Temporal validation of the MMCD score to predict kidney replacement therapy and in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury has been described as a common complication in patients hospitalized with COVID-19, which may lead to the need for kidney replacement therapy (KRT) in its most severe forms. Our group developed and validated the MMCD score in Brazilian COVID-19 patients to predict KRT, which showed excellent performance using data from 2020. This study aimed to validate the MMCD score in a large cohort of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in a different pandemic phase and assess its performance to predict in-hospital mortality. METHODS: This study is part of the "Brazilian COVID-19 Registry", a retrospective observational cohort of consecutive patients hospitalized for laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in 25 Brazilian hospitals between March 2021 and August 2022. The primary outcome was KRT during hospitalization and the secondary was in-hospital mortality. We also searched literature for other prediction models for KRT, to assess the results in our database. Performance was assessed using area under the receiving operator characteristic curve (AUROC) and the Brier score. RESULTS: A total of 9422 patients were included, 53.8% were men, with a median age of 59 (IQR 48-70) years old. The incidence of KRT was 8.8% and in-hospital mortality was 18.1%. The MMCD score had excellent discrimination and overall performance to predict KRT (AUROC: 0.916 [95% CI 0.909-0.924]; Brier score = 0.057). Despite the excellent discrimination and overall performance (AUROC: 0.922 [95% CI 0.914-0.929]; Brier score = 0.100), the calibration was not satisfactory concerning in-hospital mortality. A random forest model was applied in the database, with inferior performance to predict KRT requirement (AUROC: 0.71 [95% CI 0.69-0.73]). CONCLUSION: The MMCD score is not appropriate for in-hospital mortality but demonstrates an excellent predictive ability to predict KRT in COVID-19 patients. The instrument is low cost, objective, fast and accurate, and can contribute to supporting clinical decisions in the efficient allocation of assistance resources in patients with COVID-19.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation outcomes in COVID-19 patients: Case series from the Brazilian COVID-19 Registry.

Around 5% of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients develop critical disease, with severe pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). In these cases, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) may be considered when conventional therapy fails. This study aimed to describe the clinical characteristics and in-hospital outcomes of COVID-19 patients with ARDS refractory to lung-protective ventilation and prone positioning on ECMO support, as well as to review the available literature on ECMO use and COVID-19 patients' outcome. Patients from this case series were selected from the Brazilian COVID-19 Registry. From the 7646 patients included in the registry, only eight received ECMO support (0.1%), in four hospitals. The median age of the entire sample was 59 (interquartile range 54.2-64.4) years old and 87.5% were male. Hypertension (50.0%), diabetes mellitus (50.0%) and obesity (37.5%) were the most frequent comorbidities. The indications for ECMO were PaO2 /FiO2 ratio <80 mm Hg for more than 6 h or PaO2 /FiO2 ratio <60 mm Hg for more than 3 h. The mortality rate was 87.5%. In conclusion, in this case series of COVID-19 patients with ARDS refractory to conventional therapy who received ECMO support, a very high mortality was observed. Our findings are not different from previous studies including a small number of patients; however, there is a huge difference from Extracorporeal Life Support Organization results, which encourages us to keep looking for improvement.

Potential and limitations of machine meta-learning (ensemble) methods for predicting COVID-19 mortality in a large inhospital Brazilian dataset.

The majority of early prediction scores and methods to predict COVID-19 mortality are bound by methodological flaws and technological limitations (e.g., the use of a single prediction model). Our aim is to provide a thorough comparative study that tackles those methodological issues, considering multiple techniques to build mortality prediction models, including modern machine learning (neural) algorithms and traditional statistical techniques, as well as meta-learning (ensemble) approaches. This study used a dataset from a multicenter cohort of 10,897 adult Brazilian COVID-19 patients, admitted from March/2020 to November/2021, including patients [median age 60 (interquartile range 48-71), 46% women]. We also proposed new original population-based meta-features that have not been devised in the literature. Stacking has shown to achieve the best results reported in the literature for the death prediction task, improving over previous state-of-the-art by more than 46% in Recall for predicting death, with AUROC 0.826 and MacroF1 of 65.4%. The newly proposed meta-features were highly discriminative of death, but fell short in producing large improvements in final prediction performance, demonstrating that we are possibly on the limits of the prediction capabilities that can be achieved with the current set of ML techniques and (meta-)features. Finally, we investigated how the trained models perform on different hospitals, showing that there are indeed large differences in classifier performance between different hospitals, further making the case that errors are produced by factors that cannot be modeled with the current predictors.

Predictors of venous thromboembolism in COVID-19 patients: results of the COVID-19 Brazilian Registry.

Previous studies that assessed risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in COVID-19 patients have shown inconsistent results. Our aim was to investigate VTE predictors by both logistic regression (LR) and machine learning (ML) approaches, due to their potential complementarity. This cohort study of a large Brazilian COVID-19 Registry included 4120 COVID-19 adult patients from 16 hospitals. Symptomatic VTE was confirmed by objective imaging. LR analysis, tree-based boosting, and bagging were used to investigate the association of variables upon hospital presentation with VTE. Among 4,120 patients (55.5% men, 39.3% critical patients), VTE was confirmed in 6.7%. In multivariate LR analysis, obesity (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.11-2.02); being an ex-smoker (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.03-2.01); surgery ≤ 90 days (OR 2.20, 95% CI 1.14-4.23); axillary temperature (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.22-1.63); D-dimer ≥ 4 times above the upper limit of reference value (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.26-3.67), lactate (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.19), C-reactive protein levels (CRP, OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.01-1.18); and neutrophil count (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.005-1.075) were independent predictors of VTE. Atrial fibrillation, peripheral oxygen saturation/inspired oxygen fraction (SF) ratio and prophylactic use of anticoagulants were protective. Temperature at admission, SF ratio, neutrophil count, D-dimer, CRP and lactate levels were also identified as predictors by ML methods. By using ML and LR analyses, we showed that D-dimer, axillary temperature, neutrophil count, CRP and lactate levels are risk factors for VTE in COVID-19 patients.

Evaluation of strength and irradiated movement pattern resulting from trunk motions of the proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation.

Introduction. The proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation (PNF) is a physiotherapeutic concept based on muscle and joint proprioceptive stimulation. Among its principles, the irradiation is the reaction of the distinct regional muscle contractions to the position of the application of the motions. Objective. To investigate the presence of irradiated dorsiflexion and plantar flexion and the existing strength generated by them during application of PNF trunk motions. Methods. The study was conducted with 30 sedentary and female volunteers, the PNF motions of trunk flexion, and extension with the foot (right and left) positioned in a developed equipment coupled to the load cell, which measured the strength irradiated in Newton. Results. Most of the volunteers irradiated dorsal flexion in the performance of the flexion and plantar flexion during the extension motion, both presenting an average force of 8.942 N and 10.193 N, respectively. Conclusion. The distal irradiation in lower limbs became evident, reinforcing the therapeutic actions to the PNF indirect muscular activation.