Addition of polygenic risk score to a risk calculator for prediction of breast cancer in US Black women.

BACKGROUND: Previous work in European ancestry populations has shown that adding a polygenic risk score (PRS) to breast cancer risk prediction models based on epidemiologic factors results in better discriminatory performance as measured by the AUC (area under the curve). Following publication of the first PRS to perform well in women of African ancestry (AA-PRS), we conducted an external validation of the AA-PRS and then evaluated the addition of the AA-PRS to a risk calculator for incident breast cancer in Black women based on epidemiologic factors (BWHS model). METHODS: Data from the Black Women's Health Study, an ongoing prospective cohort study of 59,000 US Black women followed by biennial questionnaire since 1995, were used to calculate AUCs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for discriminatory accuracy of the BWHS model, the AA-PRS alone, and a new model that combined them. Analyses were based on data from 922 women with invasive breast cancer and 1844 age-matched controls. RESULTS: AUCs were 0.577 (95% CI 0.556-0.598) for the BWHS model and 0.584 (95% CI 0.563-0.605) for the AA-PRS. For a model that combined estimates from the questionnaire-based BWHS model with the PRS, the AUC increased to 0.623 (95% CI 0.603-0.644). CONCLUSIONS: This combined model represents a step forward for personalized breast cancer preventive care for US Black women, as its performance metrics are similar to those from models in other populations. Use of this new model may mitigate exacerbation of breast cancer disparities if and when it becomes feasible to include a PRS in routine health care decision-making.

Temporal changes in mammographic breast density and breast cancer risk among women with benign breast disease.

INTRODUCTION: Benign breast disease (BBD) and high mammographic breast density (MBD) are prevalent and independent risk factors for invasive breast cancer. It has been suggested that temporal changes in MBD may impact future invasive breast cancer risk, but this has not been studied among women with BBD. METHODS: We undertook a nested case-control study within a cohort of 15,395 women with BBD in Kaiser Permanente Northwest (KPNW; 1970-2012, followed through mid-2015). Cases (n = 261) developed invasive breast cancer > 1 year after BBD diagnosis, whereas controls (n = 249) did not have breast cancer by the case diagnosis date. Cases and controls were individually matched on BBD diagnosis age and plan membership duration. Standardized %MBD change (per 2 years), categorized as stable/any increase (≥ 0%), minimal decrease of less than 5% or a decrease greater than or equal to 5%, was determined from baseline and follow-up mammograms. Associations between MBD change and breast cancer risk were examined using adjusted unconditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Overall, 64.5% (n = 329) of BBD patients had non-proliferative and 35.5% (n = 181) had proliferative disease with/without atypia. Women with an MBD decrease (≤ - 5%) were less likely to develop breast cancer (Odds Ratio (OR) 0.64; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.38, 1.07) compared with women with minimal decreases. Associations were stronger among women ≥ 50 years at BBD diagnosis (OR 0.48; 95% CI 0.25, 0.92) and with proliferative BBD (OR 0.32; 95% CI 0.11, 0.99). DISCUSSION: Assessment of temporal MBD changes may inform risk monitoring among women with BBD, and strategies to actively reduce MBD may help decrease future breast cancer risk.

Early-pregnancy sex steroid and thyroid function hormones, thyroid autoimmunity, and maternal papillary thyroid cancer incidence in the Finnish Maternity Cohort.

