Trends of Diabetes Mortality in Iran at National and Sub-National Levels from 1990 to 2015 and Its Association with Socioeconomic Factors.

Background: Following global commitments to prevent and control non-communicable diseases, we sought to estimate national and sub-national trends in diabetes mortality in Iran and assess its association with socioeconomic factors. Methods: In a systematic analytical study, to assess the correlation between diabetes mortality and socioeconomic factors, we used data obtained from the Death Registration System (DRS), the Spatio-temporal model and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) levels and the diabetes mortality trends, which were estimated by sex, age and year at national and sub-national levels from 1990 to 2015. Results: Between the years 1990 and 2015, the age-standardized diabetes mortality rate (per 100,000) increased from 3.40 (95% UI: 2.33 to 4.99) to 7.72 (95% UI: 5.51 to 10.78) in males and from 4.66 (95% UI: 3.23 to 6.76) to 10.38 (95% UI: 7.54 to 14.23) in females. In 1990, the difference between the highest age-standardized diabetes mortality rate among males was 3.88 times greater than the lowest (5.97 vs. 1.54), and in 2015 this difference was 3.96 times greater (14.65 vs. 3.70). This provincial difference was higher among females and was 5.13 times greater in 1990 (8.41 vs. 1.64) and 5.04 times greater in 2015 (19.87 vs. 3.94). The rate of diabetes mortality rose with urbanization yet declined with an increase in wealth and years of schooling as the main socio-economic factors. Conclusion: The rising trend of diabetes mortality rate at the national level and the sub-national disparities associated with socioeconomic status in Iran warrant the implementation of specific interventions recommended by the '25 by 25' goal.

Insight into blood pressure targets for universal coverage of hypertension services in Iran: the 2017 ACC/AHA versus JNC 8 hypertension guidelines.

BACKGROUND: We compared the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension in Iran based on two hypertension guidelines; the 2017 ACC/AHA -with an aggressive blood pressure target of 130/80 mmHg- and the commonly used JNC8 guideline cut-off of 140/90 mmHg. We shed light on the implications of the 2017 ACC/AHA for population subgroups and high-risk individuals who were eligible for non-pharmacologic and pharmacologic therapies. METHODS: Data was obtained from the Iran national STEPS 2016 study. Participants included 27,738 adults aged ≥25 years as a representative sample of Iranians. Regression models of survey design were used to examine the determinants of prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension. RESULTS: The prevalence of hypertension based on JNC8 was 29.9% (95% CI: 29.2-30.6), which soared to 53.7% (52.9-54.4) based on the 2017 ACC/AHA. The percentage of awareness, treatment, and control were 59.2% (58.0-60.3), 80.2% (78.9-81.4), and 39.1% (37.4-40.7) based on JNC8, which dropped to 37.1% (36.2-38.0), 71.3% (69.9-72.7), and 19.6% (18.3-21.0), respectively, by applying the 2017 ACC/AHA. Based on the new guideline, adults aged 25-34 years had the largest increase in prevalence (from 7.3 to 30.7%). They also had the lowest awareness and treatment rate, contrary to the highest control rate (36.5%) between age groups. Compared with JNC8, based on the 2017 ACC/AHA, 24, 15, 17, and 11% more individuals with dyslipidaemia, high triglycerides, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease events, respectively, fell into the hypertensive category. Yet, based on the 2017 ACC/AHA, 68.2% of individuals falling into the hypertensive category were eligible for receiving pharmacologic therapy (versus 95.7% in JNC8). LDL cholesterol< 130 mg/dL, sufficient physical activity (Metabolic Equivalents≥600/week), and Body Mass Index were found to change blood pressure by - 3.56(- 4.38, - 2.74), - 2.04(- 2.58, - 1.50), and 0.48(0.42, 0.53) mmHg, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Switching from JNC8 to 2017 ACC/AHA sharply increased the prevalence and drastically decreased the awareness, treatment, and control in Iran. Based on the 2017 ACC/AHA, more young adults and those with chronic comorbidities fell into the hypertensive category; these individuals might benefit from earlier interventions such as lifestyle modifications. The low control rate among individuals receiving treatment warrants a critical review of hypertension services.

What factors affect length of hospital stay among trauma patients? A single-center study, Southwestern Iran.

