Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Mostrar: 20 | 50 | 100
Resultados 1 - 20 de 43
Filtrar
Mais filtros

Base de dados
País/Região como assunto
Tipo de documento
Intervalo de ano de publicação
1.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(33): e2301926120, 2023 08 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37552753

RESUMO

Swine are a primary source for the emergence of pandemic influenza A viruses. The intensification of swine production, along with global trade, has amplified the transmission and zoonotic risk of swine influenza A virus (swIAV). Effective surveillance is essential to uncover emerging virus strains; however gaps remain in our understanding of the swIAV genomic landscape in Southeast Asia. More than 4,000 nasal swabs were collected from pigs in Cambodia, yielding 72 IAV-positive samples by RT-qPCR and 45 genomic sequences. We unmasked the cocirculation of multiple lineages of genetically diverse swIAV of pandemic concern. Genomic analyses revealed a novel European avian-like H1N2 swIAV reassortant variant with North American triple reassortant internal genes, that emerged approximately seven years before its first detection in pigs in 2021. Using phylogeographic reconstruction, we identified south central China as the dominant source of swine viruses disseminated to other regions in China and Southeast Asia. We also identified nine distinct swIAV lineages in Cambodia, which diverged from their closest ancestors between two and 15 B.P., indicating significant undetected diversity in the region, including reverse zoonoses of human H1N1/2009 pandemic and H3N2 viruses. A similar period of cryptic circulation of swIAVs occurred in the decades before the H1N1/2009 pandemic. The hidden diversity of swIAV observed here further emphasizes the complex underlying evolutionary processes present in this region, reinforcing the importance of genomic surveillance at the human-swine interface for early warning of disease emergence to avoid future pandemics.


Assuntos
Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H1N1 , Vírus da Influenza A , Influenza Humana , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae , Doenças dos Suínos , Suínos , Animais , Humanos , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H3N2/genética , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H1N1/genética , Vírus Reordenados/genética , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/epidemiologia , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/veterinária , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Vírus da Influenza A/genética , Genômica , Filogenia , Camboja/epidemiologia , Doenças dos Suínos/epidemiologia
2.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(41)2021 10 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34615712

RESUMO

Zoonotic spillover and hybridization of parasites are major emerging public and veterinary health concerns at the interface of infectious disease biology, evolution, and control. Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease of global importance caused by parasites of the Schistosoma genus, and the Schistosoma spp. system within Africa represents a key example of a system where spillover of animal parasites into human populations has enabled formation of hybrids. Combining model-based approaches and analyses of parasitological, molecular, and epidemiological data from northern Senegal, a region with a high prevalence of schistosome hybrids, we aimed to unravel the transmission dynamics of this complex multihost, multiparasite system. Using Bayesian methods and by estimating the basic reproduction number (R0 ), we evaluate the frequency of zoonotic spillover of Schistosoma bovis from livestock and the potential for onward transmission of hybrid S. bovis × S. haematobium offspring within human populations. We estimate R0 of hybrid schistosomes to be greater than the critical threshold of one (1.76; 95% CI 1.59 to 1.99), demonstrating the potential for hybridization to facilitate spread and establishment of schistosomiasis beyond its original geographical boundaries. We estimate R0 for S. bovis to be greater than one in cattle (1.43; 95% CI 1.24 to 1.85) but not in other ruminants, confirming cattle as the primary zoonotic reservoir. Through longitudinal simulations, we also show that where S. bovis and S. haematobium are coendemic (in livestock and humans respectively), the relative importance of zoonotic transmission is predicted to increase as the disease in humans nears elimination.


Assuntos
Número Básico de Reprodução/estatística & dados numéricos , Gado/parasitologia , Schistosoma haematobium/patogenicidade , Esquistossomose Urinária/transmissão , Esquistossomose Urinária/veterinária , Animais , Bovinos/parasitologia , Cabras/parasitologia , Humanos , Doenças Negligenciadas/parasitologia , Senegal/epidemiologia , Ovinos/parasitologia , Zoonoses/parasitologia , Zoonoses/transmissão
3.
BMC Infect Dis ; 19(1): 231, 2019 Mar 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30845930

