Further decompensation in cirrhosis: Results of a large multicenter cohort study supporting Baveno VII statements.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The prognostic weight of further decompensation in cirrhosis is still unclear. We investigated the incidence of further decompensation and its effect on mortality in patients with cirrhosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Multicenter cohort study. The cumulative incidence of further decompensation (development of a second event or complication of a decompensating event) was assessed using competing risks analysis in 2028 patients. A 4-state model was built: first decompensation, further decompensation, liver transplant, and death. A cause-specific Cox model was used to assess the adjusted effect of further decompensation on mortality. Sensitivity analyses were performed for patients included before or after 1999. In a mean follow-up of 43 months, 1192 patients developed further decompensation and 649 died. Corresponding 5-year cumulative incidences were 52% and 35%, respectively. The cumulative incidences of death and liver transplant after further decompensation were 55% and 9.7%, respectively. The most common further decompensating event was ascites/complications of ascites. Five-year probabilities of state occupation were 24% alive with first decompensation, 21% alive with further decompensation, 7% alive with a liver transplant, 16% dead after first decompensation without further decompensation, 31% dead after further decompensation, and <1% dead after liver transplant. The HR for death after further decompensation, adjusted for known prognostic indicators, was 1.46 (95% CI: 1.23-1.71) ( p <0.001). The significant impact of further decompensation on survival was confirmed in patients included before or after 1999. CONCLUSIONS: In cirrhosis, further decompensation occurs in ~60% of patients, significantly increases mortality, and should be considered a more advanced stage of decompensated cirrhosis.

Clinical states of cirrhosis and competing risks.

The clinical course of cirrhosis is mostly determined by the progressive increase of portal hypertension, hyperdynamic circulation, bacterial translocation and activation of systemic inflammation. Different disease states, encompassing compensated and decompensated cirrhosis and a late decompensated state, are related to the progression of these mechanisms and may be recognised by haemodynamic or clinical characteristics. While these disease states do not follow a predictable sequence, they correspond to varying mortality risk. Acute-on-chronic liver failure may occur either in decompensated or in compensated cirrhosis and is always associated with a high short-term mortality. The increasing severity of these disease states prompted the concept of clinical states of cirrhosis. A multistate approach has been considered to describe the clinical course of the disease. Such an approach requires the assessment of the probabilities of different outcomes in each state, which compete with each other to occur first and mark the transition towards a different state. This requires the use of competing risks analysis, since the traditional Kaplan-Meier analysis should only be used in two-state settings. Accounting for competing risks also has implications for prognosis and treatment efficacy research. The aim of this review is to summarise relevant clinical states and to show examples of competing risks analysis in multistate models of cirrhosis.

[Causes of hospitalisation of migrants arrived in Lampedusa (Southern Italy) from January 2011 to June 2014]. / Le cause di ricovero in ospedale dei migranti approdati a Lampedusa da gennaio 2011 a giugno 2014.

This is the synthesis of a study on admissions of migrants to hospitals in Sicily, from January 2011 to June 2014. Migrants arrived in Lampedusa were 49,000 in 2011; 4,000 in 2012; 15,000 in 2013; 6,000 in 2014; 378 patients requiring hospitalization were transported exclusively by the 118 Helicopter Emergency Medical Service in 6 Sicilian hospitals: 203 in 2011, 62 in 2012, 95 in 2013, 18 in 2014. The mean age was 25 years; more frequent areas of provenance were Horn of Africa, North Africa, Syria, and Nigeria. Women were hospitalised almost exclusively for obstetric-gynaecological problems, with a high prevalence of abortions (17/140 pregnancies) secondary to the long journey; men were hospitalised especially for bone fractures, burns, dehydration, infectious diseases, suicide attempts, and, recently, for CO poisoning of people locked in the holds of boats. Infectious diseases were mainly due to respiratory and intestinal distress, 20 people had tuberculosis (TB), 3 had HIV and 1 had malaria. No suspicious of Ebola virus infection was registered. The causes of hospitalisation do not depend on the nationality of patients and are constant over the years. Infectious diffusible diseases, mainly TB, are more common than in the Italian population, and consequently the best surveillance systems, aimed at identifying and treating patients immediately, should be activated. Mare Nostrum Operation helped migrants while they are in sea and allowed the reduction of serious health problems, mainly related to the hardships and duration of the journey, and also anticipating arrivals directly in Lampedusa, permitting a more efficient organisation of the relief in the sea.

MTHFR C677TT, PAI1 4G-4G, V Leiden Q506, and prothrombin G20210A in hepatocellular carcinoma with and without portal vein thrombosis.

