Transporter Proteins as Ecological Assets and Features of Microbial Eukaryotic Pangenomes.

Here we review two connected themes in evolutionary microbiology: (a) the nature of gene repertoire variation within species groups (pangenomes) and (b) the concept of metabolite transporters as accessory proteins capable of providing niche-defining "bolt-on" phenotypes. We discuss the need for improved sampling and understanding of pangenome variation in eukaryotic microbes. We then review the factors that shape the repertoire of accessory genes within pangenomes. As part of this discussion, we outline how gene duplication is a key factor in both eukaryotic pangenome variation and transporter gene family evolution. We go on to outline how, through functional characterization of transporter-encoding genes, in combination with analyses of how transporter genes are gained and lost from accessory genomes, we can reveal much about the niche range, the ecology, and the evolution of virulence of microbes. We advocate for the coordinated systematic study of eukaryotic pangenomes through genome sequencing and the functional analysis of genes found within the accessory gene repertoire.

Shuffled ATG8 interacting motifs form an ancestral bridge between UFMylation and autophagy.

UFMylation involves the covalent modification of substrate proteins with UFM1 (Ubiquitin-fold modifier 1) and is important for maintaining ER homeostasis. Stalled translation triggers the UFMylation of ER-bound ribosomes and activates C53-mediated autophagy to clear toxic polypeptides. C53 contains noncanonical shuffled ATG8-interacting motifs (sAIMs) that are essential for ATG8 interaction and autophagy initiation. However, the mechanistic basis of sAIM-mediated ATG8 interaction remains unknown. Here, we show that C53 and sAIMs are conserved across eukaryotes but secondarily lost in fungi and various algal lineages. Biochemical assays showed that the unicellular alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii has a functional UFMylation pathway, refuting the assumption that UFMylation is linked to multicellularity. Comparative structural analyses revealed that both UFM1 and ATG8 bind sAIMs in C53, but in a distinct way. Conversion of sAIMs into canonical AIMs impaired binding of C53 to UFM1, while strengthening ATG8 binding. Increased ATG8 binding led to the autoactivation of the C53 pathway and sensitization of Arabidopsis thaliana to ER stress. Altogether, our findings reveal an ancestral role of sAIMs in UFMylation-dependent fine-tuning of C53-mediated autophagy activation.

Symbiosis: In search of a deeper understanding.

How do distinct species cofunction in symbiosis, despite conflicting interests? A new collection of articles explores emerging themes as researchers exploit modern research tools and new models to unravel how symbiotic interactions function and evolve.

Duplication and neofunctionalization of a horizontally transferred xyloglucanase as a facet of the Red Queen coevolutionary dynamic.

Oomycete protists share phenotypic similarities with fungi, including the ability to cause plant diseases, but branch in a distant region of the tree of life. It has been suggested that multiple horizontal gene transfers (HGTs) from fungi-to-oomycetes contributed to the evolution of plant-pathogenic traits. These HGTs are predicted to include secreted proteins that degrade plant cell walls, a barrier to pathogen invasion and a rich source of carbohydrates. Using a combination of phylogenomics and functional assays, we investigate the diversification of a horizontally transferred xyloglucanase gene family in the model oomycete species Phytophthora sojae. Our analyses detect 11 xyloglucanase paralogs retained in P. sojae. Using heterologous expression in yeast, we show consistent evidence that eight of these paralogs have xyloglucanase function, including variants with distinct protein characteristics, such as a long-disordered C-terminal extension that can increase xyloglucanase activity. The functional variants analyzed subtend a phylogenetic node close to the fungi-to-oomycete transfer, suggesting the horizontally transferred gene was a bona fide xyloglucanase. Expression of three xyloglucanase paralogs in Nicotiana benthamiana triggers high-reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation, while others inhibit ROS responses to bacterial immunogens, demonstrating that the paralogs differentially stimulate pattern-triggered immunity. Mass spectrometry of detectable enzymatic products demonstrates that some paralogs catalyze the production of variant breakdown profiles, suggesting that secretion of variant xyloglucanases increases efficiency of xyloglucan breakdown as well as diversifying the damage-associated molecular patterns released. We suggest that this pattern of neofunctionalization and the variant host responses represent an aspect of the Red Queen host-pathogen coevolutionary dynamic.