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Although Indonesia has high fatality rate of human A/H5N1 cases, epidemiological and clinical data on influenza virus circulation among humans has been limited. Within Indonesia, Bali province is of interest due to high population densities of humans, pigs and poultry. This study aims to characterize and compare the epidemiological and clinical patterns of influenza viruses in humans through surveillance among patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) in Bali, Indonesia. METHODS: ILI patients were recruited at 21 sentinel health facilities across all nine regencies in Bali, from July 2010 to June 2014. PCR-based assays were used for detection and subtyping of influenza viruses. Demographic, behavioural and clinical data were tested for associations with influenza using chi-squared tests and logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 2077 ILI patients, 291 (14.0%) tested positive for influenza A, 152 (7.3%) for influenza B, and 16 (0.77%) for both influenza A and B. Of the influenza A isolates, the majority 61.2% were A/H3N2, followed by A/H1N1-pdm09 (80; 26.1%). Two A/H5N1 were identified. Influenza positive rates were significantly higher during wet season months (28.3%), compared with the dry season (13.8%; χ2 = 61.1; df = 1; p < 0.0001). Clinical predictors for infection varied by virus type, with measured fever (≥38 °C) more strongly associated with influenza B (AOR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.10, 2.39). CONCLUSION: Influenza circulates year-round among humans in Bali with higher activity during the wet season. High contact rates with poultry and pigs, along with influenza virus detection that could not be subtyped through conventional assays, highlight the need for molecular studies to characterize epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza in this setting.


Assuntos
Betainfluenzavirus/genética , Vírus da Influenza A/genética , Influenza Humana/diagnóstico , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Indonésia/epidemiologia , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Vírus da Influenza A/isolamento & purificação , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/virologia , Betainfluenzavirus/isolamento & purificação , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fatores de Risco , Estações do Ano , Adulto Jovem
5.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 110(28): 11457-62, 2013 Jul 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23798418

RESUMO

Understanding disease transmission dynamics in multihost parasite systems is a research priority for control and potential elimination of many infectious diseases. In China, despite decades of multifaceted control efforts against schistosomiasis, the indirectly transmitted helminth Schistosoma japonicum remains endemic, partly because of the presence of zoonotic reservoirs. We used mathematical modeling and conceptual frameworks of multihost transmission ecology to assess the relative importance of various definitive host species for S. japonicum transmission in contrasting hilly and marshland areas of China. We examine whether directing control interventions against zoonotic reservoirs could further reduce incidence of infection in humans or even eliminate transmission. Results suggest that, under current control programs, infections in humans result from spillover of transmission among zoonotic reservoirs. Estimates of the basic reproduction number within each species suggest that bovines (water buffalo and cattle) maintained transmission in the marshland area and that the recent removal of bovines from this area could achieve local elimination of transmission. However, the sole use of antifecundity S. japonicum vaccines for bovines, at least at current efficacies, may not achieve elimination in areas of comparable endemicity where removal of bovines is not a feasible option. The results also suggest that rodents drive transmission in the hilly area. Therefore, although targeting bovines could further reduce and potentially interrupt transmission in marshland regions of China, elimination of S. japonicum could prove more challenging in areas where rodents might maintain transmission. In conclusion, we show how mathematical modeling can give important insights into multihost transmission of indirectly transmitted pathogens.


Assuntos
Schistosoma japonicum/isolamento & purificação , Esquistossomose/parasitologia , Animais , Bovinos , China , Esquistossomose/transmissão
6.
Milbank Q ; 91(1): 78-122, 2013 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23488712

RESUMO

CONTEXT: Over the past decade, a number of high-impact natural hazard events, together with the increased recognition of pandemic risks, have intensified interest in health systems' ability to prepare for, and cope with, "surges" (sudden large-scale escalations) in treatment needs. In this article, we identify key concepts and components associated with this emerging research theme. We consider the requirements for a standardized conceptual framework for future research capable of informing policy to reduce the morbidity and mortality impacts of such incidents. Here our objective is to appraise the consistency and utility of existing conceptualizations of health systems' surge capacity and their components, with a view to standardizing concepts and measurements to enable future research to generate a cumulative knowledge base for policy and practice. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature on concepts of health systems' surge capacity, with a narrative summary of key concepts relevant to public health. FINDINGS: The academic literature on surge capacity demonstrates considerable variation in its conceptualization, terms, definitions, and applications. This, together with an absence of detailed and comparable data, has hampered efforts to develop standardized conceptual models, measurements, and metrics. Some degree of consensus is evident for the components of surge capacity, but more work is needed to integrate them. The overwhelming concentration in the United States complicates the generalizability of existing approaches and findings. CONCLUSIONS: The concept of surge capacity is a useful addition to the study of health systems' disaster and/or pandemic planning, mitigation, and response, and it has far-reaching policy implications. Even though research in this area has grown quickly, it has yet to fulfill its potential to generate knowledge to inform policy. Work is needed to generate robust conceptual and analytical frameworks, along with innovations in data collection and methodological approaches that enhance health systems' readiness for, and response to, unpredictable high-consequence surges in demand.


