Short-term changes in social role statuses across young adulthood and their relation to heavy drinking in a given month.

Young adulthood is a developmental period during which individuals experience shifts in their social roles in various domains, which coincides with a period of time that is also high risk for lifetime peaks in alcohol use. The current study examined age-related changes in heavy episodic drinking (HED) and high-intensity drinking (HID) and associations with short-term (i.e., monthly) variation in young adults' social roles over a 2.5-year period in a community sample of young adults who reported past-year alcohol use (N = 778, baseline age range 18-23). Results showed probabilities of past-month HED and HID changed in a nonlinear fashion across ages 18-26 with greater probabilities of use at younger ages. Most participants did not report being in the same social role status every sampled month, underscoring the presence of short-term role variation. Living with parents and being in a serious romantic relationship in a given month were negatively associated with past-month HED. Living with parents in a given month was also negatively associated with past-month HID. Being a 4-year college student and being employed full-time in a given month were not significantly related to either outcome. Findings provided partial evidence that monthly statuses were associated with heavy drinking. Several avenues for future research are described in light of the findings.

An example of implementing a safety protocol in remote intervention and survey research with college students.

INTRODUCTION: This article draws attention to the need for open evaluation and reporting on safety protocols in survey and intervention research. We describe a protocol for responding to those who indicate increased risk of self-harm (i.e. suicidality or potentially lethal alcohol use) as an example and report on the outcome of our procedures. METHODS: Participants were first-year college students (n = 891) participating in an intervention trial for binge drinking. We describe the protocol, provide descriptive outcomes, and examine whether participant sex, attrition, or study intervention condition were related to endorsing items that indicated risk for suicidality or potentially lethal alcohol use. RESULTS: Of the 891 participants, 167 (18.7%) were identified as being at risk in one or more study wave. Of those, we were able to successfully contact 100 (59.9%), 76 (45.5%) by phone, and 24 (14.4%) by email. Of those 100, 78 accepted mental health resources as a result of outreach. Participant sex, attrition, and intervention condition were not related to risk. DISCUSSION: This article may aid other research teams in developing similar protocols. Strategies to reach an even greater proportion of high-risk participants are needed. A body of literature documenting published safety protocols in research and the associated outcomes would help to identify opportunities for improvement.

Age 18-30 trajectories of binge drinking frequency and prevalence across the past 30 years for men and women: Delineating when and why historical trends reversed across age.

Historical analyses based on US data indicate that recent cohorts engage in lower binge drinking at age 18 relative to past cohorts, but by the mid- to late-20s the reverse is true: recent cohorts engage in higher binge drinking relative to past cohorts. We pinpoint when - both developmentally and historically - this reversal manifested, examine possible reasons for this reversal, and examine sex convergence in these developmental and historical patterns. As part of the US national Monitoring the Future Study, over 75,000 youths from the high school classes of 1976-2006 were surveyed biennially between ages 18 and 30. We found that the reversal primarily manifested between ages 18 and 24 for men and 18 and 22 for women. We also found that the reversal emerged gradually across the last three decades, suggesting it is the result of a broad and durable historical shift. Our findings indicated that historical variation in social roles and minimum legal drinking age collectively accounted for only a modest amount of the reversal, although marriage was the most influential among the factors examined here. Finally, we found evidence that sex convergence in binge drinking was developmentally limited and far more pronounced at the beginning of the transition to adulthood.

