Causes of deaths in neonates and children aged 1-59 months in Nigeria: verbal autopsy findings of 2019 Verbal and Social Autopsy study.

BACKGROUND: Nigeria has one of the highest under-five mortality rates in the world. Identifying the causes of these deaths is crucial to inform changes in policy documents, design and implementation of appropriate interventions to reduce these deaths. This study aimed to provide national and zonal-level estimates of the causes of under-five death in Nigeria in the 2013-2018 periods. METHODS: We conducted retrospective inquiries into the cause of deaths of 948 neonates and 2,127 children aged 1-59 months as identified in the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). The verbal autopsy asked about signs and symptoms during the final illness. The Physician Coded Verbal Autopsy (PCVA) and Expert Algorithm Verbal Autopsy (EAVA) methods were employed to assign the immediate and underlying cause of deaths to all cases. RESULT: For the analysis, sampling weights were applied to accommodate non-proportional allocation. Boys accounted for 56 percent of neonatal deaths and 51.5 percent of the 1-59-months old deaths. About one-quarter of under-5 mortality was attributed to neonatal deaths, and 50 percent of these neonatal deaths were recorded within 48 h of delivery. Overall, 84 percent of the under-5 deaths were in the northern geopolitical zones. Based on the two methods for case analysis, neonatal infections (sepsis, pneumonia, and meningitis) were responsible for 44 percent of the neonatal deaths, followed by intrapartum injury (PCVA: 21 percent vs. EAVA: 29 percent). The three main causes of death in children aged 1-59 months were malaria (PCVA: 23 percent vs. EAVA: 35 percent), diarrhoea (PCVA: 17 percent vs. EAVA: 23 percent), and pneumonia (PCVA: 10 percent vs. EAVA: 12 percent). In the North West, where the majority of under-5 (1-59 months) deaths were recorded, diarrhoea was the main cause of death (PCVA: 24.3 percent vs. EAVA: 30 percent). CONCLUSION: The causes of neonatal and children aged 1-59 months deaths vary across the northern and southern regions. By homing on the specific causes of mortality by region, the study provides crucial information that may be useful in planning appropriately tailored interventions to significantly reduce under-five deaths in Nigeria.

Health beliefs and (timely) use of facility-based care for under-five children: lessons from the qualitative component of Nigeria's 2019 VASA.

BACKGROUND: Nigeria's under-five health outcomes have improved over the years, but the mortality rates remain unacceptably high. The qualitative component of Nigeria's 2019 verbal and social autopsy (VASA) showed that caregivers' health beliefs about causes of illnesses and efficacious treatment options contribute to non-use/delay in use of facility-based healthcare for under-five children. This study explored how these health beliefs vary across zones and how they shape how caregivers seek healthcare for their under-five children. METHODS: Data for this study come from the qualitative component of the 2019 Nigeria VASA, comprising 69 interviews with caregivers of under-five children who died in the five-year period preceding the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS); and 24 key informants and 48 focus group discussions (FGDs) in 12 states, two from each of the six geo-political zones. The transcripts were coded using predetermined themes on health beliefs from the 2019 VASA (qualitative component) using NVivo. RESULTS: The study documented zonal variation in belief in traditional medicine, biomedicine, spiritual causation of illnesses, syncretism, and fatalism, with greater prevalence of beliefs discouraging use of facility-based healthcare in the southern zones. Driven by these beliefs and factors such as availability, affordability, and access to and perceived quality of care in health facilities, caregivers often choose one or a combination of traditional medicines, care from medicine vendors, and faith healing. Most use facility-based care as the last option when other methods fail. CONCLUSION: Caregivers' health beliefs vary by zones, and these beliefs influence when and whether they will use facility-based healthcare services for their under-five children. In Nigeria's northern zones, health beliefs are less likely to deter caregivers from using facility-based healthcare services, but they face other barriers to accessing facility-based care. Interventions seeking to reduce under-five deaths in Nigeria need to consider subnational differences in caregivers' health beliefs and the healthcare options they choose based on those beliefs.

