Core competencies in applied infectious disease epidemiology: a framework for countries in Europe.

In 2009, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a competency framework to support European Union countries and the European Commission in ensuring a competent public health workforce for Europe. The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic emphasised the importance of harmonised public health strategies and competencies across international boundaries, specifically for infectious diseases. This perspective presents the process to update the competency framework for applied infectious disease epidemiology, highlighting ECDC's efforts to support countries with using the framework. ECDC commissioned the Association of Schools of Public Health in the European Region (ASPHER) to update the framework through publication and dissemination of a technical report and a self-assessment tool linked to training resources. A mixed methods approach to gather input from experts in relevant specialities included qualitative interviews with 42 experts, workshops with ECDC Technical Advisory Group and an online survey of 212 public health professionals across Europe and beyond. Modifications resulted in 157 core competencies in 23 domains, each mapping to one of six subject areas of importance in applied infectious disease epidemiology. The framework serves as a basis to update the curriculum of the ECDC Fellowship programme with two alternative paths: intervention epidemiology or public health microbiology.

Reduction in time to viral suppression among persons living with HIV in Jamaica between 2017-2019.

INTRODUCTION: HIV viral suppression is important for effective treatment and for reducing new infections. In 2019, only 66% of persons on antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Jamaica were virally suppressed. We aim to compare time to viral suppression by ART initiation year and type of treatment site to understand the implications for programming. METHODS: We assessed time to viral suppression among 4560 persons who received viral load testing either pre or post ART initiation from 2017-2019. We used descriptive statistics and Kaplan-Meier estimates to compare survival curves by ART year (2017, 2018, 2019), sex and type of treatment site (public and non-governmental organizations). Persons were censored if suppression was not achieved. Mixed effects Cox regression was used to determine the effect of covariates on the likelihood of viral suppression. We report hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Pre-ART viral load testing decreased from 36% in 2017 to 30% in 2019. For post-ART viral load tests, approximately 78% (n = 1589) of persons achieved suppression, 51% (n = 809) were female and 86% (n = 1341) used a public treatment site. The median time to suppression decreased by 3 months from 2017 to 2019. The likelihood of suppression was almost 2 times greater in 2018 (HR = 1.56, CI = 1.39-1.75) and 3 times greater in 2019 (HR = 3.17, CI = 2.76-3.64) compared to 2017. NGO treatment sites were also significantly associated with the likelihood of viral suppression compared to public sites. CONCLUSION: Pre-ART viral load testing and the time to viral suppression decreased over three years. Initiating ART after 2017 and early use of NGO treatment sites were found to significantly increase the likelihood of achieving suppression. This demonstrates improvements in the national HIV response but there is need to increase the number of persons on ART and achieving viral suppression.

Correction: HIV program outcomes for Jamaica before and after "Treat All": A population-based study using the national treatment services database.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0255781.].

Changing epidemiology of hepatitis B and migration--a comparison of six Northern and North-Western European countries.

BACKGROUND: Increased migration volume and different Hepatitis B prevalence between immigration and emigration countries have changed the Hepatitis B virus (HBV) epidemiology considerably in Northern and North-Western European migrants-receiving countries. Due to the difference in migration status monitoring, the HBV infection data on migrants are not easily comparable among those countries. The study aims were: to compare the migration status indicators used by the national surveillance system in six Northern and North-Western European countries (the Netherlands, Germany, Finland, Denmark, Sweden and the UK); to determine the impact of the migration status on HBV infection by comparing the available data on prevalence and transmission routes of Hepatitis B in the migration and the general population in the six countries; to recommend sensible indicators and pertinent measures for HBV infection surveillance and control in the region. METHODS: Literature review, statistical data analysis on migration and HBV infection in the six countries; expert interviews to identify migration status indicators used in national surveillance systems. RESULTS: Evident differences were found between the migration and the general population in Hepatitis B prevalence and transmission routes in the six countries. Migration status is monitored differently in six surveillance systems; immigrants from high/intermediate Hepatitis B endemic countries constitute a substantial proportion of HBsAg(+) and chronic cases in all six countries. CONCLUSIONS: International migration has an obvious impact on Hepatitis B prevalence in the six countries. It is important to include common migration status indicators and to collect comparable data for HBV infection surveillance in different notification systems.

