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2.
Nature ; 565(7738): 230-233, 2019 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30602788

RESUMO

Yemen is currently experiencing, to our knowledge, the largest cholera epidemic in recent history. The first cases were declared in September 2016, and over 1.1 million cases and 2,300 deaths have since been reported1. Here we investigate the phylogenetic relationships, pathogenesis and determinants of antimicrobial resistance by sequencing the genomes of Vibrio cholerae isolates from the epidemic in Yemen and recent isolates from neighbouring regions. These 116 genomic sequences were placed within the phylogenetic context of a global collection of 1,087 isolates of the seventh pandemic V. cholerae serogroups O1 and O139 biotype El Tor2-4. We show that the isolates from Yemen that were collected during the two epidemiological waves of the epidemic1-the first between 28 September 2016 and 23 April 2017 (25,839 suspected cases) and the second beginning on 24 April 2017 (more than 1 million suspected cases)-are V. cholerae serotype Ogawa isolates from a single sublineage of the seventh pandemic V. cholerae O1 El Tor (7PET) lineage. Using genomic approaches, we link the epidemic in Yemen to global radiations of pandemic V. cholerae and show that this sublineage originated from South Asia and that it caused outbreaks in East Africa before appearing in Yemen. Furthermore, we show that the isolates from Yemen are susceptible to several antibiotics that are commonly used to treat cholera and to polymyxin B, resistance to which is used as a marker of the El Tor biotype.


Assuntos
Cólera/epidemiologia , Cólera/microbiologia , Genoma Bacteriano/genética , Genômica , Vibrio cholerae/genética , Vibrio cholerae/isolamento & purificação , Humanos , Filogenia , Vibrio cholerae/classificação , Iêmen/epidemiologia
3.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 29(1): 149-153, 2023 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36573719

RESUMO

Africa's Lake Tanganyika basin is a cholera hotspot. During 2001-2020, Vibrio cholerae O1 isolates obtained from the Democratic Republic of the Congo side of the lake belonged to 2 of the 5 clades of the AFR10 sublineage. One clade became predominant after acquiring a parC mutation that decreased susceptibility to ciprofloxacin.


Assuntos
Cólera , Vibrio cholerae O1 , Humanos , Vibrio cholerae O1/genética , Tanzânia , Lagos , Cólera/epidemiologia , Genômica
4.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 28(6): 1241-1245, 2022 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35608654

RESUMO

After a lull of >20 years, Algeria experienced a cholera outbreak in 2018 that included 291 suspected cases. We found that outbreak isolates were Vibrio cholerae O1 serotype Ogawa from seventh pandemic El Tor sublineage AFR14, which corresponds to a new introduction of cholera into Africa from South Asia.


Assuntos
Cólera , Vibrio cholerae O1 , Argélia/epidemiologia , Cólera/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Pandemias , Vibrio cholerae O1/genética
5.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 27(1): 262-266, 2021 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33350910

RESUMO

Four cholera outbreaks were reported in the Central African Republic during 1997-2016. We show that the outbreak isolates were Vibrio cholerae O1 serotype Inaba from 3 seventh pandemic El Tor sublineages originating from West Africa (sublineages T7 and T9) or the African Great Lakes Region (T10).


Assuntos
Cólera , Vibrio cholerae O1 , África Ocidental , República Centro-Africana/epidemiologia , Cólera/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Pandemias , Vibrio cholerae O1/genética
6.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 24(5): 883-887, 2018 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29664387

RESUMO

Combining the official cholera line list data and outbreak investigation reports from the ministries of health in Uganda and South Sudan with molecular analysis of Vibrio cholerae strains revealed the interrelatedness of the epidemics in both countries in 2014. These results highlight the need for collaboration to control cross-border outbreaks.