PURPOSE: Trauma is a major health concern. Length of hospital stay (LOS) has been targeted as an important metric to assess trauma care. This study aims to evaluate the risk factors that affect LOS among trauma patients in a trauma center in Southwestern Iran. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted on patients admitted to Rajaee Trauma Center, Shiraz, Iran between January 1, 2018 and December 30, 2018. The inclusion criteria were age above 15 years and having traffic accident injuries, including car, motorcycle and pedestrian injury mechanisms. The exclusion criteria were existing diseases including cardiovascular, cerebral, renal, and pulmonary diseases prior to this study, dead upon arrival or within 48 h after admission, and stay at the hospital for less than 6 h. The risk variables analyzed for prolonged LOS were age, gender, mechanism of traffic accident injury, infection during hospital stay, type of injury, injury severity score, surgery during hospitalization, and survival. Poisson regression was performed to evaluate the partial effects of each covariate on trauma hospitalization (≥3 days as longer stay). RESULTS: This study was conducted on 14,054 patients with traffic accident injury and the mean age was (33.89 ± 15.78) years. Additionally, 74.35% of the patients were male, with male to female ratio of 2.90. The result of Poisson regression indicated that male patients, higher age, combination of thoracic injuries, onset of infected sites, and surgery patients were more susceptible to have a longer LOS. Considering the site of injury, patients with face injuries followed by those with thorax injuries had the highest means of LOS (3.74 days and 3.36 days, respectively). Simultaneous existence of surgical intervention and infection in a patient had the greatest impact on prolonged LOS. CONCLUSION: This study identified that age, gender, mechanism of injury, infection, type of injury, survival, and ISS could lead to prolongation of LOS, but the affect can be reduced by eliminating modifiable risk factors.

Alcohol consumption and related disorders in Iran: Results from the National Surveillance of Non-Communicable Diseases' Survey (STEPs) 2016.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption is a public health concern which is illegal in Iran. Moreover, due to cultural and religious beliefs, the available population-based research findings on alcohol consumption are inadequate. We aimed to provide an estimate on alcohol consumption using a large-scale population-based survey in Iran. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The National Surveillance of Non-Communicable Risk Factors in Iran was a population-based survey conducted in 2016. The epidemiologic distribution of alcohol consumption and its related disorders were assessed using weighted survey methods and multiple logistic regression models. Age standardized rates were calculated using Iran's national population census in 2016. RESULTS: At the national level, the prevalence rates of lifetime and current alcohol consumption were 8.00% (95% CI: 7.67-8.32) and 4.04% (95% CI: 3.81-4.27), respectively. The highest prevalence was reported among 25 to 34 year-olds. Individuals of higher socioeconomic status consumed significantly greater levels of alcohol. At provincial level, the highest and lowest percentages of the current alcohol drinking rates in Iran's provinces were, 23.92% (95% CI: 17.56-30.28) and 0.4% (95% CI: 0-1.18) in males, 1.58% (95% CI: 0.22-2.94) and 0% in females, respectively. In urban regions, the highest alcohol consumption rate was more than 22 times greater than the lowest alcohol consumption rate. Current alcohol drinkers were 2 times more prone to injury as compared to nondrinkers (ORadj: 2.0, 95%CI: 1.7, 2.3). CONCLUSION: In Iran, the prevalence of alcohol consumption is low, although there is a considerable variation of alcohol consumption at provincial level as well as in different gender groups. Therefore, preventive WHO-recommended measures should be adopted more seriously by vulnerable groups.

Geographical and socioeconomic inequalities in female breast cancer incidence and mortality in Iran: A Bayesian spatial analysis of registry data.