Systematic comparison of unilamellar vesicles reveals that archaeal core lipid membranes are more permeable than bacterial membranes.

One of the deepest branches in the tree of life separates the Archaea from the Bacteria. These prokaryotic groups have distinct cellular systems including fundamentally different phospholipid membrane bilayers. This dichotomy has been termed the lipid divide and possibly bestows different biophysical and biochemical characteristics on each cell type. Classic experiments suggest that bacterial membranes (formed from lipids extracted from Escherichia coli, for example) show permeability to key metabolites comparable to archaeal membranes (formed from lipids extracted from Halobacterium salinarum), yet systematic analyses based on direct measurements of membrane permeability are absent. Here, we develop a new approach for assessing the membrane permeability of approximately 10 µm unilamellar vesicles, consisting of an aqueous medium enclosed by a single lipid bilayer. Comparing the permeability of 18 metabolites demonstrates that diether glycerol-1-phosphate lipids with methyl branches, often the most abundant membrane lipids of sampled archaea, are permeable to a wide range of compounds useful for core metabolic networks, including amino acids, sugars, and nucleobases. Permeability is significantly lower in diester glycerol-3-phosphate lipids without methyl branches, the common building block of bacterial membranes. To identify the membrane characteristics that determine permeability, we use this experimental platform to test a variety of lipid forms bearing a diversity of intermediate characteristics. We found that increased membrane permeability is dependent on both the methyl branches on the lipid tails and the ether bond between the tails and the head group, both of which are present on the archaeal phospholipids. These permeability differences must have had profound effects on the cell physiology and proteome evolution of early prokaryotic forms. To explore this further, we compare the abundance and distribution of transmembrane transporter-encoding protein families present on genomes sampled from across the prokaryotic tree of life. These data demonstrate that archaea tend to have a reduced repertoire of transporter gene families, consistent with increased membrane permeation. These results demonstrate that the lipid divide demarcates a clear difference in permeability function with implications for understanding some of the earliest transitions in cell origins and evolution.

Identification of a non-canonical ciliate nuclear genetic code where UAA and UAG code for different amino acids.

The genetic code is one of the most highly conserved features across life. Only a few lineages have deviated from the "universal" genetic code. Amongst the few variants of the genetic code reported to date, the codons UAA and UAG virtually always have the same translation, suggesting that their evolution is coupled. Here, we report the genome and transcriptome sequencing of a novel uncultured ciliate, belonging to the Oligohymenophorea class, where the translation of the UAA and UAG stop codons have changed to specify different amino acids. Genomic and transcriptomic analyses revealed that UAA has been reassigned to encode lysine, while UAG has been reassigned to encode glutamic acid. We identified multiple suppressor tRNA genes with anticodons complementary to the reassigned codons. We show that the retained UGA stop codon is enriched in the 3'UTR immediately downstream of the coding region of genes, suggesting that there is functional drive to maintain tandem stop codons. Using a phylogenomics approach, we reconstructed the ciliate phylogeny and mapped genetic code changes, highlighting the remarkable number of independent genetic code changes within the Ciliophora group of protists. According to our knowledge, this is the first report of a genetic code variant where UAA and UAG encode different amino acids.

A functional bacteria-derived restriction modification system in the mitochondrion of a heterotrophic protist.

The overarching trend in mitochondrial genome evolution is functional streamlining coupled with gene loss. Therefore, gene acquisition by mitochondria is considered to be exceedingly rare. Selfish elements in the form of self-splicing introns occur in many organellar genomes, but the wider diversity of selfish elements, and how they persist in the DNA of organelles, has not been explored. In the mitochondrial genome of a marine heterotrophic katablepharid protist, we identify a functional type II restriction modification (RM) system originating from a horizontal gene transfer (HGT) event involving bacteria related to flavobacteria. This RM system consists of an HpaII-like endonuclease and a cognate cytosine methyltransferase (CM). We demonstrate that these proteins are functional by heterologous expression in both bacterial and eukaryotic cells. These results suggest that a mitochondrion-encoded RM system can function as a toxin-antitoxin selfish element, and that such elements could be co-opted by eukaryotic genomes to drive biased organellar inheritance.