Thyroid cancer more commonly affects women than men and is the third most frequently diagnosed cancer among women of reproductive age. We conducted a nested case-control study within the Finnish Maternity Cohort to evaluate pre-diagnostic sex steroid and thyroid function markers in relation to subsequent maternal papillary thyroid cancer. Cases (n = 605) were women ages 18-44 years, who provided an early-pregnancy (<20 weeks gestation) blood sample and were diagnosed with papillary thyroid cancer up to 11 years afterward. Controls (n = 1185) were matched to cases 2:1 by gestational age, mother's age, and date at blood draw. Odds ratios (ORs) for the associations of serum thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPO-Ab), thyroglobulin antibodies (Tg-Ab), thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine (fT4), free triiodothyronine (fT3), progesterone, and estradiol with papillary thyroid cancer were estimated using conditional logistic regression. TPO-Ab and Tg-Ab positivity (>95th percentile among controls) were associated with more than 3-fold (OR = 3.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.33-4.72) and 2-fold (OR = 2.03, 95% CI 1.41-2.93) increased odds of papillary thyroid cancer, respectively. These associations were similar by time since blood draw, parity, gestational age, smoking status, and age and stage at diagnosis. In models excluding TPO-Ab or Tg-Ab positivity, TPO-Ab (quartile 4 vs. 1: OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.17-2.37, p-trend = .002) and Tg-Ab (quartile 4 vs. 1: OR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.22-2.49, p-trend = .01) levels were positively associated with papillary thyroid cancer. No associations were observed for estradiol, progesterone, TSH, fT3, or fT4 overall. Our results suggest that thyroid autoimmunity in early pregnancy may increase the risk of maternal papillary thyroid cancer.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use and inflammatory markers associated with gallbladder dysplasia: A case-control analysis within a series of patients undergoing cholecystectomy.

Inflammation has been associated with the development of gallbladder cancer (GBC). However, little is known about the associations of both, inflammation and the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), with preneoplastic lesions. We analyzed the association of NSAIDs and gallbladder dysplasia in 82 patients with dysplasia and 1843 patients with gallstones among symptomatic patients from a high-risk population. We also analyzed associations for 33 circulating immune-related proteins in a subsample of all 68 dysplasia cases diagnosed at the time of sample selection and 136 gallstone controls. We calculated age- and sex-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Biliary colic was reported among most cases (97.6%) and controls (83.9%). NSAID use was inversely associated with gallbladder dysplasia (OR: 0.48, 95%CI: 0.26-0.83). Comparing the highest versus lowest category of each immune-related protein, eight proteins were inversely associated with dysplasia with sex- and age-adjusted ORs ranging from 0.30 (95%CI: 0.12-0.77) for IL-33 to 0.76 (95%CI: 0.59-0.99) for MIP-1B. Of those, GRO remained associated with dysplasia (OR: 0.64, 95%CI: 0.45-0.91) and BCA-1 was borderline associated (OR: 0.74, 95%CI: 0.54-1.01) after adjusting the logistic regression model for sex, age, and NSAIDs. In conclusion, NSAID users were less likely to have gallbladder dysplasia, suggesting that NSAIDs might be beneficial for symptomatic gallstones patients. The inverse association between immune-related markers and dysplasia requires additional research, ideally in prospective studies with asymptomatic participants, to understand the role of the inflammatory response in the natural history of GBC and to address the biological effect of NSAIDs.

A proteome-wide analysis unveils a core Epstein-Barr virus antibody signature of classic Hodgkin lymphoma across ethnically diverse populations.

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is an oncogenic virus associated with various malignancies, including classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL). Despite its known association, the specific role of humoral immune response to EBV remains poorly characterized in cHL. To address this, we conducted a study using a custom protein microarray to measure the antibody responses in cHL patients and matched healthy controls recruited from an East-Asian hospital-based case-control study. We identified 16 IgG antibodies significantly elevated in EBV-positive cHL compared with controls, defining an "East-Asian antibody signature of EBV-positive cHL." We evaluated responses against these 16 antibodies in a distinct European population, leveraging data from our previous European cHL case-control study from the UK, Denmark, and Sweden. A subset of antibodies (14/16, 87.5%) from the "East-Asian antibody signature of EBV-positive cHL" exhibited significant associations with cHL in the European population. Conversely, we assessed the "European antibody signature of EBV-positive cHL" identified in our prior study which consisted of 18 EBV antibodies (2 IgA, 16 IgG), in the East-Asian population. A subset of these antibodies (15/18, 83.3%) maintained significant associations with cHL in the East-Asian population. This cross-comparison of antibody signatures underscores the robust generalizability of EBV antibodies across populations. Five anti-EBV IgG antibodies (LMP-1, TK, BALF2, BDLF3, and BBLF1), found in both population-specific antibody signatures, represent a "core signature of EBV-positive cHL." Our findings suggest that the antibody responses targeting these core EBV proteins reflect a specific EBV gene expression pattern, serving as potential biomarkers for EBV-positive cHL independent of population-specific factors.

