Delineating genotype and parent-of-origin effect on the phenotype in MSH6-associated Lynch syndrome.

BACKGROUND: This study investigates the potential influence of genotype and parent-of-origin effects (POE) on the clinical manifestations of Lynch syndrome (LS) within families carrying (likely) disease-causing MSH6 germline variants. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A cohort of 1615 MSH6 variant carriers (310 LS families) was analyzed. Participants were categorized based on RNA expression and parental inheritance of the variant. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using weighted Cox regression, considering external information to address ascertainment bias. The findings were cross-validated using the Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database (PLSD) for endometrial cancer (EC). RESULTS: No significant association was observed between genotype and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk (HR = 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77-1.46). Patients lacking expected RNA expression exhibited a reduced risk of EC (Reference Cohort 1: HR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.43-1.03; Reference Cohort 2: HR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.46-0.87). However, these results could not be confirmed in the PLSD. Moreover, no association was found between POE and CRC risk (HR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.52-1.17) or EC risk (Reference Cohort 1: HR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.65-1.33; Reference Cohort 2: HR = 0.8, 95% CI: 0.64-1.19). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: No evidence of POE was detected in MSH6 families. While RNA expression may be linked to varying risks of EC, further investigation is required to explore this observation.

Clarifying the biological and statistical assumptions of cross-sectional biological age predictors: an elaborate illustration using synthetic and real data.

BACKGROUND: There is divergence in the rate at which people age. The concept of biological age is postulated to capture this variability, and hence to better represent an individual's true global physiological state than chronological age. Biological age predictors are often generated based on cross-sectional data, using biochemical or molecular markers as predictor variables. It is assumed that the difference between chronological and predicted biological age is informative of one's chronological age-independent aging divergence ∆. METHODS: We investigated the statistical assumptions underlying the most popular cross-sectional biological age predictors, based on multiple linear regression, the Klemera-Doubal method or principal component analysis. We used synthetic and real data to illustrate the consequences if this assumption does not hold. RESULTS: The most popular cross-sectional biological age predictors all use the same strong underlying assumption, namely that a candidate marker of aging's association with chronological age is directly informative of its association with the aging rate ∆. We called this the identical-association assumption and proved that it is untestable in a cross-sectional setting. If this assumption does not hold, weights assigned to candidate markers of aging are uninformative, and no more signal may be captured than if markers would have been assigned weights at random. CONCLUSIONS: Cross-sectional methods for predicting biological age commonly use the untestable identical-association assumption, which previous literature in the field had never explicitly acknowledged. These methods have inherent limitations and may provide uninformative results, highlighting the importance of researchers exercising caution in the development and interpretation of cross-sectional biological age predictors.

The AccelerAge framework: a new statistical approach to predict biological age based on time-to-event data.

Aging is a multifaceted and intricate physiological process characterized by a gradual decline in functional capacity, leading to increased susceptibility to diseases and mortality. While chronological age serves as a strong risk factor for age-related health conditions, considerable heterogeneity exists in the aging trajectories of individuals, suggesting that biological age may provide a more nuanced understanding of the aging process. However, the concept of biological age lacks a clear operationalization, leading to the development of various biological age predictors without a solid statistical foundation. This paper addresses these limitations by proposing a comprehensive operationalization of biological age, introducing the "AccelerAge" framework for predicting biological age, and introducing previously underutilized evaluation measures for assessing the performance of biological age predictors. The AccelerAge framework, based on Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models, directly models the effect of candidate predictors of aging on an individual's survival time, aligning with the prevalent metaphor of aging as a clock. We compare predictors based on the AccelerAge framework to a predictor based on the GrimAge predictor, which is considered one of the best-performing biological age predictors, using simulated data as well as data from the UK Biobank and the Leiden Longevity Study. Our approach seeks to establish a robust statistical foundation for biological age clocks, enabling a more accurate and interpretable assessment of an individual's aging status.

