Diagnostic performance and prediction of clinical progression of plasma phospho-tau181 in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.

Whilst cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and positron emission tomography (PET) biomarkers for amyloid-ß (Aß) and tau pathologies are accurate for the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD), their broad implementation in clinical and trial settings are restricted by high cost and limited accessibility. Plasma phosphorylated-tau181 (p-tau181) is a promising blood-based biomarker that is specific for AD, correlates with cerebral Aß and tau pathology, and predicts future cognitive decline. In this study, we report the performance of p-tau181 in >1000 individuals from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), including cognitively unimpaired (CU), mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and AD dementia patients characterized by Aß PET. We confirmed that plasma p-tau181 is increased at the preclinical stage of Alzheimer and further increases in MCI and AD dementia. Individuals clinically classified as AD dementia but having negative Aß PET scans show little increase but plasma p-tau181 is increased if CSF Aß has already changed prior to Aß PET changes. Despite being a multicenter study, plasma p-tau181 demonstrated high diagnostic accuracy to identify AD dementia (AUC = 85.3%; 95% CI, 81.4-89.2%), as well as to distinguish between Aß- and Aß+ individuals along the Alzheimer's continuum (AUC = 76.9%; 95% CI, 74.0-79.8%). Higher baseline concentrations of plasma p-tau181 accurately predicted future dementia and performed comparably to the baseline prediction of CSF p-tau181. Longitudinal measurements of plasma p-tau181 revealed low intra-individual variability, which could be of potential benefit in disease-modifying trials seeking a measurable response to a therapeutic target. This study adds significant weight to the growing body of evidence in the use of plasma p-tau181 as a non-invasive diagnostic and prognostic tool for AD, regardless of clinical stage, which would be of great benefit in clinical practice and a large cost-saving in clinical trial recruitment.

Advancing Tau PET Quantification in Alzheimer Disease with Machine Learning: Introducing THETA, a Novel Tau Summary Measure.

Alzheimer disease (AD) exhibits spatially heterogeneous 3- or 4-repeat tau deposition across participants. Our overall goal was to develop an automated method to quantify the heterogeneous burden of tau deposition into a single number that would be clinically useful. Methods: We used tau PET scans from 3 independent cohorts: the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging and Alzheimer's Disease Research Center (Mayo, n = 1,290), the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI, n = 831), and the Open Access Series of Imaging Studies (OASIS-3, n = 430). A machine learning binary classification model was trained on Mayo data and validated on ADNI and OASIS-3 with the goal of predicting visual tau positivity (as determined by 3 raters following Food and Drug Administration criteria for 18F-flortaucipir). The machine learning model used region-specific SUV ratios scaled to cerebellar crus uptake. We estimated feature contributions based on an artificial intelligence-explainable method (Shapley additive explanations) and formulated a global tau summary measure, Tau Heterogeneity Evaluation in Alzheimer's Disease (THETA) score, using SUV ratios and Shapley additive explanations for each participant. We compared the performance of THETA with that of commonly used meta-regions of interest (ROIs) using the Mini-Mental State Examination, the Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes, clinical diagnosis, and histopathologic staging. Results: The model achieved a balanced accuracy of 95% on the Mayo test set and at least 87% on the validation sets. It classified tau-positive and -negative participants with an AUC of 1.00, 0.96, and 0.94 on the Mayo, ADNI, and OASIS-3 cohorts, respectively. Across all cohorts, THETA showed a better correlation with the Mini-Mental State Examination and the Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes (ρ ≥ 0.45, P < 0.05) than did meta-ROIs (ρ < 0.44, P < 0.05) and discriminated between participants who were cognitively unimpaired and those who had mild cognitive impairment with an effect size of 10.09, compared with an effect size of 3.08 for meta-ROIs. Conclusion: Our proposed approach identifies positive tau PET scans and provides a quantitative summary measure, THETA, that effectively captures heterogeneous tau deposition observed in AD. The application of THETA for quantifying tau PET in AD exhibits great potential.

Advancing Tau-PET quantification in Alzheimer's disease with machine learning: introducing THETA, a novel tau summary measure.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) exhibits spatially heterogeneous 3R/4R tau pathology distributions across participants, making it a challenge to quantify extent of tau deposition. Utilizing Tau-PET from three independent cohorts, we trained and validated a machine learning model to identify visually positive Tau-PET scans from regional SUVR values and developed a novel summary measure, THETA, that accounts for heterogeneity in tau deposition. The model for identification of tau positivity achieved a balanced test accuracy of 95% and accuracy of ≥87% on the validation datasets. THETA captured heterogeneity of tau deposition, had better association with clinical measures, and corresponded better with visual assessments in comparison with the temporal meta-region-of-interest Tau-PET quantification methods. Our novel approach aids in identification of positive Tau-PET scans and provides a quantitative summary measure, THETA, that effectively captures the heterogeneous tau deposition seen in AD. The application of THETA for quantifying Tau-PET in AD exhibits great potential.