Emergent RNA-RNA interactions can promote stability in a facultative phototrophic endosymbiosis.

Eukaryote-eukaryote endosymbiosis was responsible for the spread of chloroplast (plastid) organelles. Stability is required for the metabolic and genetic integration that drives the establishment of new organelles, yet the mechanisms that act to stabilize emergent endosymbioses-between two fundamentally selfish biological organisms-are unclear. Theory suggests that enforcement mechanisms, which punish misbehavior, may act to stabilize such interactions by resolving conflict. However, how such mechanisms can emerge in a facultative endosymbiosis has yet to be explored. Here, we propose that endosymbiont-host RNA-RNA interactions, arising from digestion of the endosymbiont population, can result in a cost to host growth for breakdown of the endosymbiosis. Using the model facultative endosymbiosis between Paramecium bursaria and Chlorella spp., we demonstrate that this mechanism is dependent on the host RNA-interference (RNAi) system. We reveal through small RNA (sRNA) sequencing that endosymbiont-derived messenger RNA (mRNA) released upon endosymbiont digestion can be processed by the host RNAi system into 23-nt sRNA. We predict multiple regions of shared sequence identity between endosymbiont and host mRNA, and demonstrate through delivery of synthetic endosymbiont sRNA that exposure to these regions can knock down expression of complementary host genes, resulting in a cost to host growth. This process of host gene knockdown in response to endosymbiont-derived RNA processing by host RNAi factors, which we term "RNAi collisions," represents a mechanism that can promote stability in a facultative eukaryote-eukaryote endosymbiosis. Specifically, by imposing a cost for breakdown of the endosymbiosis, endosymbiont-host RNA-RNA interactions may drive maintenance of the symbiosis across fluctuating ecological conditions.

Preventive Service Usage and New Chronic Disease Diagnoses: Using PCORnet Data to Identify Emerging Trends, United States, 2018-2022.

Background: Data modernization efforts to strengthen surveillance capacity could help assess trends in use of preventive services and diagnoses of new chronic disease during the COVID-19 pandemic, which broadly disrupted health care access. Methods: This cross-sectional study examined electronic health record data from US adults aged 21 to 79 years in a large national research network (PCORnet), to describe use of 8 preventive health services (N = 30,783,825 patients) and new diagnoses of 9 chronic diseases (N = 31,588,222 patients) during 2018 through 2022. Joinpoint regression assessed significant trends, and health debt was calculated comparing 2020 through 2022 volume to prepandemic (2018 and 2019) levels. Results: From 2018 to 2022, use of some preventive services increased (hemoglobin A1c and lung computed tomography, both P < .05), others remained consistent (lipid testing, wellness visits, mammograms, Papanicolaou tests or human papillomavirus tests, stool-based screening), and colonoscopies or sigmoidoscopies declined (P < .01). Annual new chronic disease diagnoses were mostly stable (6% hypertension; 4% to 5% cholesterol; 4% diabetes; 1% colonic adenoma; 0.1% colorectal cancer; among women, 0.5% breast cancer), although some declined (lung cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or carcinoma in situ, cervical cancer, all P < .05). The pandemic resulted in health debt, because use of most preventive services and new diagnoses of chronic disease were less than expected during 2020; these partially rebounded in subsequent years. Colorectal screening and colonic adenoma detection by age group aligned with screening recommendation age changes during this period. Conclusion: Among over 30 million patients receiving care during 2018 through 2022, use of preventive services and new diagnoses of chronic disease declined in 2020 and then rebounded, with some remaining health debt. These data highlight opportunities to augment traditional surveillance with EHR-based data.

The cost burden of metastatic prostate cancer in the US populations covered by employer-sponsored health insurance.