Clinical applicability of the Polygenic Risk Score for breast cancer risk prediction in familial cases.

BACKGROUND: Common low-risk variants are presently not used to guide clinical management of familial breast cancer (BC). We explored the additive impact of a 313-variant-based Polygenic Risk Score (PRS313) relative to standard gene testing in non-BRCA1/2 Dutch BC families. METHODS: We included 3918 BC cases from 3492 Dutch non-BRCA1/2 BC families and 3474 Dutch population controls. The association of the standardised PRS313 with BC was estimated using a logistic regression model, adjusted for pedigree-based family history. Family history of the controls was imputed for this analysis. SEs were corrected to account for relatedness of individuals. Using the BOADICEA (Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm) V.5 model, lifetime risks were retrospectively calculated with and without individual PRS313. For 2586 cases and 2584 controls, the carrier status of pathogenic variants (PVs) in ATM, CHEK2 and PALB2 was known. RESULTS: The family history-adjusted PRS313 was significantly associated with BC (per SD OR=1.97, 95% CI 1.84 to 2.11). Including the PRS313 in BOADICEA family-based risk prediction would have changed screening recommendations in up to 27%, 36% and 34% of cases according to BC screening guidelines from the USA, UK and the Netherlands (National Comprehensive Cancer Network, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, and Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation), respectively. For the population controls, without information on family history, this was up to 39%, 44% and 58%, respectively. Among carriers of PVs in known moderate BC susceptibility genes, the PRS313 had the largest impact for CHEK2 and ATM. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the application of the PRS313 in risk prediction for genetically uninformative BC families and families with a PV in moderate BC risk genes.

Universal Immunohistochemistry for Lynch Syndrome: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of 58,580 Colorectal Carcinomas.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Lynch syndrome is a form of hereditary colorectal cancer (CRC) caused by pathogenic germline variants (PV) in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes. Currently, many Western countries perform universal immunohistochemistry testing on CRC to increase the identification of Lynch syndrome patients and their relatives. For a clear understanding of health benefits and costs, data on its outcomes are required: proportions of Lynch syndrome, sporadic MMR-deficient (MMRd) cases, and unexplained MMRd cases. METHODS: Ovid Medline, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL were searched for studies reporting on universal MMR immunohistochemistry, followed by MMR germline analysis, until March 20, 2020. Proportions were calculated, subgroup analyses were performed based on age and diagnostics used, and random effects meta-analyses were conducted. Quality was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Critical Appraisal Tool for Prevalence Studies. RESULTS: Of 2723 identified articles, 56 studies covering 58,580 CRCs were included. In 6.22% (95% CI, 5.08%-7.61%; I2 = 96%) MMRd was identified. MMR germline PV was present in 2.00% (95% CI, 1.59%-2.50%; I2 = 92%), ranging from 1.80% to 7.27% based on completeness of diagnostics and age restriction. Immunohistochemistry outcomes were missing in 11.81%, and germline testing was performed in 76.30% of eligible patients. In 7 studies, including 6848 CRCs completing all diagnostic stages, germline PV and biallelic somatic MMR inactivation were found in 3.01% and 1.75%, respectively; 0.61% remained unexplained MMRd. CONCLUSIONS: Age, completeness, and type of diagnostics affect the percentage of MMR PV and unexplained MMRd percentages. Complete diagnostics explain almost all MMRd CRCs, reducing the amount of subsequent multigene panel testing. This contributes to optimizing testing and surveillance in MMRd CRC patients and relatives.

Genotype-phenotype correlations for pancreatic cancer risk in Dutch melanoma families with pathogenic CDKN2A variants.