Assuntos
Planejamento em Desastres , Pesquisa sobre Serviços de Saúde , Capacidade de Resposta ante Emergências , Planejamento em Desastres/organização & administração , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Incidentes com Feridos em Massa , Capacidade de Resposta ante Emergências/normas , Capacidade de Resposta ante Emergências/estatística & dados numéricos
7.
Int J Equity Health ; 12: 82, 2013 Oct 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24090286

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Human influenza infection poses a serious public health threat in Cambodia, a country at risk for the emergence and spread of novel influenza viruses with pandemic potential. Prior pandemics demonstrated the adverse impact of influenza on poor communities in developing countries. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution can inform decisions regarding resource mobilization and investment for pandemic mitigation. METHODS: A health facility survey performed across Cambodia obtained data on availability of healthcare resources important for pandemic influenza response. Focusing on five key resources considered most necessary for treating severe influenza (inpatient beds, doctors, nurses, oseltamivir, and ventilators), resource distributions were analyzed at the Operational District (OD) and Province levels, refining data analysis from earlier studies. Resources were stratified by respondent type (hospital vs. District Health Office [DHO]). A summary index of distribution inequality was calculated using the Gini coefficient. Indices for local spatial autocorrelation were measured at the OD level using geographical information system (GIS) analysis. Finally, a potential link between socioeconomic status and resource distribution was explored by mapping resource densities against poverty rates. RESULTS: Gini coefficient calculation revealed variable inequality in distribution of the five key resources at the Province and OD levels. A greater percentage of the population resides in areas of relative under-supply (28.5%) than over-supply (21.3%). Areas with more resources per capita showed significant clustering in central Cambodia while areas with fewer resources clustered in the northern and western provinces. Hospital-based inpatient beds, doctors, and nurses were most heavily concentrated in areas of the country with the lowest poverty rates; however, beds and nurses in Non-Hospital Medical Facilities (NHMF) showed increasing concentrations at higher levels of poverty. CONCLUSIONS: There is considerable heterogeneity in healthcare resource distribution across Cambodia. Distribution mapping at the local level can inform policy decisions on where to stockpile resources in advance of and for reallocation in the event of a pandemic. These findings will be useful in determining future health resource investment, both for pandemic preparedness and for general health system strengthening, and provide a foundation for future analyses of equity in health services provision for pandemic mitigation planning in Cambodia.


Assuntos
Atenção à Saúde/organização & administração , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Alocação de Recursos/organização & administração , Camboja/epidemiologia , Mapeamento Geográfico , Humanos , Pobreza/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores Socioeconômicos
8.
J R Soc Interface ; 20(202): 20220890, 2023 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37194271

RESUMO

Contact structure among livestock populations influences the transmission of infectious agents among them. Models simulating realistic contact networks therefore have important applications for generating insights relevant to livestock diseases. This systematic review identifies and compares such models, their applications, data sources and how their validity was assessed. From 52 publications, 37 models were identified comprising seven model frameworks. These included mathematical models (n = 8; including generalized random graphs, scale-free, Watts-Strogatz and spatial models), agent-based models (n = 8), radiation models (n = 1) (collectively, considered 'mechanistic'), gravity models (n = 4), exponential random graph models (n = 9), other forms of statistical model (n = 6) (statistical) and random forests (n = 1) (machine learning). Overall, nearly half of the models were used as inputs for network-based epidemiological models. In all models, edges represented livestock movements, sometimes alongside other forms of contact. Statistical models were often applied to infer factors associated with network formation (n = 12). Mechanistic models were commonly applied to assess the interaction between network structure and disease dissemination (n = 6). Mechanistic, statistical and machine learning models were all applied to generate networks given limited data (n = 13). There was considerable variation in the approaches used for model validation. Finally, we discuss the relative strengths and weaknesses of model frameworks in different use cases.


Assuntos
Gado , Modelos Teóricos , Animais , Modelos Estatísticos , Movimento
9.
Front Public Health ; 11: 1124016, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37151588