Cure models, survival probabilities, and solid organ transplantation for patients with colorectal cancer.

A previous cancer diagnosis can preclude patients from consideration for solid organ transplantation. Statistical models may improve candidate selection. We fitted statistical cure models and estimated 5-year cancer-specific survival (5yCSS) for colorectal cancer patients in the United States using registry data. The median cure probability at cancer diagnosis for patients in the general population was 0.67. Among 956 colorectal cancer patients who underwent solid organ transplantation, the median time since diagnosis was 6.3 years and the median 5yCSS at transplantation was 0.96. Patients with a 5yCSS below 0.90 had increased posttransplant cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio 3.31, 95% CI 1.52-7.21). Compared with recently published guidelines, our models suggested shorter wait times for some groups of colorectal cancer patients (eg, stage IIA cancers) and longer wait times for others (stages IIB, IIIB, IIIC, IV). In conclusion, colorectal cancer patients undergoing solid organ transplantation had excellent prognoses, reflecting selection incorporating existing guidelines and clinical judgment. Nonetheless, 5yCSS probabilities estimated from cure models offer additional prognostic information for patients considered for transplantation and identify situations where current guidelines might be revised. We developed a web-based tool for clinicians to calculate 5yCSS probabilities for use in transplant evaluation for individual colorectal cancer patients (https://dceg.cancer.gov/tools/risk-assessment/calculator-of-colorectal-cancer-survival-probability).

The burden of COVID-19 mortality among solid organ transplant recipients in the United States.

Solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) have a heightened risk of adverse coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes because of immunosuppression and medical comorbidity. We quantified the burden of COVID-19 mortality in United States (US) SOTRs. A sample of deaths documented in the US solid organ transplant registry from June 2020 through December 2022 was linked to the National Death Index to identify COVID-19 deaths and weighted to represent all SOTR deaths during the study period. Among 505 757 SOTRs, 57 575 deaths occurred, and based on the linkage, 12 396 (21.5%) were due to COVID-19. COVID-19 mortality was higher in males (mortality rate ratio [MRR]: 1.13), SOTRs aged 65 years and older (MRR: 1.50 in ages 65-74 vs ages 55-64 years), and non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic SOTRs (MRRs: 1.55 and 1.79 vs non-Hispanic White SOTRs). Kidney and lung recipients had the highest COVID-19 mortality, followed by heart, and then liver recipients. COVID-19 mortality also varied over time and across US states. Overall, SOTRs had a 7-fold increased risk of COVID-19 death compared to the US general population. SOTRs comprised 0.13% of the US population but accounted for 1.46% of all US COVID-19 deaths. SOTRs experience greatly elevated COVID-19 mortality. Clinicians should continue to prioritize COVID-19 prevention and treatment in this high-risk population.

Adjuvant endocrine therapy and risk of contralateral breast cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

PURPOSE: Randomized clinical trials support reductions in contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk with use of adjuvant endocrine therapy, however, real-world treatment effects, particularly for subgroups of breast cancer survivors, remain inconclusive. To address this, population-based observational studies of adjuvant endocrine therapy and CBC were synthesized and meta-analyzed. METHODS: PubMed and Embase databases were systematically searched for observational studies of endocrine therapy use and CBC risk. Random effects meta-analyses estimated summary relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between endocrine therapy (ever use of tamoxifen and/or aromatase inhibitors (AIs)) and CBC risk. Heterogeneity across studies was assessed using the I2 test. Subgroup analyses were conducted by study design, menopausal status, and CBC estrogen receptor (ER)-status. RESULTS: Seventeen eligible observational studies (n = 287,576 breast cancer survivors) published between 1995 and 2019 were included. Endocrine therapy use was associated with reduced CBC risk (RR:0.62, 95% CI:0.53, 0.73, I2 = 84.8%, p < 0.0001). No heterogeneity was observed by study design (phet = 0.9). Similar reductions were observed in analyses restricted to tamoxifen use. As only two studies assessed AI use, estimates could not be meta-analyzed. In subgroup analyses, there were no differences in CBC risk reduction by menopausal status (phet = 0.22). Endocrine therapy reduced risk of ER-positive (RR:0.55, 95% CI:0.43, 0.70) but not ER-negative CBC (RR:1.26, 95% CI:0.95, 1.66) (phet < 0.001). CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis of observational studies supports a reduction in CBC risk with endocrine therapy among breast cancer survivors, in concert with evidence synthesized from randomized clinical trials, and highlights differences in endocrine therapy effectiveness by ER-status of CBC.

