The Association between Supraphysiologic Arterial Oxygen Levels and Mortality in Critically Ill Patients. A Multicenter Observational Cohort Study.

Rationale: There is conflicting evidence on harm related to exposure to supraphysiologic PaO2 (hyperoxemia) in critically ill patients.Objectives: To examine the association between longitudinal exposure to hyperoxemia and mortality in patients admitted to ICUs in five United Kingdom university hospitals.Methods: A retrospective cohort of ICU admissions between January 31, 2014, and December 31, 2018, from the National Institute of Health Research Critical Care Health Informatics Collaborative was studied. Multivariable logistic regression modeled death in ICU by exposure to hyperoxemia.Measurements and Main Results: Subsets with oxygen exposure windows of 0 to 1, 0 to 3, 0 to 5, and 0 to 7 days were evaluated, capturing 19,515, 10,525, 6,360, and 4,296 patients, respectively. Hyperoxemia dose was defined as the area between the PaO2 time curve and a boundary of 13.3 kPa (100 mm Hg) divided by the hours of potential exposure (24, 72, 120, or 168 h). An association was found between exposure to hyperoxemia and ICU mortality for exposure windows of 0 to 1 days (odds ratio [OR], 1.15; 95% compatibility interval [CI], 0.95-1.38; P = 0.15), 0 to 3 days (OR 1.35; 95% CI, 1.04-1.74; P = 0.02), 0 to 5 days (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.07-2.13; P = 0.02), and 0 to 7 days (OR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.11-2.72; P = 0.02). However, a dose-response relationship was not observed. There was no evidence to support a differential effect between hyperoxemia and either a respiratory diagnosis or mechanical ventilation.Conclusions: An association between hyperoxemia and mortality was observed in our large, unselected multicenter cohort. The absence of a dose-response relationship weakens causal interpretation. Further experimental research is warranted to elucidate this important question.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) outcomes in an LMIC tertiary care centre and performance of trauma scores.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluates post-ICU outcomes of patients admitted with moderate and severe Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) in a tertiary neurocritical care unit in an low middle income country and the performance of trauma scores: A Severity Characterization of Trauma, Trauma and Injury Severity Score, Injury Severity Score and Revised Trauma Score in this setting. METHODS: Adult patients directly admitted to the neurosurgical intensive care units of the National Hospital of Sri Lanka between 21st July 2014 and 1st October 2014 with moderate or severe TBI were recruited. A telephone administered questionnaire based on the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) was used to assess functional outcome of patients at 3 and 6 months after injury. The economic impact of the injury was assessed before injury, and at 3 and 6 months after injury. RESULTS: One hundred and one patients were included in the study. Survival at ICU discharge, 3 and 6 months after injury was 68.3%, 49.5% and 45.5% respectively. Of the survivors at 3 months after injury, 43 (86%) were living at home. Only 19 (38%) patients had a good recovery (as defined by GOSE 7 and 8). Three months and six months after injury, respectively 25 (50%) and 14 (30.4%) patients had become "economically dependent". Selected trauma scores had poor discriminatory ability in predicting mortality. CONCLUSIONS: This observational study of patients sustaining moderate or severe TBI in Sri Lanka (a LMIC) reveals only 46% of patients were alive at 6 months after ICU discharge and only 20% overall attained a good (GOSE 7 or 8) recovery. The social and economic consequences of TBI were long lasting in this setting. Injury Severity Score, Revised Trauma Score, A Severity Characterization of Trauma and Trauma and Injury Severity Score, all performed poorly in predicting mortality in this setting and illustrate the need for setting adapted tools.