RESUMO

Background: Data on the epidemiology of Streptococcus pneumoniae among influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, particularly in low- and middle-income countries are scarce. This study assessed the prevalence, risk factors and serotype distribution of S. pneumoniae carriage among ILI cases in metropolitan Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic. The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) was introduced among infants in October 2013. Methods: Active ILI surveillance was conducted through weekly phone calls in an open community-based cohort study (April 2015-February 2019), involving 5,690 participants from 1,142 randomly selected households. Participants reporting ILI symptoms provided a nasopharyngeal swab and answered a questionnaire. S. pneumoniae and serotype pneumococcal-positive samples were screened by Multiplex PCR assays. Chi-squared tests and generalized linear mixed models were used to test for variables associated with pneumococcal positivity. Results: Among 1,621 ILI episodes, 269 (16.6%) tested positive for nasopharyngeal pneumococcal carriage, with the highest prevalence (55.4%) in children under 5 years. Pneumococcal carriage was significantly associated with concurrent detection of Hemophilus influenzae (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 6.93; 95% CI: 2.10-22.9) and exposure to household cigarette smoke (aOR: 1.65; 95% CI: 1.07-2.54). PCV13 serotypes accounted for 37.8% of all pneumococcal isolates. Detection of PCV13 serotypes among ILI cases aged under 5 years declined significantly between 2015/16 and 2018/19. Conclusions: Community-based surveillance of S. pneumoniae among ILI cases complement surveillance at healthcare facilities to provide a more complete picture of pneumococcal carriage. Our findings contribute also to the growing body of evidence on the effects of PCV13 introduction on circulating serotypes and their potential replacement.


Assuntos
Influenza Humana , Infecções Pneumocócicas , Lactente , Criança , Humanos , Pré-Escolar , Idoso , Streptococcus pneumoniae , Sorogrupo , Estudos de Coortes , Infecções Pneumocócicas/epidemiologia , Infecções Pneumocócicas/prevenção & controle , Laos/epidemiologia , Portador Sadio/epidemiologia , Vacinas Conjugadas/farmacologia
10.
Sci Rep ; 13(1): 5542, 2023 04 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37015945

RESUMO

Social mixing patterns are key determinants of infectious disease transmission. Mathematical models parameterised with empirical data from contact pattern surveys have played an important role in understanding epidemic dynamics and informing control strategies, including for SARS-CoV-2. However, there is a paucity of data on social mixing patterns in many settings. We conducted a community-based survey in Cambodia in 2012 to characterise mixing patterns and generate setting-specific contact matrices according to age and urban/rural populations. Data were collected using a diary-based approach from 2016 participants, selected by stratified random sampling. Contact patterns were highly age-assortative, with clear intergenerational mixing between household members. Both home and school were high-intensity contact settings, with 27.7% of contacts occurring at home with non-household members. Social mixing patterns differed between rural and urban residents; rural participants tended to have more intergenerational mixing, and a higher number of contacts outside of home, work or school. Participants had low spatial mobility, with 88% of contacts occurring within 1 km of the participants' homes. These data broaden the evidence-base on social mixing patterns in low and middle-income countries and Southeast Asia, and highlight within-country heterogeneities which may be important to consider when modelling the dynamics of pathogens transmitted via close contact.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Doenças Transmissíveis , Humanos , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Camboja/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Comportamento Social
11.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 17(5): e0010739, 2023 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37216407

RESUMO

Schistosomiasis is a major neglected tropical disease (NTD) affecting both humans and animals. The morbidity and mortality inflicted upon livestock in the Afrotropical region has been largely overlooked, in part due to a lack of validated sensitive and specific tests, which do not require specialist training or equipment to deliver and interpret. As stressed within the recent WHO NTD 2021-2030 Roadmap and Revised Guideline for schistosomiasis, inexpensive, non-invasive, and sensitive diagnostic tests for livestock-use would also facilitate both prevalence mapping and appropriate intervention programmes. The aim of this study was to assess the sensitivity and specificity of the currently available point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen test (POC-CCA), designed for Schistosoma mansoni detection in humans, for the detection of intestinal livestock schistosomiasis caused by Schistosoma bovis and Schistosoma curassoni. POC-CCA, together with the circulating anodic antigen (CAA) test, miracidial hatching technique (MHT), Kato-Katz (KK) and organ and mesentery inspection (for animals from abattoirs only), were applied to samples collected from 195 animals (56 cattle and 139 small ruminants (goats and sheep) from abattoirs and living populations) from Senegal. POC-CCA sensitivity was greater in the S. curassoni-dominated Barkedji livestock, both for cattle (median 81%; 95% credible interval (CrI): 55%-98%) and small ruminants (49%; CrI: 29%-87%), than in the S. bovis-dominated Richard Toll ruminants (cattle: 62%; CrI: 41%-84%; small ruminants: 12%, CrI: 1%-37%). Overall, sensitivity was greater in cattle than in small ruminants. Small ruminants POC-CCA specificity was similar in both locations (91%; CrI: 77%-99%), whilst cattle POC-CCA specificity could not be assessed owing to the low number of uninfected cattle surveyed. Our results indicate that, whilst the current POC-CCA does represent a potential diagnostic tool for cattle and possibly for predominantly S. curassoni-infected livestock, future work is needed to develop parasite- and/or livestock-specific affordable and field-applicable diagnostic tests to enable determination of the true extent of livestock schistosomiasis.