Assuntos
Cólera/epidemiologia , Cólera/prevenção & controle , Epidemias , Cooperação Internacional , Humanos , Sudão do Sul/epidemiologia , Fatores de Tempo , Uganda/epidemiologia
7.
Trop Med Int Health ; 23(8): 834-840, 2018 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29851181

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To assess the performance of the SD Bioline Cholera Ag O1/O139 rapid diagnostic test (RDT) compared to a reference standard combining culture and PCR for the diagnosis of cholera cases during an outbreak. METHODS: RDT and bacterial culture were performed on site using fresh stools collected from cholera suspected cases, and from stools enriched in alkaline peptone water. Dried stool samples on filter paper were tested for V. cholerae by PCR in Lusaka (as part of a laboratory technology transfer project) and at a reference laboratory in Paris, France. A sample was considered positive for cholera by the reference standard if any of the culture or PCR tests was positive for V. cholerae O1 or O139. RESULTS: Among the 170 samples tested with SD Bioline and compared to the reference standard, the RDT showed a sensitivity of 90.9% (95% CI: 81.3-96.6) and specificity of 95.2% (95% CI: 89.1-98.4). After enrichment, the sensitivity was 95.5% (95% CI: 87.3-99.1) and specificity 100% (95% CI: 96.5-100). CONCLUSION: The observed sensitivity and specificity were within recommendations set by the Global Task Force for Cholera Control on the use of cholera RDT (sensitivity = 90%; specificity = 85%). Although the sample size was small, our findings suggest that the SD Bioline RDT could be used in the field to rapidly alert public health officials to the likely presence of cholera cases when an outbreak is suspected.


Assuntos
Cólera/diagnóstico , Testes Diagnósticos de Rotina/métodos , Fezes/microbiologia , Vibrio cholerae/isolamento & purificação , Humanos , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase , Kit de Reagentes para Diagnóstico , Zâmbia
8.
N Engl J Med ; 370(22): 2111-20, 2014 May 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24869721

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The use of vaccines to prevent and control cholera is currently under debate. Shanchol is one of the two oral cholera vaccines prequalified by the World Health Organization; however, its effectiveness under field conditions and the protection it confers in the first months after administration remain unknown. The main objective of this study was to estimate the short-term effectiveness of two doses of Shanchol used as a part of the integrated response to a cholera outbreak in Africa. METHODS: We conducted a matched case-control study in Guinea between May 20 and October 19, 2012. Suspected cholera cases were confirmed by means of a rapid test, and controls were selected among neighbors of the same age and sex as the case patients. The odds of vaccination were compared between case patients and controls in bivariate and adjusted conditional logistic-regression models. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated as (1-odds ratio)×100. RESULTS: Between June 8 and October 19, 2012, we enrolled 40 case patients and 160 controls in the study for the primary analysis. After adjustment for potentially confounding variables, vaccination with two complete doses was associated with significant protection against cholera (effectiveness, 86.6%; 95% confidence interval, 56.7 to 95.8; P=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, Shanchol was effective when used in response to a cholera outbreak in Guinea. This study provides evidence supporting the addition of vaccination as part of the response to an outbreak. It also supports the ongoing efforts to establish a cholera vaccine stockpile for emergency use, which would enhance outbreak prevention and control strategies. (Funded by Médecins sans Frontières.).


Assuntos
Vacinas contra Cólera/administração & dosagem , Cólera/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Vibrio cholerae , Administração Oral , Adolescente , Adulto , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Cólera/epidemiologia , Vacinas contra Cólera/economia , Fatores de Confusão Epidemiológicos , Armazenamento de Medicamentos , Feminino , Guiné/epidemiologia , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Vigilância da População , Adulto Jovem
10.
Diagn Microbiol Infect Dis ; 110(1): 116371, 2024 Jun 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38838459

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Vibrio cholerae non-O1/non-O139 (NOVC) bacteremia is infrequently reported in Western countries and is associated with unfavorable outcome. PATIENT/METHOD: We describe here the case of a diabetic patient with hepatic cytolysis and NOVC bacteremia following an episode of diarrhea. RESULT: The patient was paucisymptomatic and had a favorable resolution with oral ciprofloxacin. CONCLUSION: NOVC should be systematically sought in stool samples, particularly in immunocompromised patients, due to an increased risk of infection occurrence.

11.
Nat Microbiol ; 8(10): 1787-1798, 2023 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37770747

RESUMO

Since 2016, Yemen has been experiencing the largest cholera outbreak in modern history. Multidrug resistance (MDR) emerged among Vibrio cholerae isolates from cholera patients in 2018. Here, to characterize circulating genotypes, we analysed 260 isolates sampled in Yemen between 2018 and 2019. Eighty-four percent of V. cholerae isolates were serogroup O1 belonging to the seventh pandemic El Tor (7PET) lineage, sub-lineage T13, whereas 16% were non-toxigenic, from divergent non-7PET lineages. Treatment of severe cholera with macrolides between 2016 and 2019 coincided with the emergence and dominance of T13 subclones carrying an incompatibility type C (IncC) plasmid harbouring an MDR pseudo-compound transposon. MDR plasmid detection also in endemic non-7PET V. cholerae lineages suggested genetic exchange with 7PET epidemic strains. Stable co-occurrence of the IncC plasmid with the SXT family of integrative and conjugative element in the 7PET background has major implications for cholera control, highlighting the importance of genomic epidemiological surveillance to limit MDR spread.