BACKGROUND: In Iran, trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality have generally been monitored at national level. The purpose of this study is to examine province-level disparities in age-standardised breast cancer incidence versus mortality from 2000 to 2010 and their association with socioeconomic status. METHODS: In this study, data from Iran's national cancer and death registry systems, and covariates from census and household expenditure surveys were used. We estimated the age-standardised incidence and mortality rates in women aged more than 30 years for all 31 provinces in the consecutive time intervals 2000-2003, 2004-2007 and 2008-2010 using a Bayesian spatial model. RESULTS: Mean age-standardised breast cancer incidence across provinces increased over time from 15.0 per 100,000 people (95% credible interval 12.0,18.3) in 2000-2003 to 39.6 (34.5,45.1) in 2008-2010. The mean breast cancer mortality rate declined from 10.9 (8.3,13.8) to 9.9 (7.5,12.5) deaths per 100,000 people in the same period. When grouped by wealth index quintiles, provinces in the highest quintile had higher levels of incidence and mortality. In the wealthiest quintile, reductions in mortality over time were larger than those observed among provinces in the poorest quintile. Relative breast cancer mortality decreased by 16.7% in the highest quintile compared to 10.8% in the lowest quintile. CONCLUSIONS: Breast cancer incidence has increased over time, with lower incidence in the poorest provinces likely driven by underdiagnoses or late-stage diagnosis. Although the reported mortality rate is still higher in wealthier provinces, the larger decline over time in these provinces indicates a possible future reversal, with the most deprived provinces having higher mortality rates. Ongoing analysis of incidence and mortality at sub-national level is crucial in addressing inequalities in healthcare systems and public health both in Iran and elsewhere.

Levels and Trends of BMI, Obesity, and Overweight at National and Sub-national Levels in Iran from 1990 to 2016; A Comprehensive Pooled Analysis of Half a Million Individuals.

BACKGROUND: In developing countries like Iran, the burden of obesity increases through comorbid diseases. We estimated the mean body mass index (BMI) and prevalence of overweight/obesity by components of sex, age, province, and year in Iran from 1990 to 2016. METHODS: Through a comprehensive systematic review, all relevant data sources pooled results with individual level national and sub-national population-based studies. Two stages of age-spatio-temporal modeling and Gaussian process regression were used to estimate mean BMI, followed by estimation of obesity and overweight prevalence through the crosswalk modeling. RESULTS: In 2016, the age-standardized mean BMI was 27.9 (27.2-28.7) kg/m² in women and 25.9 (25.2-26.5) kg/m² in men. At the same time, the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity were 71.7% (67.9-75.8), and 36.8% (34.1-39.7) in females, and 57.1% (53.7-60.6), and 18.4% (16.9-20) in men. This shows a considerable increase from 1990 when the figures were respectively 24.4 (23.3-25.5) , 36.6% (32.2-41.5), and 8.2% (95% UI: 6.9-9.7) in women, and 23.5 (22.5-24.5), 30% (26.4-34), and 4.7% (4.0-5.5) in men, with 66% attributed to population growth. CONCLUSION: Considering the increasing trends of BMI, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) seem far out of reach. We need to call for action, aiming for both weight loss strategies and controlling the comorbidities that mediate high BMI risk.

Distribution of Dietary Risk Factors in Iran: National and Sub-National Burden of Disease.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are one of the greatest threats to public health, and have been related to poor quality dietary patterns. This study was conducted to determine the distribution of dietary risk factors in Iran. METHODS: Cross-sectional data was gathered between April and November 2016 from 30,541 eligible adults (out of 31 050 individuals who were selected through systematic proportional to size cluster random sampling) living in urban and rural areas, using the WHO-based STEPs risk factor questionnaire. Low intakes of fruits, vegetables, dairy products, and fish, and high intakes of salty processed food (SPF), as well as daily intake of hydrogenated fat (HF) were considered as nutritional risk factors. RESULTS: At the national level, 82.8% (95% CI: 82.4-83.2), 57.8% (95% CI: 57.2-58.4), 80.6% (95% CI: 80.1-81) and 90.3% (95% CI: 90-90.6) of participants of all age groups had sub-optimal intakes of fruits, vegetables, dairy products and fish, respectively. Furthermore, 12.8% (95% CI: 12.4-13.1), and 29.4% (95% CI: 28.9-29.9) of respondents had high SPF intakes and HF use, respectively. At the sub-national level, the highest distribution of suboptimal intake of fruits (97.2%; 95% CI:96-98.3), vegetables (79.2%; 95% CI: 76.3-82.1) and dairy products (92.9%; 95% CI: 91-94.7) was observed in Sistan and Baluchistan. Except for Boushehr and Hormozgan, the majority of the population of other provinces consumed fish less than twice a week. Similarly, the high intake of SPF was found mostly in the population of Yazd (23.7; 95% CI: 20.2-27.2). HF consumption was the highest in North Khorasan (64.2%; 95% CI: 60.3-68.1). CONCLUSION: These findings highlight the widespread distribution of dietary risk factors in Iran, which should be a priority for the people and the politicians in order to prevent NCDs.

