The potential health impact of restricting less-healthy food and beverage advertising on UK television between 05.30 and 21.00 hours: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Restrictions on the advertising of less-healthy foods and beverages is seen as one measure to tackle childhood obesity and is under active consideration by the UK government. Whilst evidence increasingly links this advertising to excess calorie intake, understanding of the potential impact of advertising restrictions on population health is limited. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a proportional multi-state life table model to estimate the health impact of prohibiting the advertising of food and beverages high in fat, sugar, and salt (HFSS) from 05.30 hours to 21.00 hours (5:30 AM to 9:00 PM) on television in the UK. We used the following data to parameterise the model: children's exposure to HFSS advertising from AC Nielsen and Broadcasters' Audience Research Board (2015); effect of less-healthy food advertising on acute caloric intake in children from a published meta-analysis; population numbers and all-cause mortality rates from the Human Mortality Database for the UK (2015); body mass index distribution from the Health Survey for England (2016); disability weights for estimating disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease Study; and healthcare costs from NHS England programme budgeting data. The main outcome measures were change in the percentage of the children (aged 5-17 years) with obesity defined using the International Obesity Task Force cut-points, and change in health status (DALYs). Monte Carlo analyses was used to estimate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We estimate that if all HFSS advertising between 05.30 hours and 21.00 hours was withdrawn, UK children (n = 13,729,000), would see on average 1.5 fewer HFSS adverts per day and decrease caloric intake by 9.1 kcal (95% UI 0.5-17.7 kcal), which would reduce the number of children (aged 5-17 years) with obesity by 4.6% (95% UI 1.4%-9.5%) and with overweight (including obesity) by 3.6% (95% UI 1.1%-7.4%) This is equivalent to 40,000 (95% UI 12,000-81,000) fewer UK children with obesity, and 120,000 (95% UI 34,000-240,000) fewer with overweight. For children alive in 2015 (n = 13,729,000), this would avert 240,000 (95% UI 65,000-530,000) DALYs across their lifetime (i.e., followed from 2015 through to death), and result in a health-related net monetary benefit of £7.4 billion (95% UI £2.0 billion-£16 billion) to society. Under a scenario where all HFSS advertising is displaced to after 21.00 hours, rather than withdrawn, we estimate that the benefits would be reduced by around two-thirds. This is a modelling study and subject to uncertainty; we cannot fully and accurately account for all of the factors that would affect the impact of this policy if implemented. Whilst randomised trials show that children exposed to less-healthy food advertising consume more calories, there is uncertainty about the nature of the dose-response relationship between HFSS advertising and calorie intake. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that HFSS television advertising restrictions between 05.30 hours and 21.00 hours in the UK could make a meaningful contribution to reducing childhood obesity. We estimate that the impact on childhood obesity of this policy may be reduced by around two-thirds if adverts are displaced to after 21.00 hours rather than being withdrawn.

Front of pack nutritional labelling schemes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of recent evidence relating to objectively measured consumption and purchasing.

BACKGROUND: Front of pack labelling (FOPL) provides visible nutritional information and appears to influence knowledge and reformulation. However, a recent Cochrane review found limited and inconsistent evidence for behaviour change. The present review aimed to examine studies published subsequent the Cochrane review, focusing on prepackaged foods, examining the impact of FOPL on purchasing and consumption. METHODS: Controlled experimental/intervention and interrupted time series (ITS) studies were included, with no age/geography restrictions. Exposures were FOPL with objectively measured consumption/purchasing outcomes. Thirteen databases were searched (January 2017 to April 2019) and forward citation searching was undertaken on the included studies. Purchasing data from experimental studies were meta-analysed. Two series of meta-analyses were undertaken; combined FOPL versus no-FOPL and specific FOPL scheme versus no-FOPL. Outcomes were sugar (g 100 g-1 ), calories (kcal 100 g-1 ), saturated fat (g 100 g-1 ) and sodium (mg 100 g-1 ). RESULTS: We identified 14 studies, reporting consumption (experimental; n = 3) and purchasing (n = 8, experimental; n = 3, ITS). Meta-analysis of experimental studies showed sugar and sodium content of purchases was lower for combined FOPL versus no-FOPL (-0.40 g sugar 100 g-1 , P < 0.01; -24.482 mg sodium 100 g-1 , P = 0.012), with a trend for lower energy and saturated fat (-2.03 kcal 100 g-1 , P = 0.08; -0.154 g saturated fat 100 g-1 , P = 0.091). For specific FOPL, products purchased by 'high in' FOPL groups had lower sugar (-0.67 g sugar 100 g-1 , P ≤ 0.01), calories (-4.43 kcal 100 g-1 , P < 0.05), sodium (-33.78 mg 100 g-1 , P = 0.01) versus no-FOPL; Multiple Traffic Light had lower sodium (-34.94 mg 100 g-1 , P < 0.01) versus no-FOPL. Findings regarding consumption were limited and inconsistent. FOPL resulted in healthier purchasing in ITS studies. CONCLUSIONS: This review provides evidence from experimental and 'real-life' studies indicating that FOPL encourages healthier food purchasing. PROSPERO CRD42019135743.