The Protective Role of Perceived Control on Associations Between Job Loss, Financial Difficulties, and Substance Use Among Young Adults Early in the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Adverse life events that threaten normative transitions are associated with increased alcohol and cannabis use among young adults. However, few studies have tested the extent to which specific negative events impact substance use behaviors nor identified relevant risk or protective factors (e.g., perceived control). During the COVID-19 pandemic, young adults experienced economic adversities (i.e., job loss and financial strain) at disproportionally high rates. This provided a unique opportunity to test associations between job loss/financial difficulties and substance use outcomes and whether perceived control in work and finance domains moderated these associations. Young adults completed self-report surveys at two time points-prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (January 2020) and in the acute phase of the pandemic (April/May 2020). Participants (N = 519; Mage = 25.4 years; 62.8% female) were recruited in and around Seattle, WA, as part of an ongoing longitudinal cohort study. Pandemic-related job loss (18.9%) and financial difficulty (49.7%) were relatively common in this sample. Job loss was associated with increased number of drinks on the heaviest past-month drinking occasion (from January 2020 to April/May 2020). Financial difficulty was associated with increased drinking frequency and number of drinks on the heaviest drinking occasion. The effect of job loss and financial difficulty on alcohol and cannabis use was generally moderated by participants' perceived control of these domains. For those with low perceived control, job loss/financial difficulty was associated with increased alcohol/cannabis use, but for those high in perceived control, job loss/financial difficulty was associated with decreased alcohol use frequency. Findings give advance understanding of how economic adversities relate to young adults' alcohol and cannabis use. Notably, perceived control over these domains may be modifiable through prevention efforts aiming to foster self-efficacy among young people and policy to provide available agency to those in need.

Age- and Sex-Varying Associations Between Depressive Symptoms and Substance Use from Modal Ages 35 to 55 in a National Sample of U.S. Adults.

It is important to examine normative age-related change in substance use risk factors across the lifespan, with research focusing on middle adulthood particularly needed. The current study examined time-varying associations between depressive symptoms and alcohol, cigarette, and marijuana use from modal ages 35 to 55 in a national sample of US adults, overall and by sex. Data were obtained from 11,147 individuals in the longitudinal Monitoring the Future study. Participants were in 12th grade (modal age 18) in 1976-1982 and (for the data reported in this study) were surveyed again at modal ages 35 (in 1993-1999), 40, 45, 50, and 55 (in 2013-2019). Weighted time-varying effect modeling was used to examine age-related change in associations among depressive symptoms, any and heavy use of cigarettes, alcohol, and marijuana. Across midlife, greater depressive symptoms were associated with decreased odds of any alcohol use during the 40 s and 50 s, but with increased odds of binge drinking from ages 35-40, and-at most ages-any and pack + cigarette use and any and frequent marijuana use. The association between depressive symptoms and substance use was generally similar for men and women. Results highlight the increased risk for binge drinking, smoking, and marijuana with higher levels of depressive symptoms and underscore the importance of screening and interventions for depressive symptoms and substance use in midlife.

Alcohol Use Disorder Symptoms Reported during Midlife: Results from the Monitoring the Future Study among US Adults at Modal Ages 50, 55, and 60.

BACKGROUND: The extent to which adolescent substance use is associated with alcohol use disorder (AUD) symptoms in midlife is not yet fully explored. METHODS: Longitudinal data from the national Monitoring the Future study was used. The sample included 11,830 12th graders (1976-1987) who were surveyed again at modal ages 50 (37.8%), 55 (46.3%), or 60 (15.8%) in 2008-2019. Approximately 48.7% were male; 81.5% identified as non-Hispanic White. Weighted logistic and multinomial logistic regressions were used to examine associations between past 30-day use of cigarettes, marijuana, and alcohol at age 18, sociodemographics, and a midlife AUD symptom outcome (coded as non-drinking, drinking without AUD [endorsed ≤1 criterion], or AUD symptoms [endorsed 2+ criteria]). RESULTS: Prevalence of midlife AUD symptoms was 27.1%. Higher relative risk of reporting AUD symptoms (vs. drinking without AUD) was associated with age 18 substance use (any cigarette use [vs. no use], any marijuana use [vs. no use], binge drinking [vs. both no use and drinking at less than binge levels]), being male (vs. female), being non-Hispanic White (vs. non-Hispanic Black), and having a 4-year college degree. Higher relative risk of reporting non-drinking (vs. drinking without AUD) was associated with no 30-day alcohol use at age 18, being non-Hispanic Black or non-Hispanic other (vs. non-Hispanic White), and not having a 4-year college degree. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest substance use at age 18 has meaningful associations with midlife AUD symptoms. Dissemination of prevention and intervention efforts in adolescence and early adulthood may be important for reducing hazardous midlife drinking.

