The influence of weather and weather variability on mosquito abundance and infection with West Nile virus in Harris County, Texas, USA.

Early warning systems for vector-borne diseases (VBDs) prediction are an ecological application where data from the interface of several environmental components can be used to predict future VBD transmission. In general, models for early warning systems only consider average environmental conditions ignoring variation in weather variables, despite the prediction from Schmalhausen's law about the importance of environmental variability for biological systems. We present results from a long-term mosquito surveillance program from Harris County, Texas, USA, where we use time series analysis techniques to study the abundance and West Nile virus (WNV) infection patterns in the local primary vector, Culex quinquefasciatus Say. We found that, as predicted by Schmalhausen's law, mosquito abundance was associated with the standard deviation and kurtosis of environmental variables. By contrast, WNV infection rates were associated with 8-month lagged temperature, suggesting environmental conditions during overwintering might be key for WNV amplification during summer outbreaks. Finally, model validation showed that seasonal autoregressive models successfully predicted mosquito WNV infection rates up to 2 months ahead, but did rather poorly at predicting mosquito abundance, a result that might reflect impacts of vector control for mosquito population reduction, geographic scale, and other artifacts generated by operational constraints of mosquito surveillance systems.

Description and use of the Harris County gravid trap for West Nile virus surveillance 2003-06.

The Harris County Gravid Trap (HCGT) used for West Nile virus (WNV) surveillance from 2003-06 is described. The HCGT collected 1,918,483 Culex quinquefasciatus females (over 36,627 periods), with 466,296.37 (8,452.74) yearly. Only 48,094 Aedes albopictus females (over 15,139 periods) were collected, with 10,277.79 (3,260.33) yearly. The highest mosquito production occurred in July for Cx. quinquefasciatus (63,851.25 +/- 0.13), and for Ae. albopictus (2,981.80 +/- 0.09). Integrating gravid traps within our program has increased our ability to detect WNV efficiently in both species.

Associations between two mosquito populations and West Nile virus in Harris County, Texas, 2003-06.

Associations between Culex quinquefasciatus, Aedes albopictus and West Nile virus (WNV) activity, temperature, and rainfall in Harris County, Texas 2003-06 are discussed. Human cases were highly correlated to Cx. quinquefasciatus (r = 0.87) and Ae. albopictus (r = 0.78) pools, blue jays (r = 0.83), and Ae. albopictus collected (r = 0.71), but not Cx. quinquefasciatus collected (r = 0.45). Human cases were associated with temperature (r = 0.71), not rainfall (r = 0.29), whereas temperature correlated with Ae. albopictus and Cx. quinquefasciatus collections (r = 0.88 and 0.70, respectively) and Cx. quinqueftsciatus pools (r = 0.75), but not Ae. albopictus pools (r = 0.55). Both species (collections and pools) and blue jays were weakly correlated (r 5 0.41) with rainfall, but blue jays were better correlated with Cx. quinquefasciatus pools (r = 0.87), compared with Ae. albopictus pools (r = 0.67), Ae. albopictus collections (r = 0.69), and Cx. quinquefasciatus collections (r = 0.46). Peak minimum infection rate for Cx. quinquefasciatus (4.55), and Ae. albopictus (4.41) was in August with highest human cases (17.87), blue jays (55.58), and temperature (29.01 degrees C). Between both species, blood meal analysis indicated 68.18% of Cx. quinquefasciatus mammalian hosts were dog, while 22.72% were human, whereas Ae. albopictus had higher human (44.44%) but fewer dog hosts (22.22%). Ten bird species were identified as hosts for Cx. quinquefasciatus, with northern cardinal and blue jay representing 26.66% and 20.00%, respectively. No bird feeding activity was observed in Ae. albopictus. The earliest and latest human blood meal occurred in May (Ae. albopictus) and November (Cx. quinquefasciatus); 66.66% of human host identifications between both species occurred in October-November, after the seasonal human case peak. Based upon our data, WNV activity in both mosquito species warrants further investigation of their individual roles in WNV ecology within this region.

The role of birds in arboviral disease surveillance in Harris County and the City of Houston, Texas.

Avian arboviral surveillance is an integral part of any disease-based integrated mosquito control program. The Harris County Public Health Mosquito and Vector Control Division has performed arboviral surveillance in the wild birds of Harris County and the City of Houston since 1965. Blood samples from live trapped birds were tested for arboviral antibodies to West Nile virus (WNV), St. Louis encephalitis, Eastern equine encephalitis, and Western equine encephalitis. A dead bird surveillance program was created in 2002 with the arrival of WNV in Harris County. Since implementation, the program has detected considerable variability in viral activity with annual WNV seroprevelance rates ranging from 2.9% to 17.7%, while the percentage of positive dead birds has ranged from 0.3% to 57.2%. In 2015, 1,345 live birds were sampled and 253 dead birds were tested, with WNV incidence rates of 16.5% and 5.9%, respectively.