Arrhythmogenic Manifestations of Chagas Disease: Perspectives From the Bench to Bedside.

Chagas cardiomyopathy caused by infection with the intracellular parasite Trypanosoma cruzi is the most common and severe expression of human Chagas disease. Heart failure, systemic and pulmonary thromboembolism, arrhythmia, and sudden cardiac death are the principal clinical manifestations of Chagas cardiomyopathy. Ventricular arrhythmias contribute significantly to morbidity and mortality and are the major cause of sudden cardiac death. Significant gaps still exist in the understanding of the pathogenesis mechanisms underlying the arrhythmogenic manifestations of Chagas cardiomyopathy. This article will review the data from experimental studies and translate those findings to draw hypotheses about clinical observations. Human- and animal-based studies at molecular, cellular, tissue, and organ levels suggest 5 main pillars of remodeling caused by the interaction of host and parasite: immunologic, electrical, autonomic, microvascular, and contractile. Integrating these 5 remodeling processes will bring insights into the current knowledge in the field, highlighting some key features for future management of this arrhythmogenic disease.

Heart rate variability as a biomarker in patients with Chronic Chagas Cardiomyopathy with or without concomitant digestive involvement and its relationship with the Rassi score.

BACKGROUND: Dysautonomia plays an ancillary role in the pathogenesis of Chronic Chagas Cardiomyopathy (CCC), but is the key factor causing digestive organic involvement. We investigated the ability of heart rate variability (HRV) for death risk stratification in CCC and compared alterations of HRV in patients with isolated CCC and in those with the mixed form (CCC + digestive involvement). Thirty-one patients with CCC were classified into three risk groups (low, intermediate and high) according to their Rassi score. A single-lead ECG was recorded for a period of 10-20 min, RR series were generated and 31 HRV indices were calculated. The HRV was compared among the three risk groups and regarding the associated digestive involvement. Four machine learning models were created to predict the risk class of patients. RESULTS: Phase entropy is decreased and the percentage of inflection points is increased in patients from the high-, compared to the low-risk group. Fourteen patients had the mixed form, showing decreased triangular interpolation of the RR histogram and absolute power at the low-frequency band. The best predictive risk model was obtained by the support vector machine algorithm (overall F1-score of 0.61). CONCLUSIONS: The mixed form of Chagas' disease showed a decrease in the slow HRV components. The worst prognosis in CCC is associated with increased heart rate fragmentation. The combination of HRV indices enhanced the accuracy of risk stratification. In patients with the mixed form of Chagas disease, a higher degree of sympathetic autonomic denervation may be associated with parasympathetic impairment.

Randomized Trial of Benznidazole for Chronic Chagas' Cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: The role of trypanocidal therapy in patients with established Chagas' cardiomyopathy is unproven. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, multicenter, randomized study involving 2854 patients with Chagas' cardiomyopathy who received benznidazole or placebo for up to 80 days and were followed for a mean of 5.4 years. The primary outcome in the time-to-event analysis was the first event of any of the components of the composite outcome of death, resuscitated cardiac arrest, sustained ventricular tachycardia, insertion of a pacemaker or implantable cardioverter-defibrillator, cardiac transplantation, new heart failure, stroke, or other thromboembolic event. RESULTS: The primary outcome occurred in 394 patients (27.5%) in the benznidazole group and in 414 (29.1%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.81 to 1.07; P=0.31). At baseline, a polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR) assay was performed on blood samples obtained from 1896 patients; 60.5% had positive results for Trypanosoma cruzi on PCR. The rates of conversion to negative PCR results (PCR conversion) were 66.2% in the benznidazole group and 33.5% in the placebo group at the end of treatment, 55.4% and 35.3%, respectively, at 2 years, and 46.7% and 33.1%, respectively, at 5 years or more (P<0.001 for all comparisons). The effect of treatment on PCR conversion varied according to geographic region: in Brazil, the odds ratio for PCR conversion was 3.03 (95% CI, 2.12 to 4.34) at 2 years and 1.87 (95% CI, 1.33 to 2.63) at 5 or more years; in Colombia and El Salvador, the odds ratio was 1.33 (95% CI, 0.90 to 1.98) at 2 years and 0.96 (95% CI, 0.63 to 1.45) at 5 or more years; and in Argentina and Bolivia, the odds ratio was 2.63 (95% CI, 1.89 to 3.66) at 2 years and 2.79 (95% CI, 1.99 to 3.92) at 5 or more years (P<0.001 for interaction). However, the rates of PCR conversion did not correspond to effects on clinical outcome (P=0.16 for interaction). CONCLUSIONS: Trypanocidal therapy with benznidazole in patients with established Chagas' cardiomyopathy significantly reduced serum parasite detection but did not significantly reduce cardiac clinical deterioration through 5 years of follow-up. (Funded by the Population Health Research Institute and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00123916; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN13967269.).

