Incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in individuals with a family history of colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Little is known about the change in risk conferred by family history of colorectal cancer (CRC) as a person ages. We evaluated the effect of family history on CRC incidence and mortality after 55 years of age, when the risk of early onset cancer had passed. METHODS: We collected data from participants in the randomized, controlled Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian cancer screening trial of flexible sigmoidoscopy versus usual care (55-74 years old, no history of CRC), performed at 10 US centers from 1993 to 2001. A detailed family history of colorectal cancer was obtained at enrollment, and subjects were followed for CRC incidence and mortality for up to 13 years. RESULTS: Among 144,768 participants, 14,961 subjects (10.3%) reported a family of CRC. Of 2090 incident cases, 273 cases (13.1%) had a family history of CRC; among 538 deaths from CRC, 71 (13.2%) had a family history of CRC. Overall, family history of CRC was associated with an increased risk of CRC incidence (hazard ratio [HR], 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-1.50; P<.0001) and increased mortality (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.02-1.69; P = .03). Subjects with 1 first degree relative (FDR) with CRC (n = 238; HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.07-1.42) or ≥2 FDRs with CRC (n = 35; HR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.44-2.86) were at increased risk for incident CRC. However, among individuals with 1 FDR with CRC, there were no differences in risk based on age at diagnosis in the FDR (for FDR <60 years of age: HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 0.97-1.63; for FDR 60-70 years of age: HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.06-1.62; for FDR >70 years of age: HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.93-1.45; P trend = .59). CONCLUSIONS: After 55 years of age, subjects with 1 FDR with CRC had only a modest increase in risk for CRC incidence and death; age of onset in the FDR was not significantly associated with risk. Individuals with ≥2 FDRs with CRC had continued increased risk in older age. Guidelines and clinical practice for subjects with a family history of CRC should be modified to align CRC testing to risk. ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00002540.

Colorectal-cancer incidence and mortality with screening flexible sigmoidoscopy.

BACKGROUND: The benefits of endoscopic testing for colorectal-cancer screening are uncertain. We evaluated the effect of screening with flexible sigmoidoscopy on colorectal-cancer incidence and mortality. METHODS: From 1993 through 2001, we randomly assigned 154,900 men and women 55 to 74 years of age either to screening with flexible sigmoidoscopy, with a repeat screening at 3 or 5 years, or to usual care. Cases of colorectal cancer and deaths from the disease were ascertained. RESULTS: Of the 77,445 participants randomly assigned to screening (intervention group), 83.5% underwent baseline flexible sigmoidoscopy and 54.0% were screened at 3 or 5 years. The incidence of colorectal cancer after a median follow-up of 11.9 years was 11.9 cases per 10,000 person-years in the intervention group (1012 cases), as compared with 15.2 cases per 10,000 person-years in the usual-care group (1287 cases), which represents a 21% reduction (relative risk, 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72 to 0.85; P<0.001). Significant reductions were observed in the incidence of both distal colorectal cancer (479 cases in the intervention group vs. 669 cases in the usual-care group; relative risk, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.80; P<0.001) and proximal colorectal cancer (512 cases vs. 595 cases; relative risk, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.97; P=0.01). There were 2.9 deaths from colorectal cancer per 10,000 person-years in the intervention group (252 deaths), as compared with 3.9 per 10,000 person-years in the usual-care group (341 deaths), which represents a 26% reduction (relative risk, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.87; P<0.001). Mortality from distal colorectal cancer was reduced by 50% (87 deaths in the intervention group vs. 175 in the usual-care group; relative risk, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.64; P<0.001); mortality from proximal colorectal cancer was unaffected (143 and 147 deaths, respectively; relative risk, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.77 to 1.22; P=0.81). CONCLUSIONS: Screening with flexible sigmoidoscopy was associated with a significant decrease in colorectal-cancer incidence (in both the distal and proximal colon) and mortality (distal colon only). (Funded by the National Cancer Institute; PLCO ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00002540.).

