The price tag of a potential cure for chronic hepatitis B infection: A cost threshold analysis for USA, China and Australia.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We aim to capture the economic impact of a potential cure for chronic hepatitis B infection (CHB) in three countries (USA, China and Australia) with different health systems and epidemics to estimate the threshold drug prices below which a CHB cure would be cost-saving and/or highly cost-effective. METHODS: We simulated patients' hepatitis B progression, under three scenarios: current long-term suppressive antiviral therapy, functional cure defined as sustained undetectable HBsAg and HBV DNA, and partial cure defined as sustained undetectable HBV DNA only after a finite, 48-week treatment. RESULTS: Compared with current long-term antiviral therapy, a 30% effective functional cure among patients with and without cirrhosis in the USA, China and Australia would yield 17.50, 17.32 and 20.42 QALYs per patient, and 20.61, 20.42 and 20.62 QALYs per patient respectively. In financial terms, for CHB patients with and without cirrhosis, this would be cost-saving at a one-time treatment cost under US$11 944 and US$6694, respectively, in the USA, US$1744 and US$1001 in China, and US$12 063 and US$10 983 in Australia. CONCLUSION: We show that in purely economic terms, a CHB cure will be highly cost-effective even if effective in only 30% of treated patients. The threshold price for cure is largely determined by the current antiviral drug costs, since it will replace a daily antiviral pill that is inexpensive and effective, although not curative. The likely need for combination therapies to achieve cure will also present cost challenges. While cost-effectiveness is important, it cannot be the only consideration, as cure will provide many benefits in addition to reduced liver disease and HCC, including eliminating the need for a long-term daily pill and reducing stigma often associated with chronic viral infection.

A global scientific strategy to cure hepatitis B.

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a global public health challenge on the same scale as tuberculosis, HIV, and malaria. The International Coalition to Eliminate HBV (ICE-HBV) is a coalition of experts dedicated to accelerating the discovery of a cure for chronic hepatitis B. Following extensive consultation with more than 50 scientists from across the globe, as well as key stakeholders including people affected by HBV, we have identified gaps in our current knowledge and new strategies and tools that are required to achieve HBV cure. We believe that research must focus on the discovery of interventional strategies that will permanently reduce the number of productively infected cells or permanently silence the covalently closed circular DNA in those cells, and that will stimulate HBV-specific host immune responses which mimic spontaneous resolution of HBV infection. There is also a pressing need for the establishment of repositories of standardised HBV reagents and protocols that can be accessed by all HBV researchers throughout the world. The HBV cure research agenda outlined in this position paper will contribute markedly to the goal of eliminating HBV infection worldwide.