Development of a risk prediction model to predict the risk of hospitalization due to exacerbated asthma among adult asthma patients in a lower middle-income country.

BACKGROUND: Asthma patients experience higher rates of hospitalizations due to exacerbations leaving a considerable clinical and economic burden on the healthcare system. The use of a simple, risk prediction tool offers a low-cost mechanism to identify these high-risk asthma patients for specialized care. The study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model to identify high-risk asthma patients for hospitalization due to exacerbations. METHODS: Hospital-based, case-control study was carried out among 466 asthma patients aged ≥ 20 years recruited from four tertiary care hospitals in a district of Sri Lanka to identify risk factors for asthma-related hospitalizations. Patients (n = 116) hospitalized due to an exacerbation with respiratory rate > 30/min, pulse rate > 120 bpm, O2 saturation (on air) < 90% on admission, selected consecutively from medical wards; controls (n = 350;1:3 ratio) randomly selected from asthma/medical clinics. Data was collected via a pre-tested Interviewer-Administered Questionnaire (IAQ). Logistic Regression (LR) analyses were performed to develop the model with consensus from an expert panel. A second case-control study was carried out to assess the criterion validity of the new model recruiting 158 cases and 101 controls from the same hospitals. Data was collected using an IAQ based on the newly developed risk prediction model. RESULTS: The developed model consisted of ten predictors with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.78 to 0.88, P < 0.001), sensitivity 69.0%, specificity 86.1%, positive predictive value (PPV) 88.6%, negative predictive value (NPV) 63.9%. Positive and negative likelihood ratios were 4.9 and 0.3, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The newly developed model was proven valid to identify adult asthma patients who are at risk of hospitalization due to exacerbations. It is recommended as a simple, low-cost tool for identifying and prioritizing high-risk asthma patients for specialized care.

Serious non-fatal unintentional injuries among in-school adolescents in Sri Lanka: results from the 2016 Sri Lankan global school-based health survey.

BACKGROUND: Unintentional injuries among adolescents is a major public health problem the world over. A great majority of the annual deaths among adolescents is due to unintentional injuries; it is also the leading cause of death among adolescents in the world. The aim of this study was to estimate the incidence of injuries and their associated factors among school going adolescents aged 13-17 years using data from the most recent Global School-Based Health Survey (GSHS) conducted in Sri Lanka. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted using a self-administered questionnaire, among 3262 adolescents attending government schools. The sample was selected through a two-staged cluster sampling technique. In the first stage, 40 schools were selected using probabilities proportional to school enrollment size, from all schools in the country that have classes in grades 8-12. Then, from the selected schools, classes were selected using systematic equal probability sampling with a random start. The weighted prevalence was calculated, and logistic regression analysis was conducted in order to determine the correlates. RESULTS: During the 12 months before the survey, 35.8% (95% CI-30.7 - 41.1) of the students reported being seriously injured one or more times. The injuries were more common among males, but were equally common among the two different age groups (13-15 age group vs 16-17 age group). The most common type of injury was cut or stab wounds (5.5%), followed by broken bones/dislocated joints (5.3%). Multivariable analysis revealed that only a few factors were associated with injury, such as being of the male sex, being bullied, being physically attacked, and/or being in a physical fight. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that the prevalence of serious unintentional injuries among school going adolescents is a major public health problem in Sri Lanka. This timely and comprehensive survey would help policy makers and researchers identify the unmet needs related to adolescent injuries. Furthermore, evidence generated form the study should be given due consideration when designing school-based interventions to prevent adolescent injuries.

Post-hospitalisation asthma management in primary care: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines recommend that patients admitted to hospital for asthma attacks are reviewed in primary care following hospital discharge. AIM: To evaluate asthma management in primary care following a hospital admission for asthma and its associations with patient characteristics. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective cohort study using English primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database and linked Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care data. METHOD: Patients with asthma aged ≥5 years who had at least one asthma-related hospital admission from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2019 were included. The primary outcome was a composite of any of the following delivered in primary care within 28 days from hospital discharge: asthma review, asthma management plan, asthma medication prescriptions, demonstration of inhaler technique, or smoking cessation counselling. The association between patient characteristics and delivery of clinical care was assessed using logistic regression. RESULTS: The study included 17 457 patients. A total of 10 515 (60.2%) patients received the primary outcome within 28 days of hospital discharge. There were 2311 (13.2%) who received an asthma review, 1459 (8.4%) an asthma management plan, 9996 (57.3%) an asthma medication, 1500 (8.6%) a demonstration of inhaler technique, and 52 (1.2% of smokers) had smoking cessation counselling. Patients from Black ethnic minority groups received less of this care (27%-54% lower odds, depending on age). However, short-acting bronchodilator prescriptions in the previous year were associated with an increased likelihood of the primary outcome. CONCLUSION: A significant proportion of patients do not receive timely follow-up in primary care following asthma-related admissions to hospital, particularly among Black ethnic minority groups.

Community-Based Study on Family-Related Contributory Factors for Childhood Unintentional Injuries in an Urban Setting of Sri Lanka.

A community-based descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out among children aged 1 to 4 years residing in an urban setting of Sri Lanka to assess the incidence and associated family-related factors of unintentional injuries. A total of 458 children were recruited using simple random sampling technique, giving a response rate of 91.6%. The incidence of unintentional injuries that needed medical attention during the study period of 3 months was 28.1 per 100 children (95% CI = 19.46-36.74). The factors that were significantly associated with the occurrence of unintentional injuries among children are low monthly income of the family (P = .045), low social support to the mother of index child (P = .022), nonauthoritative type of parenting of the mother of index child (P = .039), cared by person other than mother during day time (P = .002), frequent arguments between parents (P = .004), and frequent alcohol consumption of father (P = .001).