Evaluation of the lung cancer risks at which to screen ever- and never-smokers: screening rules applied to the PLCO and NLST cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer risks at which individuals should be screened with computed tomography (CT) for lung cancer are undecided. This study's objectives are to identify a risk threshold for selecting individuals for screening, to compare its efficiency with the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) criteria for identifying screenees, and to determine whether never-smokers should be screened. Lung cancer risks are compared between smokers aged 55-64 and ≥ 65-80 y. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Applying the PLCO(m2012) model, a model based on 6-y lung cancer incidence, we identified the risk threshold above which National Lung Screening Trial (NLST, n = 53,452) CT arm lung cancer mortality rates were consistently lower than rates in the chest X-ray (CXR) arm. We evaluated the USPSTF and PLCO(m2012) risk criteria in intervention arm (CXR) smokers (n = 37,327) of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO). The numbers of smokers selected for screening, and the sensitivities, specificities, and positive predictive values (PPVs) for identifying lung cancers were assessed. A modified model (PLCOall2014) evaluated risks in never-smokers. At PLCO(m2012) risk ≥ 0.0151, the 65th percentile of risk, the NLST CT arm mortality rates are consistently below the CXR arm's rates. The number needed to screen to prevent one lung cancer death in the 65th to 100th percentile risk group is 255 (95% CI 143 to 1,184), and in the 30th to <65th percentile risk group is 963 (95% CI 291 to -754); the number needed to screen could not be estimated in the <30th percentile risk group because of absence of lung cancer deaths. When applied to PLCO intervention arm smokers, compared to the USPSTF criteria, the PLCO(m2012) risk ≥ 0.0151 threshold selected 8.8% fewer individuals for screening (p<0.001) but identified 12.4% more lung cancers (sensitivity 80.1% [95% CI 76.8%-83.0%] versus 71.2% [95% CI 67.6%-74.6%], p<0.001), had fewer false-positives (specificity 66.2% [95% CI 65.7%-66.7%] versus 62.7% [95% CI 62.2%-63.1%], p<0.001), and had higher PPV (4.2% [95% CI 3.9%-4.6%] versus 3.4% [95% CI 3.1%-3.7%], p<0.001). In total, 26% of individuals selected for screening based on USPSTF criteria had risks below the threshold PLCO(m2012) risk ≥ 0.0151. Of PLCO former smokers with quit time >15 y, 8.5% had PLCO(m2012) risk ≥ 0.0151. None of 65,711 PLCO never-smokers had PLCO(m2012) risk ≥ 0.0151. Risks and lung cancers were significantly greater in PLCO smokers aged ≥ 65-80 y than in those aged 55-64 y. This study omitted cost-effectiveness analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The USPSTF criteria for CT screening include some low-risk individuals and exclude some high-risk individuals. Use of the PLCO(m2012) risk ≥ 0.0151 criterion can improve screening efficiency. Currently, never-smokers should not be screened. Smokers aged ≥ 65-80 y are a high-risk group who may benefit from screening. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Modified Gleason grade of prostatic adenocarcinomas detected in the PLCO cancer screening trial.

PURPOSE: We determined the modified Gleason grade of prostatic adenocarcinomas detected in PLCO to assess grade distribution and compare modified Gleason grades of cancer detected in the intervention arm (organized annual screening) vs the control arm (opportunistic screening). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Modified Gleason grading was performed in 859 radical prostatectomy cases by a single urological pathologist. We compared the proportion of cases with high grade disease in the screened arm vs the control arm by logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: In the intervention arm a modified Gleason score of 5, 6, 7 (3+4), 7 (4+3), 8, 9 and 10 was assigned in 3.6%, 43.3%, 39%, 7.4%, 3.5%, 3.2% and 0.1% of cases, respectively. In the control arm a modified Gleason score of 5, 6, 7 (3+4), 7 (4+3), 8, 9 and 10 was assigned in 3.0%, 35.7%, 46.4%, 7.1%, 5.4%, 1.9% and 0.5% of cases, respectively, after correcting for high grade disease over sampling. A high grade modified Gleason score of 7 or greater was detected in 53% of cases in the intervention arm vs 61.3% in the control arm after correction (p=0.019). The median modified Gleason score was 7 (3+4) in each arm. CONCLUSIONS: A significant percent of cancers in each arm had a component of high grade disease. The modified Gleason grade of prostate cancers detected by organized annual screening was slightly lower than the modified grade of those detected by opportunistic screening. This is an expected consequence of more intensive screening.

