Predicting seasonal influenza using supermarket retail records.

Increased availability of epidemiological data, novel digital data streams, and the rise of powerful machine learning approaches have generated a surge of research activity on real-time epidemic forecast systems. In this paper, we propose the use of a novel data source, namely retail market data to improve seasonal influenza forecasting. Specifically, we consider supermarket retail data as a proxy signal for influenza, through the identification of sentinel baskets, i.e., products bought together by a population of selected customers. We develop a nowcasting and forecasting framework that provides estimates for influenza incidence in Italy up to 4 weeks ahead. We make use of the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to produce the predictions of seasonal flu incidence. Our predictions outperform both a baseline autoregressive model and a second baseline based on product purchases. The results show quantitatively the value of incorporating retail market data in forecasting models, acting as a proxy that can be used for the real-time analysis of epidemics.

Give more data, awareness and control to individual citizens, and they will help COVID-19 containment.

The rapid dynamics of COVID-19 calls for quick and effective tracking of virus transmission chains and early detection of outbreaks, especially in the "phase 2" of the pandemic, when lockdown and other restriction measures are progressively withdrawn, in order to avoid or minimize contagion resurgence. For this purpose, contact-tracing apps are being proposed for large scale adoption by many countries. A centralized approach, where data sensed by the app are all sent to a nation-wide server, raises concerns about citizens' privacy and needlessly strong digital surveillance, thus alerting us to the need to minimize personal data collection and avoiding location tracking. We advocate the conceptual advantage of a decentralized approach, where both contact and location data are collected exclusively in individual citizens' "personal data stores", to be shared separately and selectively (e.g., with a backend system, but possibly also with other citizens), voluntarily, only when the citizen has tested positive for COVID-19, and with a privacy preserving level of granularity. This approach better protects the personal sphere of citizens and affords multiple benefits: it allows for detailed information gathering for infected people in a privacy-preserving fashion; and, in turn this enables both contact tracing, and, the early detection of outbreak hotspots on more finely-granulated geographic scale. The decentralized approach is also scalable to large populations, in that only the data of positive patients need be handled at a central level. Our recommendation is two-fold. First to extend existing decentralized architectures with a light touch, in order to manage the collection of location data locally on the device, and allow the user to share spatio-temporal aggregates-if and when they want and for specific aims-with health authorities, for instance. Second, we favour a longer-term pursuit of realizing a Personal Data Store vision, giving users the opportunity to contribute to collective good in the measure they want, enhancing self-awareness, and cultivating collective efforts for rebuilding society.

Towards Transparent Healthcare: Advancing Local Explanation Methods in Explainable Artificial Intelligence.

This paper focuses on the use of local Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods, particularly the Local Rule-Based Explanations (LORE) technique, within healthcare and medical settings. It emphasizes the critical role of interpretability and transparency in AI systems for diagnosing diseases, predicting patient outcomes, and creating personalized treatment plans. While acknowledging the complexities and inherent trade-offs between interpretability and model performance, our work underscores the significance of local XAI methods in enhancing decision-making processes in healthcare. By providing granular, case-specific insights, local XAI methods like LORE enhance physicians' and patients' understanding of machine learning models and their outcome. Our paper reviews significant contributions to local XAI in healthcare, highlighting its potential to improve clinical decision making, ensure fairness, and comply with regulatory standards.

Human-in-the-Loop: Visual Analytics for Building Models Recognizing Behavioral Patterns in Time Series.

Detecting complex behavioral patterns in temporal data, such as moving object trajectories, often relies on precise formal specifications derived from vague domain concepts. However, such methods are sensitive to noise and minor fluctuations, leading to missed pattern occurrences. Conversely, machine learning (ML) approaches require abundant labeled examples, posing practical challenges. Our visual analytics approach enables domain experts to derive, test, and combine interval-based features to discriminate patterns and generate training data for ML algorithms. Visual aids enhance recognition and characterization of expected patterns and discovery of unexpected ones. Case studies demonstrate feasibility and effectiveness of the approach, which offers a novel framework for integrating human expertise and analytical reasoning with ML techniques, advancing data analytics.

Advancing Dermatological Diagnostics: Interpretable AI for Enhanced Skin Lesion Classification.

A crucial challenge in critical settings like medical diagnosis is making deep learning models used in decision-making systems interpretable. Efforts in Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) are underway to address this challenge. Yet, many XAI methods are evaluated on broad classifiers and fail to address complex, real-world issues, such as medical diagnosis. In our study, we focus on enhancing user trust and confidence in automated AI decision-making systems, particularly for diagnosing skin lesions, by tailoring an XAI method to explain an AI model's ability to identify various skin lesion types. We generate explanations using synthetic images of skin lesions as examples and counterexamples, offering a method for practitioners to pinpoint the critical features influencing the classification outcome. A validation survey involving domain experts, novices, and laypersons has demonstrated that explanations increase trust and confidence in the automated decision system. Furthermore, our exploration of the model's latent space reveals clear separations among the most common skin lesion classes, a distinction that likely arises from the unique characteristics of each class and could assist in correcting frequent misdiagnoses by human professionals.

Returners and explorers dichotomy in human mobility.

The availability of massive digital traces of human whereabouts has offered a series of novel insights on the quantitative patterns characterizing human mobility. In particular, numerous recent studies have lead to an unexpected consensus: the considerable variability in the characteristic travelled distance of individuals coexists with a high degree of predictability of their future locations. Here we shed light on this surprising coexistence by systematically investigating the impact of recurrent mobility on the characteristic distance travelled by individuals. Using both mobile phone and GPS data, we discover the existence of two distinct classes of individuals: returners and explorers. As existing models of human mobility cannot explain the existence of these two classes, we develop more realistic models able to capture the empirical findings. Finally, we show that returners and explorers play a distinct quantifiable role in spreading phenomena and that a correlation exists between their mobility patterns and social interactions.

Scalable analysis of movement data for extracting and exploring significant places.

Place-oriented analysis of movement data, i.e., recorded tracks of moving objects, includes finding places of interest in which certain types of movement events occur repeatedly and investigating the temporal distribution of event occurrences in these places and, possibly, other characteristics of the places and links between them. For this class of problems, we propose a visual analytics procedure consisting of four major steps: 1) event extraction from trajectories; 2) extraction of relevant places based on event clustering; 3) spatiotemporal aggregation of events or trajectories; 4) analysis of the aggregated data. All steps can be fulfilled in a scalable way with respect to the amount of the data under analysis; therefore, the procedure is not limited by the size of the computer's RAM and can be applied to very large data sets. We demonstrate the use of the procedure by example of two real-world problems requiring analysis at different spatial scales.