronary age as the age at which an average healthy individual would have an equivalent estimated CHD risk as that calculated for the index individual, building on our previously validated MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) 10-year CHD Risk Score equations with and without coronary artery calcium (CAC). Methods and Results We derived a coronary age by (1) calculating the MESA 10-year CHD risk; (2) mathematically setting this equal to an equation describing risk of an average healthy MESA participant, as a function of age; and (3) solving for age. The risk discrimination of the resultant coronary age was compared with that of chronological age, the MESA CHD Risk Score, and CAC alone. Approximately 95% of coronary age values ranged from 30 years less to 30 years higher than chronological age. Although the mean chronological age of individuals experiencing CHD events compared with those free of events was 67.4 versus 61.8 years, the difference in coronary age including CAC was larger (80.6 versus 62.8 years). Coronary age with CAC had identical predictive ability to that of MESA CHD Risk Score and outperformed chronological age and CAC alone. Conclusions The newly derived coronary age is a convenient transformation of MESA CHD Risk, retaining very good risk discrimination. This easy-to-communicate tool will be available for patients and clinicians, potentially facilitating risk communication in routine care.

Plasma vitamin B(6) and risk of myocardial infarction in women.

BACKGROUND: We prospectively evaluated the relationships between fasting plasma levels of vitamin B(6), as pyridoxal phosphate, and subsequent myocardial infarction risk in women. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among 32 826 women who provided blood samples between 1989 and 1990 (27% of the original 1976 cohort), 239 were diagnosed with incident myocardial infarction (fatal and nonfatal) after blood collection but before July 1998. Of these women, 144 had provided a sample after fasting >10 hours. Cases were matched 1:2 by age, cigarette smoking status, and month of and fasting status at the time of blood collection with controls from the same cohort. Conditional logistic regression was used to adjust for potential confounders, including traditional coronary risk factors, anthropometric factors, dietary intake, and selected biomarkers. Median age at blood collection was 63 years. Plasma levels of pyridoxal phosphate were inversely associated with risk of myocardial infarction; the multivariable-adjusted rate ratio for the highest compared with the lowest quartiles (>70 versus <27.9 pmol/mL) was 0.22 (95% confidence interval, 0.09 to 0.55; P for trend=0.05). The association varied by age: among women who were <60 years of age at blood sampling, the rate ratio comparing the highest and lowest quartiles was 0.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.004 to 0.61), whereas among older women, the corresponding rate ratio was 0.36 (95% confidence interval, 0.13 to 1.02). CONCLUSIONS: Fasting plasma concentration of pyridoxal phosphate was inversely associated with myocardial infarction risk, an effect that was in part independent of dietary B(6) intake. In addition to dietary vitamin B(6) intake, there are other determinants of plasma vitamin B(6) status, and these factors warrant further research.

Plasma total cysteine and total homocysteine and risk of myocardial infarction in women: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Cysteine is a glutathione precursor, but is also a homocysteine byproduct. We prospectively evaluated relationships between fasting plasma concentrations of total cysteine and total homocysteine, and subsequent myocardial infarction (MI) in women. METHODS: Among 32,826 women who provided blood samples between 1989 and 1990, 239 were diagnosed with incident MI after blood collection, but before July 1998. Of these women, 144 had provided a postfast sample. We matched controls to cases 2:1 by age, cigarette smoking status, and month and fasting status at the time of blood collection. We used conditional logistic regression to adjust for confounding. RESULTS: Fasting total cysteine was positively related to MI risk in matching factor-adjusted analyses (rate ratio [RR] for highest vs lowest quartile 3.50 [95% CI 1.44-8.52]). However, after controlling for conventional risk factors of MI, it was not independently associated with risk (RR for highest vs lowest quartile 1.32 [95% CI 0.42-4.12, P trend = .10]). Fasting homocysteine was positively associated with MI risk; the multivariable adjusted RR for the highest versus the lowest quartile was 3.37 (95% CI 1.30-8.70, P trend = .014). CONCLUSIONS: Fasting plasma concentration of total homocysteine, but not total cysteine, was positively associated with MI risk.