Trends and factors associated with initiation of HIV treatment among PLHIV in Jamaica, 2015-2019.

INTRODUCTION: Jamaica did not achieve the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets in 2020. This study aimed to examine trends and factors associated with uptake of HIV treatment among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Jamaica and to assess the effectiveness of revised treatment guidelines. METHODS: This secondary analysis used patient-level data from the National Treatment Service Information System. The baseline sample was 8147 PLHIV initiating anti-retroviral treatment (ART) between January 2015-December 2019. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize demographic and clinical variables and the primary outcome timing of ART initiation. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with ART initiation (same day vs 31+ days), using categorical variables for age group, sex and regional health authority. Adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals are reported. RESULTS: Most persons initiated ART at 31+ days (n = 3666, 45%) after the first clinic date or on the same day (n = 3461, 43%). Same day ART initiation increased from 37% to 51% over 5 years and was significantly associated with males (aOR = 0.82, CI = 0.74-0.92), 2018 (aOR = 0.66, CI = 0.56-0.77), 2019 (aOR = 0.77, CI = 0.65-0.92). late HIV diagnosis (aOR = 0.3, CI = 0.27-0.33) and viral suppression at the first viral load test (aOR = 0.6, CI = 0.53-0.67). ART initiation at 31+days was associated with 2015 (aOR = 1.21, CI = 1.01-1.45) and 2016 (aOR = 1.30, CI = 1.10-1.53) compared to 2017. CONCLUSION: Our study shows that same day ART initiation increased between 2015-2019, however it remains too low. Same day initiation was associated with the years after Treat All implementation and late initiation before Treat All, providing evidence of the strategy's success. In order to achieve the UNAIDS targets, there is a need to also increase the number of diagnosed PLHIV retained on treatment in Jamaica. Further studies should be conducted to understand important challenges to accessing treatment as well as differentiated care models to improve treatment uptake and retention.

Spatial Aspects of Health-Developing a Conceptual Framework.

Numerous studies and models address the determinants of health. However, in existing models, the spatial aspects of the determinants are not or only marginally taken into account and a theoretical discussion of the association between space and the determinants of health is missing. The aim of this paper is to generate a framework that can be used to place the determinants of health in a spatial context. A screening of the current first serves to identify the relevant determinants and describes the current state of knowledge. In addition, spatial scales that are important for the spatial consideration of health were developed and discussed. Based on these two steps, the conceptual framework on the spatial determinants of health was derived and subsequently discussed. The results show a variety of determinants that are associated with health from a spatial point of view. The overarching categories are global driving forces, policy and governance, living and physical environment, socio-demographic and economic conditions, healthcare services and cultural and working conditions. Three spatial scales (macro, meso and micro) are further subdivided into six levels, such as global (e.g., continents), regional (e.g., council areas) or neighbourhood (e.g., communities). The combination of the determinants and spatial scales are presented within a conceptual framework as a result of this work. Operating mechanisms and pathways between the spatial levels were added schematically. This is the first conceptual framework that links the determinants of health with the spatial perspective. It can form the working basis for future analyses in which spatial aspects of health are taken into account.

Variation matters: epidemiological surveillance in Europe.

Communicable diseases do not respect national boundaries and are important challenges to health internationally. This article aims to support the improvement and integration of surveillance systems in Europe and beyond by drawing on research comparing national systems. Definitions and concepts of epidemiological surveillance are described as a continuous systematic process that observes and reflects the real situation in society not only within but also across political boundaries. Outbreaks that affect more than one country show that a systematic comparative analysis of surveillance systems in Europe can help improve disease control. National surveillance systems from six European Union countries and from a later comparison of twenty-six European countries are examined. An effective surveillance system can provide information for action and act as a monitoring body for health authorities. Nevertheless, many European surveillance systems still require improvement in the interests of public health.

