Trends and Patterns of Chickpea Consumption among United States Adults: Analyses of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Data.

BACKGROUND: Chickpeas are an affordable and nutrient-dense legume, but there is limited United States data on consumption patterns and the relationship between chickpea consumption and dietary intakes. OBJECTIVES: This study examined trends and sociodemographic patterns among chickpea consumers and the relationship between chickpea consumption and dietary intake. METHODS: Adults consuming chickpeas or chickpea-containing foods on 1 or both of the 24-h dietary recalls were categorized as chickpea consumers. Data from NHANES 2003-2018 were used to evaluate trends and sociodemographic patterns in chickpea consumption (n = 35,029). The association between chickpea consumption and dietary intakes was compared to other legume consumers and nonlegume consumers from 2015-2018 (n = 8,342). RESULTS: The proportion of chickpea consumers increased from 1.9% in 2003-2006 to 4.5% in 2015-2018 (P value for trend < 0.001). This trend was consistent across age group, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and income. In 2015-2018, chickpea consumption was highest among individuals with higher incomes (2.4% among those with incomes <185% of the federal poverty guideline compared with 6.4% with incomes ≥300%), education levels (1.0% for less than high school compared with 10.2% for college graduates), physical activity levels (1.9% for no physical activity compared with 7.7% for ≥430 min of moderate-equivalent physical activity per week), and those with better self-reported health (1.7% fair/poor compared with 6.5% for excellent/very good, P-trend < 0.001 for each). Chickpea consumers had greater intakes of whole grains (1.48 oz/d for chickpea consumers compared with 0.91 for nonlegume consumers) and nuts/seeds (1.47 compared with 0.72 oz/d), less intake of red meat (0.96 compared with 1.55 oz/d), and higher Healthy Eating Index scores (62.1 compared with 51.2) compared with both nonlegume and other legume consumers (P value < 0.05 for each). CONCLUSIONS: Chickpea consumption among United States adults has doubled between 2003 and 2018, yet intake remains low. Chickpea consumers have higher socioeconomic status and better health status, and their overall diets are more consistent with a healthy dietary pattern.

The association between social needs and chronic conditions in a large, urban primary care population.

There is consensus that social needs influence health outcomes, but less is known about the relationships between certain needs and chronic health conditions in large, diverse populations. This study sought to understand the association between social needs and specific chronic conditions using social needs screening and clinical data from Electronic Health Records. Between April 2018-December 2019, 33,550 adult (≥18y) patients completed a 10-item social needs screener during primary care visits in Bronx and Westchester counties, NY. Generalized linear models were used to estimate prevalence ratios for eight outcomes by number and type of needs with analyses completed in Summer 2020. There was a positive, cumulative association between social needs and each of the outcomes. The relationship was strongest for elevated PHQ-2, depression, alcohol/drug use disorder, and smoking. Those with ≥3 social needs were 3.90 times more likely to have an elevated PHQ-2 than those without needs (95% CI: 3.66, 4.16). Challenges with healthcare transportation was associated with each condition and was the most strongly associated need with half of conditions in the fully-adjusted models. For example, those with transportation needs were 84% more likely to have an alcohol/drug use disorder diagnosis (95% CI: 1.59, 2.13) and 41% more likely to smoke (95% CI: 1.25, 1.58). Specific social needs may influence clinical issues in distinct ways. These findings suggest that health systems need to develop strategies that address unmet social need in order to optimize health outcomes, particularly in communities with a dual burden of poverty and chronic disease.

Impact of sociodemographic factors on the consumption of tubers in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Although tubers play a significant role in Brazilian agriculture, very little is known about the intake of tubers among the Brazilian population. The objective of this study was to characterize the intake of tubers across Brazil. The types of tubers consumed were quantified, and the impact of geographic and sociodemographic factors was assessed. METHODS: This cross-sectional study is based on dietary intake data of 33,504 subjects obtained from the Brazilian National Dietary Survey. All tuber containing foods were identified, and the contribution of different tubers to overall tuber consumption in Brazil was quantified. Descriptive analyses assessed the impact of macroregion and sociodemographic characteristics on tuber consumption, and differences in intake were assessed using statistical tests. Lastly, the dietary intakes of tuber consumers and non-consumers were compared after adjusting for energy and covariates to determine if there were any major differences in dietary intakes between the two groups. RESULTS: Fifty-five percent of the Brazilian population consumed tubers, which differed by macroregion. The intake of tubers among consumers also differed between macroregions. Overall, rural areas reported significantly higher mean daily intakes of tubers (122 g/day) among tuber consumers than urban areas (95 g/day). Mandioca and potato were the most commonly consumed tubers (59 and 43% prevalence, respectively, on any of the 2 days), while the highest daily intakes amongst tuber consumers across Brazil were noted for sweet potato (156 g/day) and potato (95 g/day). On a macroregion level, among tuber consumers, mandioca had the highest prevalence of consumption in the North (94%), Northeast (83%), and Central-West (68%), while consumption of potatoes was most prevalent in the Southeast (63%) and South (62%). Compared to women, small but significantly higher tuber intakes were noted for males (108 vs. 85 g/day). There were no significant differences in intakes among income quintiles. After adjusting for energy and other covariates, nutrient intakes between tuber and non-tuber consumers were not meaningfully different, with the exception of sodium (+ 6.0% comparing non-tuber to tuber consumers), iron (+ 6.1%), zinc (+ 5.7%), vitamin C (+ 8.3%), riboflavin (+ 9.0%), and folate (+ 7.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Tuber consumption is influenced by regional and sociodemographic characteristics of the Brazilian population. When looking at energy-adjusted nutrient intakes, diets of tuber consumers have resulted in somewhat lower intakes of some micronutrients, namely riboflavin, folate, vitamin C, iron, sodium, and zinc.

