Ocean circulation, ice shelf, and sea ice interactions explain Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles.

The last glacial interval experienced abrupt climatic changes called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. These events manifest themselves as rapid increases followed by slow decreases of oxygen isotope ratios in Greenland ice core records. Despite promising advances, a comprehensive theory of the DO cycles, with their repeated ups and downs of isotope ratios, is still lacking. Here, based on earlier hypotheses, we introduce a dynamical model that explains the DO variability by rapid retreat and slow regrowth of thick ice shelves and thin sea ice in conjunction with changing subsurface water temperatures due to insulation by the ice cover. Our model successfully reproduces observed features of the records, such as the sawtooth shape of the DO cycles, waiting times between DO events across the last glacial, and the shifted antiphase relationship between Greenland and Antarctic ice cores. Our results show that these features can be obtained via internal feedbacks alone. Warming subsurface waters could have also contributed to the triggering of Heinrich events. Our model thus offers a unified framework for explaining major features of multimillennial climate variability during glacial intervals.

The impact of Last Glacial climate variability in west-European loess revealed by radiocarbon dating of fossil earthworm granules.

The characterization of Last Glacial millennial-timescale warming phases, known as interstadials or Dansgaard-Oeschger events, requires precise chronologies for the study of paleoclimate records. On the European continent, such chronologies are only available for several Last Glacial pollen and rare speleothem archives principally located in the Mediterranean domain. Farther north, in continental lowlands, numerous high-resolution records of loess and paleosols sequences show a consistent environmental response to stadial-interstadial cycles. However, the limited precision and accuracy of luminescence dating methods commonly used in loess deposits preclude exact correlations of paleosol horizons with Greenland interstadials. To overcome this problem, a radiocarbon dating protocol has been developed to date earthworm calcite granules from the reference loess sequence of Nussloch (Germany). Its application yields a consistent radiocarbon chronology of all soil horizons formed between 47 and 20 ka and unambiguously shows the correlation of every Greenland interstadial identified in isotope records with specific soil horizons. Furthermore, eight additional minor soil horizons dated between 27.5 and 21 ka only correlate with minor decreases in Greenland dust records. This dating strategy reveals the high sensitivity of loess paleoenvironments to Northern Hemisphere climate changes. A connection between loess sedimentation rate, Fennoscandian ice sheet dynamics, and sea level changes is proposed. The chronological improvements enabled by the radiocarbon "earthworm clock" thus strongly enhance our understanding of loess records to a better perception of the impact of Last Glacial climate changes on European paleoenvironments.

The PaleoJump database for abrupt transitions in past climates.

Tipping points (TPs) in Earth's climate system have been the subject of increasing interest and concern in recent years, given the risk that anthropogenic forcing could cause abrupt, potentially irreversible, climate transitions. Paleoclimate records are essential for identifying past TPs and for gaining a thorough understanding of the underlying nonlinearities and bifurcation mechanisms. However, the quality, resolution, and reliability of these records can vary, making it important to carefully select the ones that provide the most accurate representation of past climates. Moreover, as paleoclimate time series vary in their origin, time spans, and periodicities, an objective, automated methodology is crucial for identifying and comparing TPs. To address these challenges, we introduce the open-source PaleoJump database, which contains a collection of carefully selected, high-resolution records originating in ice cores, marine sediments, speleothems, terrestrial records, and lake sediments. These records describe climate variability on centennial, millennial and longer time scales and cover all the continents and ocean basins. We provide an overview of their spatial distribution and discuss the gaps in coverage. Our statistical methodology includes an augmented Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Recurrence Quantification Analysis; it is applied here, for illustration purposes, to selected records in which abrupt transitions are automatically detected and the presence of potential tipping elements is investigated. These transitions are shown in the PaleoJump database along with other essential information about the records, including location, temporal scale and resolution, as well as temporal plots. This open-source database represents, therefore, a valuable resource for researchers investigating TPs in past climates.

A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions.

The Earth's climate has experienced numerous critical transitions during its history, which have often been accompanied by massive and rapid changes in the biosphere. Such transitions are evidenced in various proxy records covering different timescales. The goal is then to identify, date, characterize, and rank past critical transitions in terms of importance, thus possibly yielding a more thorough perspective on climatic history. To illustrate such an approach, which is inspired by the punctuated equilibrium perspective on the theory of evolution, we have analyzed 2 key high-resolution datasets: the CENOGRID marine compilation (past 66 Myr), and North Atlantic U1308 record (past 3.3 Myr). By combining recurrence analysis of the individual time series with a multivariate representation of the system based on the theory of the quasi-potential, we identify the key abrupt transitions associated with major regime changes that separate various clusters of climate variability. This allows interpreting the time-evolution of the system as a trajectory taking place in a dynamical landscape, whose multiscale features describe a hierarchy of metastable states and associated tipping points.

A reliable benchmark of the last 640,000 years millennial climate variability.

How often have past climates undergone abrupt transitions? While our understanding of millennial variability during the past 130,000 years is well established, with precise dates available, such information on previous climate cycles is limited. To address this question, we identified 196 abrupt transitions in the δ18O record of the well-dated Chinese composite speleothem for the last 640,000 years. These results correspond to abrupt changes in the strength of the East Asian Monsoon, which align with the Greenland stadials and interstadials observed in the North Atlantic region during the last 130,000 years before present. These precise dates of past abrupt climate changes constitute a reliable and necessary benchmark for Earth System models used to study future climate scenarios.

Late miocene-pliocene paleoclimatic evolution documented by terrestrial mollusk populations in the western Chinese Loess Plateau.

The Neogene eolian deposits in the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) are one of the most useful continental deposits for understanding climatic changes. To decipher Late Neogene paleoclimatic changes in the CLP, we present a terrestrial mollusk record spanning the time interval between 7.1 and 3.5 Ma from the western CLP. The results indicate four stages of paleoclimatic evolution: From 7.1 to 6.2 Ma, cold and dry climatic conditions prevailed as evidenced by high values of the total number of cold-aridiphilous (CA) mollusk species and by low values of all of the thermo-humidiphilous (TH) mollusk indices. From 6.2 to 5.4 Ma, the climate remained cold and dry but was not quite as dry as during the preceding phase, as indicated by the dominance of CA mollusks and more TH species and individuals. From 5.4 to 4.4 Ma, a warm and moist climate prevailed, as indicated by high values of the TH species and individuals and by the sparsity of CA species and individuals. From 4.4 to 3.5 Ma, all of the CA indices increased significantly and maintained high values; all of the TH indices exhibit high values from 4.4 to 4.0 Ma, an abrupt decrease from 4.0 Ma and a further increase from 3.7 Ma. The CA species of Cathaica pulveraticula, Cathaica schensiensis, and Pupopsis retrodens are only identified in this stage, indicating that the CA species were diversified and that the climate was becoming drier. Moreover, the CA mollusk group exhibits considerable diversity from 7.1 to 5.4 Ma when a cold, dry climate prevailed; whereas the diversity of the TH group was high during the relatively warm, wet interval from 5.4 to 4.4 Ma. This indicates that variations in the diversity of the CA and TH mollusk groups were closely related to climatic changes during the Late Miocene to Pliocene.