HIV program outcomes for Jamaica before and after "Treat All": A population-based study using the national treatment services database.

OBJECTIVE: The study aims to assess changes in HIV treatment outcomes for Jamaica after the implementation of the WHO Treat All strategy in January 2017, as well as identify variables associated with clinical stage at diagnosis and viral load status, in order to understand implications for enhancing the HIV clinical cascade and boosting progress towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. METHOD: This is a population-based study using the National Treatment Service Information System. The sample consists of persons 15 years and older, placed on treatment before and after Treat All was implemented, across all 4 regional health authorities in Jamaica. Patients were assessed for two binary outcomes: 1. stage at HIV diagnosis (early/baseline CD4 cell count ≧350 cells/mm3, or late/ baseline CD4 <350 cells/mm3), 2. viral load status achieved after ART initiation (suppressed/<1000 copies/ml or non-suppressed/ ≥1000 copies/ml). Categorical variables: age/years, gender and health regions, were investigated using multivariable logistic regression. Adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals are reported. RESULTS: After Treat All, there was an increase in median baseline CD4 results as the proportion of late diagnoses decreased from 60% to 39%. There was a small increase in viral suppression from 76% to 80%, a decrease in baseline viral load testing from 61% to 46% and an increase in the uptake of first viral load testing after starting treatment from 13% to 19%. Males and persons 40+ years had higher odds of late diagnosis before and after Treat All. CONCLUSION: Jamaica's HIV program outcomes have improved after Treat All was implemented. ART initiation time significantly decreased. Early diagnosis, viral load testing uptake and viral suppression increased. However, there is a need to implement targeted testing for men and persons over 40 years to decrease the frequency of late diagnosis.

Exploring Trends and Differences in Health Behaviours of Health Sciences University Students from Germany and England: Findings from the "SuSy" Project.

Objectives: This research aimed to explore the health behaviours of health sciences students over time and across different settings. Methods: A health behaviour surveillance system has been implemented in Hamburg and Manchester among under- and postgraduate health sciences students. Trends among the Hamburg sample were described. In a cross-sectional assessment, health behaviours across both universities were examined using multivariate regression analysis. Results: Between 2014 and 2018, increasing trends in physical activity and cannabis and alcohol consumption were observed in Hamburg (n = 1,366). While fruit and vegetable intake was constantly low, tobacco smoking decreased. No clear trend was observed for stress perception. The comparison (n = 474) revealed that Manchester students had higher odds of smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, and fruit and vegetable consumption; and lower odds of being physically active, and consuming cannabis. No difference in stress perception was observed. Conclusions: Varying trends and potential areas of intervention were identified for health behaviours in Hamburg. The comparison with Manchester students revealed differences in behaviours, which could be further explored to help inform health promotion strategies in both settings.

Exploring the influence of deforestation on dengue fever incidence in the Brazilian Amazonas state.

INTRODUCTION: Dengue fever is the most prevalent arboviral disease in the Brazilian Amazon and places a major health, social and economic burden on the region. Its association with deforestation is largely unknown, yet the clearing of tropical rainforests has been linked to the emergence of several infectious diseases, including yellow fever and malaria. This study aimed to explore potential drivers of dengue emergence in the Brazilian Amazon with a focus on deforestation. METHODS: An ecological study design using municipality-level secondary data from the Amazonas state between 2007 and 2017 (reported rural dengue cases, incremental deforestation, socioeconomic characteristics, healthcare and climate factors) was employed. Data were transformed according to the year with the most considerable deforestation. Associations were explored using bivariate analysis and a multivariate generalised linear model. RESULTS: During the study period 2007-2017, both dengue incidence and deforestation increased. Bivariate analysis revealed increased incidences for some years after deforestation (e.g. mean difference between dengue incidence before and three years after deforestation was 55.47 cases per 100,000, p = 0.002), however, there was no association between the extent of deforestation and dengue incidence. Using a negative binomial regression model adjusted for socioeconomic, climate and healthcare factors, deforestation was not found to be related to dengue incidence. Access to healthcare was found to be the only significant predictor of dengue incidence. DISCUSSION: Previous research has shown that deforestation facilitates the emergence of vector-borne diseases. However, no significant dose-response relationships between dengue incidence and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazonas state were found in this study. The finding that access to healthcare was the only significant predictor of dengue incidence suggests that incidence may be more dependent on surveillance than transmission. Further research and public attention are needed to better understand environmental effects on human health and to preserve the world's largest rainforest.