Flavonoid Intakes in the US Diet Are Linked to Higher Socioeconomic Status and to Tea Consumption: Analyses of NHANES 2011-16 Data.

BACKGROUND: Many of the health benefits of tea have been attributed to its flavonoid content. Tea consumption in US adults varies by socioeconomic status (SES). OBJECTIVES: The present objective was to explore intakes of total flavonoids and flavonoid subclasses by participant sociodemographics and by patterns of tea consumption. METHODS: The present analyses were based on 2 d of dietary recalls for 17,506 persons aged >9 y in the 2011-2016 NHANES. The What We Eat in America nutrient composition database was merged with the USDA Expanded Flavonoid database, which included total flavonoids and flavan-3-ols (including catechins), flavanones, flavonols, anthocyanidins, flavones, and isoflavones. Flavonoid intakes were compared by sex, age, race/ethnicity, education, and income-to-poverty ratio (IPR) in univariate analyses. Flavonoid intakes of children and adults were also compared by tea consumption status. Time trends in flavonoid intakes were also examined. RESULTS: Mean total flavonoid intake was 219 mg/d, of which flavan-3-ols provided 174 mg/d, or 79%. The highest total flavonoid intakes were found in adults aged 51-70 y (293 mg/d), non-Hispanic whites (251 mg/d) and in groups with college education (251 mg/d) and higher income (IPR >3.5: 249 mg/d) (P < 0.001 for all). The socioeconomic gradient was significant for anthocyanidins, flavonols, and flavones (P < 0.001 for all) but not for flavan-3-ols, and persisted across 3 cycles of NHANES. Adult tea consumers had higher intakes of total flavonoids (610 mg/d compared with 141 mg/d) and flavan-3-ols (542 mg/d compared with 97.8 mg/d) than did nonconsumers (P < 0.001). Time trend analyses showed that both tea consumption and flavonoid intakes were unchanged from 2011 to 2016. CONCLUSIONS: Flavonoid intakes in children and adults in the NHANES 2011-16 sample were associated with higher SES and were largely determined by tea consumption. Studies of diet and disease risk need to take sociodemographic gradients and eating and drinking habits into account.

Quality of Meals Consumed by US Adults at Full-Service and Fast-Food Restaurants, 2003-2016: Persistent Low Quality and Widening Disparities.

BACKGROUND: Meals from full-service restaurants (FS) and fast-food restaurants (FF) are an integral part of US diets, but current levels and trends in consumption, healthfulness, and related sociodemographic disparities are not well characterized. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess patterns and nutritional quality (using validated American Heart Association [AHA] diet scores) of FS and FF meals consumed by US adults. METHODS: Serial cross-sectional investigation utilizing 24-h dietary recalls in survey-weighted, nationally representative samples of 35,015 adults aged ≥20 y from 7 NHANES cycles, 2003-2016. RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2016, American adults consumed ∼21 percent of energyfrom restaurants (FS: 8.5% in 2003-2004, 9.5% in 2015-2016, P-trend = 0.38; FF: 10.5%; 13.4%, P-trend = 0.31). Over this period, more FF meals were eaten for breakfast (from 4.4% to 7.6% of all breakfasts, P-trend <0.001), with no changes for lunch (15.2% to 15.3%) or dinner (14.6% to 14.4%). In 2015-2016, diet quality of both FS and FF were low, with mean AHA diet scores of 31.6 and 27.6 (out of 80). Between 2003 and 2016, diet quality of FF meals improved slightly, (the percentage with poor quality went from 74.6% to 69.8%; and with intermediate quality, from 25.4% to 30.2%; P-trend <0.001 each). Proportions of FS meals of poor (∼50%) and intermediate (∼50%) quality were stable over time, with <0.1% of consumed FS or FF meals meeting ideal quality. Disparities in FS meal quality persisted by race/ethnicity, obesity status, and education and worsened by income; whereas disparities in FF meal quality persisted by age, sex, and obesity status and worsened by race/ethnicity, education, and income. CONCLUSIONS: Between 2003 and 2016, FF and FS meals provided 1 in 5 calories for US adults. Modest improvements occurred in nutritional quality of FF, but not FS, meals consumed, and the average quality for both remained low with persistent or widening disparities. These findings highlight the need for strategies to improve the nutritional quality of US restaurant meals.

Unmet Social Needs and No-Show Visits in Primary Care in a US Northeastern Urban Health System, 2018-2019.