Violence-related ambulance call-outs in the North West of England: a cross-sectional analysis of nature, extent and relationships to temporal, celebratory and sporting events.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to explore the potential of ambulance call-out data in understanding violence to inform about prevention activity. METHOD: This cross-sectional (2013-2015) study examined the nature, extent and characteristics of violence-related ambulance call-outs (n=15 687) across North West England and relationships with temporal, celebratory and sporting events. RESULTS: The majority of call-outs were for men, with a mean age of 33 years. Most call-outs were to deprived (64.4%) and urban (65.4%) areas and occurred at night (18:00-5:59; 75.2%). Three-quarters (77.3%) were recorded as assault/sexual assault and 22.7% stab/gunshot/penetrating trauma. Significant differences in call-out characteristics were identified between the two violence types. Generalised linear modelling found that call-outs significantly increased on weekends, New Year's Eve and weekday bank holiday eves (except for stab/gunshot/penetrating trauma). No significant associations between all violence call-outs, the two violence categories and sporting or celebration events were identified. Two-thirds (66.1%) of the call-outs were transferred to another health service for further assessment and/or treatment. The odds of being transferred were significantly higher among men (adjusted OR (AOR) 1.5, 95%CI 1.4 to 1.6), those aged 13-24 years (AOR 1.2, 95%CI 1.0 to 1.4), call-outs for stab/gunshot/penetrating trauma (AOR 1.4, 95%CI 1.3 to 1.5) and call-outs on Fridays/Saturdays (AOR 1.1, 95%CI 1.0 to 1.2) and lower for call-outs on New Year's Eve (AOR 0.6, 95%CI 0.4 to 0.9). CONCLUSION: Ambulance call-out data can provide a wealth of information to understand violence and subsequently inform about violence prevention and response activity. Ambulance services and staff could play a key role in preventing violence through sharing data and identifying and supporting victims.

Assessing the impact of obesity interventions in the early years: a systematic review of UK-based studies.

OBJECTIVES: Childhood obesity rates in the UK are high. The early years of childhood are critical for establishing healthy behaviours and offer interventional opportunities. We aimed to identify studies evaluating the impact of UK-based obesity interventions in early childhood. DESIGN: Systematic review using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. DATA SOURCES: Nine databases were searched in March 2023. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: We included UK-based obesity intervention studies delivered to children aged 6 months to 5 years that had diet and/or physical activity components and reported anthropometric outcomes. The primary outcome of interest was z-score Body Mass Index (zBMI) change (within and between subjects). Studies evaluating the effects of breastfeeding interventions were not included as obesity prevention interventions, given that best-practice formula feeding is also likely to encourage healthy growth. The publication date for studies was limited to the previous 12 years (2011-23), as earlier reviews found few evaluations of interventions in the UK. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: The reviewers worked independently using standardised approach to search, screen and code the included studies. Risk of bias was assessed using Cochrane tools (ROB 2 or ROBINS-I). RESULTS: Six trials (five studies) were identified, including two randomised controlled trials (RCT), one cluster randomised trial (CRT), two feasibility CRTs and one impact assessment. The total number of participants was 566. Three trials focused on disadvantaged families and two included high-risk children categorised as having overweight or obesity. Compared with baseline, five interventions reported reductions in zBMI, three of which were statistically significant (p<0.05). Compared with control, five interventions showed zBMI reductions, one of which was significant. Only two trials were followed up beyond 12 months. All studies were found to have a high risk of bias. Meta-analysis was not possible due to the heterogeneity of studies. CONCLUSION: UK evidence was limited but some interventions showed promising results in promoting healthy growth. As part of a programme of policies, interventions in the early years may have an important role in reducing the risk of childhood obesity. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021290676.