Assuntos
Cólera , Vibrio cholerae O1 , Humanos , Cólera/epidemiologia , Vibrio cholerae O1/genética , Iêmen/epidemiologia , Plasmídeos/genética , Genômica
12.
C R Biol ; 345(1): 37-56, 2022 May 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35787619

RESUMO

In 2022, the burden of cholera-an acute watery diarrheal disease caused by Vibrio cholerae serogroup O1 (or more rarely O139) bacteria, which produce cholera toxin-remains high in many African and Asian countries. In the last few years, microbial genomics has made it possible to define the bacterial populations responsible for cholera more precisely. It has been shown that the current, seventh pandemic is due to a single lineage with a reservoir in the countries of the Bay of Bengal (India and Bangladesh). There have been several transmissions of the causal agent of cholera from this region to Africa, Asia and Latin America, suggesting a human-to-human transmission of the disease. Microbial genetics can help to fight this scourge by providing insight into cholera epidemiology and through its use in disease monitoring, thereby contributing to the achievement of the World Health Organization's goal of reducing cholera deaths by 90% by 2030.


En 2022, de nombreux pays d'Afrique et d'Asie restent des foyers épidémiques de choléra, maladie diarrhéique causée par la bactérie Vibrio cholerae de sérogroupe O1 (ou plus rarement O139) produisant la toxine cholérique. La génomique microbienne a permis ces dernières années de mieux définir les populations bactériennes responsables du choléra. Il a ainsi été montré qu'il n'existait qu'une seule lignée génétique de Vibrio cholerae O1 responsable de la septième pandémie dont le réservoir se situe dans la région du golfe du Bengale (Inde et Bangladesh). Plusieurs évènements de transmission de l'agent du choléra vers l'Afrique, l'Europe ou l'Amérique latine ont été identifiés et suggèrent une transmission interhumaine de la maladie. Les données issues des travaux de génomique microbienne ainsi que son utilisation pour la surveillance globale du choléra vont permettre de mieux lutter contre ce fléau et participer à l'objectif de l'Organisation mondiale de la Santé de réduire de 90 % les décès dus à cette maladie en 2030.


Assuntos
Cólera , Vibrio cholerae , Ásia/epidemiologia , Bangladesh/epidemiologia , Cólera/etiologia , Cólera/microbiologia , Genômica , Humanos , Vibrio cholerae/genética
13.
J Clin Microbiol ; 49(8): 3021-3, 2011 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21697327

RESUMO

Confirmation of a cholera epidemic is based on bacteriological identification of the agent and requires the sending of samples to a culture laboratory, often in countries with limited resources. Comparison of the use of filter paper with the use of Cary-Blair reference medium for stool transport showed that this simple transport medium is appropriate for the recovery of Vibrio cholerae.


Assuntos
Técnicas Bacteriológicas/métodos , Cólera/diagnóstico , Papel , Manejo de Espécimes/métodos , Vibrio cholerae/isolamento & purificação , Adulto , Cólera/microbiologia , Fezes/microbiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade
14.
Ann Biol Clin (Paris) ; 78(2): 181-186, 2020 04 01.
Artigo em Francês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32319946

RESUMO

A 70-year-old woman with no relevant medical history presented banal clinical signs of infectious gastroenteritis on her return from a trip to the Republic of the Union of Myanmar. The appearance of her stools and clinical findings were not suggestive of a typical case of cholera, but Vibrio cholerae was nevertheless isolated from her stools in the laboratory. The National reference center (NRC) for vibrios and cholera identified a Vibrio cholerae serogroup O1 (serotype Inaba) strain. The health authorities were notified of an imported case of cholera, identified on the basis of clinical, biological and epidemiological data. The diagnostic strategy used in the laboratory was based on a two-step algorithm involving molecular biological screening followed by culture on selective media for species identification. It was this approach, benefiting from the complementarity of the different techniques, that made it possible to reach a reliable rapid biological diagnosis of this atypical, but frequent form of the disease. The diagnosis of imported cases is of the utmost importance, because the mandatory signaling and notification of cases trigger investigations to check for additional cases among other exposed individuals or contacts of the patient, even though the risk of secondary transmission appears to be low in France. It also supplies data to international surveillance networks for cholera, which remains a serious disease and a major problem globally. This case highlights the importance of interactions between the various biological personnel and clinicians.