Long-term follow-up of Chagas heart disease patients receiving an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator for secondary prevention.

BACKGROUND: Chagas heart disease (CHD) is a dilated cardiomyopathy characterized by malignant ventricular arrhythmias and increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Much controversy exists concerning the efficacy of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICDs) in CHD because of mixed results observed. We report our long-term experience with ICDs for secondary prevention in CHD, with the specific aim of assessing the results in groups with preserved or depressed global left ventricular function. METHODS: 111 patients (75 males; 60 ± 12 years) were followed for 1,948 ± 1,275 days after ICD. Time to death was the primary outcome; LVEF ≤ 45% the exposure; and age, gender, and ICD therapy delivery the potential confounders. We used time-to-event methods and Cox proportional models for analysis, censoring observations at time of death or at 5-year follow-up in survivors. RESULTS: Seventy-two percent of the patients presented at least one sustained ventricular arrhythmia requiring appropriate therapy, and only three patients received inappropriate therapy. Death occurred in 50 (45%) patients, with an annual mortality rate of 8.4%, mostly due to refractory heart failure or noncardiac causes. Unadjusted survival rates were significantly distinct between patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤ 45% (26 deaths), 50.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 36.2%-63.2%) when compared to patients with LVEF > 45% (10 deaths), 77.6% (95% CI: 62.3%-87.3%, P < 0.01). After adjusting for confounders, low LVEF (hazard ratio [HR]: 5.2, 95% CI: 2.3-11.6), age (HR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01-1.07), and female gender (HR: 3.97, 95% CI: 1.85-8.54) were independently associated with the outcome. CONCLUSIONS: ICDs successfully aborted life-threatening arrhythmias in CHD patients. Impaired left ventricular function predicted higher mortality in CHD patients with an ICD for secondary prevention of SCD.

'Choosing Wisely' culture among Brazilian cardiologists.

OBJECTIVE: (i) To describe how aligned the 'Choosing Wisely' concept is with the medical culture among Brazilian cardiologists and (ii) to identify predictors for physicians' preference for avoiding wasteful care. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Brazilian Society of Cardiology. PARTICIPANTS: Cardiologists who agree to fill a web questionary. INTERVENTION: A task force of 12 Brazilian cardiologists prepared a list of 13 'do not do' recommendations, which were made available on the Brazilian Society of Cardiology website for affiliates to assign a supported score of 1 to 10 to each recommendation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENT: Score average for supporting recommendations. RESULTS: Of 14 579 Brazilian cardiologists, 621 (4.3%) answered the questionnaire. The top recommendation was 'do not perform routine percutaneous coronary intervention in asymptomatic individuals' (mean score = 8.0 ± 2.9) while the one with the lowest support was 'do not use an intra-aortic balloon pump in infarction with cardiogenic shock' (5.8 ± 3.2). None of the 13 recommendations presented a mean grade >9 (strong support); 7 recommendations averaged 7-8 (moderate support) followed by 6 recommendations with an average of 5-7 (modest support). Multivariate analysis independently identified predictors of the score attributed to the top recommendation; being an interventionist and time since graduation were both negatively associated with support. CONCLUSIONS: (i) The support of Brazilian cardiologists for the 'Choosing Wisely' concept is modest to moderate, and (ii) older generations and enthusiasm towards the procedure one performs may be factors against the 'Choosing Wisely' philosophy.

Chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy: a review of the main pathogenic mechanisms and the efficacy of aetiological treatment following the BENznidazole Evaluation for Interrupting Trypanosomiasis (BENEFIT) trial.

Chagas cardiomyopathy is the most frequent and most severe manifestation of chronic Chagas disease, and is one of the leading causes of morbidity and death in Latin America. Although the pathogenesis of Chagas cardiomyopathy is incompletely understood, it may involve several mechanisms, including parasite-dependent myocardial damage, immune-mediated myocardial injury (induced by the parasite itself and by self-antigens), and microvascular and neurogenic disturbances. In the past three decades, a consensus has emerged that parasite persistence is crucial to the development and progression of Chagas cardiomyopathy. In this context, antiparasitic treatment in the chronic phase of Chagas disease could prevent complications related to the disease. However, according to the results of the BENEFIT trial, benznidazole seems to have no benefit for arresting disease progression in patients with chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy. In this review, we give an update on the main pathogenic mechanisms of Chagas disease, and re-examine and discuss the results of the BENEFIT trial, together with its limitations and implications.

Cell therapy in Chagas cardiomyopathy (Chagas arm of the multicenter randomized trial of cell therapy in cardiopathies study): a multicenter randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggested that transplantation of autologous bone marrow-derived mononuclear cells (BMNCs) improves heart function in chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy. We report the results of the first randomized trial of BMNC therapy in chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients 18 to 75 years of age with chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy, New York Heart Association class II to IV heart failure, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <35, and optimized therapy were randomized to intracoronary injection of autologous BMNCs or placebo. The primary end point was the difference in LVEF from baseline to 6 and 12 months after treatment between groups. Analysis was by intention to treat and powered to detect an absolute between-group difference of 5. Between July 2005 and October 2009, 234 patients were enrolled. Two patients abandoned the study and 49 were excluded because of protocol violation. The remaining 183 patients, 93 in the placebo group and 90 in the BMNC group, had a trimmed mean age of 52.4 years (range, 50.8-54.0 years) and LVEF of 26.1 (range, 25.1-27.1) at baseline. Median number of injected BMNCs was 2.20×10(8) (range, 1.40-3.50×10(8)). Change in LVEF did not differ significantly between treatment groups: trimmed mean change in LVEF at 6 months, 3.0 (1.3-4.8) for BMNCs and 2.5 (0.6-4.5) for placebo (P=0.519); change in LVEF at 12 months, 3.5 (1.5-5.5) for BMNCs and 3.7 (1.5-6.0) for placebo (P=0.850). Left ventricular systolic and diastolic volumes, New York Heart Association functional class, Minnesota quality-of-life questionnaire, brain natriuretic peptide concentrations, and 6-minute walking test did also not differ between groups. CONCLUSION: Intracoronary injection of autologous BMNCs does not improve left ventricular function or quality of life in patients with chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy.

CHronic use of Amiodarone aGAinSt Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy for primary prevention of death in patients with Chagas cardiomyopathy Study: rationale and design of a randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) is better than antiarrhythmic drug therapy for the primary and secondary prevention of all-cause mortality and sudden cardiac death in patients with either coronary artery disease or idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. This study aims to assess whether the ICD also has this effect for primary prevention in chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC). METHODS: In this randomized (concealed allocation) open-label trial, we aim to enroll up to 1,100 patients with CCC, a Rassi risk score for death prediction of ≥10 points, and at least 1 episode of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia on a 24-hour Holter monitoring. Patients from 28 centers in Brazil will be randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive an ICD or amiodarone (600 mg/d for 10 days, then 200-400 mg/d until the end of the study). The randomization sequence will be generated by computer, and the members of the committees responsible for end point validation and data analysis will be blinded to study assignment. The primary end point is all-cause death, and enrolment will continue until 256 patients have reached this end point. Key secondary end points include cardiovascular death, sudden cardiac death, hospitalization for heart failure, and quality of life. We expect follow-up to last 3 to 6 years, and data analysis will be done on an intention-to-treat basis. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT01722942. CONCLUSION: CHAGASICS is the first large-scale trial to assess the benefit of ICD therapy for the primary prevention of death in patients with CCC and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, who have a moderate to high risk of death.