Estimating the effects of preventive and weight-management interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in England: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The effects of the systematic delivery of treatments for obesity are unknown. We aimed to estimate the potential effects on the prevalence of childhood obesity of systematically offering preventive and treatment interventions to eligible children in England, based on weight or health status. METHODS: For this modelling study, we developed a cross-sectional simulation model of the child and young adult population in England using data from multiple years of the Health Survey of England conducted between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2019. Individuals were assessed for eligibility via age, BMI, and medical complications. Weight status was defined based on clinical criteria used by the UK National Institute of Health and Care Excellence. Published systematic reviews were used to estimate effect sizes for treatments, uptake, and completion for each weight-management tier. We used all available evidence, including evidence from studies that showed an unfavourable effect. We estimated the effects of two systematic approaches: a staged approach, in which children and young people were simultaneously given the most intensive treatment for which they were eligible, and a stepped approach, in which each management tier was applied sequentially, with additive effects. The primary outcomes were estimated prevalence of clinical obesity, defined as a BMI ≥98th centile on the UK90 growth chart, and difference in comparison with the estimated baseline prevalence. FINDINGS: 18 080 children and young people were included in the analytical sample. Baseline prevalence of clinical obesity was estimated to be 11·2% (95% CI 10·5 to 11·8) for children and young people aged 2-18 years. In modelling, we estimated absolute decreases in the prevalence of obesity of 0·9% (95% CI 0·1 to 1·8) for universal, preventive interventions; 0·2% (0·1 to 0·4) for interventions within a primary-care setting; 1·0% (0·1 to 2·1) for community and lifestyle interventions; 0·2% (0·0 to 0·4) for pharmaceutical interventions; and 0·4% (0·1 to 0·7) for surgical interventions. Staged care was estimated to result in an absolute decrease in the prevalence of obesity of 1·3% (-0·3 to 2·4) and stepped care was estimated to lead to an absolute decrease of 2·4% (0·1 to 4·8). INTERPRETATION: Although individual effect sizes for prevention and treatment interventions were small, when delivered at scale across England, these interventions have the potential to meaningfully contribute to reducing the prevalence of childhood obesity. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Secondary Outcomes of a Front-of-Pack-Labelling Randomised Controlled Experiment in a Representative British Sample: Understanding, Ranking Speed and Perceptions.

Front-of-pack labels (FOPLs) provide simplified nutritional information that aims to inform consumer choice and encourage reformulation. We conducted an online randomised controlled experiment on a representative British sample to test the effectiveness of FOPLs across a range of outcomes. The primary outcomes have been published; here, we present the secondary outcomes: the ability to rank the healthiest product and the time to complete the rankings by comparing the FOPL groups and a no-label control, as well as a descriptive analysis of the perceptions. Participants from the NatCen panel were randomised to one of five experimental groups (Multiple Traffic Lights; Nutri-Score; Warning Label; Positive Choice tick; no-label control). Six food/drink categories were selected (pizza, drinks, cakes, crisps, yoghurts, breakfast cereals), and three products were created with varying healthiness. The participants (analytic sample = 4530) were asked to rank the products in order of healthiness twice (baseline: no label; follow-up: experimental group label). Compared to the control, the probability of correctly ranking the healthiest product at follow-up was significantly greater for the N-S, MTL and WL across all products. The time to correctly complete the ranking was fastest for the N-S, PC and no-label control. The descriptive analysis showed that the FOPLs were perceived favourably, and especially N-S and MTL. The findings were supportive of the primary analyses, with those results suggesting that N-S performed the best, and then MTL.

The impact on dietary outcomes of licensed and brand equity characters in marketing unhealthy foods to children: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Licensed and brand equity characters are used to target children in the marketing of products high in fat, salt, and sugar (HFSS), but the impact of characters on dietary outcomes is unclear. The primary aim of this review was to quantify the impact of both licensed and brand equity characters on children's dietary outcomes given that existing regulations often differentiates between these character types. We systematically searched eight interdisciplinary databases and included studies from 2009 onwards until August 2021, including all countries and languages. Participants were children under 16 years, exposure was marketing for HFSS product with a character, and the outcomes were dietary consumption, preference, or purchasing behaviors of HFSS products. Data allowed for meta-analysis of taste preferences. A total of 16 articles (including 20 studies) met the inclusion criteria, of which five were included in the meta-analysis. Under experimental conditions, the use of characters on HFSS packaging compared with HFSS packaging with no character was found to result in significantly higher taste preference for HFSS products (standardized mean difference on a 5-point scale 0.273; p < 0.001). Narrative findings supported this, with studies reporting impact of both character types on product preferences including food liking and snack choice. There was limited evidence on the impact on purchase behaviors and consumption. These findings are supportive of policies that limit the exposure of HFSS food marketing using characters to children.

