Predicting seasonal influenza using supermarket retail records.

Increased availability of epidemiological data, novel digital data streams, and the rise of powerful machine learning approaches have generated a surge of research activity on real-time epidemic forecast systems. In this paper, we propose the use of a novel data source, namely retail market data to improve seasonal influenza forecasting. Specifically, we consider supermarket retail data as a proxy signal for influenza, through the identification of sentinel baskets, i.e., products bought together by a population of selected customers. We develop a nowcasting and forecasting framework that provides estimates for influenza incidence in Italy up to 4 weeks ahead. We make use of the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to produce the predictions of seasonal flu incidence. Our predictions outperform both a baseline autoregressive model and a second baseline based on product purchases. The results show quantitatively the value of incorporating retail market data in forecasting models, acting as a proxy that can be used for the real-time analysis of epidemics.

Give more data, awareness and control to individual citizens, and they will help COVID-19 containment.

The rapid dynamics of COVID-19 calls for quick and effective tracking of virus transmission chains and early detection of outbreaks, especially in the "phase 2" of the pandemic, when lockdown and other restriction measures are progressively withdrawn, in order to avoid or minimize contagion resurgence. For this purpose, contact-tracing apps are being proposed for large scale adoption by many countries. A centralized approach, where data sensed by the app are all sent to a nation-wide server, raises concerns about citizens' privacy and needlessly strong digital surveillance, thus alerting us to the need to minimize personal data collection and avoiding location tracking. We advocate the conceptual advantage of a decentralized approach, where both contact and location data are collected exclusively in individual citizens' "personal data stores", to be shared separately and selectively (e.g., with a backend system, but possibly also with other citizens), voluntarily, only when the citizen has tested positive for COVID-19, and with a privacy preserving level of granularity. This approach better protects the personal sphere of citizens and affords multiple benefits: it allows for detailed information gathering for infected people in a privacy-preserving fashion; and, in turn this enables both contact tracing, and, the early detection of outbreak hotspots on more finely-granulated geographic scale. The decentralized approach is also scalable to large populations, in that only the data of positive patients need be handled at a central level. Our recommendation is two-fold. First to extend existing decentralized architectures with a light touch, in order to manage the collection of location data locally on the device, and allow the user to share spatio-temporal aggregates-if and when they want and for specific aims-with health authorities, for instance. Second, we favour a longer-term pursuit of realizing a Personal Data Store vision, giving users the opportunity to contribute to collective good in the measure they want, enhancing self-awareness, and cultivating collective efforts for rebuilding society.

Error Estimation of Ultra-Short Heart Rate Variability Parameters: Effect of Missing Data Caused by Motion Artifacts.

Application of ultra-short Heart Rate Variability (HRV) is desirable in order to increase the applicability of HRV features to wrist-worn wearable devices equipped with heart rate sensors that are nowadays becoming more and more popular in people's daily life. This study is focused in particular on the the two most used HRV parameters, i.e., the standard deviation of inter-beat intervals (SDNN) and the root Mean Squared error of successive inter-beat intervals differences (rMSSD). The huge problem of extracting these HRV parameters from wrist-worn devices is that their data are affected by the motion artifacts. For this reason, estimating the error caused by this huge quantity of missing values is fundamental to obtain reliable HRV parameters from these devices. To this aim, we simulate missing values induced by motion artifacts (from 0 to 70%) in an ultra-short time window (i.e., from 4 min to 30 s) by the random walk Gilbert burst model in 22 young healthy subjects. In addition, 30 s and 2 min ultra-short time windows are required to estimate rMSSD and SDNN, respectively. Moreover, due to the fact that ultra-short time window does not permit assessing very low frequencies, and the SDNN is highly affected by these frequencies, the bias for estimating SDNN continues to increase as the time window length decreases. On the contrary, a small error is detected in rMSSD up to 30 s due to the fact that it is highly affected by high frequencies which are possible to be evaluated even if the time window length decreases. Finally, the missing values have a small effect on rMSSD and SDNN estimation. As a matter of fact, the HRV parameter errors increase slightly as the percentage of missing values increase.