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of Chagas Disease in the United States: A Multicenter Retrospective Analysis.

Chagas disease affects approximately 300,000 patients in the United States. We evaluated a multicenter U.S.-based network to obtain clinical characteristics and outcomes of chronic Chagas disease by disease forms. This was a U.S.-based, multicenter, population-based, retrospective cohort study. We queried TriNetX, a global research network, to identify patients with dual-positive IgG serology for Trypanosoma cruzi. We captured outcomes of interest for up to 5 years. We found 429 patients with evidence of dual-positive T. cruzi IgG out of 19,831 patients with an available test result from 31 U.S. medical centers. The positive proportion for those tested was 2.2%, up to 4.6% among Hispanics. We found a prevalence of a positive Chagas serology of 0.02% among Hispanics. Cardiomyopathy risk reached an annual rate of 1.3% during the initial 5 years of follow-up among patients with the indeterminate form. We found no new events for pulmonary embolism, sudden death, or left ventricular aneurysms at 5 years. Annual risks for arrhythmias and stroke for chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC) were 1.6% and 0.8%, respectively. The yearly mortality and hospitalization rates for CCC were 2.7% and 17.1%, respectively. Only 13 patients had a documented antitrypanosomal therapy course within 6 months after diagnosis. Of those receiving treatment, 10 patients received benznidazole and three nifurtimox. Chagas disease screening in patients from endemic areas living in the United States remains crucial. Chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy carries a considerable disease burden, translating into increased morbidity and mortality and an enlarging medical health service utilization.

Cardiac involvement with parasitic infections.

Parasitic infections previously seen only in developing tropical settings can be currently diagnosed worldwide due to travel and population migration. Some parasites may directly or indirectly affect various anatomical structures of the heart, with infections manifested as myocarditis, pericarditis, pancarditis, or pulmonary hypertension. Thus, it has become quite relevant for clinicians in developed settings to consider parasitic infections in the differential diagnosis of myocardial and pericardial disease anywhere around the globe. Chagas' disease is by far the most important parasitic infection of the heart and one that it is currently considered a global parasitic infection due to the growing migration of populations from areas where these infections are highly endemic to settings where they are not endemic. Current advances in the treatment of African trypanosomiasis offer hope to prevent not only the neurological complications but also the frequently identified cardiac manifestations of this life-threatening parasitic infection. The lack of effective vaccines, optimal chemoprophylaxis, or evidence-based pharmacological therapies to control many of the parasitic diseases of the heart, in particular Chagas' disease, makes this disease one of the most important public health challenges of our time.

Defibrillation Threshold Testing and Long-term Follow-up in Chagas Disease. / Teste de Limiar de Desfibrilação e Seguimento a Longo Prazo de Pacientes com Cardiopatia Crônica da Doença de Chagas.

