An HIV-1 risk assessment tool for women aged 15-49 in African countries: A pooled analysis across 15 nationally representative surveys.

BACKGROUND: Women in Africa disproportionately acquire HIV-1. Understanding which women are most likely to acquire HIV-1 can guide focused prevention with pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Our objective is to identify women at highest risk of HIV-1 and estimate PrEP efficiency at different sensitivity levels. METHODS: Nationally representative data were collected from 2015-2019 from 15 population-based household surveys. This analysis included women aged 15-49 who tested HIV-1 sero-negative or had recent HIV-1. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression models were fit with 28 variables to predict recent HIV-1. Models were trained on the full population and internally cross-validated. Performance was evaluated using area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and number needed to treat (NNT) with PrEP to avert one infection. RESULTS: Among 209,012 participants 248 had recent HIV-1 infection, representing 118 million women and 402,000 (95% CI: 309,000-495,000) new annual infections. Two variables were retained in the model: living in a subnational area with high HIV-1 viremia and having a sexual partner living outside the home. Full-population AUC was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.76-0.84); cross-validated AUC was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.75-0.84). At a sensitivity of 33%, up to 130,000 cases could be averted if 7.9 million women were perfectly adherent to PrEP; NNT would be 61. At a sensitivity of 67%, up to 260,000 cases could be averted if 25.1 million women were perfectly adherent to PrEP; the NNT would be 96. CONCLUSIONS: This risk assessment tool was generalizable, predictive, and parsimonious with tradeoffs between reach and efficiency.

Preferences for Hypertension Care in Malawi: A Discrete Choice Experiment Among People Living with Hypertension, With and Without HIV.

Hypertension is the most common non-communicable disease diagnosed among people in sub-Saharan Africa. However, little is known about client preferences for hypertension care. We performed a discrete choice experiment in Malawi among people with hypertension, with and without HIV. Participants were asked to select between two care scenarios, each with six attributes: distance, waiting time, provider friendliness, individual or group care, antihypertensive medication supply, and antihypertensive medication dispensing frequency (three versus one month). Eight choice sets (each with two scenarios) were presented to each individual. Mixed effects logit models quantified preferences for each attribute. Estimated model coefficients were used to predict uptake of hypothetical models of care. Between July 2021 and April 2022 we enrolled 1003 adults from 14 facilities in Malawi; half were living with HIV and on ART for a median of 11 years. Median age of respondents was 57 years (IQR 49-63), 58.2% were female, and median duration on antihypertensive medications was 4 years (IQR 2-7). Participants strongly preferred seeing a provider alone versus in a group (OR 11.3, 95% CI 10.4-12.3), with stronger preference for individual care among those with HIV (OR 15.4 versus 8.6, p < 0.001). Three-month versus monthly dispensing was also strongly preferred (OR 4.2; 95% CI 3.9-4.5). 72% of respondents would choose group care if all other facility attributes were favorable, although PLHIV were less likely to make this trade-off (66% versus 77%). These findings have implications for the scale-up of hypertension care in Malawi and similar settings.

Cost-effectiveness of approaches to cervical cancer screening in Malawi: comparison of frequencies, lesion treatment techniques, and risk-stratified approaches.

BACKGROUND: Recently-updated global guidelines for cervical cancer screening incorporated new technologies-most significantly, the inclusion of HPV DNA detection as a primary screening test-but leave many implementation decisions at countries' discretion. We sought to develop recommendations for Malawi as a test case since it has the second-highest cervical cancer burden globally and high HIV prevalence. We incorporated updated epidemiologic data, the full range of ablation methods recommended, and a more nuanced representation of how HIV status intersects with cervical cancer risk and exposure to screening to model outcomes of different approaches to screening. METHODS: Using a Markov model, we estimate the relative health outcomes and costs of different approaches to cervical cancer screening among Malawian women. The model was parameterized using published data, and focused on comparing "triage" approaches-i.e., lesion treatment (cryotherapy or thermocoagulation) at differing frequencies and varying by HIV status. Health outcomes were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and deaths averted. The model was built using TreeAge Pro software. RESULTS: Thermocoagulation was more cost-effective than cryotherapy at all screening frequencies. Screening women once per decade would avert substantially more deaths than screening only once per lifetime, at relatively little additional cost. Moreover, at this frequency, it would be advisable to ensure that all women who screen positive receive treatment (rather than investing in further increases in screening frequency): for a similar gain in QALYs, it would cost more than four times as much to implement once-per-5 years screening with only 50% of women treated versus once-per-decade screening with 100% of women treated. Stratified screening schedules by HIV status was found to be an optimal approach. CONCLUSIONS: These results add new evidence about cost-effective approaches to cervical cancer screening in low-income countries. At relatively infrequent screening intervals, if resources are limited, it would be more cost-effective to invest in scaling up thermocoagulation for treatment before increasing the recommended screening frequency. In Malawi or countries in a similar stage of the HIV epidemic, a stratified approach that prioritizes more frequent screening for women living with HIV may be more cost-effective than population-wide recommendations that are HIV status neutral.