We studied thrombophilic genetic factors (TGFs) MTHFR C677TT, PAI1 4G-4G, V Leiden Q506, prothrombin G20210A as risk factors in 94 patients with HCC with and without portal vein thrombosis (PVT), compared with 214 patients with liver cirrhosis (LC) with and without PVT and 94 healthy controls (HC). The OR (95% CI) for MTHFR C677TT with HCC was 3.85 (1.55-7.39) vs. HC. The OR for PAI1 4G-4G in HCC, was 2.87 (1.27-6.55) vs. HC. Also prothrombin G20210A was significantly more frequent among HCC, mainly in patients with PVT, while V Leiden factor was equally distributed among HCC and HC. Differences were more significant in patients with associated PVT. These findings suggest that frequently TGFs are needed for patients to be at risk of HCC and PVT. We conclude that in all patients with chronic liver disease TGF screening should be performed to individuate patients at risk of HCC and PVT.

New concepts on the clinical course and stratification of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis.

The clinical course of cirrhosis has been typically described by a compensated and a decompensated state based on the absence or, respectively, the presence of any of bleeding, ascites, encephalopathy or jaundice. More recently, it has been recognized that increasing portal hypertension and several major clinical events are followed by a marked worsening in prognosis, and disease states have been proposed accordingly in a multistate model. The development of multistate models implies the assessment of the probabilities of more than one possible outcome from each disease state. This requires the use of competing risks analysis which investigates the risk of several competing outcomes. In such a situation, the Kaplan-Meier risk estimates and the Cox regression may be not appropriate. Clinical states of cirrhosis presently considered as suitable for a comprehensive multistate model include: in compensated cirrhosis, early (mild) portal hypertension with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) >5 and <10 mmHg, clinically significant portal hypertension (HVPG ≥ 10 mmHg) without gastro-esophageal varices (GEV), and GEV; in decompensated cirrhosis, a first variceal bleeding without other decompensating events, any first non-bleeding decompensation and any second decompensating event; and in a late decompensation state, refractory ascites, sepsis, renal failure, recurrent encephalopathy, profound jaundice, acute on chronic liver failure, all predicting a very short survival. In this review, we illustrate how competing risks analysis and multistate models may be applied to cirrhosis.

PAI-1 4G-4G, MTHFR 677TT, V Leiden 506Q, and Prothrombin 20210A in Splanchnic Vein Thrombosis: Analysis of Individual Patient Data From Three Prospective Studies.

BACKGROUND: There are no univocal opinions on the role of genetic thrombophilia on splanchnic vein thrombosis (SVT). We defined genetic thrombophilia the presence of one of these thrombophilic genetic factors (THRGFs): PAI-1 4G-4G, MTHFR 677TT, V Leiden 506Q, and prothrombin 20210A. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the frequencies of these THRGFs in SVT patients, we analyzed individual data of 482 Caucasian patients, recruited from 2000 to 2014 in three prospective studies. SVT was defined as the presence of thrombosis of portal (PVT), mesenteric (MVT), splenic (SPVT), cava (CT), and hepatic vein (Budd Chiari syndrome, BCS). Pre-hepatic SVT (pre-HSVT) was defined as PVT with or without MVT/SPVT, without BCS. Post-hepatic SVT (post-HSVT) was BCS with or without PVT/MVT/SPVT. METHODS: We compared 350 patients with liver cirrhosis (LC), 47 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), 37 myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN), 38 associated disease (AD), 10 without any associated disease (WAD), vs 150 healthy controls (HC); 437 patients showed pre-HSVT and 45 post-HSVT. RESULTS: Thrombophilia was present in 294/482 (60.9%) patients: 189/350 LC (54.0%), 31/47 (66.0%) HCC, 29/39 (74.4%) MPN, 35/38 AD (92.1%), and 10/10 (100%) WAD, and 54/150 (36.0%) in HC. In the total group, we found 175 PAI-1 4G-4G, 130 MTHFR 677TT, 42V Leiden 506Q, and 27 prothrombin 20210A; 75 patients showed presence of >1 TRHGF; the more frequent association was PAI-1 4G-4G/MTHFR 677TT, in 36 patients. PAI-1 4G-4G and MTHFR 677TT were significantly more frequent in patients with SVT (P values <0.005), whereas V Leiden Q506 and prothrombin G20210A were not. PAI-1 4G-4G and MTHFR 677TT distributions deviated significantly from that expected from a population in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Thrombophilia was significantly less frequent in patients with pre-HSVT (250/437, 57.2%) than in patients with post-HSVT (44/45, 97.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows the significant prevalence of PAI-1 4G-4G and MTHFR 677TT in SVT, mainly in post-HSVT.