Using propensity scores to estimate the effectiveness of maternal and newborn interventions to reduce neonatal mortality in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Nigeria is the largest country in sub-Saharan Africa, with one of the highest neonatal mortality rates and the second highest number of neonatal deaths in the world. There is broad international consensus on which interventions can most effectively reduce neonatal mortality, however, there is little direct evidence on what interventions are effective in the Nigerian setting. METHODS: We used the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) and the follow-up 2014 Verbal and Social Autopsy study of neonatal deaths to estimate the association between neonatal survival and mothers' and neonates' receipt of 18 resources and interventions along the continuum of care with information available in the NDHS. We formed propensity scores to predict the probability of receiving the intervention or resource and then weighted the observations by the inverse of the propensity score to estimate the association with mortality. We examined all-cause mortality as well as mortality due to infectious causes and intrapartum related events. RESULTS: Among 19,685 livebirths and 538 neonatal deaths, we achieved adequate balance for population characteristics and maternal and neonatal health care received for 10 of 18 resources and interventions, although inference for most antenatal interventions was not possible. Of ten resources and interventions that met our criteria for balance of potential confounders, only early breastfeeding was related to decreased all-cause neonatal mortality (relative risk 0.42, 95% CI 0.32-0.52, p <  0.001). Maternal decision making and postnatal health care reduced mortality due to infectious causes, with relative risks of 0.29 (95% CI 0.09-0.88; 0.030) and 0.46 (0.22-0.95; 0.037), respectively. Early breastfeeding and delayed bathing were related to decreased mortality due to intrapartum events, although these are not likely to be causal associations. CONCLUSION: Access to immediate postnatal care and women's autonomous decision-making have been among the most effective interventions for reducing neonatal mortality in Nigeria. As neonatal mortality increases relative to overall child mortality, accessible interventions are necessary to make further progress for neonatal survival in Nigeria and other low resource settings.

A strategic approach to social accountability: Bwalo forums within the reproductive maternal and child health accountability ecosystem in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: The majority of documented social accountability initiatives to date have been 'tactical' in nature, employing single-tool, mostly community-based approaches. This article provides lessons from a 'strategic', multi-tool, multi-level social accountability project: UNICEF's 'Social Accountability for Every Woman Every Child' intervention in Malawi. METHODS: The project targeted the national, district and community levels. Three Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) were engaged to carry out interventions using various tools to generate evidence and political advocacy at one or more levels. This article focuses on one of the social accountability methods - the bwalo forum (a meeting based on a traditional Malawian method of dialogue). A detailed political economy analysis was conducted by one of the co-authors using qualitative methods including interviews and group discussions. The authors conducted in-country consultations and analysed secondary data provided by the CSOs. RESULTS: The political economy analysis highlighted several ways in which CSO partners should modify their work plans to be more compatible with the project context. This included shifting the advocacy and support focus, as well as significantly expanding the bwalo forums. Bwalos were found to be an important platform for allowing citizens to engage with duty bearers at the community and district levels, and enabled a number of reproductive, maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health issues to be resolved at those levels. The project also enabled learning around participant responses as intermediate project outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The project utilised various tools to gather data, elevate community voices, and facilitate engagement between citizen and state actors at the community, district and national levels. This provided the scaffolding for numerous issues to be resolved at the community or district levels, or referred to the national level. Bwalo forums were found to be highly effective as a space for inter-level engagement between citizens and state; however, as they were not embedded in existing local structures, their potential for sustainability and scalability was tenuous. A key strength of the project was the political economy analysis, which provided direction for partners to shape their interventions according to local and national realities and be sensitive to the barriers and drivers to positive action.