A prospective cohort study identifies two types of HIV+ Kaposi Sarcoma lesions: proliferative and inflammatory.

Kaposi sarcoma (KS) is the most common cancer in people living with HIV (PLWH) in many countries where KS-associated herpesvirus is endemic. Treatment has changed little in 20 years, but the disease presentation has. This prospective cohort study enrolled 122 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive KS patients between 2017 and 2019 in Malawi. Participants were treated with bleomycin, vincristine and combination antiretroviral therapy, the local standard of care. One-year overall survival was 61%, and progression-free survival was 58%. The 48-week complete response rate was 35%. RNAseq (n = 78) differentiated two types of KS lesions, those with marked endothelial characteristics and those enriched in inflammatory transcripts. This suggests that different KS lesions are in different disease states consistent with the known heterogeneous clinical response to treatment. In contrast to earlier cohorts, the plasma HIV viral load of KS patients in our study was highly variable. A total of 25% of participants had no detectable HIV; all had detectable KSHV viral load. Our study affirms that many KS cases today develop in PLWH with well-controlled HIV infection and that different KS lesions have differing molecular compositions. Further studies are needed to develop predictive biomarkers for this disease.

Triple Benefit: Impact of an Integrated Early Childhood Development and PMTCT Intervention on ART Outcomes Among Mothers Living with HIV and Infants in Malawi-An Endline Evaluation.

We conducted a programmatic, observational cohort study with mother-infant pairs (MIPs) enrolled in prevention-of-mother-to-child-transmission (PMTCT) programs in Malawi to assess the feasibility and potential HIV-related benefits of integrating Early Childhood Development (ECD) services into PMTCT programs. Six health facilities were included in the intervention. We offered ECD counseling from the WHO/UNICEF Care for Child Development package in PMTCT waiting spaces while MIPs waited for PMTCT and broader treatment consultations. Primary outcomes were mothers' retention in HIV care at 12 months and infant HIV testing at 6 weeks and 12 months after birth. Routine facility-level data from six comparison health facilities were collected as an adhoc standard of care comparison and used to calculate the cost of delivering the intervention. A total of 607 MIPs were enrolled in the integrated ECD-PMTCT intervention between June 2018 and December 2019. The average age of MIPs was 30 years and 7 weeks respectively. We found that 86% of mothers attended ≥ 5 of the 8 ECD sessions over the course of 12 months; 88% of intervention mothers were retained in PMTCT versus 59% of mothers in comparison health facilities, and 96% of intervention infants were tested for HIV by six weeks compared to 66% of infants in comparison health facilities. Costing data demonstrated the financial feasibility of integrating ECD and PMTCT programs in government health facilities in Malawi. Integrating ECD into PMTCT programs was feasible, acceptable, resulted in better programmatic outcomes for both mothers and infants. Further investigation is required to determine optimal delivery design for scale-up.

Acceptability of a Combination Adherence Strategy to Support HIV Antiretroviral Therapy and Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Adherence During Pregnancy and Breastfeeding in Malawi.