Assuntos
Cólera/diagnóstico , Gastroenterite/diagnóstico , Doença Relacionada a Viagens , Idoso , Diagnóstico Diferencial , Feminino , França , Humanos , Testes de Sensibilidade Microbiana , Mianmar , Fenótipo , Síndrome , Vibrio cholerae O1/isolamento & purificação
15.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 5347, 2020 10 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33093464

RESUMO

In 1970, the seventh pandemic of cholera (7 P) reached both Africa and Europe. Between 1970 and 2011, several European countries reported cholera outbreaks of a few to more than 2,000 cases. We report here a whole-genome analysis of 1,324 7 P V. cholerae El Tor (7 PET) isolates, including 172 from autochthonous sporadic or outbreak cholera cases occurring between 1970 and 2011 in Europe, providing insight into the spatial and temporal spread of this pathogen across Europe. In this work, we show that the 7 PET lineage was introduced at least eight times into two main regions: Eastern and Southern Europe. Greater recurrence of the disease was observed in Eastern Europe, where it persisted until 2011. It was introduced into this region from Southern Asia, often circulating regionally in the countries bordering the Black Sea, and in the Middle East before reaching Eastern Africa on several occasions. In Southern Europe, the disease was mostly seen in individual countries during the 1970s and was imported from North and West Africa, except in 1994, when cholera was imported into Albania and Italy from the Black Sea region. These results shed light on the geographic course of cholera during the seventh pandemic and highlight the role of humans in its global dissemination.


Assuntos
Cólera/história , Pandemias/história , Cólera/epidemiologia , Cólera/microbiologia , Farmacorresistência Bacteriana/genética , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Evolução Molecular , Genoma Bacteriano , Genômica , História do Século XX , História do Século XXI , Migração Humana/história , Humanos , Filogenia , Ribotipagem , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Vibrio cholerae/classificação , Vibrio cholerae/genética , Vibrio cholerae/isolamento & purificação
16.
Lancet Planet Health ; 4(12): e577-e587, 2020 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33278375

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Between 2014 and 2017, successive cholera epidemics occurred in South Sudan within the context of civil war, population displacement, flooding, and drought. We aim to describe the spatiotemporal and molecular features of the three distinct epidemic waves and explore the role of vaccination campaigns, precipitation, and population movement in shaping cholera spread in this complex setting. METHODS: In this descriptive epidemiological study, we analysed cholera linelist data to describe the spatiotemporal progression of the epidemics. We placed whole-genome sequence data from pandemic Vibrio cholerae collected throughout these epidemics into the global phylogenetic context. Using whole-genome sequence data in combination with other molecular attributes, we characterise the relatedness of strains circulating in each wave and the region. We investigated the association of rainfall and the instantaneous basic reproduction number using distributed lag non-linear models, compared county-level attack rates between those with early and late reactive vaccination campaigns, and explored the consistency of the spatial patterns of displacement and suspected cholera case reports. FINDINGS: The 2014 (6389 cases) and 2015 (1818 cases) cholera epidemics in South Sudan remained spatially limited whereas the 2016-17 epidemic (20 438 cases) spread among settlements along the Nile river. Initial cases of each epidemic were reported in or around Juba soon after the start of the rainy season, but we found no evidence that rainfall modulated transmission during each epidemic. All isolates analysed had similar genotypic and phenotypic characteristics, closely related to sequences from Uganda and Democratic Republic of the Congo. Large-scale population movements between counties of South Sudan with cholera outbreaks were consistent with the spatial distribution of cases. 21 of 26 vaccination campaigns occurred during or after the county-level epidemic peak. Counties vaccinated on or after the peak incidence week had 2·2 times (95% CI 2·1-2·3) higher attack rates than those where vaccination occurred before the peak. INTERPRETATION: Pandemic V cholerae of the same clonal origin was isolated throughout the study period despite interepidemic periods of no reported cases. Although the complex emergency in South Sudan probably shaped some of the observed spatial and temporal patterns of cases, the full scope of transmission determinants remains unclear. Timely and well targeted use of vaccines can reduce the burden of cholera; however, rapid vaccine deployment in complex emergencies remains challenging. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