BACKGROUND: Sudden cardiac death is the most common cause of death in chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC). Because most CCC patients who are candidates for implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICD) meet criteria for high defibrillation threshold values, a defibrillator threshold test (DTT) is suggested. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the use of DTT in CCC patients, focusing on deaths related to ICD and arrhythmic events, as well as treatment during long-term follow-up. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated 133 CCC patients who received an ICD mainly for secondary prevention. Demographic, clinical, laboratory data, Rassi score, and DTT data were collected, with p < 0.05 considered significant. RESULTS: The mean patient age was 61 (SD, 13) years and 72% were men. The baseline left ventricular ejection fraction was 40 (SD, 15%) and the mean Rassi score was 10 (SD, 4). No deaths occurred during DTT and no ICD failures were documented. There was a relationship between higher baseline Rassi scores and higher DTT scores (ANOVA = 0.007). The mean time to first shock was 474 (SD, 628) days, although shock was only necessary for 28 (35%) patients with ventricular tachycardia, since most cases resolved spontaneously or through antitachycardia pacing. After a mean clinical follow-up of 1728 (SD, 1189) days, 43 deaths occurred, mainly related to progressive heart failure and sepsis. CONCLUSIONS: A routine DTT may not be necessary for CCC patients who receive an ICD for secondary prevention. High DTT values seem to be unusual and may be related to high Rassi scores.

FUNDAMENTO: A morte súbita cardíaca (MSC) é a causa mais comum de óbito na cardiomiopatia crônica da doença de Chagas (CCDC). Visto que muitos pacientes com CCDC que são candidatos a receber um cardioversor desfibrilador implantável (CDI) atendem a critérios que sugerem alto risco de apresentarem limiares de desfibrilação elevados, sugere-se realizar um teste de limite de desfibrilação (LDF). OBJETIVOS: Investigamos o uso do teste de LDF em pacientes com CCDC, com enfoque nos óbitos relacionados ao implante do CDI e na ocorrência de eventos arrítmicos e o tratamento oferecido durante o seguimento de longo prazo. MÉTODOS: Avaliações retrospectivas de 133 pacientes com CCDC que receberam CDI, principalmente para prevenção secundária. Foram coletados dados demográficos, clínicos e laboratoriais, escore de Rassi e dados do teste de LDF. Adotou-se p<0,05 como estatisticamente significativo. RESULTADOS: A média de idade foi 61±13 anos, e 72% da amostra era do sexo masculino. A fração de ejeção basal do ventrículo esquerdo foi 40±15%, e o escore de Rassi médio foi 10±4 pontos. Não ocorreram óbitos durante o teste de LDF, e não foram documentadas falhas do CDI. Foi identificada relação entre escore de Rassi basal mais elevado e LDFs mais elevados (ANOVA =0,007). O tempo médio até o primeiro choque foi de 474±628 dias, mas a aplicação de choque foi necessária em apenas 28 (35%) pacientes com TV, visto que a maioria dos casos se resolveu espontaneamente ou através da programação de ATP. Após seguimento clínico de 1728±1189 dias, em média, ocorreram 43 óbitos, relacionados principalmente a insuficiência cardíaca progressiva e sepse. CONCLUSÕES: Um teste de LDF de rotina pode não ser necessário para pacientes com CCDCs que receberam CDI para prevenção secundária. LDFs elevados parecem ser incomuns e podem estar relacionados a escore de Rassi elevado.

Chagas disease.

Chagas disease is a chronic, systemic, parasitic infection caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, and was discovered in 1909. The disease affects about 8 million people in Latin America, of whom 30-40% either have or will develop cardiomyopathy, digestive megasyndromes, or both. In the past three decades, the control and management of Chagas disease has undergone several improvements. Large-scale vector control programmes and screening of blood donors have reduced disease incidence and prevalence. Although more effective trypanocidal drugs are needed, treatment with benznidazole (or nifurtimox) is reasonably safe and effective, and is now recommended for a widened range of patients. Improved models for risk stratification are available, and certain guided treatments could halt or reverse disease progression. By contrast, some challenges remain: Chagas disease is becoming an emerging health problem in non-endemic areas because of growing population movements; early detection and treatment of asymptomatic individuals are underused; and the potential benefits of novel therapies (eg, implantable cardioverter defibrillators) need assessment in prospective randomised trials.

Experiences with Diagnosis and Treatment of Chagas Disease at a United States Teaching Hospital-Clinical Features of Patients with Positive Screening Serologic Testing.