In two parallel pilot studies, we implemented a combination adherence intervention of patient-centered counselling and adherence supporter training, tailored to support HIV treatment (i.e., antiretroviral therapy) or prevention (i.e., pre-exposure prophylaxis, or PrEP) during pregnancy and breastfeeding. Using a mixed-methods approach, we evaluated the intervention's acceptability. We investigated engagement, satisfaction, and discussion content via survey to all 151 participants assigned to the intervention arm (51 women living with HIV, 100 PrEP-eligible women without HIV). We also conducted serial in-depth interviews with a subgroup (n = 40) at enrollment, three months, and six months. In the quantitative analysis, the vast majority reported high satisfaction with intervention components and expressed desire to receive it in the future, if made available. These findings were supported in the qualitative analysis, with favorable comments about counselor engagement, intervention content and types of support received from adherence supporters. Overall, these results demonstrate high acceptability and provide support for HIV status-neutral interventions for antiretroviral adherence.

Depression, Alcohol Use, and Sexual Behaviors by HIV Infection Stage and Diagnosis Timing Among STI Clinic Patients in Lilongwe, Malawi.

Understanding depression, alcohol use, and sexual behaviors according to HIV infection stage and diagnosis timing is important for HIV prevention efforts. We enrolled persons with recent infection and diagnosis (i.e., acute HIV infection (AHI) (n = 92) persons newly diagnosed seropositive (n = 360)) and persons previously diagnosed with HIV (n = 190) into a randomized controlled trial in Lilongwe, Malawi (N = 641) and estimated the prevalence of probable depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 ≥ 5), hazardous alcohol use (Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test-C: men ≥ 4; women ≥ 3), and sexual behaviors (transactional sex, condomless sex). Compared with previously diagnosed participants, participants newly seropositive and those with AHI reported a higher proportion of probable depression (7%, 27%, 38%; AHI/Previous: Table Probability: 0.02, p < 0.01; AHI/New: Table Probability: <0.01, p < 0.01), hazardous alcohol use (8%, 18%, 29%; AHI/Previous and AHI/New: Table Probability: <0.01, p < 0.01), and transactional sex (5%, 14%, 20%; AHI/Previous: Table Probability: <0.01, p < 0.01; AHI/New: Table Probability: 0.06, p = 0.24), respectively. HIV prevention services addressing mental health and alcohol misuse may be particularly beneficial for persons with recent HIV infection and or diagnosis.

Tracing People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Who Are Lost to Follow-up at Antiretroviral Therapy Programs in Southern Africa: A Sampling-Based Cohort Study in 6 Countries.

BACKGROUND: Attrition threatens the success of antiretroviral therapy (ART). In this cohort study, we examined outcomes of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) who were lost to follow-up (LTFU) during 2014-2017 at ART programs in Southern Africa. METHODS: We confirmed LTFU (missed appointment for ≥60 or ≥90 days, according to local guidelines) by checking medical records and used a standardized protocol to trace a weighted random sample of PLHIV who were LTFU in 8 ART programs in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, 2017-2019. We ascertained vital status and identified predictors of mortality using logistic regression, adjusted for sex, age, time on ART, time since LTFU, travel time, and urban or rural setting. RESULTS: Among 3256 PLHIV, 385 (12%) were wrongly categorized as LTFU and 577 (17%) had missing contact details. We traced 2294 PLHIV (71%) by phone calls, home visits, or both: 768 (34% of 2294) were alive and in care, including 385 (17%) silent transfers to another clinic; 528 (23%) were alive without care or unknown care; 252 (11%) had died. Overall, the status of 1323 (41% of 3256) PLHIV remained unknown. Mortality was higher in men than women, higher in children than in young people or adults, and higher in PLHIV who had been on ART <1 year or LTFU ≥1 year and those living farther from the clinic or in rural areas. Results were heterogeneous across sites. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the urgent need for better medical record systems at HIV clinics and rapid tracing of PLHIV who are LTFU.