Objectives. To characterize the association between social needs prevalence and no-show proportion and variation in these associations among specific social needs.Methods. In this study, we used results from a 10-item social needs screener conducted across 19 primary care practices in a large urban health system in Bronx County, New York, between April 2018 and July 2019. We estimated the association between unmet needs and 2-year history of missed appointments from 41 637 patients by using negative binomial regression models.Results. The overall no-show appointment proportion was 26.6%. Adjusted models suggest that patients with 1 or more social needs had a significantly higher no-show proportion (31.5%) than those without any social needs (26.3%), representing an 19.8% increase (P < .001). We observed a positive trend (P < .001) between the number of reported social needs and the no-show proportion-26.3% for those with no needs, 30.0% for 1 need, 32.1% for 2 needs, and 33.8% for 3 or more needs. The strongest association was for those with health care transportation need as compared with those without (36.0% vs 26.9%).Conclusions. We found unmet social needs to have a significant association with missed primary care appointments with potential implications on cost, quality, and access for health systems.

Trends in tap and bottled water consumption among children and adults in the United States: analyses of NHANES 2011-16 data.

BACKGROUND: Dietary Guidelines for Americans 2015-20 recommend choosing water in place of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). This study examined water consumption patterns and trends among children and adults in the US. METHODS: Dietary intake data for 7453 children (4-18y) and 15,263 adults (>19y) came from two 24 h dietary recalls in three cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2011-2016). Water was categorized as tap or bottled (plain). Other beverages were assigned to 15 categories. Water and other beverage intakes (in mL/d) were analyzed by sociodemographic variables and sourcing location. Consumption time trends from 2011 to 2016 were also examined. Total water intakes from water, other beverages and moisture from foods (mL/d) were compared to Dietary Reference Intakes (DRI) for water. RESULTS: Total dietary water (2718 mL/d) came from water (1066 mL/d), other beverages (1036 mL/d) and from food moisture (618 mL/d). Whereas total water intakes remained stable, a significant decline in SSB from 2011 to 2016 was fully offset by an increase in the consumption of plain water. The main sources of water were tap at home (288 mL/d), tap away from home (301 mL/d), and bottled water from stores (339 mL/d). Water and other beverage consumption patterns varied with age, incomes and race/ethnicity. Higher tap water consumption was associated with higher incomes, but bottled water was not. Non-Hispanic whites consumed most tap water (781 mL/d) whereas Mexican Americans consumed most bottled water (605 mL/d). Only about 40% of the NHANES sample on average followed US recommendations for adequate water intakes. CONCLUSION: The present results suggest that while total water intakes among children and adults have stayed constant, drinking water, tap and bottled, has been replacing SSB in the US diet.

Trends in Diet Quality Among Youth in the United States, 1999-2016.

Importance: Prior studies of dietary trends among US youth have evaluated major macronutrients or only a few foods or have used older data. Objective: To characterize trends in diet quality among US youth. Design, Setting, and Participants: Serial cross-sectional investigation using 24-hour dietary recalls from youth aged 2 to 19 years from 9 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cycles (1999-2016). Exposures: Calendar year and population sociodemographic characteristics. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were the survey-weighted, energy-adjusted mean consumption of dietary components and proportion meeting targets of the American Heart Association (AHA) 2020 continuous diet score (range, 0-50; based on total fruits and vegetables, whole grains, fish and shellfish, sugar-sweetened beverages, and sodium). Additional outcomes were the AHA secondary score (range, 0-80; adding nuts, seeds, and legumes; processed meat; and saturated fat) and Healthy Eating Index (HEI) 2015 score (range, 0-100). Poor diet was defined as less than 40% adherence (scores, <20 for primary and <32 for secondary AHA scores); intermediate as 40% to 79.9% adherence (scores, 20-39.9 and 32-63.9, respectively); and ideal, as at least 80% adherence (scores, ≥40 and ≥64, respectively). Higher diet scores indicate better diet quality; a minimal clinically important difference has not been quantified. Results: Of 31 420 youth aged 2 to 19 years included, the mean age was 10.6 years; 49.1% were female. From 1999 to 2016, the estimated AHA primary diet score significantly increased from 14.8 (95% CI, 14.1-15.4) to 18.8 (95% CI, 18.1-19.6) (27.0% improvement), the estimated AHA secondary diet score from 29.2 (95% CI, 28.1-30.4) to 33.0 (95% CI, 32.0-33.9) (13.0% improvement), and the estimated HEI-2015 score from 44.6 (95% CI, 43.5-45.8) to 49.6 (95% CI, 48.5-50.8) (11.2% improvement) (P < .001 for trend for each). Based on the AHA primary diet score, the estimated proportion of youth with poor diets significantly declined from 76.8% (95% CI, 72.9%-80.2%) to 56.1% (95% CI, 51.4%-60.7%) and with intermediate diets significantly increased from 23.2% (95% CI, 19.8%-26.9%) to 43.7% (95% CI, 39.1%-48.3%) (P < .001 for trend for each). The estimated proportion meeting ideal quality significantly increased but remained low, from 0.07% (95% CI, 0.01%-0.49%) to 0.25% (95% CI, 0.10%-0.62%) (P = .03 for trend). Persistent dietary variations were identified across multiple sociodemographic groups. The estimated proportion of youth with a poor diet in 2015-2016 was 39.8% (95% CI, 35.1%-44.5%) for ages 2 to 5 years (unweighted n = 666), 52.5% (95% CI, 46.4%-58.5%) for ages 6 to 11 years (unweighted n = 1040), and 66.6% (95% CI, 61.4%-71.4%) for ages 12 to 19 years (unweighted n = 1195), with persistent differences across levels of parental education, household income, and household food security status. Conclusions and Relevance: Based on serial NHANES surveys from 1999 to 2016, the estimated overall diet quality of US youth showed modest improvement, but more than half of youth still had poor-quality diets.