Increased nicotine vaping due to the COVID-19 pandemic among US young adults: Associations with nicotine dependence, vaping frequency, and reasons for use.

Previous research has not examined increased vaping because of the pandemic using a national sample of young adults (YAs), which is a critical gap because pandemic-related increases in vaping among YAs could have important implications for nicotine dependence, prolonged regular use, and using substances to cope with stress. We examined self-reported increased vaping attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic among YAs, and its associations with outcomes that have important implications for future nicotine use. Data came from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) Vaping Supplement. Participants were selected from a nationally representative sample of US 12th-graders who were surveyed at age 19 in fall 2020 (N = 1244). Cross-sectional analyses of the 2020 survey included YAs who vaped nicotine in the past year (35%; N = 440). Weighted descriptive analyses and logistic regression models examined self-reported pandemic-related increased vaping (vs. decreased vaping, or no change), and its associations with current nicotine dependence, vaping behavior, and reasons for vaping. Among YAs who vaped nicotine in the past year, 16.8% reported increased and 44.4% reported decreased vaping due to the pandemic, while 38.9% reported no change. Increased vaping (vs. decreased and/or no change) was significantly associated with nicotine dependence symptoms, current regular nicotine vaping, and vaping to relax, get high, and because of boredom. Self-reported increased vaping because of the pandemic was associated with increased risk for current nicotine dependence and frequent use. Increased vaping may have been a form of coping with pandemic-related stressors, which increases risk for future substance use problems.

Depressive and anxious symptoms among young adults in the COVID-19 pandemic: Results from monitoring the future.

PURPOSE: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic is associated with worsening mental health among young adults, but further research is necessary to quantify the associations with depression and anxiety. METHODS: Using Monitoring the Future data (N = 1244 young adults, modal age: 19, Fall 2020 supplement), we examined internalizing symptoms (Patient Health Questionnaire-8 and Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale-7 separately), dividing the sample into those without clinically significant scores, significant scores but minimal pandemic-attributed symptoms, and significant scores with substantial pandemic-attributed symptoms. Logistic regression analyses linked demographic factors, pandemic-related experiences, and coping methods to symptom groups. RESULTS: Internalizing symptoms were highly prevalent, with many occurring among a majority at least several days over the past 2 weeks. Major changes in education, employment, and resource availability predicted elevated symptom risk (e.g., lacking a place to sleep or money for rent, gas, or food led to 4.43 [95% confidence interval: 2.59-7.55] times the risk of high depressive symptoms significantly attributed to the pandemic). High internalizing symptoms were linked to underutilization of healthy coping behaviors, substance use overutilization, and dietary changes. High depressive and anxious symptoms attributed to the pandemic were marked by high levels of taking breaks from the news/social media and contacting healthcare providers. CONCLUSIONS: The pandemic's associations with young adults' depressive and anxious symptoms warrants urgent attention through improved mental health treatment infrastructure and stronger structural support.

Impact of the Tips From Former Smokers Anti-Smoking Media Campaign on Youth Smoking Behaviors and Anti-Tobacco Attitudes.

