Analysis of national serological surveys for the documentation of freedom from porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome in Switzerland.

Results of national serological surveys for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) conducted in Switzerland in 2001 and 2004 were analyzed. In 2001, 41,124 breeding sows from 2,540 herds out of 6,406 were sampled, and in 2004, 7,498 animals were sampled from 1,074 herds out of 5,320. All serum samples were tested for PRRS using an ELISA developed at the Institute of Virology and Immunoprophylaxis (IVI), Switzerland with a sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of 94 and 97%, respectively. Positive samples were re-tested with a commercial ELISA (IDEXX) with Se of 100% and Sp of 99%. Samples positive in the second test were confirmed with the fluorescent antibody test (FAT). A stochastic model using data from the main survey conducted in 2001 was done to verify whether the sampling scheme used could detect at least one infected herd with 99% confidence level if the herd designed prevalence was at 0.1 or 0.2%. Additionally, a Bayesian approach was conducted to calculate the post-survey probability of freedom from PRRS using data from the 2001 and 2004 surveys. A Monte Carlo simulation with 5000 iteration was run for each model. Eleven samples in 2001 and six in 2004, all from different farms, could not be conclusively confirmed as negative by the FAT. All other samples were negative. Truly infected animals and herds were not predicted by a stochastic model at the 99% confidence level and 0.1% herd prevalence using data from the 2001 survey. However, it was demonstrated that the prior probability of freedom from PRRS increased from 89.3 to 99.2% after the 2001 survey. Upon completion of the 2004 survey, the probability of freedom from PRRS reached a value of 99.7%. Based on our results, we could conclude that the pig industry in Switzerland is free of PRRS virus with this level of confidence. Restricted import activities over the last decades are a possible explanation for the continuing absence of PRRS-infection in the Swiss swine population. Import requirements defined by the pig industry minimize the risk of introduction of PRRS-infected animals in the future.

Cost and sensitivity of on-farm versus slaughterhouse surveys for prevalence estimation and substantiating freedom from disease.

Within the framework of Swiss surveillance for epizootic diseases, dairy cattle are sampled using bulk tank milk while non-dairy cattle are sampled on the farm. The latter method is costly, time-demanding and dangerous for the personnel. However, slaughterhouses could be an alternative sampling point for this population. To assess the cost-effectiveness and sensitivity of such an approach, surveillance using slaughterhouse sampling was modelled with data from the 2012 Swiss animal movement database (AMD). We simulated a cross-sectional study for bluetongue (BT), and surveillance programmes to substantiate freedom from infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) and enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL) (combined) to compare the outcome of random on-farm sampling versus slaughterhouse sampling. We found that, under Swiss conditions, slaughterhouse sampling results in low herd-level sensitivities because animals are sent by owners to slaughter individually and not in large groups, restricting the number of samples per herd. This makes slaughterhouse sampling inappropriate for prevalence surveys at the herd-level. However, for prevalence surveys at the animal-level and for substantiation of freedom from disease, slaughterhouse surveillance is equally or more cost-efficient than on-farm sampling.

Demographic model of the Swiss cattle population for the years 2009-2011 stratified by gender, age and production type.

Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD). The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef), age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years). The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm). The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants).

Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) eradication in Switzerland--experiences of the first two years.

A national eradication programme was designed with the aim of achieving total freedom from bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) infection in the Swiss cattle population. The eradication programme consisted of testing every Swiss bovine for antigen, culling virus-positive animals and applying movement restrictions. Starting in 2008, the campaign achieved the goal of reducing the proportion of newborn calves that were virus-positive from 1.8% to under 0.2% within two years (situation in September 2010). Both good data flow between the parties involved as well as speed and efficiency (e.g. concerning the application of tests, movement restrictions and slaughter) are central to the success of the programme. Since the beginning of the programme 2.85 million cattle have been tested for bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV). The BVD-prevalence in cattle at the individual and herd levels following the implementation of the eradication programme was assessed. Using data collected during this campaign a risk factor analysis was conducted in order to identify factors associated with the appearance of virus positive newborn calves in herds where BVD had not previously been detected; these risk factors would allow targeting of future surveillance. Herd size, early death rate (i.e. the number of animals that either die before 15 days of age or are stillborn per number of newborns per year), buying in stock, using communal summer grazing, production type, age structure and management strategy were factors associated with the appearance of new cases of infection. Testing of newborn calves for antigen will continue to be conducted until the end of 2011, this is combined with outbreak investigation of newly infected herds (consisting of re-testing dams of virus-positive calves and if necessary all cattle on or that recently left the farm). This process is done to identify infected animals that may have been missed during prior testing (false negatives), it also serves to identify other factors that may be responsible for the introduction of BVDV onto the farm. Since October 2009, testing of calves for antigen combined with outbreak investigation has led to the detection of 55 infected animals that had tested negative (presumably false negative) during previous rounds of testing.