Assuntos
Gado , Esquistossomose mansoni , Humanos , Animais , Bovinos , Ovinos , Sistemas Automatizados de Assistência Junto ao Leito , Teorema de Bayes , Análise de Classes Latentes , Antígenos de Helmintos , Esquistossomose mansoni/epidemiologia , Schistosoma mansoni , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Prevalência , Fezes/química
12.
Lancet ; 377(9765): 599-609, 2011 Feb 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21269678

RESUMO

Southeast Asia is a hotspot for emerging infectious diseases, including those with pandemic potential. Emerging infectious diseases have exacted heavy public health and economic tolls. Severe acute respiratory syndrome rapidly decimated the region's tourist industry. Influenza A H5N1 has had a profound effect on the poultry industry. The reasons why southeast Asia is at risk from emerging infectious diseases are complex. The region is home to dynamic systems in which biological, social, ecological, and technological processes interconnect in ways that enable microbes to exploit new ecological niches. These processes include population growth and movement, urbanisation, changes in food production, agriculture and land use, water and sanitation, and the effect of health systems through generation of drug resistance. Southeast Asia is home to about 600 million people residing in countries as diverse as Singapore, a city state with a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$37,500 per head, and Laos, until recently an overwhelmingly rural economy, with a GDP of US$890 per head. The regional challenges in control of emerging infectious diseases are formidable and range from influencing the factors that drive disease emergence, to making surveillance systems fit for purpose, and ensuring that regional governance mechanisms work effectively to improve control interventions.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/prevenção & controle , Animais , Sudeste Asiático/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/economia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Países em Desenvolvimento , Resistência Microbiana a Medicamentos , Humanos , Virus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N1 , Influenza Humana/economia , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Gado , Vigilância da População , Síndrome Respiratória Aguda Grave/epidemiologia , Urbanização , Zoonoses/epidemiologia , Zoonoses/transmissão
13.
Int J Health Geogr ; 11: 53, 2012 Dec 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23241450

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: There is increasing perception that countries cannot work in isolation to militate against the threat of pandemic influenza. In the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) of Asia, high socio-economic diversity and fertile conditions for the emergence and spread of infectious diseases underscore the importance of transnational cooperation. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution and inequalities can help determine the need for, and inform decisions regarding, resource sharing and mobilisation. METHODS: We collected data on healthcare resources deemed important for responding to pandemic influenza through surveys of hospitals and district health offices across four countries of the GMS (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, Vietnam). Focusing on four key resource types (oseltamivir, hospital beds, ventilators, and health workers), we mapped and analysed resource distributions at province level to identify relative shortages, mismatches, and clustering of resources. We analysed inequalities in resource distribution using the Gini coefficient and Theil index. RESULTS: Three quarters of the Cambodian population and two thirds of the Laotian population live in relatively underserved provinces (those with resource densities in the lowest quintile across the region) in relation to health workers, ventilators, and hospital beds. More than a quarter of the Thai population is relatively underserved for health workers and oseltamivir. Approximately one fifth of the Vietnamese population is underserved for beds and ventilators. All Cambodian provinces are underserved for at least one resource. In Lao PDR, 11 percent of the population is underserved by all four resource items. Of the four resources, ventilators and oseltamivir were most unequally distributed. Cambodia generally showed higher levels of inequalities in resource distribution compared to other countries. Decomposition of the Theil index suggests that inequalities result principally from differences within, rather than between, countries. CONCLUSIONS: There is considerable heterogeneity in healthcare resource distribution within and across countries of the GMS. Most inequalities result from within countries. Given the inequalities, mismatches, and clustering of resources observed here, resource sharing and mobilization in a pandemic scenario could be crucial for more effective and equitable use of the resources that are available in the GMS.


Assuntos
Atenção à Saúde , Recursos em Saúde/provisão & distribuição , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Capacidade de Resposta ante Emergências , Sudeste Asiático/epidemiologia , Mapeamento Geográfico , Humanos , Corpo Clínico Hospitalar/provisão & distribuição , Inquéritos e Questionários
14.
BMC Public Health ; 12: 870, 2012 Oct 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23061807