Cardiometabolic disease costs associated with suboptimal diet in the United States: A cost analysis based on a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: Poor diet is a leading risk factor for cardiometabolic disease (CMD) in the United States, but its economic costs are unknown. We sought to estimate the cost associated with suboptimal diet in the US. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A validated microsimulation model (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends [CVD PREDICT]) was used to estimate annual cardiovascular disease (fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction, angina, and stroke) and type 2 diabetes costs associated with suboptimal intake of 10 food groups (fruits, vegetables, nuts/seeds, whole grains, unprocessed red meats, processed meats, sugar-sweetened beverages, polyunsaturated fats, seafood omega-3 fats, sodium). A representative US population sample of individuals aged 35-85 years was created using weighted sampling from National Health And Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) 2009-2012 cycles. Estimates were stratified by cost type (acute, chronic, drug), sex, age, race, education, BMI, and health insurance. Annual diet-related CMD costs were $301/person (95% CI $287-$316). This translates to $50.4 billion in CMD costs (18.2% of total) for the whole population, of which 84.3% are attributed to acute care ($42.6 billion). The largest annual per capita costs are attributed to low consumption of nuts/seeds ($81; 95% CI $74-$86) and seafood omega-3 fats ($76; 95% CI $70-$83), and the lowest are attributed to high consumption of red meat ($3; 95% CI $2.8-$3.5) and polyunsaturated fats ($20; 95% CI $19-$22). Individual costs are highest for men ($380), those aged ≥65 years ($408), blacks ($320), the less educated ($392), and those with Medicare ($481) or dual-eligible ($536) insurance coverage. A limitation of our study is that dietary intake data were assessed from 24-hour dietary recall, which may not fully capture a diet over a person's life span and is subject to measurement errors. CONCLUSIONS: Suboptimal diet of 10 dietary factors accounts for 18.2% of all ischemic heart disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes costs in the US, highlighting that timely implementation of diet policies could address these health and economic burdens.

Use of dietary supplements in relation to urinary phthalate metabolite concentrations: Results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

BACKGROUND: Research suggests that dietary supplements may be a source of exposure to phthalates, given that diethyl phthalate (DEP) or di-n-butyl phthalate (DBP) can be components of coatings that facilitate extended release or encapsulate dietary supplements. METHODS: Using nationally representative data on a population of 12,281 adults ages 20 y + surveyed between 1999 and 2014 from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), we evaluated the association between dietary supplement use in relation to urinary phthalate metabolites of DEP (monoethyl phthalate, MEP) and DBP (mono-n-butyl phthalate, MBP). We examined associations pertaining to regular use of multivitamin/multimineral (MVMM) supplements, as well as regular use of any other non-MVMM supplement products, the number of non-MVMM supplement products used, as well as individual supplements potentially containing phthalates (exclusive of MVMM). For each urinary phthalate metabolite, results are presented as the minimally-adjusted and multivariable-adjusted ratio, comparing the geometric mean among users to non-users. RESULTS: In multivariable models, we observed a significant positive association between regular use of MVMM use and MEP, with persons using MVMM supplements having 11% higher geometric mean MEP than non-users (Ratio: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.04-1.20); no association was observed for MVMM in relation to MBP. No other significant multivariable-adjusted associations were observed, although power was limited in analyses of individual supplements. Associations did not markedly vary by gender; however, the associations of garlic supplement use with MEP and MBP varied by calendar time, with statistically significant positive associations observed in later years. CONCLUSIONS: A modest significant association was observed between MVMM use and MEP. No other significant associations were observed in our overall multivariable models. Follow-up on the positive association observed between garlic and urinary phthalate metabolite concentrations observed in later years in a well-powered, prospective study would further clarify study findings.

Trends in Dietary Carbohydrate, Protein, and Fat Intake and Diet Quality Among US Adults, 1999-2016.