Risk scoring for setting priorities in a monitoring of antimicrobial resistance in meat and meat products.

Meat and meat products can be contaminated with different species of bacteria resistant to various antimicrobials. The human health risk of a type of meat or meat product carry by emerging antimicrobial resistance depends on (i) the prevalence of contamination with resistant bacteria, (ii) the human health consequences of an infection with a specific bacterium resistant to a specific antimicrobial and (iii) the consumption volume of a specific product. The objective of this study was to compare the risk for consumers arising from their exposure to antibiotic resistant bacteria from meat of four different types (chicken, pork, beef and veal), distributed in four different product categories (fresh meat, frozen meat, dried raw meat products and heat-treated meat products). A semi-quantitative risk assessment model, evaluating each food chain step, was built in order to get an estimated score for the prevalence of Campylobacter spp., Enterococcus spp. and Escherichia coli in each product category. To assess human health impact, nine combinations of bacterial species and antimicrobial agents were considered based on a published risk profile. The combination of the prevalence at retail, the human health impact and the amount of meat or product consumed, provided the relative proportion of total risk attributed to each category of product, resulting in a high, medium or low human health risk. According to the results of the model, chicken (mostly fresh and frozen meat) contributed 6.7% of the overall risk in the highest category and pork (mostly fresh meat and dried raw meat products) contributed 4.0%. The contribution of beef and veal was of 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. The results were tested and discussed for single parameter changes of the model. This risk assessment was a useful tool for targeting antimicrobial resistance monitoring to those meat product categories where the expected risk for public health was greater.

Efficiency of risk-based vs . random sampling for the monitoring of tetracycline residues in slaughtered calves in Switzerland.

In all European Union countries, chemical residues are required to be routinely monitored in meat. Good farming and veterinary practice can prevent the contamination of meat with pharmaceutical substances, resulting in a low detection of drug residues through random sampling. An alternative approach is to target-monitor farms suspected of treating their animals with antimicrobials. The objective of this project was to assess, using a stochastic model, the efficiency of these two sampling strategies. The model integrated data on Swiss livestock as well as expert opinion and results from studies conducted in Switzerland. Risk-based sampling showed an increase in detection efficiency of up to 100% depending on the prevalence of contaminated herds. Sensitivity analysis of this model showed the importance of the accuracy of prior assumptions for conducting risk-based sampling. The resources gained by changing from random to risk-based sampling should be transferred to improving the quality of prior information.

Use of mapping and statistical modelling for the prediction of bluetongue occurrence in Switzerland based on vector biology.

Due to the spread of bluetongue (BT) in Europe in the last decade, a sentinel surveillance programme was initiated for Switzerland in 2003, consisting of serological sampling of sentinel cattle tested for BT virus antibodies, as well as entomological trapping of Culicoides midges from June until October. The aim of this study was to create a 'suitability map' of Switzerland, indicating areas of potential disease occurrence based on the biological parameters of Obsoletus Complex habitat. Data on Culicoides catches from insect traps together with various environmental parameters were recorded and analysed. A multiple regression analysis was performed to determine correlation between the environmental conditions and vector abundance. Meteorological data were collected from 50 geo-referenced weather stations across Switzerland and maps of temperature, precipitation and altitude were created. A range of values of temperature, precipitation and altitude influencing vector biology were obtained from the literature. The final combined map highlighted areas in Switzerland which are most suitable for vector presence, hence implying a higher probability of disease occurrence given the presence of susceptible animals. The results confirmed the need for an early warning system for the surveillance of BT disease and its vectors in Switzerland.