Associations of tubal ligation and hysterectomy with serum androgen and estrogen metabolites among postmenopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study.

PURPOSE: Hysterectomy is associated with subsequent changes in circulating hormone levels, but the evidence of an association for tubal ligation is unclear. We evaluated whether circulating concentrations of androgens and estrogens differ by tubal ligation or hysterectomy status in postmenopausal women from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI)-Observational Study (OS). METHODS: Serum androgens and estrogens were measured in 920 postmenopausal women who did not use menopausal hormone therapy at the time of blood draw, of whom 139 self-reported a history of tubal ligation and 102 reported hysterectomy (with intact ovaries). Geometric mean hormone concentrations (GMs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with a history of tubal ligation or hysterectomy (ever/never), as well as time since procedures, were estimated using adjusted linear regression with inverse probability of sampling weights to account for selection. RESULTS: Circulating levels of 12 androgen/androgen metabolites and 20 estrogen/estrogen metabolites did not differ by tubal ligation status. Among women reporting prior hysterectomy compared to women without hysterectomy, we observed lower levels of several androgens (e.g., testosterone (nmol/L): GMyes 0.46 [95% CI:0.37-0.57] vs. GMno 0.62 [95% CI:0.53-0.72]) and higher levels of estrogen metabolites, for example, 2-hydroxyestrone-3-methyl ether (GMyes 11.1 [95% CI:8.95-13.9] pmol/L vs. GMno 8.70 [95% CI:7.38-10.3]) and 4-methoxyestrone (GMyes 6.50 [95% CI:5.05-8.37] vs. GMno 4.92 [95% CI:4.00-6.05]). CONCLUSION: While we did not observe associations between prior tubal ligation and postmenopausal circulating hormone levels, our findings support that prior hysterectomy was associated with lower circulating testosterone levels and higher levels of some estrogen metabolites, which may have implications for future hormone-related disease risks.

Mediation analysis using incomplete information from publicly available data sources.

Our work was motivated by the question whether, and to what extent, well-established risk factors mediate the racial disparity observed for colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in the United States. Mediation analysis examines the relationships between an exposure, a mediator and an outcome. All available methods require access to a single complete data set with these three variables. However, because population-based studies usually include few non-White participants, these approaches have limited utility in answering our motivating question. Recently, we developed novel methods to integrate several data sets with incomplete information for mediation analysis. These methods have two limitations: (i) they only consider a single mediator and (ii) they require a data set containing individual-level data on the mediator and exposure (and possibly confounders) obtained by independent and identically distributed sampling from the target population. Here, we propose a new method for mediation analysis with several different data sets that accommodates complex survey and registry data, and allows for multiple mediators. The proposed approach yields unbiased causal effects estimates and confidence intervals with nominal coverage in simulations. We apply our method to data from U.S. cancer registries, a U.S.-population-representative survey and summary level odds-ratio estimates, to rigorously evaluate what proportion of the difference in CRC risk between non-Hispanic Whites and Blacks is mediated by three potentially modifiable risk factors (CRC screening history, body mass index, and regular aspirin use).