Importance: Changes in the economy, nutrition policies, and food processing methods can affect dietary macronutrient intake and diet quality. It is essential to evaluate trends in dietary intake, food sources, and diet quality to inform policy makers. Objective: To investigate trends in dietary macronutrient intake, food sources, and diet quality among US adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: Serial cross-sectional analysis of the US nationally representative 24-hour dietary recall data from 9 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey cycles (1999-2016) among adults aged 20 years or older. Exposure: Survey cycle. Main Outcomes and Measures: Dietary intake of macronutrients and their subtypes, food sources, and the Healthy Eating Index 2015 (range, 0-100; higher scores indicate better diet quality; a minimal clinically important difference has not been defined). Results: There were 43 996 respondents (weighted mean age, 46.9 years; 51.9% women). From 1999 to 2016, the estimated energy from total carbohydrates declined from 52.5% to 50.5% (difference, -2.02%; 95% CI, -2.41% to -1.63%), whereas that of total protein and total fat increased from 15.5% to 16.4% (difference, 0.82%; 95% CI, 0.67%-0.97%) and from 32.0% to 33.2% (difference, 1.20%; 95% CI, 0.84%-1.55%), respectively (all P < .001 for trend). Estimated energy from low-quality carbohydrates decreased by 3.25% (95% CI, 2.74%-3.75%; P < .001 for trend) from 45.1% to 41.8%. Increases were observed in estimated energy from high-quality carbohydrates (by 1.23% [95% CI, 0.84%-1.61%] from 7.42% to 8.65%), plant protein (by 0.38% [95% CI, 0.28%-0.49%] from 5.38% to 5.76%), saturated fatty acids (by 0.36% [95% CI, 0.20%-0.51%] from 11.5% to 11.9%), and polyunsaturated fatty acids (by 0.65% [95% CI, 0.56%-0.74%] from 7.58% to 8.23%) (all P < .001 for trend). The estimated overall Healthy Eating Index 2015 increased from 55.7 to 57.7 (difference, 2.01; 95% CI, 0.86-3.16; P < .001 for trend). Trends in high- and low-quality carbohydrates primarily reflected higher estimated energy from whole grains (0.65%) and reduced estimated energy from added sugars (-2.00%), respectively. Trends in plant protein were predominantly due to higher estimated intake of whole grains (0.12%) and nuts (0.09%). Conclusions and Relevance: From 1999 to 2016, US adults experienced a significant decrease in percentage of energy intake from low-quality carbohydrates and significant increases in percentage of energy intake from high-quality carbohydrates, plant protein, and polyunsaturated fat. Despite improvements in macronutrient composition and diet quality, continued high intake of low-quality carbohydrates and saturated fat remained.

Cost-effectiveness of financial incentives and disincentives for improving food purchases and health through the US Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP): A microsimulation study.

BACKGROUND: The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) provides approximately US$70 billion annually to support food purchases by low-income households, supporting approximately 1 in 7 Americans. In the 2018 Farm Bill, potential SNAP revisions to improve diets and health could include financial incentives, disincentives, or restrictions for certain foods. However, the overall and comparative impacts on health outcomes and costs are not established. We aimed to estimate the health impact, program and healthcare costs, and cost-effectiveness of food incentives, disincentives, or restrictions in SNAP. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a validated microsimulation model (CVD-PREDICT), populated with national data on adult SNAP participants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009-2014, policy effects from SNAP pilots and food pricing meta-analyses, diet-disease effects from meta-analyses, and policy, food, and healthcare costs from published literature to estimate the overall and comparative impacts of 3 dietary policy interventions: (1) a 30% incentive for fruits and vegetables (F&V), (2) a 30% F&V incentive with a restriction of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), and (3) a broader incentive/disincentive program for multiple foods that also preserves choice (SNAP-plus), combining 30% incentives for F&V, nuts, whole grains, fish, and plant-based oils and 30% disincentives for SSBs, junk food, and processed meats. Among approximately 14.5 million adults on SNAP at baseline with mean age 52 years, our simulation estimates that the F&V incentive over 5 years would prevent 38,782 cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, gain 18,928 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and save $1.21 billion in healthcare costs. Adding SSB restriction increased gains to 93,933 CVD events prevented, 45,864 QALYs gained, and $4.33 billion saved. For SNAP-plus, corresponding gains were 116,875 CVD events prevented, 56,056 QALYs gained, and $5.28 billion saved. Over a lifetime, the F&V incentive would prevent approximately 303,900 CVD events, gain 649,000 QALYs, and save $6.77 billion in healthcare costs. Adding SSB restriction increased gains to approximately 797,900 CVD events prevented, 2.11 million QALYs gained, and $39.16 billion in healthcare costs saved. For SNAP-plus, corresponding gains were approximately 940,000 CVD events prevented, 2.47 million QALYs gained, and $41.93 billion saved. From a societal perspective (including programmatic costs but excluding food subsidy costs as an intra-societal transfer), all 3 scenarios were cost-saving. From a government affordability perspective (i.e., incorporating food subsidy costs, including for children and young adults for whom no health gains were modeled), the F&V incentive was of low cost-effectiveness at 5 years (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $548,053/QALY) but achieved cost-effectiveness ($66,525/QALY) over a lifetime. Adding SSB restriction, the intervention was cost-effective at 10 years ($68,857/QALY) and very cost-effective at 20 years ($26,435/QALY) and over a lifetime ($5,216/QALY). The combined incentive/disincentive program produced the largest health gains and reduced both healthcare and food costs, with net cost-savings of $10.16 billion at 5 years and $63.33 billion over a lifetime. Results were consistent in probabilistic sensitivity analyses: for example, from a societal perspective, 1,000 of 1,000 iterations (100%) were cost-saving for all 3 interventions. Due to the nature of simulation studies, the findings cannot prove the health and cost impacts of national SNAP interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Leveraging healthier eating through SNAP could generate substantial health benefits and be cost-effective or cost-saving. A combined food incentive/disincentive program appears most effective and may be most attractive to policy-makers.