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Health care planning for pandemic influenza is a challenging task which requires predictive models by which the impact of different response strategies can be evaluated. However, current preparedness plans and simulations exercises, as well as freely available simulation models previously made for policy makers, do not explicitly address the availability of health care resources or determine the impact of shortages on public health. Nevertheless, the feasibility of health systems to implement response measures or interventions described in plans and trained in exercises depends on the available resource capacity. As part of the AsiaFluCap project, we developed a comprehensive and flexible resource modelling tool to support public health officials in understanding and preparing for surges in resource demand during future pandemics. RESULTS: The AsiaFluCap Simulator is a combination of a resource model containing 28 health care resources and an epidemiological model. The tool was built in MS Excel© and contains a user-friendly interface which allows users to select mild or severe pandemic scenarios, change resource parameters and run simulations for one or multiple regions. Besides epidemiological estimations, the simulator provides indications on resource gaps or surpluses, and the impact of shortages on public health for each selected region. It allows for a comparative analysis of the effects of resource availability and consequences of different strategies of resource use, which can provide guidance on resource prioritising and/or mobilisation. Simulation results are displayed in various tables and graphs, and can also be easily exported to GIS software to create maps for geographical analysis of the distribution of resources. CONCLUSIONS: The AsiaFluCap Simulator is freely available software (http://www.cdprg.org) which can be used by policy makers, policy advisors, donors and other stakeholders involved in preparedness for providing evidence based and illustrative information on health care resource capacities during future pandemics. The tool can inform both preparedness plans and simulation exercises and can help increase the general understanding of dynamics in resource capacities during a pandemic. The combination of a mathematical model with multiple resources and the linkage to GIS for creating maps makes the tool unique compared to other available software.


Assuntos
Planejamento em Desastres/organização & administração , Alocação de Recursos para a Atenção à Saúde/métodos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Software , Ásia/epidemiologia , Simulação por Computador , Tomada de Decisões , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Administração em Saúde Pública
15.
Public Health Pract (Oxf) ; 4: 100325, 2022 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36246412

RESUMO

Objectives: Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been crucial to reduce transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in many countries including the United Kingdom. A key research priority has been to better understand psychological and social determinants of health behaviours. We aimed to quantify the impact of luck perception on contact and preventive behaviours among adults in the UK, adjusting for key confounders. Study design: A cross-sectional study. Methods: Data were collected between July 28 and August 31, 2020. Luck perception, which refers to a belief whether individual's SARS-CoV-2 infection status is determined by fate or chance, was measured using Chance score, drawing on Health Locus of Control Theory. Self-reporting online questionnaires were administered to obtain participants' contact patterns and frequencies of avoiding crowds, hand washing and wearing a mask. Associations between luck perception and protective behaviours and contact patterns were quantified using regression models. Results: Data from 233 survey respondents were analysed. Chance score was negatively associated with all protective behaviours; avoiding crowds (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.25-0.86, p = 0.02), washing hands (aOR 0.35, 95%CI 0.17-0.70, p = 0.003), and wearing masks (aOR 0.58, 95%CI 0.34-0.99, p = 0.046). For non-physical contacts (with or without distancing), a significant interaction was identified between Chance score and ethnicity. Chance score increased the number of non-physical contacts among white British, an opposite trend was observed for non-white participants. Conclusions: Luck perception during the pandemic may affect individuals' health protection behaviours and contact patterns. Further mechanistic understandings of human behaviours against infectious diseases are indispensable for effective response to future pandemics.

16.
Front Vet Sci ; 9: 915487, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35968008

RESUMO

Background: Improving livestock health is considered critical to address poverty, malnutrition and food insecurity in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Modifications of livestock management practices is also increasingly recognized as an important strategy to mitigate global threats such as climate change and novel disease emergence. Smallholders are, however, under various constraints which prohibit them from altering health practices for livestock and little is known about how the adoption of these practices may be promoted. The proposed scoping review aims to systematically map evidence around "what practices are (not) adopted by smallholders under what circumstances, how and why?." Method and analysis: We conducted initial scoping searches to broadly define types of animal health practices relevant for smallholders in LMICs and formulated search terms. A scoping review protocol was designed and registered. A systematic literature search will be conducted using electronic databases including CAB Abstract, Scopus, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science Core Collection. Gray literature will be searched from AGRIS and Standards for Supporting Agricultural Livelihoods in Emergencies. Articles in English, pertaining to the animal health practices considered highly relevant will be considered eligible for inclusion. Articles will be screened at two stages by two independent reviewers; screening of titles, abstracts, and keywords, followed by full-article screening. The first reviewer will review 100% of the articles at both stages. The second reviewer will review a random sample of 20% of the articles at both stages. Any disagreements will be resolved using inputs from the third reviewer. A thematic analysis will be conducted to catalog contexts and mechanisms for adoption and discussed under a realist framework. Discussion: Understanding of the mechanisms underlying the adoption of animal health practices by livestock smallholders in LMICs is crucial for successful implementation of interventions including those which are based on a One Health approach. This review will identify the extent of this knowledge across disciplines and inform future research priorities for the design of effective and feasible interventions which can contribute toward Sustainable Development Goal 2. Registration: This protocol is registered within the Open Science Framework (https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/FUQAX).