Experiences of ICU survivors in a low middle income country- a multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Stressful patient experiences during the intensive care unit (ICU) stay is associated with reduced satisfaction in High Income Countries (HICs) but has not been explored in Lower and Middle Income Countries (LMICs). This study describes the recalled experiences, stress and satisfaction as perceived by survivors of ICUs in a LMIC. METHODS: This follow-up study was carried out in 32 state ICUs in Sri Lanka between July and December 2015.ICU survivors' experiences, stress factors encountered and level of satisfaction were collected 30 days after ICU discharge by a telephone questionnaire adapted from Granja and Wright. RESULTS: Of 1665 eligible ICU survivors, 23.3% died after ICU discharge, 49.1% were uncontactable and 438 (26.3%) patients were included in the study. Whilst 78.1% (n = 349) of patients remembered their admission to the hospital, only 42.3% (n = 189) could recall their admission to the ICU. The most frequently reported stressful experiences were: being bedridden (34.2%), pain (34.0%), general discomfort (31.7%), daily needle punctures (32.9%), family worries (33.6%), fear of dying and uncertainty in the future (25.8%). The majority of patients (376, 84.12%) found the atmosphere of the ICU to be friendly and calm. Overall, the patients found the level of health care received in the ICU to be "very satisfactory" (93.8%, n = 411) with none of the survivors stating they were either "dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied". CONCLUSION: In common with HIC, survivors were very satisfied with their ICU care. In contrast to HIC settings, specific ICU experiences were frequently not recalled, but those remembered were reported as relatively stress-free. Stressful experiences, in common with HIC, were most frequently related to uncertainty about the future, dependency, family, and economic concerns.

Interventions for improving critical care in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

PURPOSE: To systematically review the typology, impact, quality of evidence, barriers, and facilitators to implementation of Quality Improvement (QI) interventions for adult critical care in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched on 1st September 2022. The studies were included if they described the implementation of QI interventions for adult critical care in LMICs, available as full text, in English and published after 2000. The risks of bias were assessed using the ROB 2.0/ROBINS-I tools. Intervention strategies were categorised according to a Knowledge Translation framework. Interventions' effectiveness were synthesised by vote counting and assessed with a binomial test. Barriers and facilitators to implementation were narratively synthesised using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research. RESULTS: 78 studies were included. Risk of bias was high. The most common intervention strategies were Education, Audit & Feedback (A&F) and Protocols/Guidelines/Bundles/Checklists (PGBC). Two multifaceted strategies improved both process and outcome measures: Education and A&F (p = 0.008); and PGBC with Education and A&F (p = 0.001, p < 0.001). Facilitators to implementation were stakeholder engagement, organisational readiness for implementation, and adaptability of interventions. Barriers were lack of resources and incompatibility with clinical workflows. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence for QI in critical care in LMICs is sparse and at high risk of bias but suggests that multifaceted interventions are most effective. Co-designing interventions with and engaging stakeholders, communicating relative advantages, employing local champions and adapting to feedback can improve implementation. Hybrid study designs, process evaluations and adherence to reporting guidelines would improve the evidence base.

Prevalence of frailty and association with patient centered outcomes: A prospective registry-embedded cohort study from India.

PURPOSE: We aimed to study the prevalence of frailty, evaluate risk factors, and understand impact on outcomes in India. METHODS: This was a prospective registry-embedded cohort study across 7 intensive care units (ICUs) and included adult patients anticipated to stay for at least 48 h. Primary exposure was frailty, as defined by a score ≥ 5 on the Clinical Frailty Scale and primary outcome was ICU mortality. Secondary outcomes included in-hospital mortality and resource utilization. We used generalized linear models to evaluate risk factors and model association between frailty and outcomes. RESULTS: 838 patients were included, with median (IQR) age 57 (42,68) yrs.; 64.8% were male. Prevalence of frailty was 19.8%. Charlson comorbidity index (OR:1.73 (95%CI:1.39,2.15)), Subjective Global Assessment categories mild/moderate malnourishment (OR:1.90 (95%CI:1.29, 2.80)) and severe malnourishment (OR:4.76 (95% CI:2.10,10.77)) were associated with frailty. Frailty was associated with higher odds of ICU mortality (adjusted OR:2.04 (95% CI:1.25,3.33)), hospital mortality (adjusted OR:2.36 (95%CI:1.45,3.84)), development of stage2/3 AKI (unadjusted OR:2.35 (95%CI:1.60, 3.43)), receipt of non-invasive ventilation (unadjusted OR:2.68 (95%CI:1.77, 4.03)), receipt of vasopressors (unadjusted OR:1.47 (95%CI:1.04, 2.07)), and receipt of kidney replacement therapy (unadjusted OR:3.15 (95%CI:1.90, 5.17)). CONCLUSIONS: Frailty is common among critically ill patients in India and is associated with worse outcomes. STUDY REGISTRATION: CTRI/2021/02/031503.

Protocol and statistical analysis plan for the mega randomised registry trial comparing conservative vs. liberal oxygenation targets in adults with sepsis in the intensive care unit (Mega-ROX Sepsis).