INTRODUCTION: Anti-tobacco media campaigns can prevent youth smoking, but there is little research on how adult-targeted campaigns affect youth. We investigated the association between the Tips From Former Smokers (Tips) campaign and youth smoking behaviors and anti-tobacco attitudes, and variation by sex, race and/or ethnicity, or socioeconomic status. AIMS AND METHODS: We used data from the monitoring of the future study, a nationally representative survey on 8th, 10th, and 12th graders, from 2013-2015. Quartiles of Tips gross rating points (GRPs) were used to estimate exposure. Youth smoking behavior outcomes included smoking prevalence, initiation, and susceptibility. The anti-tobacco attitude outcomes included the extent that anti-tobacco ads made participants (1) less favorable towards smoking or (2) less likely to smoke cigarettes. Modified Poisson regression models estimated average marginal effects; separate additive interactions between Tips GRP exposure and sex, race and/or ethnicity, parents' highest education, and college plans (12th graders only) were used to test for effect modification. RESULTS: Tips GRPs were not associated with smoking behaviors within any grade. However, 12th graders in the highest quartile of Tips had a 7.0 percentage point higher probability (95% CI = 0.023-0.116) of responding that anti-tobacco ads made them less likely to smoke. Tips GRPs were associated with a lower probability of past 30-day smoking prevalence among 10th grade females, but not males (joint P-value = .002). No additional statistically significant interactions were found for any other outcomes for any grade. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed the potential for adult-targeted campaigns to increase youth's anti-smoking attitudes, but campaign exposure was not associated with smoking behaviors. IMPLICATIONS: Few studies have examined the potential for anti-smoking media campaigns to influence audiences outside their targeted audience. In this study, we show the potential for adult-targeted campaigns to impact youth and suggest that Tips exposure may promote anti-smoking attitudes among youth.

Cigarette Pack Price and Its Within-Person Association With Smoking Initiation, Smoking Progression, and Disparities among Young Adults.

BACKGROUND: There is a dearth of research on within-person relationships between tobacco price and cigarette smoking initiation and progression in young adulthood. This project examines the within-person association between cigarette pack price and smoking initiation and progression between age 18 and 21/22, focusing on differences across subgroups. METHODS: Data came from the longitudinal Monitoring the Future (MTF) project. MTF examines drug use behaviors with nationally representative samples of 12th graders annually. Subsamples of 12th graders are annually selected and followed longitudinally. Among 12th graders from baseline years 2000-2014, we examined past 30-day cigarette smoking initiation among baseline never smokers (N = 15 280) and progression to daily smoking among youth who were not daily smokers at baseline (N = 26 998). We used hierarchical logistic regression and interaction terms to assess differences across sex, race/ethnicity, and parental education. RESULTS: The within-person relationship between pack price and smoking indicated that a one-dollar increase in pack price corresponded with a 72% decrease in the odds of initiation (AOR = 0.28, 95% CI = 0.18, 0.44) and 70% decrease in the odds of progression to daily smoking (AOR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.21, 0.44). There was a linear age trend for both smoking initiation and progression. There were no statistically significant interactions between price and demographics, making it difficult to disentangle differences across subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to increased cigarette prices during young adulthood was associated with lower odds of cigarette smoking initiation and progression. Additional policies and programs beyond cigarettes prices could help reduce tobacco-related disparities in smoking initiation and progression among young adults. IMPLICATIONS: There is a strong, within-person relationship between cigarette prices and smoking initiation and progression during the transition to young adulthood: higher prices are associated with decreased odds of both initiation and progression. Cigarette taxation can help to prevent smoking initiation and progression among youth, but it is less clear how taxes are associated with disparities in smoking experienced by certain subgroups. We could not draw definitive conclusions about the impact of cigarette prices on tobacco-related disparities. Tobacco taxes should be increased on a regular basis to ensure young adults experience within-person increases in prices, and complementary programs geared toward reducing tobacco-related disparities among young adults should be promoted.