Mortality results from a randomized prostate-cancer screening trial.

BACKGROUND: The effect of screening with prostate-specific-antigen (PSA) testing and digital rectal examination on the rate of death from prostate cancer is unknown. This is the first report from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial on prostate-cancer mortality. METHODS: From 1993 through 2001, we randomly assigned 76,693 men at 10 U.S. study centers to receive either annual screening (38,343 subjects) or usual care as the control (38,350 subjects). Men in the screening group were offered annual PSA testing for 6 years and digital rectal examination for 4 years. The subjects and health care providers received the results and decided on the type of follow-up evaluation. Usual care sometimes included screening, as some organizations have recommended. The numbers of all cancers and deaths and causes of death were ascertained. RESULTS: In the screening group, rates of compliance were 85% for PSA testing and 86% for digital rectal examination. Rates of screening in the control group increased from 40% in the first year to 52% in the sixth year for PSA testing and ranged from 41 to 46% for digital rectal examination. After 7 years of follow-up, the incidence of prostate cancer per 10,000 person-years was 116 (2820 cancers) in the screening group and 95 (2322 cancers) in the control group (rate ratio, 1.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16 to 1.29). The incidence of death per 10,000 person-years was 2.0 (50 deaths) in the screening group and 1.7 (44 deaths) in the control group (rate ratio, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.75 to 1.70). The data at 10 years were 67% complete and consistent with these overall findings. CONCLUSIONS: After 7 to 10 years of follow-up, the rate of death from prostate cancer was very low and did not differ significantly between the two study groups. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00002540.)

Longitudinal evaluation of CA-125 velocity and prediction of ovarian cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether CA-125 velocity is a statistically significant predictor of ovarian cancer and develop a classification rule to screen for ovarian cancer. METHODS: In the ovarian component of the PLCO cancer screening trial, 28,038 women aged 55-74 had at least two CA-125 screening tests. Ovarian cancer was diagnosed in 72 (0.26%) women. A multiple logistic regression model was developed to evaluate CA-125 velocity and other related covariates as predictors of ovarian cancer. Predictive accuracy was assessed by the concordance index and measures of discrimination and calibration while the fit of the model was assessed by the Hosmer and Lemeshow's goodness-of-fit χ(2)test. RESULTS: CA-125 velocity decreased as the number of CA-125 measurements increased but was unaffected by age at baseline screen and family history of ovarian cancer. The average velocity (19.749U/ml per month) of the cancer group was more than 500 times the average velocity (0.035U/ml per month) of the non-cancer group. CONCLUSION: Among six covariates used in the model, CA-125 velocity and time intervals between baseline and second to last screening test and between last two screening tests were statistically significant predictors of ovarian cancer. The chance of having ovarian cancer increased as velocity increased, and the chance decreased when the time intervals between baseline and the second to last screening test and between last two screening tests of an individual increased.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use and the risk of benign prostatic hyperplasia-related outcomes and nocturia in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial.

UNLABELLED: Study Type - Therapy (cohort) Level of Evidence 4. What's known on the subject? and What does the study add? Accumulating evidence suggests that inflammation may contribute to the development of BPH and LUTS. Therefore, it is plausible that anti-inflammatory agents, such as aspirin and other NSAIDs, may reduce the risk of BPH/LUTS, as was observed in a recent analysis of daily aspirin use and BPH/LUTS risk in the Olmsted County Study of Urinary Symptoms and Health Status in Men. The present study, conducted in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial, found no association for recent aspirin or ibuprofen use with the risk of BPH/LUTS. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use and the incidence of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH)-related outcomes and nocturia, a lower urinary tract symptom (LUTS) of BPH, in light of accumulating evidence suggesting a role for inflammation in BPH/LUTS development. PATIENTS AND METHODS: At baseline, participants in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial completed questions on recent, regular aspirin and ibuprofen use, BPH surgery, diagnosis of an enlarged prostate/BPH, and nocturia. Participants in the intervention arm also underwent a digital rectal examination (DRE), from which prostate dimensions were estimated, as well as a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test. Only participants in the intervention arm without BPH/LUTS at baseline were included in the analysis (n= 4771). • During follow-up, participants underwent annual DREs and PSA tests, provided annual information on finasteride use, and completed a supplemental questionnaire in 2006-2008 that included additional questions on diagnosis of an enlarged prostate/BPH and nocturia. • Information collected was used to investigate regular aspirin or ibuprofen use in relation to the incidence of six BPH/LUTS definitions: diagnosis of an enlarged prostate/BPH, nocturia (waking two or more times per night to urinate), finasteride use, any self-reported BPH/LUTS, prostate enlargement (estimated prostate volume ≥30 mL on any follow-up DRE) and elevation in PSA level (>1.4 ng/mL on any follow-up PSA test). RESULTS: Generally, null results were observed for any recent, regular aspirin or ibuprofen use (risk ratio = 0.92-1.21, P= 0.043-0.91) and frequency of use (risk ratios for one category increase in NSAID use = 0.98-1.11, P-trends = 0.10-0.99) with incident BPH/LUTS. CONCLUSION: The findings obtained in the present study do not support a protective role for recent NSAID use in BPH/LUTS development.

Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Second Primary Lung Cancer.

BACKGROUND: With advancing therapeutics, lung cancer (LC) survivors are rapidly increasing in number. Although mounting evidence suggests LC survivors have high risk of second primary lung cancer (SPLC), there is no validated prediction model available for clinical use to identify high-risk LC survivors for SPLC. METHODS: Using data from 6325 ever-smokers in the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) study diagnosed with initial primary lung cancer (IPLC) in 1993-2017, we developed a prediction model for 10-year SPLC risk after IPLC diagnosis using cause-specific Cox regression. We evaluated the model's clinical utility using decision curve analysis and externally validated it using 2 population-based data-Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) and National Lung Screening Trial (NLST)-that included 2963 and 2844 IPLC (101 and 93 SPLC cases), respectively. RESULTS: Over 14 063 person-years, 145 (2.3%) ever-smoking IPLC patients developed SPLC in MEC. Our prediction model demonstrated a high predictive accuracy (Brier score = 2.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.4 to 3.3) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristics [AUC] = 81.9%, 95% CI = 78.2% to 85.5%) based on bootstrap validation in MEC. Stratification by the estimated risk quartiles showed that the observed SPLC incidence was statistically significantly higher in the 4th vs 1st quartile (9.5% vs 0.2%; P < .001). Decision curve analysis indicated that in a wide range of 10-year risk thresholds from 1% to 20%, the model yielded a larger net-benefit vs hypothetical all-screening or no-screening scenarios. External validation using PLCO and NLST showed an AUC of 78.8% (95% CI = 74.6% to 82.9%) and 72.7% (95% CI = 67.7% to 77.7%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a SPLC prediction model based on large population-based cohorts. The proposed prediction model can help identify high-risk LC patients for SPLC and can be incorporated into clinical decision making for SPLC surveillance and screening.

Effect of screening on ovarian cancer mortality: the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Randomized Controlled Trial.

CONTEXT: Screening for ovarian cancer with cancer antigen 125 (CA-125) and transvaginal ultrasound has an unknown effect on mortality. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of screening for ovarian cancer on mortality in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Randomized controlled trial of 78,216 women aged 55 to 74 years assigned to undergo either annual screening (n = 39,105) or usual care (n = 39,111) at 10 screening centers across the United States between November 1993 and July 2001. Intervention The intervention group was offered annual screening with CA-125 for 6 years and transvaginal ultrasound for 4 years. Participants and their health care practitioners received the screening test results and managed evaluation of abnormal results. The usual care group was not offered annual screening with CA-125 for 6 years or transvaginal ultrasound but received their usual medical care. Participants were followed up for a maximum of 13 years (median [range], 12.4 years [10.9-13.0 years]) for cancer diagnoses and death until February 28, 2010. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality from ovarian cancer, including primary peritoneal and fallopian tube cancers. Secondary outcomes included ovarian cancer incidence and complications associated with screening examinations and diagnostic procedures. RESULTS: Ovarian cancer was diagnosed in 212 women (5.7 per 10,000 person-years) in the intervention group and 176 (4.7 per 10,000 person-years) in the usual care group (rate ratio [RR], 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.99-1.48). There were 118 deaths caused by ovarian cancer (3.1 per 10,000 person-years) in the intervention group and 100 deaths (2.6 per 10,000 person-years) in the usual care group (mortality RR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.82-1.71). Of 3285 women with false-positive results, 1080 underwent surgical follow-up; of whom, 163 women experienced at least 1 serious complication (15%). There were 2924 deaths due to other causes (excluding ovarian, colorectal, and lung cancer) (76.6 per 10,000 person-years) in the intervention group and 2914 deaths (76.2 per 10,000 person-years) in the usual care group (RR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.96-1.06). CONCLUSIONS: Among women in the general US population, simultaneous screening with CA-125 and transvaginal ultrasound compared with usual care did not reduce ovarian cancer mortality. Diagnostic evaluation following a false-positive screening test result was associated with complications. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00002540.

