The effect of mobility reductions on infection growth is quadratic in many cases.

Stay-at-home orders were introduced in many countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, limiting the time people spent outside their home and the attendance of gatherings. In this study, we argue from a theoretical model that in many cases the effect of such stay-at-home orders on incidence growth should be quadratic, and that this statement should also hold beyond COVID-19. That is, a reduction of the out-of-home duration to, say, 70% of its original value should reduce incidence growth and thus the effective R-value to 70 % · 70 % = 49 % of its original value. We then show that this hypothesis can be substantiated from data acquired during the COVID-19 pandemic by using a multiple regression model to fit a combination of the quadratic out-of-home duration and temperature to the COVID-19 growth multiplier. We finally demonstrate that many other models, when brought to the same scale, give similar reductions of the effective R-value, but that none of these models extend plausibly to an out-of-home duration of zero.

Clinical Effectiveness of Ritonavir-Boosted Nirmatrelvir-A Literature Review.

Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir is an oral treatment for mild to moderate COVID-19 cases with a high risk for a severe course of the disease. For this paper, a comprehensive literature review was performed, leading to a summary of currently available data on Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir's ability to reduce the risk of progressing to a severe disease state. Herein, the focus lies on publications that include comparisons between patients receiving Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir and a control group. The findings can be summarized as follows: Data from the time when the Delta-variant was dominant show that Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 88.9% for unvaccinated, non-hospitalized high-risk individuals. Data from the time when the Omicron variant was dominant found decreased relative risk reductions for various vaccination statuses: between 26% and 65% for hospitalization. The presented papers that differentiate between unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals agree that unvaccinated patients benefit more from treatment with Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir. However, when it comes to the dependency of potential on age and comorbidities, further studies are necessary. From the available data, one can conclude that Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir cannot substitute vaccinations; however, its low manufacturing cost and easy administration make it a valuable tool in fighting COVID-19, especially for countries with low vaccination rates.

Characterising information gains and losses when collecting multiple epidemic model outputs.

BACKGROUND: Collaborative comparisons and combinations of epidemic models are used as policy-relevant evidence during epidemic outbreaks. In the process of collecting multiple model projections, such collaborations may gain or lose relevant information. Typically, modellers contribute a probabilistic summary at each time-step. We compared this to directly collecting simulated trajectories. We aimed to explore information on key epidemic quantities; ensemble uncertainty; and performance against data, investigating potential to continuously gain information from a single cross-sectional collection of model results. METHODS: We compared projections from the European COVID-19 Scenario Modelling Hub. Five teams modelled incidence in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain. We compared July 2022 projections by incidence, peaks, and cumulative totals. We created a probabilistic ensemble drawn from all trajectories, and compared to ensembles from a median across each model's quantiles, or a linear opinion pool. We measured the predictive accuracy of individual trajectories against observations, using this in a weighted ensemble. We repeated this sequentially against increasing weeks of observed data. We evaluated these ensembles to reflect performance with varying observed data. RESULTS: By collecting modelled trajectories, we showed policy-relevant epidemic characteristics. Trajectories contained a right-skewed distribution well represented by an ensemble of trajectories or a linear opinion pool, but not models' quantile intervals. Ensembles weighted by performance typically retained the range of plausible incidence over time, and in some cases narrowed this by excluding some epidemic shapes. CONCLUSIONS: We observed several information gains from collecting modelled trajectories rather than quantile distributions, including potential for continuously updated information from a single model collection. The value of information gains and losses may vary with each collaborative effort's aims, depending on the needs of projection users. Understanding the differing information potential of methods to collect model projections can support the accuracy, sustainability, and communication of collaborative infectious disease modelling efforts.

Explicit modeling of antibody levels for infectious disease simulations in the context of SARS-CoV-2.

Measurable levels of immunoglobulin G antibodies develop after infections with and vaccinations against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). These antibody levels are dynamic: due to waning, antibody levels will drop over time. During the COVID-19 pandemic, multiple models predicting infection dynamics were used by policymakers to support the planning of public health policies. Explicitly integrating antibody and waning effects into the models is crucial for reliable calculations of individual infection risk. However, only few approaches have been suggested that explicitly treat these effects. This paper presents a methodology that explicitly models antibody levels and the resulting protection against infection for individuals within an agent-based model. The model was developed in response to the complexity of different immunization sequences and types and is based on neutralization titer studies. This approach allows complex population studies with explicit antibody and waning effects. We demonstrate the usefulness of our model in two use cases.