BACKGROUND: Pathogenic variants in the CDKN2A gene are generally associated with the development of melanoma and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), but specific genotype-phenotype correlations might exist and the extent of PDAC risk is not well established for many variants. METHODS: Using the Dutch national familial melanoma database, we identified all families with a pathogenic CDKN2A variant and investigated the occurrence of PDAC within these families. We also estimated the standardised incidence ratio and lifetime PDAC risk for carriers of a highly prevalent variant in these families. RESULTS: We identified 172 families in which 649 individuals carried 15 different pathogenic variants. The most prevalent variant was the founder mutation c.225_243del (p16-Leiden, 484 proven carriers). Second most prevalent was c.67G>C (55 proven carriers). PDAC developed in 95 of 163 families (58%, including 373 of 629 proven carriers) harbouring a variant with an effect on the p16INK4a protein, whereas PDAC did not occur in the 9 families (20 proven carriers) with a variant affecting only p14ARF. In the c.67G>C families, PDAC occurred in 12 of the 251 (5%) persons at risk. The standardised incidence ratio was 19.1 (95% CI 8.3 to 33.6) and the cumulative PDAC incidence at age 75 years (lifetime risk) was 19% (95% CI 7.5% to 30.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the notion that pathogenic CDKN2A variants affecting the p16INK4a protein, including c.67G>C, are associated with increased PDAC risk and carriers of such variants should be offered pancreatic cancer surveillance. There is no clinical evidence that impairment of only the p14ARF protein leads to an increased PDAC risk.

Association between a 46-SNP Polygenic Risk Score and melanoma risk in Dutch patients with familial melanoma.

BACKGROUND: Familial clustering of melanoma suggests a shared genetic predisposition among family members, but only 10%-40% of familial cases carry a pathogenic variant in a known high-risk melanoma susceptibility gene. We investigated whether a melanoma-specific Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) is associated with melanoma risk in patients with genetically unexplained familial melanoma. METHODS: Dutch familial melanoma cases (n=418) were genotyped for 46 SNPs previously identified as independently associated with melanoma risk. The 46-SNP PRS was calculated and standardised to 3423 healthy controls (sPRS) and the association between PRS and melanoma risk was modelled using logistic regression. Within the case series, possible differences were further explored by investigating the PRS in relation to (1) the number of primary melanomas in a patient and (2) the extent of familial clustering of melanoma. RESULTS: The PRS was significantly associated with melanoma risk, with a per-SD OR of 2.12 (95% CI 1.90 to 2.35, p<0.001), corresponding to a 5.70-fold increased risk (95% CI 3.93 to 8.28) when comparing the top 90th to the middle 40-60th PRS percentiles. The mean PRS was significantly higher in cases with multiple primary melanomas than in cases with a single melanoma (sPRS 1.17 vs 0.71, p=0.001). Conversely, cases from high-density melanoma families had a lower (but non-significant) mean PRS than cases from low-density families (sPRS 0.60 vs 0.94, p=0.204). CONCLUSION: Our work underlines the significance of a PRS in determining melanoma susceptibility and encourages further exploration of the diagnostic value of a PRS in genetically unexplained melanoma families.

Improved selection of participants in genetic longevity studies: family scores revisited.

BACKGROUND: Although human longevity tends to cluster within families, genetic studies on longevity have had limited success in identifying longevity loci. One of the main causes of this limited success is the selection of participants. Studies generally include sporadically long-lived individuals, i.e. individuals with the longevity phenotype but without a genetic predisposition for longevity. The inclusion of these individuals causes phenotype heterogeneity which results in power reduction and bias. A way to avoid sporadically long-lived individuals and reduce sample heterogeneity is to include family history of longevity as selection criterion using a longevity family score. A main challenge when developing family scores are the large differences in family size, because of real differences in sibship sizes or because of missing data. METHODS: We discussed the statistical properties of two existing longevity family scores: the Family Longevity Selection Score (FLoSS) and the Longevity Relatives Count (LRC) score and we evaluated their performance dealing with differential family size. We proposed a new longevity family score, the mLRC score, an extension of the LRC based on random effects modeling, which is robust for family size and missing values. The performance of the new mLRC as selection tool was evaluated in an intensive simulation study and illustrated in a large real dataset, the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN). RESULTS: Empirical scores such as the FLOSS and LRC cannot properly deal with differential family size and missing data. Our simulation study showed that mLRC is not affected by family size and provides more accurate selections of long-lived families. The analysis of 1105 sibships of the Historical Sample of the Netherlands showed that the selection of long-lived individuals based on the mLRC score predicts excess survival in the validation set better than the selection based on the LRC score . CONCLUSIONS: Model-based score systems such as the mLRC score help to reduce heterogeneity in the selection of long-lived families. The power of future studies into the genetics of longevity can likely be improved and their bias reduced, by selecting long-lived cases using the mLRC.