Controlling SARS: a review on China's response compared with other SARS-affected countries.

OBJECTIVE: To summarise the major control measures implemented by severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-affected countries and to compare distinctive features of the Chinese approach to other affected Asian countries and Canada. METHOD: Literature review. RESULTS: The realisation in March 2003 that SARS was spreading led affected countries to introduce measures such as rapid dissemination of information, early case detection and isolation, tracing and quarantining of SARS contacts, traveller screening, raising public awareness of risk and institution of stricter infection control in health care settings. SARS became a notifiable disease in China in mid-April 2003, after which introduction of efficient nationwide control measures led to containment within 2 months. Countries differed in the timeliness of implementing control measures, the mode and extent to which these were enforced and in the resources available to do so. CONCLUSION: SARS challenged the political and public health systems of all affected countries. It demanded rapid and decisive action to be taken, yet the comparison shows how difficult this was for an unknown new disease. Guangdong reacted rapidly but this pace was not continued by China for some time, which facilitated national and international spread. Once the Chinese government changed its policy, it developed an impressive control strategy involving the public which culminated in containment. The significance of timely information was perhaps the main lesson which the SARS epidemic taught.

Cancer survival analysis in Hamburg 1995-2003: assessing the data quality within a population-based registry.

INTRODUCTION: Population-based cancer survival analysis constitutes valuable reference material for the clinical field of oncology. The objectives of this study were to assess the quality of the Hamburg Cancer Registry's (HCR) database in this respect, to perform survival analyses by means of selected sites, and to evaluate the results in relation to prevalent opinions and external estimates. METHODS: Data quality was assessed by the proportion of cases documented as diagnosed at death, external estimates of completeness, reliability of follow-up, histological verification and information on stage. Included were first primary malignancies of the colon (ICD10 C18, n=4,544), female breast (C50, n=9,259), prostate (C61, n=5,707) and urinary bladder (C67, D09.0, n=3,148), diagnosed in Hamburg residents 1995-2003. Observed and relative survival (OS, RS) were estimated by site, sex, time, age and stage. RESULTS: Regarding female breast cancer in Hamburg, high levels of data quality and completeness exist while the explanatory power concerning malignancies of the colon, prostate and urinary bladder is limited. Age-standardised 5-year relative cancer survival estimates amounted for female breast to 81%, for colon to 49% (male) and 52% (female), for prostate to 81% and for urinary bladder to 71% (male) and 62% (female). CONCLUSION: The study demonstrates the capacities and limitations of an epidemiological cancer registry to produce convincing survival estimates for clinical use, under the terms of a voluntary case reporting system.

Impact of public health interventions in controlling the spread of SARS: modelling of intervention scenarios.

A variety of intervention measures exist to prevent and control diseases with pandemic potential like SARS or pandemic influenza. They differ in their approach and effectiveness in reducing the number of cases getting infected. The effects of different intervention measures were investigated by a mathematical modelling approach, with comparisons based on the effective reproduction number (R(e)). The analysis showed that early case detection followed by strict isolation could control a SARS outbreak. Tracing close contacts of cases and contacts of exposed health care workers additionally reduces the R(e). Tracing casual contacts and measures aiming to decrease social interaction were less effective in reducing the number of SARS cases. The study emphasizes the importance of early identification and isolation of SARS cases to reduce the number of people getting infected. However, doing so transfers cases to health care facilities, making infection control measures in hospitals essential to avoid nosocomial spread. The modelling approach applied in this study is useful for analysing interactions of different intervention measures for reducing the R(e) of SARS.

Evaluation of national pandemic management policies-A hazard analysis of critical control points approach.