Screening by chest radiograph and lung cancer mortality: the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) randomized trial.

CONTEXT: The effect on mortality of screening for lung cancer with modern chest radiographs is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect on mortality of screening for lung cancer using radiographs in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Randomized controlled trial that involved 154,901 participants aged 55 through 74 years, 77,445 of whom were assigned to annual screenings and 77,456 to usual care at 1 of 10 screening centers across the United States between November 1993 and July 2001. The data from a subset of eligible participants for the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), which compared chest radiograph with spiral computed tomographic (CT) screening, were analyzed. INTERVENTION: Participants in the intervention group were offered annual posteroanterior view chest radiograph for 4 years. Diagnostic follow-up of positive screening results was determined by participants and their health care practitioners. Participants in the usual care group were offered no interventions and received their usual medical care. All diagnosed cancers, deaths, and causes of death were ascertained through the earlier of 13 years of follow-up or until December 31, 2009. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality from lung cancer. Secondary outcomes included lung cancer incidence, complications associated with diagnostic procedures, and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Screening adherence was 86.6% at baseline and 79% to 84% at years 1 through 3; the rate of screening use in the usual care group was 11%. Cumulative lung cancer incidence rates through 13 years of follow-up were 20.1 per 10,000 person-years in the intervention group and 19.2 per 10,000 person-years in the usual care group (rate ratio [RR]; 1.05, 95% CI, 0.98-1.12). A total of 1213 lung cancer deaths were observed in the intervention group compared with 1230 in usual care group through 13 years (mortality RR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.87-1.22). Stage and histology were similar between the 2 groups. The RR of mortality for the subset of participants eligible for the NLST, over the same 6-year follow-up period, was 0.94 (95% CI, 0.81-1.10). CONCLUSION: Annual screening with chest radiograph did not reduce lung cancer mortality compared with usual care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00002540.

Tobacco Smoking and Risk of Second Primary Lung Cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Lung cancer survivors are at high risk of developing a second primary lung cancer (SPLC). However, SPLC risk factors have not been established and the impact of tobacco smoking remains controversial. We examined the risk factors for SPLC across multiple epidemiologic cohorts and evaluated the impact of smoking cessation on reducing SPLC risk. METHODS: We analyzed data from 7059 participants in the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) diagnosed with an initial primary lung cancer (IPLC) between 1993 and 2017. Cause-specific proportional hazards models estimated SPLC risk. We conducted validation studies using the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (N = 3423 IPLC cases) and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (N = 4731 IPLC cases) cohorts and pooled the SPLC risk estimates using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Overall, 163 MEC cases (2.3%) developed SPLC. Smoking pack-years (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.18 per 10 pack-years, p < 0.001) and smoking intensity (HR = 1.30 per 10 cigarettes per day, p < 0.001) were significantly associated with increased SPLC risk. Individuals who met the 2013 U.S. Preventive Services Task Force's screening criteria at IPLC diagnosis also had an increased SPLC risk (HR = 1.92; p < 0.001). Validation studies with the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition revealed consistent results. Meta-analysis yielded pooled HRs of 1.16 per 10 pack-years (pmeta < 0.001), 1.25 per 10 cigarettes per day (pmeta < 0.001), and 1.99 (pmeta < 0.001) for meeting the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force's criteria. In MEC, smoking cessation after IPLC diagnosis was associated with an 83% reduction in SPLC risk (HR = 0.17; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco smoking is a risk factor for SPLC. Smoking cessation may reduce the risk of SPLC. Additional strategies for SPLC surveillance and screening are warranted.