Molecular signatures of tumor progression in myxoid liposarcoma identified by N-glycan mass spectrometry imaging.

Myxoid liposarcoma (MLS) is the second most common subtype of liposarcoma, accounting for ~6% of all sarcomas. MLS is characterized by a pathognomonic FUS-DDIT3, or rarely EWSR1-DDIT3, gene fusion. The presence of ≥5% hypercellular round cell areas is associated with a worse prognosis for the patient and is considered high grade. The prognostic significance of areas with moderately increased cellularity (intermediate) is currently unknown. Here we have applied matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry imaging to analyze the spatial distribution of N-linked glycans on an MLS microarray in order to identify molecular markers for tumor progression. Comparison of the N-glycan profiles revealed that increased relative abundances of high-mannose type glycans were associated with tumor progression. Concomitantly, an increase of the average number of mannoses on high-mannose glycans was observed. Although overall levels of complex-type glycans decreased, an increase of tri- and tetra-antennary N-glycans was observed with morphological tumor progression and increased tumor histological grade. The high abundance of tri-antennary N-glycan species was also associated with poor disease-specific survival. These findings mirror recent observations in colorectal cancer, breast cancer, ovarian cancer, and cholangiocarcinoma, and are in line with a general role of high-mannose glycans and higher-antennary complex-type glycans in cancer progression.

Validation of the BOADICEA model and a 313-variant polygenic risk score for breast cancer risk prediction in a Dutch prospective cohort.

PURPOSE: We evaluated the performance of the recently extended Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA version 5) in a Dutch prospective cohort, using a polygenic risk score (PRS) based on 313 breast cancer (BC)-associated variants (PRS313) and other, nongenetic risk factors. METHODS: Since 1989, 6522 women without BC aged 45 or older of European descent have been included in the Rotterdam Study. The PRS313 was calculated per 1 SD in controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Cox regression analysis was performed to estimate the association between the PRS313 and incident BC risk. Cumulative 10-year risks were calculated with BOADICEA including different sets of variables (age, risk factors and PRS313). C-statistics were used to evaluate discriminative ability. RESULTS: In total, 320 women developed BC. The PRS313 was significantly associated with BC (hazard ratio [HR] per SD of 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.40-1.73]). Using 10-year risk estimates including age and the PRS313, other risk factors improved the discriminatory ability of the BOADICEA model marginally, from a C-statistic of 0.636 to 0.653. CONCLUSIONS: The effect size of the PRS313 is highly reproducible in the Dutch population. Our results validate the BOADICEA v5 model for BC risk assessment in the Dutch general population.

Addition of a 161-SNP polygenic risk score to family history-based risk prediction: impact on clinical management in non-BRCA1/2 breast cancer families.