COVID-19 and long-term impact on symptoms and Health-Related Quality of Life in Costa Rica: the RESPIRA cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence continues to accumulate regarding the potential long-term health consequences of COVID-19 in the population. To distinguish between COVID-19-related symptoms and health limitations from those caused by other conditions, it is essential to compare cases with community controls using prospective data ensuring case-control status. The RESPIRA study addresses this need by investigating the lasting impact of COVID-19 on Health-related Quality of Life (HRQoL) and symptomatology in a population-based cohort in Costa Rica, thereby providing a robust framework for controlling HRQoL and symptoms. METHODS: The study comprised 641 PCR-confirmed, unvaccinated cases of COVID-19 and 947 matched population-based controls. Infection was confirmed using antibody tests on enrollment serum samples and symptoms were monitored monthly for 6 months post-enrolment. Administered at the 6-month visit (occurring between 6- and 2-months post-diagnosis for cases and 6 months after enrollment for controls), HRQoL and Self-Perceived Health Change were assessed using the SF-36, while brain fog, using three items from the Mental Health Inventory (MHI). Regression models were utilized to analyze SF-36, MHI scores, and Self-Perceived Health Change, adjusted for case/control status, severity (mild case, moderate case, hospitalized) and additional independent variables. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the findings. RESULTS: Cases showed significantly higher prevalences of joint pain, chest tightness, and skin manifestations, that stabilized at higher frequencies from the fourth month post-diagnosis onwards (2.0%, 1.2%, and 0.8% respectively) compared to controls (0.9%, 0.4%, 0.2% respectively). Cases also exhibited significantly lower HRQoL than controls across all dimensions in the fully adjusted model, with a 12.4 percentage-point difference [95%CI: 9.4-14.6], in self-reported health compared to one year prior. Cases reported 8.0% [95%CI: 4.2, 11.5] more physical limitations, 7.3% [95%CI: 3.5, 10.5] increased lack of vitality, and 6.0% [95%CI: 2.4, 9.0] more brain fog compared to controls with similar characteristics. Undiagnosed cases detected with antibody tests among controls had HRQoL comparable to antibody negative controls. Differences were more pronounced in individuals with moderate or severe disease and among women. CONCLUSIONS: PCR-confirmed unvaccinated cases experienced prolonged HRQoL reductions 6 months to 2 years after diagnosis, this was particularly the case in severe cases and among women. Mildly symptomatic cases showed no significant long-term sequelae.

No Association of IFNL4 Genotype With Opportunistic Infections and Cancers Among Men With Human Immunodeficiency Virus 1 Infection.

BACKGROUND: IFNL4 genetic variants that are strongly associated with clearance of hepatitis C virus have been linked to risk of certain opportunistic infections (OIs) and cancers, including Kaposi sarcoma, cytomegalovirus infection, and herpes simplex virus infection. As the interferon (IFN) λ family plays a role in response to viral, bacterial, and fungal infections, IFNL4 genotype might affect risk for a wide range of OIs/cancers. METHODS: We examined associations between genotype for the functional IFNL4 rs368234815 polymorphism and incidence of 16 OIs/cancers among 2310 men with human immunodeficiency virus (2038 white; 272 black) enrolled in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study during 1984-1990. Our primary analyses used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for self-reported racial ancestry to estimate hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals, comparing participants with the genotypes that generate IFN-λ4 and those with the genotype that abrogates IFN-λ4. We censored follow-up at the introduction of highly effective antiretroviral therapies. RESULTS: We found no statistically significant association between IFNL4 genotype and the incidence of Kaposi sarcoma (hazard ratio, 0.92 [95% confidence interval, .76-1.11]), cytomegalovirus infection (0.94 [.71-1.24]), herpes simplex virus infection (1.37 [.68-2.93]), or any other OI/cancer. We observed consistent results using additive genetic models and after controlling for CD4 cell count through time-dependent adjustment or restriction to participants with a low CD4 cell count. CONCLUSIONS: The absence of associations between IFNL4 genotype and these OIs/cancers provides evidence that this gene does not affect the risk of disease from opportunistic pathogens.

Host, reproductive, and lifestyle factors in relation to quantitative histologic metrics of the normal breast.

