Development and validation of time-to-event models to predict metastatic recurrence of localized cutaneous melanoma.

BACKGROUND: The recent expansion of immunotherapy for stage IIB/IIC melanoma highlights a growing clinical need to identify patients at high risk of metastatic recurrence and, therefore, most likely to benefit from this therapeutic modality. OBJECTIVE: To develop time-to-event risk prediction models for melanoma metastatic recurrence. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with stage I/II primary cutaneous melanoma between 2000 and 2020 at Mass General Brigham and Dana-Farber Cancer Institute were included. Melanoma recurrence date and type were determined by chart review. Thirty clinicopathologic factors were extracted from electronic health records. Three types of time-to-event machine-learning models were evaluated internally and externally in the distant versus locoregional/nonrecurrence prediction. RESULTS: This study included 954 melanomas (155 distant, 163 locoregional, and 636 1:2 matched nonrecurrences). Distant recurrences were associated with worse survival compared to locoregional/nonrecurrences (HR: 6.21, P < .001) and to locoregional recurrences only (HR: 5.79, P < .001). The Gradient Boosting Survival model achieved the best performance (concordance index: 0.816; time-dependent AUC: 0.842; Brier score: 0.103) in the external validation. LIMITATIONS: Retrospective nature and cohort from one geography. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that time-to-event machine-learning models can reliably predict the metastatic recurrence from localized melanoma and help identify high-risk patients who are most likely to benefit from immunotherapy.

The Spatial Landscape of Progression and Immunoediting in Primary Melanoma at Single-Cell Resolution.

Cutaneous melanoma is a highly immunogenic malignancy that is surgically curable at early stages but life-threatening when metastatic. Here we integrate high-plex imaging, 3D high-resolution microscopy, and spatially resolved microregion transcriptomics to study immune evasion and immunoediting in primary melanoma. We find that recurrent cellular neighborhoods involving tumor, immune, and stromal cells change significantly along a progression axis involving precursor states, melanoma in situ, and invasive tumor. Hallmarks of immunosuppression are already detectable in precursor regions. When tumors become locally invasive, a consolidated and spatially restricted suppressive environment forms along the tumor-stromal boundary. This environment is established by cytokine gradients that promote expression of MHC-II and IDO1, and by PD1-PDL1-mediated cell contacts involving macrophages, dendritic cells, and T cells. A few millimeters away, cytotoxic T cells synapse with melanoma cells in fields of tumor regression. Thus, invasion and immunoediting can coexist within a few millimeters of each other in a single specimen. SIGNIFICANCE: The reorganization of the tumor ecosystem in primary melanoma is an excellent setting in which to study immunoediting and immune evasion. Guided by classic histopathology, spatial profiling of proteins and mRNA reveals recurrent morphologic and molecular features of tumor evolution that involve localized paracrine cytokine signaling and direct cell-cell contact. This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 1397.