BACKGROUND: The currently known breast cancer-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are presently not used to guide clinical management. We explored whether a genetic test that incorporates a SNP-based polygenic risk score (PRS) is clinically meaningful in non-BRCA1/2 high-risk breast cancer families. METHODS: 101 non-BRCA1/2 high-risk breast cancer families were included; 323 cases and 262 unaffected female relatives were genotyped. The 161-SNP PRS was calculated and standardised to 327 population controls (sPRS). Association analysis was performed using a Cox-type random effect regression model adjusted by family history. Updated individualised breast cancer lifetime risk scores were derived by combining the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm breast cancer lifetime risk with the effect of the sPRS. RESULTS: The mean sPRS for cases and their unaffected relatives was 0.70 (SD=0.9) and 0.53 (SD=0.9), respectively. A significant association was found between sPRS and breast cancer, HR=1.16, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.28, p=0.026. Addition of the sPRS to risk prediction based on family history alone changed screening recommendations in 11.5%, 14.7% and 19.8 % of the women according to breast screening guidelines from the USA (National Comprehensive Cancer Network), UK (National Institute for Health and Care Excellence and the Netherlands (Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation), respectively. CONCLUSION: Our results support the application of the PRS in risk prediction and clinical management of women from genetically unexplained breast cancer families.

Comparison of Bisulfite Pyrosequencing and Methylation-Specific qPCR for Methylation Assessment.

Different methodological approaches are available to assess DNA methylation biomarkers. In this study, we evaluated two sodium bisulfite conversion-dependent methods, namely pyrosequencing and methylation-specific qPCR (MS-qPCR), with the aim of measuring the closeness of agreement of methylation values between these two methods and its effect when setting a cut-off. Methylation of tumor suppressor gene p16/INK4A was evaluated in 80 lung cancer patients from which cytological lymph node samples were obtained. Cluster analyses were used to establish methylated and unmethylated groups for each method. Agreement and concordance between pyrosequencing and MS-qPCR was evaluated with Pearson's correlation, Bland-Altman, Cohen's kappa index and ROC curve analyses. Based on these analyses, cut-offs were derived for MS-qPCR. An acceptable correlation (Pearson's R2 = 0.738) was found between pyrosequencing (PYRmean) and MS-qPCR (NMP; normalized methylation percentage), providing similar clinical results when categorizing data as binary using cluster analysis. Compared to pyrosequencing, MS-qPCR tended to underestimate methylation for values between 0 and 15%, while for methylation >30% overestimation was observed. The estimated cut-off for MS-qPCR data based on cluster analysis, kappa-index agreement and ROC curve analysis were much lower than that derived from pyrosequencing. In conclusion, our results indicate that independently of the approach used for estimating the cut-off, the methylation percentage obtained through MS-qPCR is lower than that calculated for pyrosequencing. These differences in data and therefore in the cut-off should be examined when using methylation biomarkers in the clinical practice.

Effects of Family History on Relative and Absolute Risks for Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Guidelines recommend that individuals with familial colorectal cancer undergo colonoscopy surveillance instead of average-risk screening. However, these recommendations vary widely. To substantiate appropriate surveillance strategies, precise and valid evidence-based risk estimates are needed for individuals with a family history of colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane from inception to July 2018 for case-control and cohort studies investigating the effect of family history on CRC risk. We calculated summary estimates of pooled relative risks (RRs) using a random-effects model. Life tables were created to convert RR estimates into absolute risk estimates. RESULTS: We screened 4417 articles and identified 42 eligible case-control and 20 cohort studies. In case-control studies, the RR for CRC in patients with 1 first-degree relative (FDR with CRC) was 1.92 (95% CI, 1.53-2.41) and 1.37 (95% CI, 0.76-2.46) for cohort studies. For individuals with 2 or more FDRs with CRC, the RR was 2.81 in case-control studies (95% CI, 1.73-4.55) and 2.40 in cohort studies (95% CI, 1.76-3.28). For individuals having a FDR diagnosed with CRC at an age younger than 50 years, the RR for CRC in their FDRs was 3.57 in case-control studies (95% CI, 1.07-11.85) and 3.26 in cohort studies (95% CI, 2.82-3.77). The cumulative absolute risks for CRC at 85 years in Western Europe were 4.8% for persons with 1 FDR with CRC (95% CI, 2.7%-8.3%), 8.2% for individuals with 2 or more FDRs (95% CI, 6.1%-10.9%), and 11% for persons with a FDR diagnosed with CRC at an age younger than 50 years (95% CI, 9.5%-12.4%). CONCLUSIONS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we found that the RR of CRC among FDRs is lower than previously expected, especially based on cohort studies. Risk estimates are affected by the number of relatives with CRC and their age at diagnosis. Intensified colonoscopy surveillance strategies could be considered for high-risk groups. PROSPERO trial identification no: CRD42018103058.