Relative risk of injury due to alcohol consumption in car and motorcycle drivers.

BACKGROUND: There is strong evidence that a substantial number of fatal as well as nonfatal injuries in road traffic accidents result from alcohol consumption and abuse. AIMS: To examine the relationship between blood alcohol concentration and characteristics of injury in trauma patients admitted to a major teaching hospital. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional investigation of trauma characteristics among 38 435 car and motorcycle drivers referred to the South of Iran Trauma Center between October and March 2018. A log-binomial regression model was used to evaluate the relative risk of each covariate on the Injury Severity Score. RESULTS: There were 253 patients (7.78%) with alcohol consumption. Also, blood alcohol level was positive in 8.66% and 6.93% of car and motorcycle drivers, respectively. The ISS in alcohol consumers and nonconsumers was 6.34 (standard deviation; 8.73) and 4.12 (7.78), respectively, which was significantly higher in the alcohol consumers (t test = 12.96, P < 0.001). Therefore, alcohol consumption was a significant factor in increasing the relative risk of injury, which was 2.83 units more than among drivers who had not consumed alcohol. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that the police and law enforcement agencies have a responsibility to enforce stricter rules to reduce drink driving and the burden of trauma on the healthcare system.

Prevalence of Smoking among Iranian Adults: Findings of the National STEPs Survey 2016.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking is one of the most important avoidable causes of mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs). This study aimed to report the crude and standardized prevalence of current, ever, and secondhand smoking at national and provincial levels. METHODS: This study was performed through an analysis of the results of the STEPs survey 2016, which was conducted as a cross-sectional national study. The samples were selected via multistage cluster sampling and they were representative of general population aged ≥18 years in all provinces of Iran. All the data were analyzed via survey analysis while considering population weights. Age-standardized prevalence was also calculated for the Iranian national population in 2016 and the World Health Organization (WHO) Population 2000-2025. RESULTS: A total of 29963 subjects aged ≥18 years from all provinces of Iran, except for Qom, participated in this study. The age standardized prevalence of current tobacco smoking among adult males and females were 24.4% (95% CI: 23.6%-25.1%) and 3.8% (95% CI: 3.5%-4.1%), respectively. Among the participants, the majority of the current smokers were among those aged 45-54 years (14.5%; 95% CI: 13.6%-15.5%). With increase in age, the prevalence of secondhand smoking decreased to 34.8% (95% CI: 33.3%-36.7%) among people aged 18-24 years and to 22·6% (95% CI: 21.0%-24.3%) among subjects over 70 years. CONCLUSION: The result of the study can be used to inform policy makers about the status of smoking and help them to design policies for setting rules on and limiting the import of cigarettes and their components to the country.

Pattern of Maxillofacial Injuries and Determinants of Outcome in a Large Series of Patients admitted to a Level-I Trauma Center.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the severity of injuries and the pattern of jaw and facial injuries in trauma patients and also to determine the predictors of the outcome in these patients. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 2697 patients with facial trauma who referred to trauma center in Shahid Rajaee (Emtiaz) Hospital, Shiraz, Iran during 2010-2015. Injury severity score was determined through the conversion of injury codes of the International Classification of Diseases, tenth revision (ICD-10). Binary logistic regression by backward method was used to determine the partial effects of independent risk factors on death odds ratio. RESULTS: The mean age of patients with maxillofacial injuries was 31.96 ± 15.80 years. The mean injury severity score (ISS) was 4.3 ± 4.4 and about 80% of the patients had an ISS between 1 and 8. Mandible fracture and ear injuries, respectively, were the most and the least prevalent types of maxillofacial injury. The odds ratio of death by motorcycle accident was 1.7 times higher than falling down in maxillofacial patients. CONCLUSION: Age, gender (male), ISS, and mechanism of injury were the significant predictors of mortality in the facial trauma patients. Mandible fracture and ear injury, respectively, were the most and the least prevalent types of maxillofacial injury. Our findings demonstrate the need for referral to the maxillofacial surgeon and maxillofacial surgery should be in connected with neurosurgical centers.

National and Sub-National Pediatric Cancer Mortality in Iran, 2000-2015.