Prevalence, incidence, and natural history of simple ovarian cysts among women >55 years old in a large cancer screening trial.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to measure the occurrence and natural history of simple ovarian cysts in a cohort of older women. STUDY DESIGN: Simple cysts were ascertained among a cohort of 15,735 women from the intervention arm of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial through 4 years of transvaginal ultrasound screening. RESULTS: Simple cysts were seen in 14% of women the first time that their ovaries were visualized. The 1-year incidence of new simple cysts was 8%. Among ovaries with 1 simple cyst at the first screen, 54% retained 1 simple cyst, and 32% had no cyst 1 year later. Simple cysts did not increase risk of subsequent invasive ovarian cancer. CONCLUSION: Simple ovarian cysts are fairly common among postmenopausal women, and most cysts appear stable or resolve by the next annual examination. These findings support recent recommendations to follow unilocular simple cysts in postmenopausal women without intervention.

Serum prostate-specific antigen hemodilution among obese men undergoing screening in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown an inverse relationship between prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration and body mass index (BMI). It has been recently proposed that this relationship may be explained by the larger plasma volume of obese men diluting a fixed amount of PSA (hemodilution effect). We examined this hypothesis in a cohort of men enrolled in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial. METHODS: Of 38,349 men ages 55 to 74 years randomized in PLCO to receive annual PSA and digital rectal examination screening, 28,380 had a baseline PSA, complete demographic information, and no prostate cancer diagnosis within 6 years from baseline. Self-reported height and weight were used to calculate BMI and to estimate plasma volume. PSA mass was estimated as PSA concentration times plasma volume. Multivariable linear regression models were used to investigate the relationship between PSA concentration, plasma volume, PSA mass, and BMI. RESULTS: PSA concentration significantly decreased with increasing BMI (P<0.001); mean PSA values were 1.27, 1.25, 1.18, and 1.07 ng/mL among normal (BMI, 18.5-25), overweight (BMI, 25-30), obese (BMI, 30-35), and morbidly obese (BMI, >35) men, respectively. However, plasma volume also increased with increasing BMI and PSA mass showed no association with BMI, with mean values of 3.78, 3.95, 3.97, and 3.82 microg across the four BMI categories (P=0.10). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms earlier findings that the inverse relationship between PSA concentration and BMI may be explained by a hemodilution effect. These findings could have implications for prostate cancer screening in large men.

Cumulative incidence of false-positive results in repeated, multimodal cancer screening.

PURPOSE: Multiple cancer screening tests have been advocated for the general population; however, clinicians and patients are not always well-informed of screening burdens. We sought to determine the cumulative risk of a false-positive screening result and the resulting risk of a diagnostic procedure for an individual participating in a multimodal cancer screening program. METHODS: Data were analyzed from the intervention arm of the ongoing Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial, a randomized controlled trial to determine the effects of prostate, lung, colorectal, and ovarian cancer screening on disease-specific mortality. The 68,436 participants, aged 55 to 74 years, were randomized to screening or usual care. Women received serial serum tests to detect cancer antigen 125 (CA-125), transvaginal sonograms, posteroanterior-view chest radiographs, and flexible sigmoidoscopies. Men received serial chest radiographs, flexible sigmoidoscopies, digital rectal examinations, and serum prostate-specific antigen tests. Fourteen screening examinations for each sex were possible during the 3-year screening period. RESULTS: After 14 tests, the cumulative risk of having at least 1 false-positive screening test is 60.4% (95% CI, 59.8%-61.0%) for men, and 48.8% (95% CI, 48.1%-49.4%) for women. The cumulative risk after 14 tests of undergoing an invasive diagnostic procedure prompted by a false-positive test is 28.5% (CI, 27.8%-29.3%) for men and 22.1% (95% CI, 21.4%-22.7%) for women. CONCLUSIONS: For an individual in a multimodal cancer screening trial, the risk of a false-positive finding is about 50% or greater by the 14th test. Physicians should educate patients about the likelihood of false positives and resulting diagnostic interventions when counseling about cancer screening.