Community-facility linkage models and maternal and infant health outcomes in Malawi's PMTCT/ART program: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, 3 community-facility linkage (CFL) models-Expert Clients, Community Health Workers (CHWs), and Mentor Mothers-have been widely implemented to support pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBFW) living with HIV and their infants to access and sustain care for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT), yet their comparative impact under real-world conditions is poorly understood. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We sought to estimate the effects of CFL models on a primary outcome of maternal loss to follow-up (LTFU), and secondary outcomes of maternal longitudinal viral suppression and infant "poor outcome" (encompassing documented HIV-positive test result, LTFU, or death), in Malawi's PMTCT/ART program. We sampled 30 of 42 high-volume health facilities ("sites") in 5 Malawi districts for study inclusion. At each site, we reviewed medical records for all newly HIV-diagnosed PBFW entering the PMTCT program between July 1, 2016 and June 30, 2017, and, for pregnancies resulting in live births, their HIV-exposed infants, yielding 2,589 potentially eligible mother-infant pairs. Of these, 2,049 (79.1%) had an available HIV treatment record and formed the study cohort. A randomly selected subset of 817 (40.0%) cohort members underwent a field survey, consisting of a questionnaire and HIV biomarker assessment. Survey responses and biomarker results were used to impute CFL model exposure, maternal viral load, and early infant diagnosis (EID) outcomes for those missing these measures to enrich data in the larger cohort. We applied sampling weights in all statistical analyses to account for the differing proportions of facilities sampled by district. Of the 2,049 mother-infant pairs analyzed, 62.2% enrolled in PMTCT at a primary health center, at which time 43.7% of PBFW were ≤24 years old, and 778 (38.0%) received the Expert Client model, 640 (31.2%) the CHW model, 345 (16.8%) the Mentor Mother model, 192 (9.4%) ≥2 models, and 94 (4.6%) no model. Maternal LTFU varied by model, with LTFU being more likely among Mentor Mother model recipients (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.45; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14, 1.84; p = 0.003) than Expert Client recipients. Over 2 years from HIV diagnosis, PBFW supported by CHWs spent 14.3% (95% CI: 2.6%, 26.1%; p = 0.02) more days in an optimal state of antiretroviral therapy (ART) retention with viral suppression than women supported by Expert Clients. Infants receiving the Mentor Mother model (aHR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.52; p = 0.04) and ≥2 models (aHR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.20, 1.74; p < 0.001) were more likely to undergo EID testing by age 6 months than infants supported by Expert Clients. Infants receiving the CHW and Mentor Mother models were 1.15 (95% CI: 0.80, 1.67; p = 0.44) and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.50, 1.42; p = 0.51) times as likely, respectively, to experience a poor outcome by 1 year than those supported by Expert Clients, but not significantly so. Study limitations include possible residual confounding, which may lead to inaccurate conclusions about the impacts of CFL models, uncertain generalizability of findings to other settings, and missing infant medical record data that limited the precision of infant outcome measurement. CONCLUSIONS: In this descriptive study, we observed widespread reach of CFL models in Malawi, with favorable maternal outcomes in the CHW model and greater infant EID testing uptake in the Mentor Mother model. Our findings point to important differences in maternal and infant HIV outcomes by CFL model along the PMTCT continuum and suggest future opportunities to identify key features of CFL models driving these outcome differences.

Sexually transmitted infections (STI) and antenatal care (ANC) clinics in Malawi: effective platforms for improving engagement of men at high HIV risk with voluntary medical male circumcision services.

INTRODUCTION: Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), an effective HIV prevention programme for men, is implemented in East and Southern Africa. Approximately 50% of VMMC clients are aged below 15 years. More targeted interventions to reach older men and others at higher short-term HIV risk are needed. METHODS: We implemented a quality improvement project testing the effectiveness of an active referral-based VMMC recruitment approach, targeting men attending STI clinics and those escorting partners to antenatal care (ANC) clinics, at Bwaila Hospital in Lilongwe, Malawi. We compared the proportions aged older than 15 years among men who received VMMC following referral from STI and ANC clinics with those among men referred from standard community mobilisation. We also analysed referral cascades to VMMC. RESULTS: In total, 330 clients were circumcised after referral from STI (242) and ANC (88) clinics, as compared with 3839 other clients attributed to standard community mobilisation. All clients from ANC and STI clinics were aged over 15 years, as compared with 69% from standard community mobilisation. STI clinics had a higher conversion rate from counselling to VMMC than ANC (12% vs 9%) and a higher contribution to total circumcisions performed at the VMMC clinic (6% vs 2%). CONCLUSIONS: Integrating VMMC recruitment and follow-up in STI and ANC clinics co-located with VMMC services can augment demand creation and targeting of men at risk of HIV, based on age and STI history. This approach can be replicated at least in similar health facilities with ANC and STI services in close proximity to VMMC service delivery.