Background: The effect of conservative vs. liberal oxygen therapy on 90-day in-hospital mortality in adults with sepsis receiving unplanned invasive mechanical ventilation in the intensive care unit (ICU) is uncertain. Objective: The objective of this study was to summarise the protocol and statistical analysis plan for the Mega-ROX Sepsis trial. Design setting and participants: The Mega-ROX Sepsis trial is an international randomised clinical trial that will be conducted within an overarching 40,000-patient registry-embedded clinical trial comparing conservative and liberal ICU oxygen therapy regimens. We anticipate that between 10,000 and 13,000 patients with sepsis who are receiving unplanned invasive mechanical ventilation in the ICU will be enrolled in this trial. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome is in-hospital all-cause mortality up to 90 days from the date of randomisation. Secondary outcomes include duration of survival, duration of mechanical ventilation, ICU length of stay, hospital length of stay, and the proportion of patients discharged home. Results and conclusions: Mega-ROX Sepsis will compare the effect of conservative vs. liberal oxygen therapy on 90-day in-hospital mortality in adults with sepsis who are receiving unplanned invasive mechanical ventilation in the ICU. The protocol and a prespecified approach to analyses are reported here to mitigate analysis bias.

Protocol and statistical analysis plan for the mega randomised registry trial comparing conservative vs. liberal oxygenation targets in adults with nonhypoxic ischaemic acute brain injuries and conditions in the intensive care unit (Mega-ROX Brains).

Background: The effect of conservative vs. liberal oxygen therapy on 90-day in-hospital mortality in adults who have nonhypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy acute brain injuries and conditions and are receiving invasive mechanical ventilation in the intensive care unit (ICU) is uncertain. Objective: The objective of this study was to summarise the protocol and statistical analysis plan for the Mega-ROX Brains trial. Design setting and participants: Mega-ROX Brains is an international randomised clinical trial, which will be conducted within an overarching 40,000-participant, registry-embedded clinical trial comparing conservative and liberal ICU oxygen therapy regimens. We expect to enrol between 7500 and 9500 participants with nonhypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy acute brain injuries and conditions who are receiving unplanned invasive mechanical ventilation in the ICU. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome is in-hospital all-cause mortality up to 90 d from the date of randomisation. Secondary outcomes include duration of survival, duration of mechanical ventilation, ICU length of stay, hospital length of stay, and the proportion of participants discharged home. Results and conclusions: Mega-ROX Brains will compare the effect of conservative vs. liberal oxygen therapy regimens on 90-day in-hospital mortality in adults in the ICU with acute brain injuries and conditions. The protocol and planned analyses are reported here to mitigate analysis bias. Trial Registration: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN 12620000391976).

Mixed methods study protocol for combining stakeholder-led rapid evaluation with near real-time continuous registry data to facilitate evaluations of quality of care in intensive care units.

Background: Improved access to healthcare in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has not equated to improved health outcomes. Absence or unsustained quality of care is partly to blame. Improving outcomes in intensive care units (ICUs) requires delivery of complex interventions by multiple specialties working in concert, and the simultaneous prevention of avoidable harms associated with the illness and the treatment interventions. Therefore, successful design and implementation of improvement interventions requires understanding of the behavioural, organisational, and external factors that determine care delivery and the likelihood of achieving sustained improvement. We aim to identify care processes that contribute to suboptimal clinical outcomes in ICUs located in LMICs and to establish barriers and enablers for improving the care processes. Methods: Using rapid evaluation methods, we will use four data collection methods: 1) registry embedded indicators to assess quality of care processes and their associated outcomes; 2) process mapping to provide a preliminary framework to understand gaps between current and desired care practices; 3) structured observations of processes of interest identified from the process mapping and; 4) focus group discussions with stakeholders to identify barriers and enablers influencing the gap between current and desired care practices. We will also collect self-assessments of readiness for quality improvement. Data collection and analysis will be led by local stakeholders, performed in parallel and through an iterative process across eight countries: Kenya, India, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, South Africa, Uganda and Vietnam. Conclusions: The results of our study will provide essential information on where and how care processes can be improved to facilitate better quality of care to critically ill patients in LMICs; thus, reduce preventable mortality and morbidity in ICUs. Furthermore, understanding the rapid evaluation methods that will be used for this study will allow other researchers and healthcare professionals to carry out similar research in ICUs and other health services.