BACKGROUND: Recent advancements in the clinical management of metastatic prostate cancer include several costly therapies and diagnostic tests. The objective of this study was to provide updated information on the cost to payers attributable to metastatic prostate cancer among men aged 18 to 64 years with employer-sponsored health plans and men aged 18 years or older covered by employer-sponsored Medicare supplement insurance. METHODS: By using Merative MarketScan commercial and Medicare supplemental data for 2009-2019, the authors calculated differences in spending between men with metastatic prostate cancer and their matched, prostate cancer-free controls, adjusting for age, enrollment length, comorbidities, and inflation to 2019 US dollars. RESULTS: The authors compared 9011 patients who had metastatic prostate cancer and were covered by commercial insurance plans with a group of 44,934 matched controls and also compared 17,899 patients who had metastatic prostate cancer and were covered by employer-sponsored Medicare supplement plans with a group of 87,884 matched controls. The mean age of patients with metastatic prostate cancer was 58.5 years in the commercial samples and 77.8 years in the Medicare supplement samples. Annual spending attributable to metastatic prostate cancer was $55,949 per person-year (95% confidence interval [CI], $54,074-$57,825 per person-year) in the commercial population and $43,682 per person-year (95% CI, $42,022-$45,342 per person-year) in the population covered by Medicare supplement plans, both in 2019 US dollars. CONCLUSIONS: The cost burden attributable to metastatic prostate cancer exceeds $55,000 per person-year among men with employer-sponsored health insurance and $43,000 among those covered by employer-sponsored Medicare supplement plans. These estimates can improve the precision of value assessments of clinical and policy approaches to the prevention, screening, and treatment of prostate cancer in the United States.

Moving beyond heritability in the search for coral adaptive potential.

Global environmental change is happening at unprecedented rates. Coral reefs are among the ecosystems most threatened by global change. For wild populations to persist, they must adapt. Knowledge shortfalls about corals' complex ecological and evolutionary dynamics, however, stymie predictions about potential adaptation to future conditions. Here, we review adaptation through the lens of quantitative genetics. We argue that coral adaptation studies can benefit greatly from "wild" quantitative genetic methods, where traits are studied in wild populations undergoing natural selection, genomic relationship matrices can replace breeding experiments, and analyses can be extended to examine genetic constraints among traits. In addition, individuals with advantageous genotypes for anticipated future conditions can be identified. Finally, genomic genotyping supports simultaneous consideration of how genetic diversity is arrayed across geographic and environmental distances, providing greater context for predictions of phenotypic evolution at a metapopulation scale.

Human papilloma virus vaccination and cervical cancer screening coverage in managed care plans - United States, 2018.

Human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination for adolescents aged 11-12 years and cervical cancer screening for women aged 21-65 years are recommended to help prevent cervical cancer. The purpose of this study was to describe 2018 National Committee for Quality Assurance (NCQA) Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set (HEDIS®) data for the United States on HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening from 275 commercial preferred provider organizations (PPOs), 219 commercial health maintenance organizations (HMOs), and 204 Medicaid HMOs. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and NCQA analyzed the data in 2021. The HEDIS® measure for HPV vaccination was the percentage of male and female adolescents aged 13 years who completed HPV immunization (2- or 3-dose series) on or before their 13th birthday. The measure for cervical cancer screening was the percentage of women screened either with cervical cytology within the last 3 years for women aged 21-64 years or with cervical cytology/HPV co-testing within the last 5 years for women aged 30-64 years. Nationally, the mean rate for HPV vaccination in 2018 was 37.8% in Medicaid HMOs, 30.3% in commercial HMOs, and 24.9% in commercial PPOs. The mean rate for cervical cancer screening was 75.9% in commercial HMOs, 72.6% in commercial PPOs, and 60.3% among Medicaid HMOs. Medicaid HMOs reported higher HPV vaccination rates but lower cervical cancer screening rates than commercial plans. These differences raise questions about explanatory factors and how to improve prevention performance by plan category.

Environment-dependent fitness gains can be driven by horizontal gene transfer of transporter-encoding genes.