BACKGROUND: Emerging data indicate that variations in quantitative epithelial and stromal tissue composition and their relative abundance in benign breast biopsies independently impact risk of future invasive breast cancer. To gain further insights into breast cancer etiopathogenesis, we investigated associations between epidemiological factors and quantitative tissue composition metrics of the normal breast. METHODS: The study participants were 4108 healthy women ages 18-75 years who voluntarily donated breast tissue to the US-based Susan G. Komen Tissue Bank (KTB; 2008-2019). Using high-accuracy machine learning algorithms, we quantified the percentage of epithelial, stromal, adipose, and fibroglandular tissue, as well as the proportion of fibroglandular tissue that is epithelium relative to stroma (i.e., epithelium-to-stroma proportion, ESP) on digitized hematoxylin and eosin (H&E)-stained normal breast biopsy specimens. Data on epidemiological factors were obtained from participants using a detailed questionnaire administered at the time of tissue donation. Associations between epidemiological factors and square root transformed tissue metrics were investigated using multivariable linear regression models. RESULTS: With increasing age, the amount of stromal, epithelial, and fibroglandular tissue declined and adipose tissue increased, while that of ESP demonstrated a bimodal pattern. Several epidemiological factors were associated with individual tissue composition metrics, impacting ESP as a result. Compared with premenopausal women, postmenopausal women had lower ESP [ß (95% Confidence Interval (CI)) = -0.28 (- 0.43, - 0.13); P < 0.001] with ESP peaks at 30-40 years and 60-70 years among pre- and postmenopausal women, respectively. Pregnancy [ß (95%CI) vs nulligravid = 0.19 (0.08, 0.30); P < 0.001] and increasing number of live births (P-trend < 0.001) were positively associated with ESP, while breastfeeding was inversely associated with ESP [ß (95%CI) vs no breastfeeding = -0.15 (- 0.29, - 0.01); P = 0.036]. A positive family history of breast cancer (FHBC) [ß (95%CI) vs no FHBC = 0.14 (0.02-0.26); P = 0.02], being overweight or obese [ß (95%CI) vs normal weight = 0.18 (0.06-0.30); P = 0.004 and 0.32 (0.21-0.44); P < 0.001, respectively], and Black race [ß (95%CI) vs White = 0.12 (- 0.005, 0.25); P = 0.06] were positively associated with ESP. CONCLUSION: Our findings revealed that cumulative exposure to etiological factors over the lifespan impacts normal breast tissue composition metrics, individually or jointly, to alter their dynamic equilibrium, with potential implications for breast cancer susceptibility and tumor etiologic heterogeneity.

Impact of overweight and obesity on US renal cell carcinoma incidence trends (1995-2018).

In the United States, renal cell carcinoma (RCC) incidence and the prevalence of obesity, an established risk factor for RCC, have been increasing for several decades. RCC is more common among older individuals. We sought to quantify the contribution of excess adiposity to the rising incidence of RCC among individuals 60 years or older. National Institutes of Health-American Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health Study data (n = 453 859 participants, enrolled in 1995-1996, age at enrollment 50-71 years) were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for RCC across body mass index categories and HRs associated with smoking. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated using estimated HRs and annual overweight/obesity prevalence from the National Health Interview Survey (1985-2008). PAF estimates were combined with RCC incidence from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-13 to calculate annual percent changes in RCC incidence attributable (and unrelated) to overweight/obesity. We found that between 1995 and 2018, among individuals aged 60 years and older, PAF for overweight/obesity increased from 18% to 29% for all RCCs. In comparison, the PAF for smoking declined from 12% to 9%. RCC incidence increased 1.8% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5%-2.1%) overall, while RCC incidence attributable to overweight/obesity increased 3.8% per year (95%CI 3.5%-4.2%) and RCC incidence unrelated to overweight/obesity increased 1.2% per year (95% CI 0.9%-1.4%). In conclusion, overweight/obesity appears to have contributed importantly to the rising incidence of RCC in the United States since the mid-1990s. Public health interventions focused on reducing overweight and obesity could help substantially in curbing this trend.

Autoimmune conditions and pancreatic cancer risk in older American adults.