The epidemiology of CA-125 in women without evidence of ovarian cancer in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer (PLCO) Screening Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the epidemiology of CA-125 in women without ovarian cancer. METHODS: We analyzed demographic, medical and lifestyle characteristics related to CA-125, measured using the Centocor CA-125II RIA assay, among 25,608 multi-ethnic U.S. women aged 55-74 years enrolled in a cancer screening trial and found to have no evidence of ovarian cancer. RESULTS: Mean CA-125 level was 11.9 U/ml (SD 8.3); median 10.0 U/ml, interquartile range 8.0-14.0. High levels, using the clinical cut point of >or=35 U/ml, were associated with increased age (p<0.001) and former smoking (p<0.021), while hysterectomy and obesity were protective (p<0.001). Mean levels were higher with increasing age (p<0.001), ever use of hormone therapy (p<0.001), former smoking (p<0.017) and history of breast cancer (p<0.002), but lower (p<0.001) with non-White status, previous hysterectomy, current smoking, and obesity. Current hormone therapy use was not associated with CA-125 in women without a uterus. CONCLUSION: In post-menopausal women without ovarian cancer, CA-125 level is influenced by a number of factors, including race/ethnicity, age, hysterectomy, smoking history and obesity.

Prostate cancer screening in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian cancer screening trial: update on findings from the initial four rounds of screening in a randomized trial.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the results of the first four rounds (T0-T3) of prostate cancer screening in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial (designed to determine the value of screening in the four cancers), that for prostate cancer is evaluating whether annual screening with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and a digital rectal examination (DRE) reduces prostate cancer-specific mortality. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: In all, 38 349 men aged 55-74 years were randomized to undergo annual screening with PSA (abnormal >4.0 ng/mL) and a DRE. The follow-up of abnormal screening results was at the discretion of subjects' physicians. PLCO staff obtained records related to diagnostic follow-up of positive screen results. RESULTS: Compliance with screening decreased slightly from 89% at baseline to 85% at T3. Both PSA positivity rates (range 7.7-8.8% at T0-T3) and DRE positivity rates (range 6.8-7.6% at T0-T3) were relatively constant over time. The positive predictive value (PPV) of a PSA level of >4.0 ng/mL decreased from 17.9% at T0 to 10.4-12.3% at T1-T3; the PPV for DRE (in the absence of a positive PSA test) was constant over time (2.9-3.6%). Cancer was diagnosed in 1902 men (4.9%). Screen-detected cancers at T0 (549) were more likely to be clinical stage III/IV (5.8%) and to have a Gleason score of 7-10 (34%) than screen-detected cancers at T1-T3 (1.5-4.2% stage III/IV and 24-27% Gleason score 7-10 among 1054 cases). CONCLUSION: The present findings on serial prostate screening are similar to those reported from other multi-round screening studies. Determining the effect of PSA screening on prostate cancer mortality awaits further follow-up.

Factors Associated With Small Aggressive Non-Small Cell Lung Cancers in the National Lung Screening Trial: A Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: A small proportion of non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLCs) have been observed to spread to distant lymph nodes (N3) or metastasize (M1) or both, while the primary tumor is small (≤3 cm, T1). These small aggressive NSCLCs (SA-NSLSC) are important as they are clinically significant, may identify unique biologic pathways, and warrant aggressive follow-up and treatment. This study identifies factors associated with SA-NSCLC and attempts to validate a previous finding that women with a family history of lung cancer are at particularly elevated risk of SA-NSCLC. METHODS: This study used a case-case design within the National Cancer Institute's National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) cohort. Case patients and "control" patients were selected based on TNM staging parameters. Case patients (n = 64) had T1 NSCLCs that were N3 or M1 or both, while "control" patients (n = 206) had T2 or T3, N0 to N2, and M0 NSCLCs. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression were used to identify factors associated with SA-NSCLC. RESULTS: In bootstrap bias-corrected multivariable logistic regression models, small aggressive adenocarcinomas were associated with a positive history of emphysema (odds ratio [OR] = 5.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.63 to 23.00) and the interaction of female sex and a positive family history of lung cancer (OR = 6.55, 95% CI = 1.06 to 50.80). CONCLUSIONS: Emphysema may play a role in early lung cancer progression. Females with a family history of lung cancer are at increased risk of having small aggressive lung adenocarcinomas. These results validate previous findings and encourage research on the role of female hormones interacting with family history and genetic factors in lung carcinogenesis and progression.