Many microbes acquire metabolites in a "feeding" process where complex polymers are broken down in the environment to their subunits. The subsequent uptake of soluble metabolites by a cell, sometimes called osmotrophy, is facilitated by transporter proteins. As such, the diversification of osmotrophic microorganisms is closely tied to the diversification of transporter functions. Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) has been suggested to produce genetic variation that can lead to adaptation, allowing lineages to acquire traits and expand niche ranges. Transporter genes often encode single-gene phenotypes and tend to have low protein-protein interaction complexity and, as such, are potential candidates for HGT. Here we test the idea that HGT has underpinned the expansion of metabolic potential and substrate utilization via transfer of transporter-encoding genes. Using phylogenomics, we identify seven cases of transporter-gene HGT between fungal phyla, and investigate compatibility, localization, function, and fitness consequences when these genes are expressed in Saccharomyces cerevisiae Using this approach, we demonstrate that the transporters identified can alter how fungi utilize a range of metabolites, including peptides, polyols, and sugars. We then show, for one model gene, that transporter gene acquisition by HGT can significantly alter the fitness landscape of S. cerevisiae We therefore provide evidence that transporter HGT occurs between fungi, alters how fungi can acquire metabolites, and can drive gain in fitness. We propose a "transporter-gene acquisition ratchet," where transporter repertoires are continually augmented by duplication, HGT, and differential loss, collectively acting to overwrite, fine-tune, and diversify the complement of transporters present in a genome.

A distinct lineage of giant viruses brings a rhodopsin photosystem to unicellular marine predators.

Giant viruses are remarkable for their large genomes, often rivaling those of small bacteria, and for having genes thought exclusive to cellular life. Most isolated to date infect nonmarine protists, leaving their strategies and prevalence in marine environments largely unknown. Using eukaryotic single-cell metagenomics in the Pacific, we discovered a Mimiviridae lineage of giant viruses, which infects choanoflagellates, widespread protistan predators related to metazoans. The ChoanoVirus genomes are the largest yet from pelagic ecosystems, with 442 of 862 predicted proteins lacking known homologs. They are enriched in enzymes for modifying organic compounds, including degradation of chitin, an abundant polysaccharide in oceans, and they encode 3 divergent type-1 rhodopsins (VirR) with distinct evolutionary histories from those that capture sunlight in cellular organisms. One (VirRDTS) is similar to the only other putative rhodopsin from a virus (PgV) with a known host (a marine alga). Unlike the algal virus, ChoanoViruses encode the entire pigment biosynthesis pathway and cleavage enzyme for producing the required chromophore, retinal. We demonstrate that the rhodopsin shared by ChoanoViruses and PgV binds retinal and pumps protons. Moreover, our 1.65-Å resolved VirRDTS crystal structure and mutational analyses exposed differences from previously characterized type-1 rhodopsins, all of which come from cellular organisms. Multiple VirR types are present in metagenomes from across surface oceans, where they are correlated with and nearly as abundant as a canonical marker gene from Mimiviridae Our findings indicate that light-dependent energy transfer systems are likely common components of giant viruses of photosynthetic and phagotrophic unicellular marine eukaryotes.

The use of electronic health records to inform cancer surveillance efforts: a scoping review and test of indicators for public health surveillance of cancer prevention and control.

INTRODUCTION: State cancer prevention and control programs rely on public health surveillance data to set objectives to improve cancer prevention and control, plan interventions, and evaluate state-level progress towards achieving those objectives. The goal of this project was to evaluate the validity of using electronic health records (EHRs) based on common data model variables to generate indicators for surveillance of cancer prevention and control for these public health programs. METHODS: Following the methodological guidance from the PRISMA Extension for Scoping Reviews, we conducted a literature scoping review to assess how EHRs are used to inform cancer surveillance. We then developed 26 indicators along the continuum of the cascade of care, including cancer risk factors, immunizations to prevent cancer, cancer screenings, quality of initial care after abnormal screening results, and cancer burden. Indicators were calculated within a sample of patients from the New York City (NYC) INSIGHT Clinical Research Network using common data model EHR data and were weighted to the NYC population using post-stratification. We used prevalence ratios to compare these estimates to estimates from the raw EHR of NYU Langone Health to assess quality of information within INSIGHT, and we compared estimates to results from existing surveillance sources to assess validity. RESULTS: Of the 401 identified articles, 15% had a study purpose related to surveillance. Our indicator comparisons found that INSIGHT EHR-based measures for risk factor indicators were similar to estimates from external sources. In contrast, cancer screening and vaccination indicators were substantially underestimated as compared to estimates from external sources. Cancer screenings and vaccinations were often recorded in sections of the EHR that were not captured by the common data model. INSIGHT estimates for many quality-of-care indicators were higher than those calculated using a raw EHR. CONCLUSION: Common data model EHR data can provide rich information for certain indicators related to the cascade of care but may have substantial biases for others that limit their use in informing surveillance efforts for cancer prevention and control programs.