Analyses of pandemic preparedness policies revealed weaknesses in control systems of European nations. This reinforces the need to support countries in their endeavours to prevent and contain pandemics. A Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) was applied to a generic plan to identify weaknesses in pandemic management policies, in order to develop recommendations for improving national pandemic management systems. Policy components considered in our analysis are command and control, early case detection and disease surveillance, and community containment management. The main critical areas identified in national pandemic control were: communication systems among all institutions and levels involved in pandemic management, guidelines and regulations describing how key personal and institutions should operate during a pandemic, training and dissemination of information to health care personnel involved in outbreak management. The HACCP analysis highlighted the need for agreed communication structures, clear division of responsibilities and harmonised policy guidelines at all levels of pandemic management. Being prepared is the key to successfully coordinate and implement response measures when a pandemic emerges.

Case-case study of a Salmonella outbreak: an epidemiologic method to analyse surveillance data.

Routine infectious disease surveillance data has to be analysed quickly in order to prevent further disease transmission. This can be done by using epidemiological studies, such as case-control studies. However, these studies are complex to perform and susceptible for biases. An alternative is the case-case study design which is less prone to such limitations. So far mainly methodological publications of this study design exist. In this investigation, outbreak cases are compared with cases infected with the same disease. A Salmonella outbreak was analysed with a case-case study design in order to test the applicability of this method. The analysis showed significant associations to the consumption beef (OR 11.8; 95% CI 2.4-66.7; p<0.001) and pork (OR 8.44; 95% CI 1.7-46.4; p<0.001). A case-control study on the same outbreak confirmed these results. An infected control group is very comparable to the outbreak cluster, which limits selection and recall bias. However, the calculated OR has to be interpreted in context with the study design. The case-case study design has proven to be a useful tool to analyse surveillance data. It was easy to perform and had methodological benefits.

Tuberculosis transmission in a high incidence area: a retrospective molecular epidemiological study of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Casablanca, Morocco.

Like in most developing countries, tuberculosis represents a major public health problem in Morocco. This paper describes the first study combining molecular and conventional epidemiology of tuberculosis in Casablanca, the economic capital of this country. Molecular fingerprinting of the genomic DNA recovered from cultures of sputum of 150 patients was performed by MIRU-VNTR. This molecular marker revealed that 53.1% of the total cases were clustered. These cases were classified into 23 clusters ranging in size from 2 to 13 patients, suggesting a rate of 37% of recent transmission in the sample under study. In a multivariate analysis, there were no independent predictors of clustering. However, the clinical form was associated with drug resistance (odds ratio=9.9; P value=0.0006). The phylogenetic analysis showed that the heterogeneity found in this population includes also the members from a same patient family, and that the 2 major families distributed in Casablanca were the Latin-American-Mediterranean (LAM) and Haarlem families. All the results of this work allow to understand better the tuberculosis transmission in Casablanca, and suggest that different clones of M. tuberculosis seem to circulate in this city, and that the reactivation of latent infections would be mainly responsible for the endemic situation of this disease. These findings indicate also that the transmission of TB in Morocco is not optimally controlled, and that efforts for control strategies should be sustained in all developing countries where the incidence of TB is high and still raising.

Implementing a second-generation HIV surveillance system in Romania: experiences and challenges.

BACKGROUND: Romania is a low prevalence country for HIV. Nevertheless, a special epidemiological situation is evolving because of the high percentage of children who were infected by nosocomial transmission between 1986 and 1991 and the consequent increasing number of sexually transmitted cases in adults, in addition to new cases among injecting drug users. In this particular context and with regard to Romania's accession to EU membership, second-generation surveillance (SGS) systems were to be implemented. METHODS: Following a SWOT analysis of the existing surveillance system, a National conference, monthly working groups and a workshop for training were organized with concerned people from central level and from six pilot districts. Specialists in epidemiology, infectious diseases, dermatovenerology and health promotion were involved in the process of developing the survey methodologies, which were based on standard protocols. Methods of testing and legal and ethical issues were discussed, especially for illegal or stigmatized behaviours. RESULTS: Based on the specific HIV epidemiology of each district and also for practical reasons, the surveys developed and implemented were: serological and behavioural surveillance at dermatovenerology clinics in two of the selected districts, serological surveillance among patients aged 15-24 admitted to general hospitals in four districts, and behavioural surveillance among high school pupils aged 15-19 in five districts. CONCLUSIONS: While implementing SGS, financial and human resource constraints encountered in the development and implementation of the surveys at each location need to be taken into account. One of the most important lessons learnt during this project was the importance of teamwork and co-operation between the epidemiologists and clinicians involved in HIV/AIDS surveillance. The lessons learned in Romania could be valuable for many regions in Europe.