Clinician preference instrumental variable analysis of the effectiveness of magnesium supplementation for atrial fibrillation prophylaxis in critical care.

Atrial fibrillation is a frequently encountered condition in critical illness and causes adverse effects including haemodynamic decompensation, stroke and prolonged hospital stay. It is a common practice in critical care to supplement serum magnesium for the purpose of preventing episodes of atrial fibrillation. However, no randomised studies support this practice in the non-cardiac surgery critical care population, and the effectiveness of magnesium supplementation is unclear. We sought to investigate the effectiveness of magnesium supplementation in preventing the onset of atrial fibrillation in a mixed critical care population. We conducted a single centre retrospective observational study of adult critical care patients. We utilised a natural experiment design, using the supplementation preference of the bedside critical care nurse as an instrumental variable. Using routinely collected electronic patient data, magnesium supplementation opportunities were defined and linked to the bedside nurse. Nurse preference for administering magnesium was obtained using multilevel modelling. The results were used to define "liberal" and "restrictive" supplementation groups, which were inputted into an instrumental variable regression to obtain an estimate of the effect of magnesium supplementation. 9114 magnesium supplementation opportunities were analysed, representing 2137 critical care admissions for 1914 patients. There was significant variation in magnesium supplementation practices attributable to the individual nurse, after accounting for covariates. The instrumental variable analysis showed magnesium supplementation was associated with a 3% decreased relative risk of experiencing an atrial fibrillation event (95% CI - 0.06 to - 0.004, p = 0.03). This study supports the strategy of routine supplementation, but further work is required to identify optimal serum magnesium targets for atrial fibrillation prophylaxis.

ISARIC-COVID-19 dataset: A Prospective, Standardized, Global Dataset of Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19.

The International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) COVID-19 dataset is one of the largest international databases of prospectively collected clinical data on people hospitalized with COVID-19. This dataset was compiled during the COVID-19 pandemic by a network of hospitals that collect data using the ISARIC-World Health Organization Clinical Characterization Protocol and data tools. The database includes data from more than 705,000 patients, collected in more than 60 countries and 1,500 centres worldwide. Patient data are available from acute hospital admissions with COVID-19 and outpatient follow-ups. The data include signs and symptoms, pre-existing comorbidities, vital signs, chronic and acute treatments, complications, dates of hospitalization and discharge, mortality, viral strains, vaccination status, and other data. Here, we present the dataset characteristics, explain its architecture and how to gain access, and provide tools to facilitate its use.

An international observational study to assess the impact of the Omicron variant emergence on the clinical epidemiology of COVID-19 in hospitalised patients.

Background: Whilst timely clinical characterisation of infections caused by novel SARS-CoV-2 variants is necessary for evidence-based policy response, individual-level data on infecting variants are typically only available for a minority of patients and settings. Methods: Here, we propose an innovative approach to study changes in COVID-19 hospital presentation and outcomes after the Omicron variant emergence using publicly available population-level data on variant relative frequency to infer SARS-CoV-2 variants likely responsible for clinical cases. We apply this method to data collected by a large international clinical consortium before and after the emergence of the Omicron variant in different countries. Results: Our analysis, that includes more than 100,000 patients from 28 countries, suggests that in many settings patients hospitalised with Omicron variant infection less often presented with commonly reported symptoms compared to patients infected with pre-Omicron variants. Patients with COVID-19 admitted to hospital after Omicron variant emergence had lower mortality compared to patients admitted during the period when Omicron variant was responsible for only a minority of infections (odds ratio in a mixed-effects logistic regression adjusted for likely confounders, 0.67 [95% confidence interval 0.61-0.75]). Qualitatively similar findings were observed in sensitivity analyses with different assumptions on population-level Omicron variant relative frequencies, and in analyses using available individual-level data on infecting variant for a subset of the study population. Conclusions: Although clinical studies with matching viral genomic information should remain a priority, our approach combining publicly available data on variant frequency and a multi-country clinical characterisation dataset with more than 100,000 records allowed analysis of data from a wide range of settings and novel insights on real-world heterogeneity of COVID-19 presentation and clinical outcome. Funding: Bronner P. Gonçalves, Peter Horby, Gail Carson, Piero L. Olliaro, Valeria Balan, Barbara Wanjiru Citarella, and research costs were supported by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and Wellcome [215091/Z/18/Z, 222410/Z/21/Z, 225288/Z/22/Z]; and Janice Caoili and Madiha Hashmi were supported by the UK FCDO and Wellcome [222048/Z/20/Z]. Peter Horby, Gail Carson, Piero L. Olliaro, Kalynn Kennon and Joaquin Baruch were supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1209135]; Laura Merson was supported by University of Oxford's COVID-19 Research Response Fund - with thanks to its donors for their philanthropic support. Matthew Hall was supported by a Li Ka Shing Foundation award to Christophe Fraser. Moritz U.G. Kraemer was supported by the Branco Weiss Fellowship, Google.org, the Oxford Martin School, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the European Union Horizon 2020 project MOOD (#874850). The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission. Contributions from Srinivas Murthy, Asgar Rishu, Rob Fowler, James Joshua Douglas, François Martin Carrier were supported by CIHR Coronavirus Rapid Research Funding Opportunity OV2170359 and coordinated out of Sunnybrook Research Institute. Contributions from Evert-Jan Wils and David S.Y. Ong were supported by a grant from foundation Bevordering Onderzoek Franciscus; and Andrea Angheben by the Italian Ministry of Health "Fondi Ricerca corrente-L1P6" to IRCCS Ospedale Sacro Cuore-Don Calabria. The data contributions of J.Kenneth Baillie, Malcolm G. Semple, and Ewen M. Harrison were supported by grants from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR; award CO-CIN-01), the Medical Research Council (MRC; grant MC_PC_19059), and by the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool in partnership with Public Health England (PHE) (award 200907), NIHR HPRU in Respiratory Infections at Imperial College London with PHE (award 200927), Liverpool Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre (grant C18616/A25153), NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at Imperial College London (award IS-BRC-1215-20013), and NIHR Clinical Research Network providing infrastructure support. All funders of the ISARIC Clinical Characterisation Group are listed in the appendix.