Single-cell genomics unveils a canonical origin of the diverse mitochondrial genomes of euglenozoans.

BACKGROUND: The supergroup Euglenozoa unites heterotrophic flagellates from three major clades, kinetoplastids, diplonemids, and euglenids, each of which exhibits extremely divergent mitochondrial characteristics. Mitochondrial genomes (mtDNAs) of euglenids comprise multiple linear chromosomes carrying single genes, whereas mitochondrial chromosomes are circular non-catenated in diplonemids, but circular and catenated in kinetoplastids. In diplonemids and kinetoplastids, mitochondrial mRNAs require extensive and diverse editing and/or trans-splicing to produce mature transcripts. All known euglenozoan mtDNAs exhibit extremely short mitochondrial small (rns) and large (rnl) subunit rRNA genes, and absence of tRNA genes. How these features evolved from an ancestral bacteria-like circular mitochondrial genome remains unanswered. RESULTS: We sequenced and assembled 20 euglenozoan single-cell amplified genomes (SAGs). In our phylogenetic and phylogenomic analyses, three SAGs were placed within kinetoplastids, 14 within diplonemids, one (EU2) within euglenids, and two SAGs with nearly identical small subunit rRNA gene (18S) sequences (EU17/18) branched as either a basal lineage of euglenids, or as a sister to all euglenozoans. Near-complete mitochondrial genomes were identified in EU2 and EU17/18. Surprisingly, both EU2 and EU17/18 mitochondrial contigs contained multiple genes and one tRNA gene. Furthermore, EU17/18 mtDNA possessed several features unique among euglenozoans including full-length rns and rnl genes, six mitoribosomal genes, and nad11, all likely on a single chromosome. CONCLUSIONS: Our data strongly suggest that EU17/18 is an early-branching euglenozoan with numerous ancestral mitochondrial features. Collectively these data contribute to untangling the early evolution of euglenozoan mitochondria.

The genetic basis of adaptation in phenology in an introduced population of Black Cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa, Torr. & Gray).

BACKGROUND: Entering and exiting winter dormancy present important trade-offs between growth and survival at northern latitudes. Many forest trees display local adaptation across latitude in traits associated with these phenology transitions. Transfers of a species outside its native range introduce the species to novel combinations of environmental conditions potentially requiring different combinations of alleles to optimize growth and survival. In this study, we performed genome wide association analyses and a selection scan in a P. trichocarpa mapping population derived from crossings between clones collected across the native range and introduced into Sweden. GWAS analyses were performed using phenotypic data collected across two field seasons and in a controlled phytotron experiment. RESULTS: We uncovered 584 putative candidate genes associated with spring and autumn phenology traits as well as with growth. Many regions harboring variation significantly associated with the initiation of leaf shed and leaf autumn coloring appeared to have been evolving under positive selection in the native environments of P. trichocarpa. A comparison between the candidate genes identified with results from earlier GWAS analyses performed in the native environment found a smaller overlap for spring phenology traits than for autumn phenology traits, aligning well with earlier observations that spring phenology transitions have a more complex genetic basis than autumn phenology transitions. CONCLUSIONS: In a small and structured introduced population of P. trichocarpa, we find complex genetic architectures underlying all phenology and growth traits, and identify multiple putative candidate genes despite the limitations of the study population.