Examining Truth and State-Sponsored Media Campaigns as a Means of Decreasing Youth Smoking and Related Disparities in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: To analyze the impact of Truth and state-sponsored anti-tobacco media campaigns on youth smoking in the United States, and their potential to reduce tobacco-related health disparities. AIMS AND METHODS: Our study included data from the 2000-2015 Monitoring the Future study, an annual nationally representative survey of youth in 8th (n = 201 913), 10th (n = 194 468), and 12th grades (n = 178 379). Our primary exposure was Gross Rating Points (GRPs) of Truth or state-sponsored anti-tobacco advertisements, from Nielsen Media Research. Modified Poisson regression was used to assess the impact of a respondent's GRPs on smoking intentions, past 30-day smoking participation, and first and daily smoking initiation. Additive interactions with sex, parental education, college plans, and race/ethnicity were used to test for differential effects of campaign exposure on each outcome. RESULTS: Greater campaign exposure (80th vs. 20th GRP percentile) was associated with lower probabilities of smoking intentions among 8th graders, smoking participation among 8th and 12th graders, and initiation among 8th graders. Greater exposure was associated with a greater reduction in the likelihood of smoking participation among 10th and 12th grade males than females; 10th and 12th graders with parents of lower education versus those with a college degree; and 12th graders who did not definitely plan to go to college relative to those who did. CONCLUSIONS: Media campaign exposure was associated with a lower likelihood of youth smoking behaviors. Associations were more pronounced for groups disproportionately affected by smoking, including youth of lower socioeconomic status. Media campaigns may be useful in reducing smoking disparities and improving health equity. IMPLICATIONS: Few recent studies have investigated the impact of anti-tobacco media campaigns on youth smoking and their potential to reduce tobacco-related health disparities in the United States. We found media campaigns-specifically state-sponsored media campaigns-reduced the likelihood of several smoking outcomes among youth, with some evidence that they mitigate disparities for disproportionately affected groups.

Sex in the Context of Substance Use: A Study of Perceived Benefits and Risks, Boundaries, and Behaviors among Adolescents Participating in an Internet-Based Intervention.

Little research has examined adolescents' perspectives of sex with substance use. This study examined (1) adolescents' perceived benefits and risks of sex with substance use, as well as boundaries; (2) the potential for positive and negative social influences among adolescents when they discuss these topics; and (3) whether exposure to health-promoting content is associated with trajectories of sex with substance use over a 6-month period. To address the first two objectives, 176 comments were analyzed from 71 adolescents (90% female) aged 14-18 years who participated in an Internet-based sexual health promotion intervention and posted to at least one message board addressing sex with substance use. Adolescents' perceived benefits and risks of sex with substance use primarily reflected concern for the experience of sex in the moment; perceived risks and boundaries primarily reflected concern for the ability to develop and maintain meaningful relationships. Comments of 63% and 22% of adolescents, respectively, were evaluated to have potential for health-promoting and risk-promoting social influence. To address the third objective, trajectories of self-reported sex with substance use were compared between 89 intervention and 54 control participants. No significant differences were observed. However, a dose-response effect was observed; intervention participants who completed less than one third of assigned tasks reported increases in sex with alcohol or marijuana use over time, while no marked changes or much smaller changes in sex with substance use were observed among intervention participants who completed one third or more tasks. Implications for prevention and intervention programs are discussed.

Deeply Tailored Adaptive Interventions to Reduce College Student Drinking: a Real-World Application of Q-Learning for SMART Studies.

M-bridge was a sequential multiple assignment randomized trial (SMART) that aimed to develop a resource-efficient adaptive preventive intervention (API) to reduce binge drinking in first-year college students. The main results of M-bridge suggested no difference, on average, in binge drinking between students randomized to APIs versus assessment-only control, but certain elements of the API were beneficial for at-risk subgroups. This paper extends the main results of M-bridge through an exploratory analysis using Q-learning, a novel algorithm from the computer science literature. Specifically, we sought to further tailor the two aspects of the M-bridge APIs to an individual and test whether deep tailoring offers a benefit over assessment-only control. Q-learning is a method to estimate decision rules that assign optimal treatment (i.e., to minimize binge drinking) based on student characteristics. For the first aspect of the M-bridge API (when to offer), we identified the optimal tailoring characteristic post hoc from a set of 20 candidate variables. For the second (how to bridge), we used a known effect modifier from the trial. The results of our analysis are two rules that optimize (1) the timing of universal intervention for each student based on their motives for drinking and (2) the bridging strategy to indicated interventions (i.e., among those who continue to drink heavily mid-semester) based on mid-semester binge drinking frequency. We estimate that this newly tailored API, if offered to all first-year students, would reduce binge drinking by 1 occasion per 2.5 months (95% CI: decrease of 1.45 to 0.28 occasions, p < 0.01) on average. Our analyses demonstrate a real-world implementation of Q-learning for a substantive purpose, and, if replicable in future trials, our results have practical implications for college campuses aiming to reduce student binge drinking.