An alternative approach to establishing unbiased colorectal cancer risk estimation in Lynch syndrome.

PURPOSE: Biallelic pathogenic variants in the mismatch repair (MMR) genes cause a recessive childhood cancer predisposition syndrome known as constitutional mismatch repair deficiency (CMMRD). Family members with a heterozygous MMR variant have Lynch syndrome. We aimed at estimating cancer risk in these heterozygous carriers as a novel approach to avoid complicated statistical methods to correct for ascertainment bias. METHODS: Cumulative colorectal cancer incidence was estimated in a cohort of PMS2- and MSH6-associated families, ascertained by the CMMRD phenotype of the index, by using mutation probabilities based on kinship coefficients as analytical weights in a proportional hazard regression on the cause-specific hazards. Confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained by bootstrapping at the family level. RESULTS: The estimated cumulative colorectal cancer risk at age 70 years for heterozygous PMS2 variant carriers was 8.7% (95% CI 4.3-12.7%) for both sexes combined, and 9.9% (95% CI 4.9-15.3%) for men and 5.9% (95% CI 1.6-11.1%) for women separately. For heterozygous MSH6 variant carriers these estimates are 11.8% (95% CI 4.5-22.7%) for both sexes combined, 10.0% (95% CI 1.83-24.5%) for men and 11.7% (95% CI 2.10-26.5%) for women. CONCLUSION: Our findings are consistent with previous reports that used more complex statistical methods to correct for ascertainment bias. These results underline the need for MMR gene-specific surveillance protocols for Lynch syndrome.

Methods for testing the Markov condition in the illness-death model: a comparative study.

Markov three-state progressive and illness-death models are often used in biomedicine for describing survival data when an intermediate event of interest may be observed during the follow-up. However, the usual estimators for Markov models (e.g., Aalen-Johansen transition probabilities) may be systematically biased in non-Markovian situations. On the other hand, despite non-Markovian estimators for transition probabilities and related curves are available, including the Markov information in the construction of the estimators allows for variance reduction. Therefore, testing for the Markov condition is a relevant issue in practice. In this paper, we discuss several characterizations of the Markov condition, with special focus on its equivalence with the quasi-independence between left truncation and survival times in standard survival analysis. New methods for testing the Markovianity of an illness-death model are proposed and compared with existing ones by means of an intensive simulation study. We illustrate our findings through the analysis of a data set from stem cell transplant in leukemia. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[Practical considerations for high resolution anoscopy in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus]. / Consideraciones prácticas de la anoscopia de alta resolución en pacientes infectados por el virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana.

Anal cancer is uncommon in the general population, however its incidence is increasing significantly in certain risk groups, mainly in men who have sex with men, and particularly those infected with human immunodeficiency virus. High resolution anoscopy technique is currently considered the standard in the diagnosis of anal intraepithelial neoplasia, but at present there is no agreed standard method between health areas. High resolution anoscopy is an affordable technique that can be critical in the screening of anal carcinoma and its precursor lesions, but is not without difficulties. We are currently studying the most effective strategy for managing premalignant anal lesions, and with this article we attempt to encourage other groups interested in reducing the incidence of an increasing neoplasia.

Physical activity and fiber intake beneficial for muscle mass and strength preservation during aging: A comprehensive cross-sectional study in the UK biobank cohort.