BACKGROUND: Cancer, a common disease in adulthood, is a rare albeit slowly increasing condition among children. Currently, limited data are available on the incidence, prevalence, and mortality of these diseases in many regions, including developing countries. Herein, we are reporting national and sub-national estimates on deaths due to childhood cancers between 2000 and 2015 in Iran. METHODS: Cancer mortality rates were estimated using the national death registration system's data after addressing its incompleteness and misclassification, using demographic (complete birth history and summary birth history) and statistical analysis (spatiotemporal, Gaussian process regression, and generalized linear mixed models). We included data from cemeteries of two cities (Tehran and Isfahan) that were not included in the death registration system. We used census data and household expenditure and income surveys for data on population and other covariates used in the modeling. RESULTS: The overall age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of childhood cancers have decreased by 69.52% (80.67-49.71) in Iran (equal to an annual percent change of -3.63 [-4.53- -2.24]), declining from 12.24 (95% UI: 10.52-14.49) in 2000 to 3.73 (2.8-5.29) deaths per 100000 in 2015. This decrement was equal to an annual percent change of 4.35% over these years. Leukemia, brain, and nervous system malignancies accounted for about 66% of all cancer-related mortalities among children and adolescents in 2015, which had a 10% increase compared to 2000. Moreover, trends at the sub-national level showed that the highest and lowest ASDR of childhood cancers ranged from 2.12 to 4.99 across provinces of Iran in 2015. CONCLUSION: Although the overall mortalities have decreased, there is still inequality in the distribution of the recorded deaths. This inequality should be addressed with the improvement of the quality of care and better access to pediatric hospitals and oncologists in these areas.

Burden of Drug and Alcohol Use Disorders in Iran: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND: Due to its specific socio-cultural and geographical situation, Iran has a major public health problem in terms of drug and alcohol use. The aim of this study is to report and critique the burden of drug and alcohol use disorders in Iran, and to compare these measurements with similar findings. METHODS: This study used data for Iran for the years 1990, 2005, and 2010 derived from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD 2010) conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in 2010. The burden of drug and alcohol use disorders was evaluated in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs). RESULTS: All rates were reported per 100,000 individuals. Death rates attributed to drug and alcohol use disorders were 7.7 and 0.16 for men, and 0.62 and 0.02 for women, respectively. YLL rates regarding drug use disorders were 351.8 and 24.8 for men and women, while these figures were 5.8 and 1.0 for alcohol use disorders for men and women, respectively. YLD rates of drug use disorders were 452.6 for men and 202.1 for women, and 105.8 for men and 23.7 for women for alcohol use disorders. DALY rates attributed to drug use disorders were 804.5 for men and 227 for women, while these rates were 111.7 for men and 24.7 for women, related to alcohol use disorders. CONCLUSION: Similar to the cases in many other countries, the burden of both drug and alcohol use disorders is higher for men than women in Iran. Although prevention policies and programs for drug and alcohol use are required for both genders, the need for drug and alcohol use intervention seems more urgent for men in Iran.

Equity Chasm in Megacities: Five Leading Causes of Death in Tehran.

BACKGROUND: Inequity in megacities is a real concern in public health perspective. Tehran is a megacity with more than 8 million population that is divided into 22 regions (counties) with considerable diversity in socioeconomic status. On the other hand, spatial cluster detection is an important tool in disease surveillance to identify areas of elevated risk and to generate hypotheses about disease or mortality etiology. The present research aims to identify high or low-risk clusters for five non-communicable leading causes of death in 22 regions of Tehran province. METHODS: Cause-specific mortality rates were extracted from Behesht-e-Zahra registry system for Tehran province in 2011. Spatial scan statistic as a most common method in spatial cluster detection was chosen to detect clusters with elevated risk of death. Given the observed and expected number death in each region, a log likelihood ratio (LLR) criterion was used to test whether a cluster is significant. RESULT: Two high-risk and two low-risk clusters were detected for each cause of death. All these clusters were statistically significant with P value less than 0.05. Mapping these clusters shows substantial differences between regions in Tehran. For mortality due to ischemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, hypertensive diseases, respiratory diseases, and stomach cancer, the high-risk clusters concentrated in southern half of Tehran and low-risk clusters were in northern half of Tehran. In the most situations, regions 2, 3 and 5 seemed to have lower rate of death comparing with other regions. On the other hand, regions, 16, 19 and 20 were in the high rate clusters. CONCLUSION: There was substantial disparity between regions of Tehran for five non-communicable causes of death studied in this article. Identifying factors affecting the observed differences is useful to set effective preventive interventions and can be investigated in future researches.