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is highly fatal, and its incidence is increasing in the United States. Population-based registry studies suggest associations between a few autoimmune conditions and PC risk, albeit based on a relatively small number of cases. We conducted a population-based, nested case-control study to examine the associations between autoimmune conditions and PC risk within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER)-Medicare population. Incident primary malignant PC cases (n = 80 074) were adults ≥66 years and diagnosed between 1992 and 2015. Controls (n = 320 296) were alive at the time cases were diagnosed and frequency-matched to cases (4:1 ratio) by age, sex, and year of diagnosis. We used multivariable-adjusted, unconditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 45 autoimmune conditions identified from Medicare claims. Eight autoimmune conditions including ankylosing spondylitis (OR = 1.45; 95% CI: 1.14-1.84), Graves' disease (OR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.03-1.34), localized scleroderma (OR = 1.27; 95% CI: 1.06-1.52), pernicious anemia (OR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02-1.14), primary sclerosing cholangitis (OR = 1.37; 95% CI: 1.18-1.59), pure red cell aplasia (OR = 1.31; 95% CI: 1.16-1.47), type 1 diabetes (OR = 1.11; 95% CI: 1.07-1.15), and ulcerative colitis (OR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.07-1.31) were associated with increased PC risk (false discovery rate-adjusted P values <.10). In subtype analyses, these conditions were associated with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, whereas only ulcerative colitis was associated with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. Our results support the hypothesis that autoimmune conditions may play a role in PC development.

Biomarkers of gut barrier dysfunction and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in the REVEAL-HBV and REVEAL-HCV cohort studies.

Gut barrier dysfunction can result in the liver being exposed to an elevated level of gut-derived bacterial products via portal circulation. Growing evidence suggests that systemic exposure to these bacterial products promotes liver diseases including hepatitis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, prospective studies have not examined the association between biomarkers of gut barrier dysfunction and HCC risk in a population of hepatitis B or C viral (HBV/HCV) carriers. We investigated whether prediagnostic, circulating biomarkers of gut barrier dysfunction were associated with HCC risk, using the Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer (REVEAL)-HBV and REVEAL-HCV cohorts from Taiwan. REVEAL-HBV included 185 cases and 161 matched controls, and REVEAL-HCV 96 cases and 96 matched controls. The biomarkers quantitated were immunoglobulin A (IgA), IgG, and IgM against lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and flagellin, soluble CD14 (an LPS coreceptor), and LPS-binding protein (LBP). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between biomarker levels and HCC were calculated using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression. A doubling of the circulating levels of antiflagellin IgA or LBP was associated with a 76% to 93% increased risk of HBV-related HCC (OR per one unit change in log2 antiflagellin IgA = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.06-2.93; OR for LBP = 1.93, 95% CI: 1.10-3.38). None of the other markers were associated with an increased risk of HBV-related or HCV-related HCC. Results were similar when cases diagnosed in the first 5 years of follow-up were excluded. Our findings contribute to understanding the interplay of gut barrier dysfunction and primary liver cancer etiology.

Mortality among solid organ transplant recipients with a pretransplant cancer diagnosis.

Little is known about the outcomes among solid organ transplant recipients with a pretransplant cancer diagnosis. We used linked data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients with 33 US cancer registries. Cox proportional hazards models assessed associations of pretransplant cancer with overall mortality, cancer-specific mortality, and development of a new posttransplant cancer. Among 311 677 recipients, the presence of a single pretransplant cancer was associated with increased overall mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.19; 95% CI, 1.15-1.23) and cancer-specific mortality (aHR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.76-2.12); results for 2+ pretransplant cancers were similar. Cancer-specific mortality was not significantly increased for uterine, prostate, or thyroid cancers (aHRs were 0.83, 1.22, and 1.54, respectively) but strongly elevated for lung cancer and myeloma (aHRs were 3.72 and 4.42, respectively). A pretransplant cancer diagnosis was also associated with increased risk of developing posttransplant cancer (aHR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.23-1.40). Among 306 recipients whose cancer death was confirmed by cancer registry data, 158 deaths (51.6%) were from a de novo posttransplant cancer and 105 (34.3%) from the pretransplant cancer. Pretransplant cancer diagnoses are associated with increased mortality after transplantation, but some deaths are related to posttransplant cancers and other causes. Improved candidate selection and cancer screening and prevention may reduce mortality in this population.