Skilled attendant at birth and newborn survival in Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have shown higher neonatal mortality among births delivered by a skilled attendant at birth (SAB) compared to those who were not in sub-Saharan African countries. Deaths during the neonatal period are concentrated in the first 7 days of life, with about one third of these deaths occurring during the first day of life. We reassessed the relationship between SAB and neonatal mortality by distinguishing deaths on the first day of life from those on days 2-27. METHODS: We used data on births in the past five years from recent demographic and health survey (DHS) between 2010 and 2014 in 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The main categorical outcome was 1) newborns who died within the first day of birth (day 0-1), 2) newborns who died between days 2-27, and 3) newborns who survived the neonatal period. We ran generalized linear mixed model with multinomial distribution and random effect for country on pooled data. Additionally, we ran a separate model restricted to births with SAB and assessed the association of receipt of seven antenatal care (ANC) and two immediate postnatal care interventions on risk of death on days 0-1 and days 2-27. These variables were assessed as proxy of quality of antenatal and postnatal care. RESULTS: We found no statistically significant difference in risk of death on first day of life between newborns with SAB compared to those without. However, after the first day of life, newborns delivered with SAB were 16% less likely to die within 2-27 days than those without SAB (OR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.71-0.99). Among births with skilled attendant, those who were weighed at birth and those who were initiated early on breastfeeding were significantly less likely to die on days 0-1 (respectively OR = 0.42 95% CI = 0.29-0.62 and OR = 0.24, 95% CI 0.18-0.31) or on days 2-27 (OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.45-0.81 and OR = 0.59, 95% CI = 47-0.74, respectively). Newborns whose mothers received an additional ANC intervention had no improved survival chances during days 0-1 of life. However, there was significant association on days 2-27 where newborns whose mothers received an additional ANC interventions had higher survival chances (OR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.93-0.98). CONCLUSION: Findings demonstrate the vulnerability of newborns immediately after birth, compounded with insufficient quality of care. Improving the quality of care around the time of birth will significantly improve survival and therefore accelerate reduction in neonatal mortality in sub-Saharan African countries. Improved approaches for measuring skilled attendant at birth are also needed.

Beyond causes of death: The social determinants of mortality among children aged 1-59 months in Nigeria from 2009 to 2013.

BACKGROUND: Millions of children worldwide suffer and die from conditions for which effective interventions exist. While there is ample evidence regarding these diseases, there is a dearth of information on the social factors associated with child mortality. METHODS: The 2014 Verbal and Social Autopsy Study was conducted based on a nationally representative sample of 3,254 deaths that occurred in children under the age of five and were reported on the birth history component of the 2013 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey. We conducted a descriptive analysis of the preventive and curative care sought and obtained for the 2,057 children aged 1-59 months who died in Nigeria and performed regional (North vs. South) comparisons. RESULTS: A total of 1,616 children died in the northern region, while 441 children died in the South. The majority (72.5%) of deceased children in the northern region were born to mothers who had no education, married at a young age, and lived in the poorest two quintiles of households. When caregivers first noticed that their child was ill, a median of 2 days passed before they sought or attempted to seek healthcare for their children. The proportion of children who reached and departed from their first formal healthcare provider alive was greater in the North (30.6%) than in the South (17.9%) (p<0.001). A total of 548 children were moderately or severely sick at discharge from the first healthcare provider, yet only 3.9%-18.1% were referred to a second healthcare provider. Cost, lack of transportation, and distance from healthcare facilities were the most commonly reported barriers to formal care-seeking behavior. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal, household, and healthcare system factors contributed to child mortality in Nigeria. Information regarding modifiable social factors may be useful in planning intervention programs to promote child survival in Nigeria and other low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Direct estimates of cause-specific mortality fractions and rates of under-five deaths in the northern and southern regions of Nigeria by verbal autopsy interview.

Nigeria's under-five mortality rate is the eighth highest in the world. Identifying the causes of under-five deaths is crucial to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3 by 2030 and improving child survival. National and international bodies collaborated in this study to provide the first ever direct estimates of the causes of under-five mortality in Nigeria. Verbal autopsy interviews were conducted of a representative sample of 986 neonatal and 2,268 1-59 month old deaths from 2008 to 2013 identified by the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Cause of death was assigned by physician coding and computerized expert algorithms arranged in a hierarchy. National and regional estimates of age distributions, mortality rates and cause proportions, and zonal- and age-specific mortality fractions and rates for leading causes of death were evaluated. More under-fives and 1-59 month olds in the South, respectively, died as neonates (N = 24.1%, S = 32.5%, p<0.001) and at younger ages (p<0.001) than in the North. The leading causes of neonatal and 1-59 month mortality, respectively, were sepsis, birth injury/asphyxia and neonatal pneumonia, and malaria, diarrhea and pneumonia. The preterm delivery (N = 1.2%, S = 3.7%, p = 0.042), pneumonia (N = 15.0%, S = 21.6%, p = 0.004) and malaria (N = 34.7%, S = 42.2%, p = 0.009) fractions were higher in the South, with pneumonia and malaria focused in the South East and South South; while the diarrhea fraction was elevated in the North (N = 24.8%, S = 13.2%, p<0.001). However, the diarrhea, pneumonia and malaria mortality rates were all higher in the North, respectively, by 222.9% (Z = -10.9, p = 0.000), 27.6% (Z = -2.3, p = 0.020) and 50.6% (Z = -5.7, p = 0.000), with the greatest excesses in older children. The findings support that there is an epidemiological transition ongoing in southern Nigeria, suggest the way forward to a similar transition in the North, and can help guide maternal, neonatal and child health programming and their regional and zonal foci within the country.