Chagas disease (CD) is the third most common parasitic infection globally and can cause cardiac and gastrointestinal complications. Around 300,000 carriers of CD live in the U.S., with about 3000 of those in Colorado. We described our experience in diagnosing CD at a Colorado teaching hospital to revise screening eligibility criteria. From 2006 to 2020, we reviewed Trypanosoma cruzi (TC) IgG serology results for 1156 patients in our institution. We identified 23 patients (1.99%) who had a positive test. A total of 14/23 (60%) of positive serologies never had confirmatory testing, and 7 of them were lost to follow up. Confirmatory testing, performed in 9 patients, resulted in being positive in 3. One additional case of CD was identified by positive tissue pathology. All four confirmed cases were among patients born in Latin America. While most of the testing for CD at our institution is part of the pretransplant screening, no confirmed cases of CD derived from this strategy. Exposure risk in this population is not always documented, and initial positive results from screening are not always confirmed. The lack of standardized screening protocols for CD in our institution contributes to underdiagnosis locally and in health systems nationwide. Given a large number of individuals in the U.S. with chronic CD, improved screening is warranted.

Mortality risk in chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIMS: This study aimed to estimate the annual mortality risk and its determinants in chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a systematic search in MEDLINE, Web of Science Core Collection, Embase, Cochrane Library, and LILACS. Longitudinal studies published between 1 January 1946 and 24 October 2018 were included. A random-effects meta-analysis using the death rate over the mean follow-up period in years was used to obtain pooled estimated annual mortality rates. Main outcomes were defined as all-cause mortality, including cardiovascular, non-cardiovascular, heart failure, stroke, and sudden cardiac deaths. A total of 5005 studies were screened for eligibility. A total of 52 longitudinal studies for chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy including 9569 patients and 2250 deaths were selected. The meta-analysis revealed an annual all-cause mortality rate of 7.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 6.3-10.1; I2  = 97.74%; T2  = 0.70] among patients with chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy. The pooled estimated annual cardiovascular death rate was 6.3% (95% CI: 4.9-8.0; I2  = 96.32%; T2  = 0.52). The annual mortality rates for heart failure, sudden death, and stroke were 3.5%, 2.6%, and 0.4%, respectively. Meta-regression showed that low left ventricular ejection fraction (coefficient = -0.04; 95% CI: -0.07, -0.02; P = 0.001) was associated with an increased mortality risk. Subgroup analysis based on American Heart Association (AHA) classification revealed pooled estimate rates of 4.8%, 8.7%, 13.9%, and 22.4% (P < 0.001) for B1/B2, B2/C, C, and C/D stages of cardiomyopathy, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The annual mortality risk in chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy is substantial and primarily attributable to cardiovascular causes. This risk significantly increases in patients with low left ventricular ejection fraction and those classified as AHA stages C and C/D.

A deadly feast: Elucidating the burden of orally acquired acute Chagas disease in Latin America - Public health and travel medicine importance.

Over the past two decades, several countries in Latin American, particularly Brazil, Venezuela, and Colombia, have experienced multiple outbreaks of oral Chagas disease. Transmission occurs secondary to contamination of food or beverages by triatomine (kissing bug) feces containing infective Trypanosoma cruzi metacyclic trypomastigotes. Orally transmitted infections are acute and potentially fatal. Oral Chagas transmission carries important clinical implications from management to public health policies compared to vector-borne transmission. This review aims to discuss the contemporary situation of orally acquired Chagas disease, and its eco-epidemiology, pathogenesis, and clinical management. We also propose preventive public health interventions to reduce the burden of disease and provide important perspectives for travel medicine. Travel health advisors need to counsel intending travellers to South America on avoidance of "deadly feasts" - risky beverages such as fruit juices including guava juice, bacaba, babaçu and palm wine (vino de palma), açai pulp, sugar cane juice and foodstuffs such as wild animal meats that may be contaminated with T. cruzi.