Google dengue trends: An indicator of epidemic behavior. The Venezuelan Case.

INTRODUCTION: Dengue Fever is a neglected increasing public health thread. Developing countries are facing surveillance system problems like delay and data loss. Lately, the access and the availability of health-related information on the internet have changed what people seek on the web. In 2004 Google developed Google Dengue Trends (GDT) based on the number of search terms related with the disease in a determined time and place. The goal of this review is to evaluate the accuracy of GDT in comparison with traditional surveillance systems in Venezuela. METHODS: Weekly epidemic data from GDT, Official Reported Cases (ORC) and Expected Cases (EC) according the Ministry of Health (MH) was obtained Monthly and yearly correlation between GDT and ORC from 2004 until 2014 was obtained. Linear regressions taking the reported cases as dependent variable were calculated. RESULTS: The overall Pearson correlation between GDT and ORC was r=0.87 (p <0.001), while between ORC and EC according the Ministry of Health (MH) was r=0.33 (p<0.001). After clustering data in epidemic and non-epidemic weeks in comparison with GDT correlation were r=0.86 (p<0.001) and r=0.65 (p <0.001) respectively. Important interannual variation of the epidemic was observed. The model shows a high accuracy in comparison with the EC, particularly when the incidence of the disease is higher. CONCLUSIONS: This early warning tool can be used as an indicator for other communicable diseases in order to apply effective and timely public health measures especially in the setting of weak surveillance systems.

Licit and illicit substance use patterns among university students in Germany using cluster analysis.

BACKGROUND: The use of multiple licit and illicit substances plays an important role in many university students' lives. Previous research on multiple substance use patterns of university students, however, often fails to examine use of different illicit substances and/or hookah. Our objective was to complement and advance the current knowledge about common consumption patterns regarding illicit substances and hookah use in this group. METHODS: Students from eight German universities completed an online survey as part of the INSIST study ('INternet-based Social norms Intervention for the prevention of substance use among STudents') regarding their consumption of alcohol, tobacco, hookah, cannabis and other illicit substances. Cluster analysis identified distinct consumption patterns of concurrent and non-concurrent substance use and multinomial logistic regressions described key sociodemographic factors associated with these clusters. RESULTS: Six homogeneous groups were identified: 'Alcohol Abstainers' (10.8%), 'Drinkers Only' (48.2%), 'Drinkers and Cigarette Smokers' (14.6%), 'Cannabis and Licit Substance Users' (11.2%), 'Hookah Users with Co-Use' (9.8%) and 'Illicit Substance Users with Co-Use' (5.4%). Illicit substance use clustered with the consumption of alcohol, tobacco and cannabis. Hookah use was regularly associated with alcohol consumption, less commonly associated with tobacco or cannabis use and very rarely associated with use of other illicit substances. Individuals consuming licit and illicit substances or hookah were mostly male and lived together with other students. Characteristics such as the number of years an individual had spent studying at a university, subject of study, immigrant background and religious affiliation were less commonly associated with cluster membership. CONCLUSIONS: Although we found substance use patterns in our sample largely similar to previous reports, we identified an important subgroup of individuals using both illicit and licit substances. These individuals may benefit especially from targeted interventions that focus on modifying addictive behavior patterns. TRIAL REGISTRATION: DRKS00007635 . Registered 17 December 2014 (retrospectively registered).