Assessing pneumococcal revaccination safety among New York State Medicare beneficiaries.

OBJECTIVE: There have not been adequate studies of the safety of pneumococcal revaccination, especially for revaccination at intervals of less than five years. The objective of this study was to assess revaccination safety by determining whether pneumococcal revaccination is associated with greater utilization of postvaccination health care, compared with initial vaccination. METHODS: The authors conducted a retrospective cohort study of 119,990 New York State Medicare beneficiaries 65 years of age and older who received pneumococcal vaccinations from February 1, 1999, through December 17, 1999. The study used a multivariate regression model with three primary outcome measures-emergency room visits, hospitalizations, and office visits during the two weeks postvaccination. Secondary outcome measures were specific International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) codes potentially related to adverse vaccine reactions. RESULTS: Of 119,990 patients, 23,663 had previous claims for pneumococcal vaccination, including 13,466 for whom the revaccination interval was less than five years. After adjustment for demographic and comorbidity factors, revaccination at less than five years was associated with higher rates of emergency room visits (odds ratio [OR] = 1.17; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02, 1.34) and office visits (OR = 1.13; 95% CI 1.09, 1.18) during the two-weeks postvaccination, compared with initial vaccination. In addition, several ICD-9-CM codes that might indicate vaccine reactions were recorded more frequently for the revaccination group than for the comparison group. CONCLUSIONS: Because of potential policy implications, further investigation is needed of the causes and consequences of short-interval revaccination.

Improving physician coverage of pneumococcal vaccine: a randomized trial of a telephone intervention.

Improved pneumococcal vaccine (PPV) immunization for seniors is a national goal of the Medicare program. This study examined whether adding a simple telephone follow-up to an existing mailed physician performance feedback under the Medicare program would increase the impact on billed pneumococcal immunizations. Medicare fee-for-service claims data were used to select New York primary care physicians with high volume (n = 732) or African-American serving (n = 329) practices. All practices received mailed feedback on their 1999 Medicare practice specific PPV coverage rates, along with educational materials and offers of assistance. Practices were also randomized to receive telephone calls directing attention to the mailing and further promoting improvements in PPV coverage or no active follow-up. Physicians randomized to telephone follow-up showed significantly higher rates of practice specific PPV coverage in 2000 than those receiving the routine mailing only, and 27% vs. 17% (p = 0.01) of high volume physicians and 34% vs. 22% (p = .052) of African American serving physicians achieved at least a 5% increase in their cumulative PPV claims coverage. This study concludes that telephone follow-up is an effective and straightforward method to enhance the impact of practice specific feedback to promote improvements in Medicare PPV immunization. However, improved methods may be needed to induce a large percentage of physicians to change.

Mammography-facility-based patient reminders and repeat mammograms for Medicare in New York State.

BACKGROUND: Women who receive mammograms may fail to regularly return for repeat mammography. Many mammography facilities send annual patient reminders, but there are no large studies of their impact on overall mammography return rates, or by patient population subgroups. METHODS: Medicare claims data were used to identify New York women with claims for mammograms during a baseline and an 18-month follow-up period (1999-2000). Receipt of a second mammogram was examined in relation to whether the facility sends annual reminders, while controlling for other patient factors. RESULTS: Of 97,506 women studied, 76% attended facilities that send annual reminders. Of these women, 74% received a second mammogram within 18 months compared to 67% for other women. The impact of reminders was significant in all subgroups, but was less for women who were younger, minority, in Medicaid, in New York City or who received a diagnostic mammogram. In multivariate analysis, the adjusted odds ratio for return within 18 months if the facility uses reminders was 1.42 (95% CI 1.37-1.47). CONCLUSIONS: Annual patient reminders from mammography facilities are effective in increasing regular repeat mammography in Medicare women, although their impact is smaller in some groups. Facilities that do not currently send reminders should be encouraged to do so.