Gastroesophageal reflux symptoms among Italian university students: epidemiology and dietary correlates using automatically recorded transactions.

BACKGROUND: Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is one of the most common gastrointestinal disorders worldwide, with relevant impact on the quality of life and health care costs.The aim of our study is to assess the prevalence of GERD based on self-reported symptoms among university students in central Italy. The secondary aim is to evaluate lifestyle correlates, particularly eating habits, in GERD students using automatically recorded transactions through cashiers at university canteen. METHODS: A web-survey was created and launched through an app, ad-hoc developed for an interactive exchange of information with students, including anthropometric data and lifestyle habits. Moreover, the web-survey allowed users a self-diagnosis of GERD through a simple questionnaire. As regard eating habits, detailed collection of meals consumed, including number and type of dishes, were automatically recorded through cashiers at the university canteen equipped with an automatic registration system. RESULTS: We collected 3012 questionnaires. A total of 792 students (26.2% of the respondents) reported typical GERD symptoms occurring at least weekly. Female sex was more prevalent than male sex. In the set of students with GERD, the percentage of smokers was higher, and our results showed that when BMI tends to higher values the percentage of students with GERD tends to increase. When evaluating correlates with diet, we found, among all users, a lower frequency of legumes choice in GERD students and, among frequent users, a lower frequency of choice of pasta and rice in GERD students. DISCUSSION: The results of our study are in line with the values reported in the literature. Nowadays, GERD is a common problem in our communities, and can potentially lead to serious medical complications; the economic burden involved in the diagnostic and therapeutic management of the disease has a relevant impact on healthcare costs. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first study evaluating the prevalence of typical GERD-related symptoms in a young population of University students in Italy. Considering the young age of enrolled subjects, our prevalence rate, relatively high compared to the usual estimates, could represent a further negative factor for the future economic sustainability of the healthcare system.

Physiological recovery among workers in long-distance sleddog races: A case study on female veterinarians in Finnmarksløpet.

BACKGROUND: During Finnmarksløpet (FL, one of the longest distance sleddog races in the world), veterinarians are exposed to extreme environmental conditions and tight working schedules, with little and fragmented sleep. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this case study was to examine cardiovascular parameters and sleep-wake patterns among veterinarians working within FL, during and after (for a month) the end of the race. METHODS: Six female veterinarians volunteered for the study. The participants wore a wrist device for a total of eight weeks in order to passively and semi-continuously record physiological responses throughout the day (i.e., heart rate, heart rate variability, number of steps, and sleep quality). Moreover, perceived sleep quality was assessed by Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) at three time-points. RESULTS: During and for one month after completion of the FL, most veterinarians presented an alteration of cardiovascular parameters and sleep quality. The heart rate circadian rhythm returned to pre-race values within about two weeks. CONCLUSIONS: The long-lasting alteration of the veterinarians' cardiovascular parameters and sleep-wake patterns might have negative consequences for their health in the long-term, especially if similar experiences are repeated more times though the course of a year or season. More research is needed in order to understand the health risks, as well as how to prevent them, among veterinarians in long-distance sleddog races or other similar events.

Algorithmic bias amplifies opinion fragmentation and polarization: A bounded confidence model.

The flow of information reaching us via the online media platforms is optimized not by the information content or relevance but by popularity and proximity to the target. This is typically performed in order to maximise platform usage. As a side effect, this introduces an algorithmic bias that is believed to enhance fragmentation and polarization of the societal debate. To study this phenomenon, we modify the well-known continuous opinion dynamics model of bounded confidence in order to account for the algorithmic bias and investigate its consequences. In the simplest version of the original model the pairs of discussion participants are chosen at random and their opinions get closer to each other if they are within a fixed tolerance level. We modify the selection rule of the discussion partners: there is an enhanced probability to choose individuals whose opinions are already close to each other, thus mimicking the behavior of online media which suggest interaction with similar peers. As a result we observe: a) an increased tendency towards opinion fragmentation, which emerges also in conditions where the original model would predict consensus, b) increased polarisation of opinions and c) a dramatic slowing down of the speed at which the convergence at the asymptotic state is reached, which makes the system highly unstable. Fragmentation and polarization are augmented by a fragmented initial population.