Parathyroidectomy and the Risk of Major Cerebrovascular and Cardiovascular Events in the Elderly.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine the incidence of major cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in elderly patients with primary hyperparathyroidism (pHPT) and the impact of parathyroidectomy. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: pHPT is underdiagnosed and undertreated in the United States. It is associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk, but its association with cerebrovascular disease risk is not well-established. It is also unknown if parathyroidectomy reduces these risks. METHODS: The incidence of major cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events in 108,869 patients with pHPT diagnosed in the Medicare database between 2008 and 2018 and a matched comparison group of 1,088,690 Medicare subjects was prospectively evaluated. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) for the association of pHPT and parathyroidectomy for the risk of these outcomes from Cox proportional hazards models. Survival curves were calculated to obtain 5-year disease-free survival estimates. RESULTS: For patients with pHPT, five-year disease-free survival was lower, and HRs were higher than the comparison group for any outcome (75.9% vs. 78.4; HR 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.13), major cerebrovascular events (84.5% vs. 86.3%; HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.12-1.17), and major cardiovascular events (87.7% vs. 88.8%; HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.08). However, in patients who had parathyroidectomy, the risks of major cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events did not differ from the comparison cohort. The lower risk in patients who had parathyroidectomy was maintained in subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Older patients with pHPT have an increased risk of major cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events compared with patients without the disease. Physicians treating older patients with primary hyperparathyroidism should consider parathyroidectomy.R.M.P. and N.N. contributed equally to the preparation of this manuscript.

Assessing risk model calibration with missing covariates.

When validating a risk model in an independent cohort, some predictors may be missing for some subjects. Missingness can be unplanned or by design, as in case-cohort or nested case-control studies, in which some covariates are measured only in subsampled subjects. Weighting methods and imputation are used to handle missing data. We propose methods to increase the efficiency of weighting to assess calibration of a risk model (i.e. bias in model predictions), which is quantified by the ratio of the number of observed events, $\mathcal{O}$, to expected events, $\mathcal{E}$, computed from the model. We adjust known inverse probability weights by incorporating auxiliary information available for all cohort members. We use survey calibration that requires the weighted sum of the auxiliary statistics in the complete data subset to equal their sum in the full cohort. We show that a pseudo-risk estimate that approximates the actual risk value but uses only variables available for the entire cohort is an excellent auxiliary statistic to estimate $\mathcal{E}$. We derive analytic variance formulas for $\mathcal{O}/\mathcal{E}$ with adjusted weights. In simulations, weight adjustment with pseudo-risk was much more efficient than inverse probability weighting and yielded consistent estimates even when the pseudo-risk was a poor approximation. Multiple imputation was often efficient but yielded biased estimates when the imputation model was misspecified. Using these methods, we assessed calibration of an absolute risk model for second primary thyroid cancer in an independent cohort.

Menopausal hormone therapy and risk of biliary tract cancers.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) has a female predominance, whereas the other biliary tract cancers (BTCs) have a male predominance, suggesting that sex hormones may be involved in carcinogenesis. We sought to evaluate the association between menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) and the risk of BTC in women. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This nested case-control study was conducted in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Cases diagnosed between 1990 and 2017 with incident primary cancers of the gallbladder (GBC), cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), ampulla of Vater (AVC), and mixed type were matched to 5 controls on birth year, diagnosis year, and years in the general practice using incidence density sampling. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate ORs and 95% CIs for associations between MHT use and BTC type. The sample consisted of 1,682 BTC cases (483 GBC, 870 CCA, 105 AVC, and 224 mixed) and 8,419 matched controls with a mean age of 73 (SD, 11) years. Combined formulations (estrogen-progesterone) were associated with an increased GBC risk (OR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.08, 3.59). Orally administered MHT was associated with an increased GBC risk (OR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.24, 4.17). Estrogen-only formulations (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.34, 0.93) and cream or suppository administrations (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.34, 0.95) were associated with decreased CCA risk. The number of prescriptions, dose, duration of use, and time since last use were not associated with GBC or CCA risk. MHT use was not associated with risk of AVC or mixed cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Combination MHT formulations and oral administrations were associated with increased GBC risk, whereas estrogen-only formulations were associated with a lower CCA risk. MHT formulation and administration should be carefully considered when prescribing.