Impact of COVID-19 on non-COVID intensive care unit service utilization, case mix and outcomes: A registry-based analysis from India.

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been responsible for over 3.4 million deaths globally and over 25 million cases in India. As part of the response, India imposed a nation-wide lockdown and prioritized COVID-19 care in hospitals and intensive care units (ICUs). Leveraging data from the Indian Registry of IntenSive care, we sought to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on critical care service utilization, case-mix, and clinical outcomes in non-COVID ICUs.  Methods: We included all consecutive patients admitted between 1 st October 2019 and 27 th September 2020. Data were extracted from the registry database and included patients admitted to the non-COVID or general ICUs at each of the sites. Outcomes included measures of resource-availability, utilisation, case-mix, acuity, and demand for ICU beds. We used a Mann-Whitney test to compare the pre-pandemic period (October 2019 - February 2020) to the pandemic period (March-September 2020). In addition, we also compared the period of intense lockdown (March-May 31 st 2020) with the pre-pandemic period. Results: There were 3424 patient encounters in the pre-pandemic period and 3524 encounters in the pandemic period. Comparing these periods, weekly admissions declined (median [Q1 Q3] 160 [145,168] to 113 [98.5,134]; p=0.00002); unit turnover declined (median [Q1 Q3] 12.1 [11.32,13] to 8.58 [7.24,10], p<0.00001), and APACHE II score increased (median [Q1 Q3] 19 [19,20] to 21 [20,22] ; p<0.00001). Unadjusted ICU mortality increased (9.3% to 11.7%, p=0.01519) and the length of ICU stay was similar (median [Q1 Q3] 2.11 [2, 2] vs. 2.24 [2, 3] days; p=0.15096). Conclusion: Our registry-based analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on non-COVID critical care demonstrates significant disruptions to healthcare utilization during the pandemic and an increase in the severity of illness.

Validation of a simplified risk prediction model using a cloud based critical care registry in a lower-middle income country.