Beverage consumption patterns among 4-19 y old children in 2009-14 NHANES show that the milk and 100% juice pattern is associated with better diets.

BACKGROUND: Patterns of beverage consumption among children and adolescents can be indicative of food choices and total diet quality. METHODS: Analyses of beverage consumption patterns among 8119 children aged 4-19 y were based on the first 24-h recall of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2009-14 NHANES). Four pre-defined beverage patterns were: 1) milk pattern; 2) 100% juice pattern; 3) milk and 100% juice pattern; and 4) other caloric beverages. Food- and nutrient-based diet quality measures included the Healthy Eating Index 2010. RESULTS: Most children drank other caloric beverages, as opposed to milk (17.8%), 100% juice (5.6%), or milk and 100% juice (13.5%). Drinkers of milk and 100% juice had diets that did not differ from each other in total calories, total and added sugars, fiber, or vitamin E. Milk drinkers consumed more dairy and had higher intakes of calcium, potassium, vitamin A and vitamin D as compared to all other patterns. Juice drinkers consumed more total fruit, same amounts of whole fruit, and had higher intakes of vitamin C as compared to the other consumption patterns. Drinkers of both milk and 100% juice had the highest HEI 2010 scores of all the consumption patterns. CONCLUSIONS: Beverage consumption patterns built around milk and/or 100% juice were relatively uncommon. Promoting the drinking of milk and 100% juice, in preference to other caloric beverages, may be an effective strategy to improve children's diet quality. Restricting milk and 100% juice consumption may encourage the selection of other caloric beverages.

The State of US Health, 1990-2016: Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Among US States.

Introduction: Several studies have measured health outcomes in the United States, but none have provided a comprehensive assessment of patterns of health by state. Objective: To use the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) to report trends in the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors at the state level from 1990 to 2016. Design and Setting: A systematic analysis of published studies and available data sources estimates the burden of disease by age, sex, geography, and year. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalence, incidence, mortality, life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 causes and 84 risk factors with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were computed. Results: Between 1990 and 2016, overall death rates in the United States declined from 745.2 (95% UI, 740.6 to 749.8) per 100 000 persons to 578.0 (95% UI, 569.4 to 587.1) per 100 000 persons. The probability of death among adults aged 20 to 55 years declined in 31 states and Washington, DC from 1990 to 2016. In 2016, Hawaii had the highest life expectancy at birth (81.3 years) and Mississippi had the lowest (74.7 years), a 6.6-year difference. Minnesota had the highest HALE at birth (70.3 years), and West Virginia had the lowest (63.8 years), a 6.5-year difference. The leading causes of DALYs in the United States for 1990 and 2016 were ischemic heart disease and lung cancer, while the third leading cause in 1990 was low back pain, and the third leading cause in 2016 was chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Opioid use disorders moved from the 11th leading cause of DALYs in 1990 to the 7th leading cause in 2016, representing a 74.5% (95% UI, 42.8% to 93.9%) change. In 2016, each of the following 6 risks individually accounted for more than 5% of risk-attributable DALYs: tobacco consumption, high body mass index (BMI), poor diet, alcohol and drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high blood pressure. Across all US states, the top risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs were due to 1 of the 3 following causes: tobacco consumption (32 states), high BMI (10 states), or alcohol and drug use (8 states). Conclusions and Relevance: There are wide differences in the burden of disease at the state level. Specific diseases and risk factors, such as drug use disorders, high BMI, poor diet, high fasting plasma glucose level, and alcohol use disorders are increasing and warrant increased attention. These data can be used to inform national health priorities for research, clinical care, and policy.

Modeling Future Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in the United States: National Trends and Racial and Ethnic Disparities.

BACKGROUND: Accurate forecasting of cardiovascular disease mortality is crucial to guide policy and programming efforts. Prior forecasts often have not incorporated past trends in rates of reduction in cardiovascular disease mortality. This creates uncertainties about future trends in cardiovascular disease mortality and disparities. METHODS AND RESULTS: To forecast US cardiovascular disease mortality and disparities to 2030, we developed a hierarchical bayesian model to determine and incorporate prior age, period, and cohort effects from 1979 to 2012, stratified by age, sex, and race, which we combined with expected demographic shifts to 2030. Data sources included the National Vital Statistics System, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) single-year population estimates, and US Bureau of Statistics 2012 national population projections. We projected coronary disease and stroke deaths to 2030, first on the basis of constant age, period, and cohort effects at 2012 values, as is most commonly done (conventional), and then with the use of more rigorous projections incorporating expected trends in age, period, and cohort effects (trend based). We primarily evaluated absolute mortality. The conventional model projected total coronary and stroke deaths by 2030 to increase by ≈18% (67 000 additional coronary deaths per year) and 50% (64 000 additional stroke deaths per year). Conversely, the trend-based model projected that coronary mortality would decrease by 2030 by ≈27% (79 000 fewer deaths per year) and stroke mortality would remain unchanged (200 fewer deaths per year). Health disparities will be improved in stroke deaths but not coronary deaths. CONCLUSIONS: After prior mortality trends and expected demographic shifts are accounted for, total US coronary deaths are expected to decline, whereas stroke mortality will remain relatively constant. Health disparities in stroke but not coronary deaths will be improved but not eliminated. These age, period, and cohort approaches offer more plausible predictions than conventional estimates.