A public data set of spatio-temporal match events in soccer competitions.

Soccer analytics is attracting increasing interest in academia and industry, thanks to the availability of sensing technologies that provide high-fidelity data streams for every match. Unfortunately, these detailed data are owned by specialized companies and hence are rarely publicly available for scientific research. To fill this gap, this paper describes the largest open collection of soccer-logs ever released, containing all the spatio-temporal events (passes, shots, fouls, etc.) that occured during each match for an entire season of seven prominent soccer competitions. Each match event contains information about its position, time, outcome, player and characteristics. The nature of team sports like soccer, halfway between the abstraction of a game and the reality of complex social systems, combined with the unique size and composition of this dataset, provide an ideal ground for tackling a wide range of data science problems, including the measurement and evaluation of performance, both at individual and at collective level, and the determinants of success and failure.

Active and passive diffusion processes in complex networks.

Ideas, information, viruses: all of them, with their mechanisms, spread over the complex social information, viruses: all tissues described by our interpersonal relations. Usually, to simulate and understand the unfolding of such complex phenomena are used general mathematical models; these models act agnostically from the object of which they simulate the diffusion, thus considering spreading of virus, ideas and innovations alike. Indeed, such degree of abstraction makes it easier to define a standard set of tools that can be applied to heterogeneous contexts; however, it can also lead to biased, incorrect, simulation outcomes. In this work we introduce the concepts of active and passive diffusion to discriminate the degree in which individuals choice affect the overall spreading of content over a social graph. Moving from the analysis of a well-known passive diffusion schema, the Threshold model (that can be used to model peer-pressure related processes), we introduce two novel approaches whose aim is to provide active and mixed schemas applicable in the context of innovations/ideas diffusion simulation. Our analysis, performed both in synthetic and real-world data, underline that the adoption of exclusively passive/active models leads to conflicting results, thus highlighting the need of mixed approaches to capture the real complexity of the simulated system better.

Forecasting success via early adoptions analysis: A data-driven study.

Innovations are continuously launched over markets, such as new products over the retail market or new artists over the music scene. Some innovations become a success; others don't. Forecasting which innovations will succeed at the beginning of their lifecycle is hard. In this paper, we provide a data-driven, large-scale account of the existence of a special niche among early adopters, individuals that consistently tend to adopt successful innovations before they reach success: we will call them Hit-Savvy. Hit-Savvy can be discovered in very different markets and retain over time their ability to anticipate the success of innovations. As our second contribution, we devise a predictive analytical process, exploiting Hit-Savvy as signals, which achieves high accuracy in the early-stage prediction of successful innovations, far beyond the reach of state-of-the-art time series forecasting models. Indeed, our findings and predictive model can be fruitfully used to support marketing strategies and product placement.

Returners and explorers dichotomy in human mobility.

The availability of massive digital traces of human whereabouts has offered a series of novel insights on the quantitative patterns characterizing human mobility. In particular, numerous recent studies have lead to an unexpected consensus: the considerable variability in the characteristic travelled distance of individuals coexists with a high degree of predictability of their future locations. Here we shed light on this surprising coexistence by systematically investigating the impact of recurrent mobility on the characteristic distance travelled by individuals. Using both mobile phone and GPS data, we discover the existence of two distinct classes of individuals: returners and explorers. As existing models of human mobility cannot explain the existence of these two classes, we develop more realistic models able to capture the empirical findings. Finally, we show that returners and explorers play a distinct quantifiable role in spreading phenomena and that a correlation exists between their mobility patterns and social interactions.