Drinking Motives and Drinking Consequences across Days: Differences and Similarities between Moderate, Binge, and High-Intensity Drinking.

BACKGROUND: The current study examined the extent to which within-person variation in drinking motives differentiates moderate, binge, and high-intensity drinking; and independent associations of motives and drinking intensity with alcohol use consequences in a sample of young adult drinkers from across the United States. METHODS: Participants were past 30-day drinkers in the U.S. nationally representative Monitoring the Future 12th grade sample in 2018, who also reported alcohol use during a 14-day data collection burst 1 year later (N = 484 people, mean age 19.3 [SD 0.40], 43% female; N = 1042 drinking days) as part of the Young Adult Daily Life Study in 2019. Weighted multilevel modeling estimated within- and between-person associations of drinking motives, drinking intensity (i.e., moderate [women 1-3, men 1-4 drinks], binge [women 4-7, men 5-9 drinks], and high-intensity drinking [women 8+, men 10+ drinks]), and number of positive and negative alcohol consequences. RESULTS: On days participants reported greater enhancement and social motives, they were more likely to engage in high-intensity (vs. binge) drinking and binge (vs. moderate) drinking and experience more positive alcohol consequences. On days participants reported greater enhancement and coping motives, they experienced more negative alcohol consequences. Binge (vs. moderate) drinking on a given day was associated with more positive and negative alcohol consequences; high-intensity (vs. binge) drinking on a given day was associated with more negative alcohol consequences that day. Moderation analyses indicated that social motives were associated with high-intensity (vs. binge) drinking only among college students. CONCLUSIONS: Stronger drinking motives on a given day were associated with drinking intensity (enhancement and social motives) and negative consequences (enhancement and coping). High-intensity (vs. binge or moderate) drinking was associated with more negative consequences but not more positive consequences. These results underscore that high-intensity drinking and consequences vary across days and time-varying, occasion-specific risks such as current motivational context are appropriate targets for intervention.

Consideration of an upper-bound continuous maximum drinks measure for adolescent binge and high-intensity drinking prevalence.

BACKGROUND: The degree to which binge and high-intensity drinking prevalence estimates vary from fixed threshold frequency and continuous maximum drinks measures is unknown. The current study compared prevalence estimates for adolescent binge and high-intensity drinking (5+ drinks, 10+ drinks, respectively) and sex-specific thresholds using fixed threshold frequency and continuous maximum drinks measures. METHODS: Data were obtained from 7911 respondents participating in the 2018 and 2019 nationally representative Monitoring the Future 12th-grade surveys. Comparisons of frequency prevalence (e.g., any occasions of 5+ drinking using the frequency measure) versus maximum drinks prevalence (e.g., reporting 5 or more drinks using the maximum number of drinks measure) were made using all respondents and then separately within males and females. RESULTS: Among the sample overall and within sex, binge drinking estimates from the 5+ frequency prevalence and 5+ maximum drinks prevalence measures evidenced overlapping confidence intervals (estimates were slightly higher for frequency prevalence); similar results were observed for high-intensity drinking 10+ frequency prevalence and 10+ maximum drinks prevalence. For example, among the sample overall, 5+ frequency prevalence was 11.4% [95% CI 10.3, 12.6]; 5+ maximum drinks prevalence was 10.7% [9.6, 11.8]; 10+ frequency prevalence was 5.1% [4.4, 5.8]; and 10+ maximum drinks prevalence was 4.1% [3.5, 4.7]. Using sex-specific thresholds (i.e., 4+ drinks for females and 5+ drinks for males), binge frequency and maximum drinks levels also had overlapping confidence intervals. Binge drinking prevalence estimates for females were approximately 1.5 times higher using sex-specific (4+) versus universal (5+) thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: In this nationally representative sample of 12th-grade students, prevalence levels for 5+ and 10+ drinking did not differ significantly when using frequency versus maximum drinks measures. Among females, binge drinking prevalence was higher using sex-specific versus universal thresholds. Both the frequency and maximum drinks measures provided comparable estimates of binge and high-intensity drinking prevalence among older adolescents.