17.
One Health ; 13: 100310, 2021 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34458546

RESUMO

Literature on potential anthropogenic drivers of zoonotic disease risk in the Indian subcontinent is sparse. We conducted a scoping review to identify primary sources, published 2000-2020, to clarify what research exists and on which areas future research should focus. We summarised findings thematically by disease. Of 80 sources included, 78 (98%) were original research articles and two were conference abstracts. Study designs and methods were not always clearly described, but 74 (93%) were quantitative (including one randomised trial), five (6%) were mixed-methods, and one was qualitative. Most sources reported research from India (39%) or Bangladesh (31%), followed by Pakistan (9%), Nepal (9%), Bhutan and Sri Lanka (6% each). Topically, most focused on rabies (18; 23%), Nipah virus (16; 20%) or leptospirosis (11; 14%), while 12 (15%) did not focus on a disease but instead on knowledge in communities. People generally did not seek post-exposure prophylaxis for rabies even when vaccination programmes were available and they understood that rabies was fatal, instead often relying on traditional medicines. Similarly, people did not take precautions to protect themselves from leptospirosis infection, even when they were aware of the link with rice cultivation. Nipah was correlated with presence of bats near human habitation. Official information on diseases, modes of transmission and prevention was lacking, or shared informally between friends, relatives, and neighbours. Behaviour did not correspond to disease knowledge. This review identifies various human behaviours which may drive zoonotic disease risk in the Indian subcontinent. Increasing community knowledge and awareness alone is unlikely to be sufficient to successfully change these behaviours. Further research, using interdisciplinary and participatory methods, would improve understanding of risks and risk perceptions and thus help in co-designing context-specific, relevant interventions.

18.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 3215, 2021 02 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33547388

RESUMO

In Thailand, leptospirosis is primarily associated with those who work in agricultural occupations. Leptospirosis control is hampered by a poor understanding of the complex interactions between humans, animal reservoirs, Leptospira, and the variable spatial environment in which these factors coexist. We aimed to address key knowledge gaps concerning leptospirosis disease dynamics and the human-animal-water-source interface in two high-risk areas in Thailand. We conducted a cross-sectional survey among 746 study participants in two high-risk areas for leptospirosis in Thailand: Sisaket (SSK) and Nakhon Si Thammarat (NST). Interactions among humans, animals and water sources were quantified and analyzed. The presence of different animal species and thus contact patterns were different in NST and SSK. The consumption of water from the shared sources between the two areas was different. Those whose occupations were related to animals or environmental water and those who consumed water from more than two sources were more likely to have been infected with leptospirosis, with adjusted odds ratios 4.31 (95% CI 1.17-15.83) and 10.74 (95% CI 2.28-50.53), respectively. Understanding specific water-source sharing networks and human-animal contact patterns is useful when designing national and area-specific control programmes to prevent and control leptospirosis outbreaks.


Assuntos
Leptospira/isolamento & purificação , Leptospirose/epidemiologia , Adulto , Animais , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fatores de Risco , Tailândia/epidemiologia , Microbiologia da Água
19.
Parasitology ; 137(1): 99-110, 2010 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-19723358

RESUMO

Schistosoma japonicum remains highly endemic in many counties in China and has recently re-emerged, to a large extent, in previously controlled areas. To test the hypothesis that small rodents and less agriculturally important domestic animals such as dogs and cats may play an important role in the transmission and potential re-emergence of this disease, an annual investigation of S. japonicum among humans, domestic animals and rodents, combined with detailed surveys of the snail intermediate host, was performed across 3 marshland villages and 3 hilly villages in Anhui province of China over 2 consecutive years. The highest infection prevalence and intensity observed across all mammals was in rodents in the hilly region; while in the marshland, bovines were suspected as the main reservoirs. However, relatively high infection prevalence levels were also found in dogs and cats in both regions. Such results may have implications for the current human- and bovine-oriented control policy for this medically and veterinarily important disease, particularly within the hilly regions of mainland China.