BACKGROUND: Aging triggers intricate physiological changes, particularly in whole-body fat-free mass (FFM) and handgrip strength, affecting overall health and independence. Despite existing research, the broader significance of how muscle health is affected by the intricate interplay of lifestyle factors simultaneously during aging needs more exploration. This study aims to examine how nutrition, physical activity, and sleep impact on FFM and handgrip strength in middle-aged men and women, facilitating future personalized recommendations for preserving muscle health. METHODS: The cross-sectional analysis of the UK Biobank involved 45,984 individuals (54 % women) aged 40-70 years with a complete dataset. Multiple linear regression explored determinants of FFM and handgrip strength, considering traditional, socio-demographics, medication use and smoking as covariates, with sex and age (younger and older than 55 years) stratifications. RESULTS: In older men and women, higher physical activity beneficially affect both FFM (respectively Β = 3.36 × 10-3, p-value = 1.66 × 10-3; Β = 2.52 × 10-3, p-value = 3.57 × 10-4) and handgrip strength (Β = 6.05 × 10-3, p-value = 7.99 × 10-5, Β = 8.98 × 10-3, p-value = 2.95 × 10-15). Similar results were found in fiber intake for FFM in older men and women (respectively B = 3.00 × 10-2, p-value = 2.76 × 10-5; B = 2.68 × 10-2, p-value = 1.78 × 10-9) and handgrip strength (Β = 3.27 × 10-2, p-value = 1.40 × 10-3; Β = 3.12 × 10-2, p-value = 1.34 × 10-5). Other lifestyle factors influence FFM and handgrip strength differently. Key determinants influencing handgrip strength included higher protein intake, lower water intake, higher alcohol intake, and extended sleep duration whereas mainly higher water intake is associated with higher FFM. CONCLUSIONS: In both men and women, the main factors associated with FFM and handgrip strength are physical activity and fiber intake, which may underlie a connection between gut and muscle health. Given the observed complexity of muscle health in the age and sex strata, further longitudinal research is needed to provide personalized lifestyle recommendations.

Association of NOTCH3 Variant Risk Category With 2-Year Clinical and Radiologic Small Vessel Disease Progression in Patients With CADASIL.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Pathogenic variants in NOTCH3 are the main cause of hereditary cerebral small vessel disease (SVD). SVD-associated NOTCH3 variants have recently been categorized into high risk (HR), moderate risk (MR), or low risk (LR) for developing early-onset severe SVD. The most severe NOTCH3-associated SVD phenotype is also known as cerebral autosomal dominant arteriopathy with subcortical infarcts and leukoencephalopathy (CADASIL). We aimed to investigate whether NOTCH3 variant risk category is associated with 2-year progression rate of SVD clinical and neuroimaging outcomes in CADASIL. METHODS: A single-center prospective 2-year follow-up study was performed of patients with CADASIL. Clinical outcomes were incident stroke, disability (modified Rankin Scale), and executive function (Trail Making Test B given A t-scores). Neuroimaging outcomes were mean skeletonized mean diffusivity (MSMD), normalized white matter hyperintensity volume (nWMHv), normalized lacune volume (nLV), and brain parenchymal fraction (BPF). Cox regression and mixed-effect models, adjusted for age, sex, and cardiovascular risk factors, were used to study 2-year changes in outcomes and differences in disease progression between patients with HR-NOTCH3 and MR-NOTCH3 variants. RESULTS: One hundred sixty-two patients with HR (n = 90), MR (n = 67), and LR (n = 5) NOTCH3 variants were included. For the entire cohort, there was 2-year mean progression for MSMD (ß = 0.20, 95% CI 0.17-0.23, p = 7.0 × 10-24), nLV (ß = 0.13, 95% CI 0.080-0.19, p = 2.1 × 10-6), nWMHv (ß = 0.092, 95% CI 0.075-0.11, p = 8.8 × 10-20), and BPF (ß = -0.22, 95% CI -0.26 to -0.19, p = 3.2 × 10-22), as well as an increase in disability (p = 0.002) and decline of executive function (ß = -0.15, 95% CI -0.30 to -3.4 × 10-5, p = 0.05). The HR-NOTCH3 group had a higher probability of 2-year incident stroke (hazard ratio 4.3, 95% CI 1.4-13.5, p = 0.011), and a higher increase in MSMD (ß = 0.074, 95% CI 0.013-0.14, p = 0.017) and nLV (ß = 0.14, 95% CI 0.034-0.24, p = 0.0089) than the MR-NOTCH3 group. Subgroup analyses showed significant 2-year progression of MSMD in young (n = 17, ß = 0.014, 95% CI 0.0093-0.019, p = 1.4 × 10-5) and premanifest (n = 24, ß = 0.012, 95% CI 0.0082-0.016, p = 1.1 × 10-6) individuals. DISCUSSION: In a trial-sensitive time span of 2 years, we found that patients with HR-NOTCH3 variants have a significantly faster progression of major clinical and neuroimaging outcomes, compared with patients with MR-NOTCH3 variants. This has important implications for clinical trial design and disease prediction and monitoring in the clinic. Moreover, we show that MSMD is a promising outcome measure for trials enrolling premanifest individuals.