Forecasting future prevalence and gender differences in binge drinking among young adults through 2040.

BACKGROUND: Binge drinking among adolescents and young adults has changed over time, but patterns differ by age and gender. Identifying high-risk groups to target future efforts at reducing drinking in this population remains a public health priority. Forecasting methods can provide a better understanding of variation and determinants of future binge drinking prevalence. METHODS: We implemented regression-based forecasting models to estimate the prevalence and gender differences in binge drinking among cohort groups of U.S. young adults, ages 18, 23-24, and 29-30 through 2040. Forecasting models were adjusted for covariates accounting for changes in demographic, Big-5 social roles (e.g., residential independence), and drinking norms and related substance use, to understand the drivers of forecasted binge drinking estimates. RESULTS: From the last observed cohort group (years varied by age) through 2040, unadjusted binge drinking prevalence was forecasted to decrease from 26% (95% CI: 20, 33%) (2011-15) to 11% (95% CI: 4, 27%) at age 18, decrease from 38% (95% CI: 30, 45%) (2006-2010) to 34% (95% CI: 18, 55%) at ages 23/24, and increase from 32% (95% CI: 25, 40%) (2001-2005) to 35% (95% CI: 16, 59%) at ages 29/30. Gender-stratified forecasts show a continuation in the narrowing of binge drinking prevalence between young men and women, though the magnitude of narrowing differs by age. Estimated trends were partially explained by changing norms regarding drinking and other substance use, though these indirect effects explained less of the total trend as age increased. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding how covariates influence binge drinking trends can guide public health policies to leverage the most important determinants of future binge drinking to reduce the harm caused by binge drinking from adolescence to adulthood.

Dual trajectories of cannabis and alcohol use among young adults in a state with legal nonmedical cannabis.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the nature of the association between cannabis and alcohol use within individuals over time in the era of legalized cannabis is of crucial importance for assessing the public health consequences of increasing cannabis use. An important unanswered question is whether cannabis and alcohol use substitute for one another. Specifically, is greater use of one substance associated with less use of the other substance (i.e., a negative association) or are the substances complementary and their association positive? METHODS: We used 24 consecutive months of data on a young adult sample (n = 774; 56% female, age 18-25 during the study) who drank alcohol in the year prior to enrollment. The sample was recruited in Washington State in 2015/2016 (after legalization of nonmedical cannabis) using media advertisements and community flyers and outreach. Using parallel process latent growth curve models, we assessed three types of association between cannabis and alcohol use across the 24-month period: (1) an association between average levels of cannabis and alcohol use; (2) an association between rates of change in cannabis and alcohol use; and (3) correlations between shorter-term deviations/fluctuations off of longer-term trajectories of level and change in cannabis and alcohol use. RESULTS: We found a positive association between the average frequency of cannabis and alcohol use; individuals who used cannabis more frequently on average also drank alcohol more frequently on average. Change over time in cannabis use was positively associated with change in alcohol use. There was also a contemporaneous positive association between fluctuations in cannabis and alcohol use. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, we found no evidence of substitution. Rather, the results suggest a complementary relationship between cannabis and alcohol use, such that the use of cannabis and alcohol rises and falls together.

Negative evaluation of role transitions is associated with perceived stress and alcohol consequences: Examination of the Transitions Overload Model in young adulthood using two years of monthly data.