Expanded host and geographic range of tadpole associations with the Severe Perkinsea Infection group.

Severe Perkinsea infection is an emerging disease of amphibians, specifically tadpoles. Disease presentation correlates with liver infections of a subclade of Perkinsea (Alveolata) protists, named Pathogenic Perkinsea Clade (PPC). Tadpole mortality events associated with PPC infections have been reported across North America, from Alaska to Florida. Here, we investigate the geographic and host range of PPC associations in seemingly healthy tadpoles sampled from Panama, a biogeographic provenance critically affected by amphibian decline. To complement this work, we also investigate a mortality event among Hyla arborea tadpoles in captive-bred UK specimens. PPC SSU rDNA was detected in 10 of 81 Panama tadpoles tested, and H. arborea tadpoles from the UK. Phylogenies of the Perkinsea SSU rDNA sequences demonstrate they are highly similar to PPC sequences sampled from mortality events in the USA, and phylogenetic analysis of tadpole mitochondrial SSU rDNA demonstrates, for the first time, PPC associations in diverse hylids. These data provide further understanding of the biogeography and host range of this putative pathogenic group, factors likely to be important for conservation planning.

The Impact of Various Risk Assessment Time Frames on the Performance of Opioid Overdose Forecasting Models.

BACKGROUND: An individual's risk for future opioid overdoses is usually assessed using a 12-month "lookback" period. Given the potential urgency of acting rapidly, we compared the performance of alternative predictive models with risk information from the past 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. METHODS: We included 1,014,033 Maryland residents aged 18-80 with at least 1 opioid prescription and no recorded death in 2015. We used 2015 Maryland prescription drug monitoring data to identify risk factors for nonfatal opioid overdoses from hospital discharge records and investigated fatal opioid overdose from medical examiner data in 2016. Prescription drug monitoring program-derived predictors included demographics, payment sources for opioid prescriptions, count of unique opioid prescribers and pharmacies, and quantity and types of opioids and benzodiazepines filled. We estimated a series of logistic regression models that included 3, 6, 9, and 12 months of prescription drug monitoring program data and compared model performance, using bootstrapped C-statistics and associated 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: For hospital-treated nonfatal overdose, the C-statistic increased from 0.73 for a model including only the fourth quarter to 0.77 for a model with 4 quarters of data. For fatal overdose, the area under the curve increased from 0.80 to 0.83 over the same models. The strongest predictors of overdose were prescription fills for buprenorphine and Medicaid and Medicare as sources of payment. CONCLUSIONS: Models predicting opioid overdose using 1 quarter of data were nearly as accurate as models using all 4 quarters. Models with a single quarter may be more timely and easier to identify persons at risk of an opioid overdose.

Quantitative genetic architecture of adaptive phenology traits in the deciduous tree, Populus trichocarpa (Torr. and Gray).

In a warming climate, the ability to accurately predict and track shifting environmental conditions will be fundamental for plant survival. Environmental cues define the transitions between growth and dormancy as plants synchronise development with favourable environmental conditions, however these cues are predicted to change under future climate projections which may have profound impacts on tree survival and growth. Here, we use a quantitative genetic approach to estimate the genetic basis of spring and autumn phenology in Populus trichocarpa to determine this species capacity for climate adaptation. We measured bud burst, leaf coloration, and leaf senescence traits across two years (2017-2018) and combine these observations with measures of lifetime growth to determine how genetic correlations between phenology and growth may facilitate or constrain adaptation. Timing of transitions differed between years, although we found strong cross year genetic correlations in all traits, suggesting that genotypes respond in consistent ways to seasonal cues. Spring and autumn phenology were correlated with lifetime growth, where genotypes that burst leaves early and shed them late had the highest lifetime growth. We also identified substantial heritable variation in the timing of all phenological transitions (h2 = 0.5-0.8) and in lifetime growth (h2 = 0.8). The combination of additive variation and favourable genetic correlations in phenology traits suggests that populations of cultivated varieties of P. Trichocarpa may have the capability to adapt their phenology to climatic changes without negative impacts on growth.