Assuntos
Animais Domésticos/parasitologia , Animais Selvagens/parasitologia , Reservatórios de Doenças/parasitologia , Schistosoma japonicum , Esquistossomose Japônica/epidemiologia , Caramujos/parasitologia , Animais , Gatos , Bovinos , China/epidemiologia , Cães , Ecossistema , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Contagem de Ovos de Parasitas , Prevalência , Roedores/parasitologia , Schistosoma japonicum/isolamento & purificação , Esquistossomose Japônica/parasitologia , Esquistossomose Japônica/transmissão , Esquistossomose Japônica/veterinária
20.
Lancet Planet Health ; 4(8): e330-e342, 2020 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32800151

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease of global medical and veterinary importance. As efforts to eliminate schistosomiasis as a public health problem and interrupt transmission gather momentum, the potential zoonotic risk posed by livestock Schistosoma species via viable hybridisation in sub-Saharan Africa have been largely overlooked. We aimed to investigate the prevalence, distribution, and multi-host, multiparasite transmission cycle of Haematobium group schistosomiasis in Senegal, West Africa. METHODS: In this epidemiological study, we carried out systematic surveys in definitive hosts (humans, cattle, sheep, and goats) and snail intermediate hosts, in 2016-18, in two areas of Northern Senegal: Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers, where transmission is perennial; and Barkedji and Linguère, where transmission is seasonal. The occurrence and distribution of Schistosoma species and hybrids were assessed by molecular analyses of parasitological specimens obtained from the different hosts. Children in the study villages aged 5-17 years and enrolled in school were selected from school registers. Adults (aged 18-78 years) were self-selecting volunteers. Livestock from the study villages in both areas were also randomly sampled, as were post-mortem samples from local abattoirs. Additionally, five malacological surveys of snail intermediate hosts were carried out at each site in open water sources used by the communities and their animals. FINDINGS: In May to August, 2016, we surveyed 375 children and 20 adults from Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers, and 201 children and 107 adults from Barkedji and Linguère; in October, 2017, to January, 2018, we surveyed 386 children and 88 adults from Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers, and 323 children and 85 adults from Barkedji and Linguère. In Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers the prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis in children was estimated to be 87% (95% CI 80-95) in 2016 and 88% (82-95) in 2017-18. An estimated 63% (in 2016) and 72% (in 2017-18) of infected children were shedding Schistosoma haematobium-Schistosoma bovis hybrids. In adults in Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers, the prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis was estimated to be 79% (52-97) in 2016 and 41% (30-54) in 2017-18, with 88% of infected samples containing S haematobium-S bovis hybrids. In Barkedji and Linguère the prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis in children was estimated to be 30% (23-38) in 2016 and 42% (35-49) in 2017-18, with the proportion of infected children found to be shedding S haematobium-S bovis hybrid miracidia much lower than in Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers (11% in 2016 and 9% in 2017-18). In adults in Barkedji and Linguère, the prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis was estimated to be 26% (17-36) in 2016 and 47% (34-60) in 2017-18, with 10% of infected samples containing S haematobium-S bovis hybrids. The prevalence of S bovis in the sympatric cattle population of Richard Toll and the Lac de Guiers was 92% (80-99), with S bovis also found in sheep (estimated prevalence 14% [5-31]) and goats (15% [5-33]). In Barkedji and Linguère the main schistosome species in livestock was Schistosoma curassoni, with an estimated prevalence of 73% (48-93) in sheep, 84% (61-98) in goats and 8% (2-24) in cattle. S haematobium-S bovis hybrids were not found in livestock. In Richard Toll and Lac de Guiers 35% of infected Bulinus spp snail intermediate hosts were found to be shedding S haematobium-S bovis hybrids (68% shedding S haematobium; 17% shedding S bovis); however, no snails were found to be shedding S haematobium hybrids in Barkedji and Linguère (29% shedding S haematobium; 71% shedding S curassoni). INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that hybrids originate in humans via zoonotic spillover from livestock populations, where schistosomiasis is co-endemic. Introgressive hybridisation, evolving host ranges, and wider ecosystem contexts could affect the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis and other pathogens, demonstrating the need to consider control measures within a One Health framework. FUNDING: Zoonoses and Emerging Livestock Systems programme (UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, UK Department for International Development, UK Economic and Social Research Council, UK Medical Research Council, UK Natural Environment Research Council, and UK Defence Science and Technology Laboratory).


Assuntos
Doenças dos Bovinos/epidemiologia , Doenças das Cabras/epidemiologia , Schistosoma/fisiologia , Esquistossomose/epidemiologia , Esquistossomose/veterinária , Doenças dos Ovinos/epidemiologia , Caramujos/parasitologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Distribuição Animal , Animais , Bovinos , Doenças dos Bovinos/parasitologia , Doenças dos Bovinos/transmissão , Criança , Feminino , Doenças das Cabras/parasitologia , Doenças das Cabras/transmissão , Cabras , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Saúde Única , Prevalência , Schistosoma haematobium/fisiologia , Esquistossomose/parasitologia , Esquistossomose/transmissão , Senegal/epidemiologia , Ovinos , Doenças dos Ovinos/parasitologia , Doenças dos Ovinos/transmissão , Carneiro Doméstico , Adulto Jovem
SELEÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIAS
DETALHE DA PESQUISA