Assuntos
Cólera/epidemiologia , Epidemias , Conflitos Armados , Cólera/prevenção & controle , Secas/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos Epidemiológicos , Feminino , Inundações/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Programas de Imunização/métodos , Incidência , Masculino , Dinâmica não Linear , Filogenia , Chuva , Sudão do Sul/epidemiologia , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Vibrio cholerae/genética , Sequenciamento Completo do Genoma/métodos
17.
J Clin Microbiol ; 47(5): 1364-71, 2009 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-19213700

RESUMO

We studied the evolution of Vibrio cholerae O1 during the 1991 to 2000 cholera epidemic in Mexico by biochemical, serological, and molecular characterization of strains collected during this period. Strains were divided into toxigenic and nontoxigenic groups according to the presence or absence of genes encoding cholera toxin. As previously reported, we characterized two populations among toxigenic strains, which were present from the first year of the epidemic. BglI rRNA analysis revealed that these strains had ribotype profiles, denoted M5 and M6 in our study, that were identical to those previously designated Koblavi B5 or Popovic 5 and Popovic 6a or Tamayo B21a, respectively. Ribotype M5 was isolated between 1991 and 1993. This ribotype had a low level of genetic variation as detected by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Ribotype M6 persisted from 1991 to 2000. However, PFGE profiles suggested that two epidemiologically unrelated strains coexisted within this single ribotype from 1995 until the end of the epidemic. We identified three new BglI ribotypes, Mx1, Mx2, and Mx3, from nontoxigenic V. cholerae O1 strains isolated between 1998 and 2000; one of them grouped strains positive for the toxin-coregulated pilus island. They differed from nontoxigenic clones isolated in Latin America and on the U.S. Gulf Coast and are probably autochthonous Mexican V. cholerae O1 variants. Most of these new variants were isolated from states surrounding the Gulf of Mexico, where the highest incidence of cholera in the country was recorded. Thus, the Mexican Gulf Coast, like the U.S. Gulf Coast, may act as an environmental reservoir of V. cholerae O1.


Assuntos
Cólera/epidemiologia , Cólera/microbiologia , Vibrio cholerae O1/classificação , Vibrio cholerae O1/isolamento & purificação , Técnicas de Tipagem Bacteriana , Toxina da Cólera/genética , Análise por Conglomerados , Impressões Digitais de DNA , DNA Bacteriano/genética , Eletroforese em Gel de Campo Pulsado , Genótipo , Humanos , México/epidemiologia , Polimorfismo Genético , Ribotipagem , Sorotipagem , Vibrio cholerae O1/genética
18.
Foodborne Pathog Dis ; 6(1): 49-56, 2009.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-18991540

RESUMO

There was an outbreak of cholera in Cameroon during 2004 and 2005; the epidemic began in Douala in January 2004 and spread throughout the south of the country. The World Health Organization (WHO) reported 8005 cases in 2004 and 2847 cases in 2005. Five hundred eighty-nine stool samples were received in the Pasteur Centre of Cameroon and 352 were microbiologically confirmed to be positive for Vibrio cholerae O1. Isolated strains were tested for their antimicrobial susceptibilities. All the strains were multidrug resistant and predominantly showed a common resistance pattern at the beginning of the outbreak. Tetracycline, recommended by the WHO for treating cholera in adults, was effective against all the strains tested. Cotrimoxazole (trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole), previously a first-line treatment in children, was ineffective in vitro for all the clinical isolates and was quickly replaced by amoxicillin. Ampicillin resistance emerged at the end of 2004 and was the leading resistance pattern observed in the second half of 2005. This therefore represented the second major resistance pattern. These two major resistance profiles were not associated with patient characteristics (sex and age) or to the geographic origin of strains. However, there was a highly significant relationship between resistance patterns and the year of isolation (p < 0.001). The strains possessed genes ctxA and ctxB encoding the two cholera toxin subunits and were very closely related, irrespective of their antimicrobial resistance patterns. They were not differentiated by molecular typing methods and gave similar ribotyping and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis patterns.


