Population trends influence species ability to track climate change.

Shifts of distributions have been attributed to species tracking their fundamental climate niches through space. However, several studies have now demonstrated that niche tracking is imperfect, that species' climate niches may vary with population trends, and that geographic distributions may lag behind rapid climate change. These reports of imperfect niche tracking imply shifts in species' realized climate niches. We argue that quantifying climate niche shifts and analyzing them for a suite of species reveal general patterns of niche shifts and the factors affecting species' ability to track climate change. We analyzed changes in realized climate niche between 1984 and 2012 for 46 species of North American birds in relation to population trends in an effort to determine whether species differ in the ability to track climate change and whether differences in niche tracking are related to population trends. We found that increasingly abundant species tended to show greater levels of niche expansion (climate space occupied in 2012 but not in 1980) compared to declining species. Declining species had significantly greater niche unfilling (climate space occupied in 1980 but not in 2012) compared to increasing species due to an inability to colonize new sites beyond their range peripheries after climate had changed at sites of occurrence. Increasing species, conversely, were better able to colonize new sites and therefore showed very little niche unfilling. Our results indicate that species with increasing trends are better able to geographically track climate change compared to declining species, which exhibited lags relative to changes in climate. These findings have important implications for understanding past changes in distribution, as well as modeling dynamic species distributions in the face of climate change.

Length polymorphisms at two candidate genes explain variation of migratory behaviors in blackpoll warblers (Setophaga striata).

Migratory behaviors such as the timing and duration of migration are genetically inherited and can be under strong natural selection, yet we still know very little about the specific genes or molecular pathways that control these behaviors. Studies in candidate genes Clock and Adcyap1 have revealed that both of these loci can be significantly correlated with migratory behaviors in birds, though observed relationships appear to vary across species. We investigated geographic genetic structure of Clock and Adcyap1 in four populations of blackpoll warblers (Setophaga striata), a Neotropical-Nearctic migrant that exhibits geographic variation in migratory timing and duration across its boreal breeding distribution. Further, we used data on migratory timing and duration, obtained from light-level geolocator trackers to investigate candidate genotype-phenotype relationships at the individual level. While we found no geographic structure in either candidate gene, we did find evidence that candidate gene lengths are correlated with five of the six migratory traits. Maximum Clock allele length was significantly and negatively associated with spring arrival date. Minimum Adcyap1 allele length was significantly and negatively associated with spring departure date and positively associated with fall arrival date at the wintering grounds. Additionally, we found a significant interaction between Clock and Adcyap1 allele lengths on both spring and fall migratory duration. Adcyap1 heterozygotes also had significantly shorter migration duration in both spring and fall compared to homozygotes. Our results support the growing body of evidence that Clock and Adcyap1 allele lengths are correlated with migratory behaviors in birds.

Estimating colony sizes of emerging bats using acoustic recordings.

The decline of bats demands more widespread monitoring of populations for conservation and management. Current censusing methods are either prone to bias or require costly equipment. Here, we report a new method using passive acoustics to determine bat count census from overall acoustic amplitude of the emerging bat stream. We recorded the video and audio of an emerging colony of Mexican free-tailed bats from two cave locations across multiple nights. Instantaneous bat counts were calculated from the video frames, and the bat stream's acoustic amplitude corresponding to each video frame was determined using three different methods for calculating acoustic intensity. We found a significant link between all three acoustic parameters and bat count, with the highest R (2) of 0.742 linking RMS pressure and bat count. Additionally, the relationship between acoustics and population size at one cave location could accurately predict the population size at another cave location. The data were gathered with low-cost, easy-to-operate equipment, and the data analysis can be easily accomplished using automated scripts or with open-source acoustic software. These results are a potential first step towards creating an acoustic model to estimate bat population at large cave colonies worldwide.