Risk of Chronic Cardiomyopathy Among Patients With the Acute Phase or Indeterminate Form of Chagas Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Importance: Chagas cardiomyopathy is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. Precise estimates of the risk of developing cardiomyopathy among patients with the acute or indeterminate chronic forms of Chagas disease are lacking. Objective: To estimate the risk of developing chronic cardiomyopathy in patients with acute and indeterminate chronic forms of Chagas disease. Data Sources: A systematic search in the Cochrane Library, Embase, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), Medline, and Web of Science Core Collection databases was conducted from October 8 to October 24, 2018. Studies published between January 1, 1946, and October 24, 2018, that were written in the English, Spanish, and Portuguese languages were included. Search terms included Chagas disease; development of cardiomyopathy; latency duration; and determinants of the Chagas latency period. Study Selection: Longitudinal observational studies of participants diagnosed with the acute phase of Chagas infection or the indeterminate chronic form of Chagas disease who were followed up until the development of cardiomyopathy were included. Studies were excluded if they did not provide sufficient outcome data. Of 10 761 records initially screened, 32 studies met the criteria for analysis. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Critical appraisals of studies were performed using checklists from the Joanna Briggs Institute Reviewer's Manual, and data were collected from published studies. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to obtain pooled estimated annual rates. Data were analyzed from September 11 to December 4, 2019. This study followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline for the registration of the protocol, data collection and integrity, assessment of bias, and sensitivity analyses. Main Outcomes and Measures: Main outcomes were defined as the composite of the development of any new arrhythmias or changes in electrocardiogram results, dilated cardiomyopathy and segmental wall motion abnormalities in echocardiogram results, and mortality associated with Chagas disease. Results: A total of 5005 records were screened for eligibility. Of those, 298 full-text articles were reviewed, and 178 of those articles were considered for inclusion in the quantitative synthesis. After exclusions, 32 studies that included longitudinal observational outcomes were selected for the analysis; 23 of those studies comprised patients with the indeterminate chronic form of Chagas disease, and 9 of those studies comprised patients in the acute phase of Chagas infection. The analysis indicated that the pooled estimated annual rate of cardiomyopathy development was 1.9% (95% CI, 1.3%-3.0%; I2 = 98.0%; τ2 [ln scale] = 0.9992) in patients with indeterminate chronic Chagas disease and 4.6% (95% CI, 2.7%-7.9%; I2 = 86.6%; τ2 [ln scale] = 0.4946) in patients with acute Chagas infection. Conclusions and Relevance: Patients with the indeterminate chronic form of Chagas disease had a significant annual risk of developing cardiomyopathy. The annual risk was more than double among patients in the acute phase of Chagas infection.

Development and validation of a risk score for predicting death in Chagas' heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Chagas' disease is an important health problem in Latin America, and cardiac involvement is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. We developed a model to predict the risk of death in patients with Chagas' heart disease. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated 424 outpatients from a regional Brazilian cohort. The association of potential risk factors with death was tested by Cox proportional-hazards analysis, and a risk score was created. The model was validated in 153 patients from a separate community hospital. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 7.9 years, 130 patients in the development cohort died. Six independent prognostic factors were identified, and each was assigned a number of points proportional to its regression coefficient: New York Heart Association class III or IV (5 points), evidence of cardiomegaly on radiography (5 points), left ventricular systolic dysfunction on echocardiography (3 points), nonsustained ventricular tachycardia on 24-hour Holter monitoring (3 points), low QRS voltage on electrocardiography (2 points), and male sex (2 points). We calculated risk scores for each patient and defined three risk groups: low risk (0 to 6 points), intermediate risk (7 to 11 points), and high risk (12 to 20 points). In the development cohort, the 10-year mortality rates for these three groups were 10 percent, 44 percent, and 84 percent, respectively. In the validation cohort, the corresponding mortality rates were 9 percent, 37 percent, and 85 percent. The C statistic for the point system was 0.84 in the development cohort and 0.81 in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: A simple risk score was developed to predict death in Chagas' heart disease and was validated in an independent cohort.