Assuntos
Antibacterianos/farmacologia , Cólera/microbiologia , DNA Bacteriano/análise , Farmacorresistência Bacteriana Múltipla , Vibrio cholerae O1/efeitos dos fármacos , Camarões/epidemiologia , Cólera/epidemiologia , Contagem de Colônia Microbiana , Surtos de Doenças , Eletroforese em Gel de Campo Pulsado , Fezes/microbiologia , Microbiologia de Alimentos , Humanos , Testes de Sensibilidade Microbiana , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase , Ribotipagem , Vibrio cholerae O1/genética , Vibrio cholerae O1/isolamento & purificação
19.
Ann Biol Clin (Paris) ; 76(1): 107-110, 2018 01 01.
Artigo em Francês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29313493

RESUMO

This is a case report about a 54-year-old man with hypovolemic shock, due to diarrhea and major vomiting after his return from India. The isolation of Vibrio cholerae serogroup O1 (Ogawa serotype) explains this typical clinical presentation of cholera, seen in 10% of cholera cases only. The patient had co-infection with Vibrio cholerae and Campylobacter coli. Co-infections appear to be frequent in endemic areas. The purpose of this case report is to recall the relevance of Vibrio isolation when the clinical context is evocative (diarrhea on travel return, raw sea food consumption).


Assuntos
Cólera/diagnóstico , Doença Relacionada a Viagens , Infecções por Campylobacter/complicações , Infecções por Campylobacter/diagnóstico , Infecções por Campylobacter/microbiologia , Campylobacter coli/isolamento & purificação , Cólera/complicações , Cólera/microbiologia , Coinfecção , Diarreia/diagnóstico , Diarreia/microbiologia , França , Humanos , Índia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Viagem , Vibrio cholerae/isolamento & purificação
20.
Lancet Glob Health ; 6(6): e680-e690, 2018 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29731398

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In war-torn Yemen, reports of confirmed cholera started in late September, 2016. The disease continues to plague Yemen today in what has become the largest documented cholera epidemic of modern times. We aimed to describe the key epidemiological features of this epidemic, including the drivers of cholera transmission during the outbreak. METHODS: The Yemen Health Authorities set up a national cholera surveillance system to collect information on suspected cholera cases presenting at health facilities. Individual variables included symptom onset date, age, severity of dehydration, and rapid diagnostic test result. Suspected cholera cases were confirmed by culture, and a subset of samples had additional phenotypic and genotypic analysis. We first conducted descriptive analyses at national and governorate levels. We divided the epidemic into three time periods: the first wave (Sept 28, 2016, to April 23, 2017), the increasing phase of the second wave (April 24, 2017, to July 2, 2017), and the decreasing phase of the second wave (July 3, 2017, to March 12, 2018). We reconstructed the changes in cholera transmission over time by estimating the instantaneous reproduction number, Rt. Finally, we estimated the association between rainfall and the daily cholera incidence during the increasing phase of the second epidemic wave by fitting a spatiotemporal regression model. FINDINGS: From Sept 28, 2016, to March 12, 2018, 1 103 683 suspected cholera cases (attack rate 3·69%) and 2385 deaths (case fatality risk 0·22%) were reported countrywide. The epidemic consisted of two distinct waves with a surge in transmission in May, 2017, corresponding to a median Rt of more than 2 in 13 of 23 governorates. Microbiological analyses suggested that the same Vibrio cholerae O1 Ogawa strain circulated in both waves. We found a positive, non-linear, association between weekly rainfall and suspected cholera incidence in the following 10 days; the relative risk of cholera after a weekly rainfall of 25 mm was 1·42 (95% CI 1·31-1·55) compared with a week without rain. INTERPRETATION: Our analysis suggests that the small first cholera epidemic wave seeded cholera across Yemen during the dry season. When the rains returned in April, 2017, they triggered widespread cholera transmission that led to the large second wave. These results suggest that cholera could resurge during the ongoing 2018 rainy season if transmission remains active. Therefore, health authorities and partners should immediately enhance current control efforts to mitigate the risk of a new cholera epidemic wave in Yemen. FUNDING: Health Authorities of Yemen, WHO, and Médecins Sans Frontières.


Assuntos
Cólera/epidemiologia , Epidemias , Vigilância da População , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Cólera/diagnóstico , Fezes/microbiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Chuva , Fatores de Risco , Vibrio cholerae/isolamento & purificação , Iêmen/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
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