BACKGROUND: The use of severity of illness scoring systems such as the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation in lower-middle income settings comes with important limitations, primarily due to data burden, missingness of key variables and lack of resources. To overcome these challenges, in Asia, a simplified model, designated as e-TropICS was previously developed. We sought to externally validate this model using data from a multi-centre critical care registry in India. METHODS: Seven ICUs from the Indian Registry of IntenSive care(IRIS) contributed data to this study. Patients > 18 years of age with an ICU length of stay > 6 hours were included. Data including age, gender, co-morbidity, diagnostic category, type of admission, vital signs, laboratory measurements and outcomes were collected for all admissions. e-TropICS was calculated as per original methods. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was used to express the model's power to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors. For all tests of significance, a 2-sided P less than or equal to 0.05 was considered to be significant. AUROC values were considered poor when ≤ to 0.70, adequate between 0.71 to 0.80, good between 0.81 to 0.90, and excellent at 0.91 or higher. Calibration was assessed using Hosmer-Lemeshow C -statistic. RESULTS: We included data from 2062 consecutive patient episodes. The median age of the cohort was 60 and predominantly male (n = 1350, 65.47%). Mechanical Ventilation and vasopressors were administered at admission in 504 (24.44%) and 423 (20.51%) patients respectively. Overall, mortality at ICU discharge was 10.28% (n = 212). Discrimination (AUC) for the e-TropICS model was 0.83 (95% CI 0.812-0.839) with an HL C statistic p value of < 0.05. The best sensitivity and specificity (84% and 72% respectively) were achieved with the model at an optimal cut-off for probability of 0.29. CONCLUSION: e-TropICS has utility in the care of critically unwell patients in the South Asia region with good discriminative capacity. Further refinement of calibration in larger datasets from India and across the South-East Asia region will help in improving model performance.

Improving ICU services in resource-limited settings: Perceptions of ICU workers from low-middle-, and high-income countries.

PURPOSE: To evaluate perceptions of intensive care unit (ICU) workers from low-and-middle income countries (LMICs) and high income countries (HICs). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cross sectional design. Data collected from doctors using an anonymous online, questionnaire. RESULTS: Hundred seventy-five from LMICs and 43 from HICs participated. Barriers in LMICs were lack of formal training (Likert score median 3 [inter quartile range 3]), lack of nurses (3[3]) and low wages (3[4]). Strategies for LMICs improvement were formal training of ICU staff (4[3]), an increase in number of ICU nurses (4[2]), collection of outcome data (3[4]), as well as maintenance of available equipment [3(3)]. The most useful role of HIC ICU staff was training of LMIC staff (4[2]). Donation of equipment [2(4)], drugs [2(4)], and supplies (2[4]) perceived to be of limited usefulness. The most striking difference between HIC and LMIC staff was the perception on the lack of physician leadership as an obstacle to ICU functioning (4[3] vs. 0[2], p<0.005). CONCLUSION: LMICs ICU workers perceived lack of training, lack of nurses, and low wages as major barriers to functioning. Training, increase of nurse workforce, and collection of outcome data were proposed as useful strategies to improve LMIC ICU services.

Evaluation of the feasibility and performance of early warning scores to identify patients at risk of adverse outcomes in a low-middle income country setting.

OBJECTIVE: This study describes the availability of core parameters for Early Warning Scores (EWS), evaluates the ability of selected EWS to identify patients at risk of death or other adverse outcome and describes the burden of triggering that front-line staff would experience if implemented. DESIGN: Longitudinal observational cohort study. SETTING: District General Hospital Monaragala. PARTICIPANTS: All adult (age >17 years) admitted patients. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Existing physiological parameters, adverse outcomes and survival status at hospital discharge were extracted daily from existing paper records for all patients over an 8-month period. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Discrimination for selected aggregate weighted track and trigger systems (AWTTS) was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve.Performance of EWS are further evaluated at time points during admission and across diagnostic groups. The burden of trigger to correctly identify patients who died was evaluated using positive predictive value (PPV). RESULTS: Of the 16 386 patients included, 502 (3.06%) had one or more adverse outcomes (cardiac arrests, unplanned intensive care unit admissions and transfers). Availability of physiological parameters on admission ranged from 90.97% (95% CI 90.52% to 91.40%) for heart rate to 23.94% (95% CI 23.29% to 24.60%) for oxygen saturation. Ability to discriminate death on admission was less than 0.81 (AUROC) for all selected EWS. Performance of the best performing of the EWS varied depending on admission diagnosis, and was diminished at 24 hours prior to event. PPV was low (10.44%). CONCLUSION: There is limited observation reporting in this setting. Indiscriminate application of EWS to all patients admitted to wards in this setting may result in an unnecessary burden of monitoring and may detract from clinician care of sicker patients. Physiological parameters in combination with diagnosis may have a place when applied on admission to help identify patients for whom increased vital sign monitoring may not be beneficial. Further research is required to understand the priorities and cues that influence monitoring of ward patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02523456.