BACKGROUND: Young adulthood is characterized by transitions into and out of social roles in multiple domains. Consistent with self-medication models of alcohol use, the Transitions Overload Model (J Stud Alcohol Suppl, 14, 2002, 54) hypothesizes that one cause of increased alcohol use during young adulthood may be the stress of navigating simultaneous role transitions. This study examined the simultaneous occurrence of major developmental role transitions in the domains of education, employment, romantic relationships, and residential status and their associations with perceived stress, heavy episodic drinking (HED), and negative alcohol-related consequences. Further, we extended the Transitions Overload Model to explore whether the number of transitions rated as having a negative impact on one's life was related to perceived stress, HED, and alcohol-related consequences. METHODS: A community sample of young adult drinkers (N = 767, 57% women, ages 18 to 25 years) in the Pacific Northwest provided monthly data across 2 years. Multilevel models were used to assess the average (between-person) and month-to-month (within-person) associations of role transitions with perceived stress, HED, and negative alcohol-related consequences. RESULTS: Although having more role transitions was positively associated with HED frequency and alcohol-related consequences at both the between- and within-person (monthly) levels, it was not associated with increased stress. The number of transitions rated as having a negative impact on one's life, however, was positively associated with stress. Thus, rather than the total number of transitions, it is the number of negatively perceived major developmental role transitions that is associated with perceived stress and increased risk for negative alcohol-related consequences. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to Transitions Overload Model assumptions, more transitions were not a significant predictor of more perceived stress; rather, the evaluation of the transition as negative was associated with stress and negative alcohol-related outcomes. This distinction may help elucidate the etiology of stress and subsequent alcohol consequences and identify individuals at-risk of these effects.

Taxation reduces smoking but may not reduce smoking disparities in youth.

OBJECTIVE: This study examines the extent to which cigarette taxes affect smoking behaviour and disparities in smoking among adolescents by gender, socioeconomic status (SES) and race/ethnicity. METHODS: We used US nationally representative, repeated cross-sectional data from the 2005 to 2016 Monitoring the Future study to evaluate the relationship between state cigarette taxes and past 30-day current smoking, smoking intensity, and first cigarette and daily smoking initiation using modified Poisson and linear regression models, stratified by grade. We tested for interactions between tax and gender, SES and race/ethnicity on the additive scale using average marginal effects. RESULTS: We found that higher taxes were associated with lower smoking outcomes, with variation by grade. Across nearly all of our specifications, there were no statistically significant interactions between tax and gender, SES or race/ethnicity for any grades/outcomes. One exception is that among 12th graders, there was a statistically significant interaction between tax and college plans, with taxes being associated with a lower probability of 30-day smoking among students who definitely planned to attend college compared with those who did not. CONCLUSION: We conclude that higher taxes were associated with reduced smoking among adolescents, with little difference by gender, SES and racial/ethnicity groups. While effective at reducing adolescent smoking, taxes appear unlikely to reduce smoking disparities among youth.

A Marijuana Consequences Checklist for Young Adults with Implications for Brief Motivational Intervention Research.

Measures assessing marijuana-related consequences or problems experienced by young adults have typically been adapted from measures assessing alcohol consequences. These measures may not fully reflect the specific unwanted or perceived "not so good" effects of marijuana that are experienced by young adults. Thus, using these measures may present a gap, which needs to be addressed, given that reports of consequences are often utilized in brief motivational personalized feedback interventions. Data from three different studies of young adults were used to (1) examine self-reported "not so good" effects or consequences of marijuana use among frequent marijuana-using college students (Study 1), (2) create a new version of a marijuana consequences list and compare it to an existing marijuana consequences measure (Study 2), and (3) assess convergent and divergent validity between a finalized Marijuana Consequences Checklist (MCC, 26-items) and marijuana use and risk for cannabis use disorder (Study 3). The most frequently endorsed self-reported effects of marijuana included the impact on eating (the "munchies"), dry mouth, trouble concentrating, and acting foolish or goofy. Higher scores on the MCC were associated with more frequent use and a higher probability of meeting criteria for cannabis use disorder. The MCC represents a range of negative consequences of marijuana use derived from frequent users' own accounts and includes consequences not assessed by other measures. The MCC captures marijuana-specific negative consequences relevant for young adults, which can be incorporated in brief motivational personalized feedback interventions.