Reducing US cardiovascular disease burden and disparities through national and targeted dietary policies: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Large socio-economic disparities exist in US dietary habits and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. While economic incentives have demonstrated success in improving dietary choices, the quantitative impact of different dietary policies on CVD disparities is not well established. We aimed to quantify and compare the potential effects on total CVD mortality and disparities of specific dietary policies to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption and reduce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption in the US. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the US IMPACT Food Policy Model and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, we estimated and compared the reductions in CVD mortality and socio-economic disparities in the US population potentially achievable from 2015 to 2030 with specific dietary policy scenarios: (a) a national mass media campaign (MMC) aimed to increase consumption of F&Vs and reduce consumption of SSBs, (b) a national fiscal policy to tax SSBs to increase prices by 10%, (c) a national fiscal policy to subsidise F&Vs to reduce prices by 10%, and (d) a targeted policy to subsidise F&Vs to reduce prices by 30% among Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participants only. We also evaluated a combined policy approach, combining all of the above policies. Data sources included the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, National Vital Statistics System, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, and published meta-analyses. Among the individual policy scenarios, a national 10% F&V subsidy was projected to be most beneficial, potentially resulting in approximately 150,500 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 141,400-158,500) CVD deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) by 2030 in the US. This far exceeds the approximately 35,100 (95% UI 31,700-37,500) DPPs potentially attributable to a 30% F&V subsidy targeting SNAP participants, the approximately 25,800 (95% UI 24,300-28,500) DPPs for a 1-y MMC, or the approximately 31,000 (95% UI 26,800-35,300) DPPs for a 10% SSB tax. Neither the MMC nor the individual national economic policies would significantly reduce CVD socio-economic disparities. However, the SNAP-targeted intervention might potentially reduce CVD disparities between SNAP participants and SNAP-ineligible individuals, by approximately 8% (10 DPPs per 100,000 population). The combined policy approach might save more lives than any single policy studied (approximately 230,000 DPPs by 2030) while also significantly reducing disparities, by approximately 6% (7 DPPs per 100,000 population). Limitations include our effect estimates in the model; these estimates use interventional and prospective observational studies (not exclusively randomised controlled trials). They are thus imperfect and should be interpreted as the best available evidence. Another key limitation is that we considered only CVD outcomes; the policies we explored would undoubtedly have additional beneficial effects upon other diseases. Further, we did not model or compare the cost-effectiveness of each proposed policy. CONCLUSIONS: Fiscal strategies targeting diet might substantially reduce CVD burdens. A national 10% F&V subsidy would save by far the most lives, while a 30% F&V subsidy targeting SNAP participants would most reduce socio-economic disparities. A combined policy would have the greatest overall impact on both mortality and socio-economic disparities.

The potential impact of food taxes and subsidies on cardiovascular disease and diabetes burden and disparities in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Fiscal interventions are promising strategies to improve diets, reduce cardiovascular disease and diabetes (cardiometabolic diseases; CMD), and address health disparities. The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of specific dietary taxes and subsidies on CMD deaths and disparities in the US. METHODS: Using nationally representative data, we used a comparative risk assessment to model the potential effects on total CMD deaths and disparities of price subsidies (10%, 30%) on fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and nuts/seeds and taxes (10%, 30%) on processed meat, unprocessed red meats, and sugar-sweetened beverages. We modeled two gradients of price-responsiveness by education, an indicator of socioeconomic status (SES), based on global price elasticities (18% greater price-responsiveness in low vs. high SES) and recent national experiences with taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (65% greater price-responsiveness in low vs. high SES). RESULTS: Each price intervention would reduce CMD deaths. Overall, the largest proportional reductions were seen in stroke, followed by diabetes and coronary heart disease. Jointly altering prices of all seven dietary factors (10% each, with 18% greater price-responsiveness by SES) would prevent 23,174 (95% UI 22,024-24,595) CMD deaths/year, corresponding to 3.1% (95% UI 2.9-3.4) of CMD deaths among Americans with a lower than high school education, 3.6% (95% UI 3.3-3.8) among high school graduates/some college, and 2.9% (95% UI 2.7-3.5) among college graduates. Applying a 30% price change and larger price-responsiveness (65%) in low SES, the corresponding reductions were 10.9% (95% UI 9.2-10.8), 9.8% (95% UI 9.1-10.4), and 6.7% (95% UI 6.2-7.6). The latter scenario would reduce disparities in CMD between Americans with lower than high school versus a college education by 3.5 (95% UI 2.3-4.5) percentage points. CONCLUSIONS: Modest taxes and subsidies for key dietary factors could meaningfully reduce CMD and improve US disparities.