Factors associated with human small aggressive non small cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Some non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLC) progress to distant lymph nodes or metastasize while relatively small. Such small aggressive NSCLCs (SA-NSCLC) are no longer resectable with curative intent, carry a grave prognosis, and may involve unique biological pathways. This is a study of factors associated with SA-NSCLC. METHODS: A nested case-case study was embedded in the National Cancer Institute's Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. SA-NSCLC cases had stage T1, N3, and/or M1 NSCLC (n = 48) and non-SA-NSCLC cases had T2 to T3, N0 to N2, and M0 NSCLC (n = 329). Associations were assessed by multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: SA-NSCLCs were associated with younger age at diagnosis [odds ratio (OR)(>or=65 versus <65), 0.44; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.22-0.88], female gender, family history of lung cancer, and the interaction gender*family history of lung cancer and were inversely associated with ibuprofen use (OR(yes versus no), 0.29; 95% CI, 0.11-0.76). The ORs for associating gender (women versus men) with SA-NSCLC in those with and without a family history of lung cancer were 11.76 (95% CI, 2.00-69.22) and 1.86 (95% CI, 0.88-3.96), respectively. These associations held adjusted for histology and time from screening to diagnosis and when alternative controls were assessed. CONCLUSION: SA-NSCLC was associated with female gender, especially in those with a family history of lung cancer. If these exploratory findings, which are subject to bias, are validated as causal, elucidation of the genetic and female factors involved may improve understanding of cancer progression and lead to preventions and therapies. Ibuprofen may inhibit lung cancer progression.

Ovarian cancer screening in women with a family history of breast or ovarian cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate positive predictive values of CA 125 or transvaginal ultrasonography screening for ovarian cancer according to family history of breast or ovarian cancer. METHODS: In the screening arm of a randomized controlled trial of screening compared with usual care, 28,460 women with family history data received baseline and annual CA 125 and transvaginal ultrasonography examinations. We analyzed CA 125 and transvaginal ultrasonography results from the first four rounds of screening. We classified women as average (n=22,687), moderate (n=2,572), or high (n=2,163) risk based on family history, or high risk due to a personal history of breast cancer (n=1,038). Cancers were identified by active follow-up of women with abnormal screening results and annual questionnaires. We calculated positive predictive values for screening combinations. RESULTS: Similar proportions (4.8-5.0%) of women in each group had abnormal screening results. Higher-risk women were more likely than lower-risk women to undergo biopsy after a positive screen. Screening identified 43 invasive ovarian cancers. The positive predictive values for abnormal screening results were 0.7% in average-risk, 1.3% in moderate-risk, and 1.6% in high-risk groups; one ovarian cancer occurred among the breast cancer survivors. The positive predictive values for postbaseline abnormal screening results were also higher in the higher-risk groups. The positive predictive values did not significantly differ across risk groups. CONCLUSION: Probabilities of abnormal annual CA 125 and transvaginal ultrasonography screens were similar across groups based on family history of breast or ovarian cancer. However, ovarian cancer was more likely to be diagnosed after an abnormal screening result among women at higher family history-based risk than among women at lower risk. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: I.

Ovarian cancer screening in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial: findings from the initial screen of a randomized trial.

OBJECTIVE: Ovarian cancer screening with transvaginal ultrasound (TVU) and CA-125 was evaluated in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Trial. STUDY DESIGN: This was a randomized controlled trial of screening versus usual care. Baseline screening results are reported. RESULTS: Of 39,115 women randomized to receive screening, 28,816 received at least 1 test. Abnormal TVU was found in 1338 (4.7%), and abnormal CA-125 in 402 (1.4%). Twenty-nine neoplasms were identified (26 ovarian, 2 fallopian, and 1 primary peritoneal neoplasm). Nine were tumors of low malignant potential and 20 were invasive. The positive predictive value for invasive cancer was 3.7% for an abnormal CA-125, 1.0% for an abnormal TVU, and 23.5% if both tests were abnormal. CONCLUSION: The effect of screening on ovarian cancer mortality in the PLCO cohort has yet to be evaluated and will require longer follow-up. Screening identified both early- and late-stage neoplasms, and the predictive value of both tests was relatively low.