Model building in nonproportional hazard regression.

Recent developments of statistical methods allow for a very flexible modeling of covariates affecting survival times via the hazard rate, including also the inspection of possible time-dependent associations. Despite their immediate appeal in terms of flexibility, these models typically introduce additional difficulties when a subset of covariates and the corresponding modeling alternatives have to be chosen, that is, for building the most suitable model for given data. This is particularly true when potentially time-varying associations are given. We propose to conduct a piecewise exponential representation of the original survival data to link hazard regression with estimation schemes based on of the Poisson likelihood to make recent advances for model building in exponential family regression accessible also in the nonproportional hazard regression context. A two-stage stepwise selection approach, an approach based on doubly penalized likelihood, and a componentwise functional gradient descent approach are adapted to the piecewise exponential regression problem. These three techniques were compared via an intensive simulation study. An application to prognosis after discharge for patients who suffered a myocardial infarction supplements the simulation to demonstrate the pros and cons of the approaches in real data analyses.

Systematic pancreatic stenting after endoscopic snare papillectomy may reduce the risk of postinterventional pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatitis is the most feared complication of endoscopic papillectomy (EP). Prevention by pancreatic duct stenting following EP has been advocated but not proven by a randomized trial. The purpose of the present retrospective review is to compare a period of systematic stenting with the period before in which stents were placed selectively. METHODS: A total of 107 patients undergoing EP from February 1999 to December 2009 were retrospectively reviewed. After an initial period with selective stenting (dilated duct, previous pancreatitis) between 1999 and 2002 (n = 24, group 1), stents were placed routinely after EP unless pancreas divisum was diagnosed (2002-2009; n = 83, group 2) to reduce postpapillectomy acute pancreatitis (PAP). PAP rates defined by Consensus Criteria were compared in the two periods. RESULTS: Five patients in group 1 were selected to receive a pancreatic stent (21%); in group 2 stenting was successful in 75 of 78 patients (success rate 96%) without pancreas divisum (n = 5). Overall, PAP occurred in 11% of patients. PAP rate was significantly reduced after introduction of systematic pancreatic stenting (5 vs 25%; p = 0.01) and occurred less often in stented than in nonstented patients: (5% (4/80) vs 27% (6/22), p = 0.0019). PAP also occurred in one of five patients with pancreas divisum. Selective stenting of patients also was an independent risk factor for PAP (OR 13, p = 0.001) in a multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Attempts at systematic stenting after EP pancreatic stenting appears to prevent PAP. Results should be corroborated by a randomized trial.