Cardiometabolic Mortality by Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Participation and Eligibility in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate total and cause-specific cardiometabolic mortality among Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participants, SNAP-eligible nonparticipants, and SNAP-ineligible individuals overall and by age, gender, race/ethnicity, and other characteristics. METHODS: We performed a prospective study with nationally representative survey data from the National Health Interview Survey (2000-2009), merged with subsequent Public-Use Linked Mortality Files (2000-2011). We used survey-weighted Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age and gender to estimate hazard ratios of total and cause-specific cardiometabolic mortality for 499 741 US adults aged 25 years or older. RESULTS: Over a mean of 6.8 years of follow-up (maximum 11.9 years), 39 293 deaths occurred, including 7408 heart disease, 2185 stroke, and 1376 diabetes deaths. Individuals participating in SNAP exhibited higher total and cardiovascular disease mortality, largely limited to non-Hispanic Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks, than both SNAP-eligible nonparticipants and SNAP-ineligible individuals, and higher diabetes mortality across races/ethnicities (P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: Participants in SNAP require greater focus to understand and further address their poor health outcomes. Public Health Implications. Low-income Americans require even greater efforts to improve their health than they currently receive, and such efforts should be a priority for public health policymakers.

Replacing American snacks with tree nuts increases consumption of key nutrients among US children and adults: results of an NHANES modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Replacing typical American snacks with tree nuts may be an effective way to improve diet quality and compliance with the 2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGAs). OBJECTIVE: To assess and quantify the impact of replacing typical snacks with composite tree nuts or almonds on diet metrics, including empty calories (i.e., added sugars and solid fats), individual fatty acids, macronutrients, nutrients of public health concern, including sodium, fiber and potassium, and summary measures of diet quality. METHODS: Food pattern modeling was implemented in the nationally representative 2009-2012 National Health and Examination Survey (NHANES) in a population of 17,444 children and adults. All between-meal snacks, excluding beverages, were replaced on a per calorie basis with a weighted tree nut composite, reflecting consumption patterns in the population. Model 1 replaced all snacks with tree nuts, while Model 2 exempted whole fruits, non-starchy vegetables, and whole grains (>50% of total grain content). Additional analyses were conducted using almonds only. Outcomes of interest were empty calories (i.e., solid fats and added sugars), saturated and mono- and polyunsaturated fatty acids, fiber, protein, sodium, potassium and magnesium. The Healthy Eating Index-2010, which measures adherence to the 2010 Dietary Guidelines for Americans, was used as a summary measure of diet quality. RESULTS: Compared to observed diets, modeled food patterns were significantly lower in empty calories (-20.1% and -18.7% in Model 1 and Model 2, respectively), added sugars (-17.8% and -16.9%), solid fats (-21.0% and -19.3%), saturated fat (-6.6% and -7.1%)., and sodium (-12.3% and -11.2%). Modeled patterns were higher in oils (65.3% and 55.2%), monounsaturated (35.4% and 26.9%) and polyunsaturated fats (42.0% and 35.7%), plant omega 3 s (53.1% and 44.7%), dietary fiber (11.1% and 14.8%), and magnesium (29.9% and 27.0%), and were modestly higher in potassium (1.5% and 2.9%). HEI-2010 scores were significantly higher in Model 1 (67.8) and in Model 2 (69.7) compared to observed diets (58.5). Replacing snacks with almonds only produced similar results; the decrease in sodium was more modest and no increase in plant omega-3 fats was observed. CONCLUSION: Replacing between-meal snacks with tree nuts or almonds led to more nutrient-rich diets that were lower in empty calories and sodium and had more favorable fatty acid profiles. Food pattern modeling using NHANES data can be used to assess the likely nutritional impact of dietary guidance.

Factors in Placement and Enrollment of Primary Care Patients in YMCA's Diabetes Prevention Program, Bronx, New York, 2010-2015.

INTRODUCTION: The reach of the New York State YMCA's Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) to at-risk populations may be increased through integration with primary care settings. Although considerable effort has been made in the referral and retention of patients, little is known about the factors associated with the placement of potential participants into YMCA's DPP. METHODS: Among Montefiore Health System (MHS) patients referred to YMCA's DPP (n = 1,249) from July 10, 2010, through November 11, 2015, we identified demographic factors (eg, age, preferred language) and primary care practice-level factors (eg, time between referral and start of session, session season) associated with placement into a session and subsequent drop-out. We also evaluated factors associated with weight loss. RESULTS: Patients were predominantly female (71%) and aged 45 years or older (71%). Patients preferring sessions in Spanish were less often placed in sessions. Patients aged 18 to 44 years were less often placed (P = .01) and enrolled (P = .001) than patients aged 60 years or older. Sessions conducted in the summer and spring had higher enrollment than fall and winter months. Patients who started the YMCA's DPP within 2 months of their referral date were more often enrolled (54.4%) than patients who waited 4 or more months (21.6%) to start their sessions. Patients aged 45 to 59 years lost marginally less weight than those aged 60 years or older (-3.1% vs -3.8%; P = .07). CONCLUSION: Although this evaluation gives some insight into the barriers to placement and enrollment in YMCA's DPP, challenges remain. Efforts are under way to increase referral of patients to community-based DPPs.