Is it possible to model the impact of calorie-reduction interventions on childhood obesity at a population level and across the range of deprivation: Evidence from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC).

BACKGROUND: Simulated interventions using observational data have the potential to inform policy and public health interventions where randomised controlled trials are not feasible. National childhood obesity policy is one such area. Overweight and obesity are primarily caused by energy-rich and low-nutrient diets that contribute to a positive net energy imbalance. Using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), we investigated whether causal modelling techniques could be applied to simulate the potential impact of policy-relevant calorie-reduction interventions on population prevalence and inequalities in obesity in childhood. METHODS: Predicted probabilities of obesity at age 11 (UK90 cut offs) were estimated from logistic marginal structural models (MSM) accounting for observed calorie consumption at age 7 and confounding, overall and by maternal occupational social class. A series of population intervention scenarios were modelled to simulate daily calorie-reduction interventions that differed in effectiveness, targeting mechanism and programme uptake level. RESULTS: The estimated effect of maternal social class on obesity after accounting for confounding and observed calorie intake was provided by the controlled direct effect (CDE), in which, 18.3% of children were living with obesity at age 11 years,. A universal simulation to lower median intake to the estimated average requirement (EAR) (a 6.1% reduction in daily calories) with 75% uptake reduced overall obesity prevalence by 0.6%; there was little impact on inequalities. A targeted intervention to limit consumption to the EAR for children with above average intake reduced population obesity prevalence at 11 years by 1.5% but inequalities remained broadly unchanged. A targeted intervention for children of low-income families reduced prevalence by 0.7% and was found to slightly reduce inequalities. CONCLUSIONS: MSMs allow estimation of effects of simulated calorie-reduction interventions on childhood obesity prevalence and inequalities, although estimates are limited by the accuracy of reported calorie intake. Further work is needed to understand causal pathways and opportunities for intervention. Nevertheless, simulated intervention techniques have promise for informing national policy where experimental data are not available.

The Impact on Dietary Outcomes of Celebrities and Influencers in Marketing Unhealthy Foods to Children: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Celebrities, including influencers, are commonly used to market products that are high in fat, sugar, and salt (HFSS) to children but the impact on dietary outcomes has been unclear. The primary aim of this study was to systematically review the literature and quantify the impact of celebrities in HFSS marketing on children's dietary outcomes. We searched eight databases and included studies from all countries and languages published from 2009 until August 2021. Participants were defined as under 16 years, exposure was marketing for HFSS products with a celebrity, and the outcomes were dietary preference, purchasing behaviors, and consumption of HFSS products. We were able to conduct a meta-analysis for consumption outcomes. Seven articles met the inclusion criteria, of which three were included in the meta-analysis. Under experimental conditions, the use of celebrities in HFSS marketing compared to non-food marketing was found to significantly increase consumption of the marketed HFSS product by 56.4 kcals (p = 0.021). There was limited evidence on the impact on preference or purchase intentions and on the comparisons between use and non-use of celebrities and influencers.

Advertising and Young People's Critical Reasoning Abilities: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Young people are exposed to an abundance of advertising for unhealthy products (eg, unhealthy foods, tobacco, alcohol). Because of their developing cognition, children may not be able to understand the intent of advertising. However, advertising restrictions often assume that adolescents have critical reasoning capacity and can resist the effects of advertising. This review seeks to assess whether the evidence supports this assumption. METHODS: Ten databases were searched in December 2020. Inclusion criteria were participants aged 6 to 17 years, any advertising exposure, objectively measured understanding or attitudinal outcome, a comparison, control, and between-group comparison. This study included all languages and excluded studies published pre-2010. Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed study quality. RESULTS: Thirty-eight articles were included. Meta-analysis of 9 studies with attitudinal outcomes indicated that unhealthy product advertising generated more positive brand or product attitudes compared with neutral or no advertising control in all ages. There were significant effects for digital and nondigital advertising formats. We found greater understanding did not protect against the impact of advertising on brand or product attitudes. Limitations include the inability to meta-analyze the impact of advertising on understanding or the influence of age. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence shows that the attitudes of young people were influenced by advertising. Critical reasoning abilities did not appear to be fully developed during adolescence and not found to be protective against the impact of advertising. Policymakers should ensure regulations to restrict marketing of unhealthy commodities protects adolescents as well as younger children.

School Closures During Social Lockdown and Mental Health, Health Behaviors, and Well-being Among Children and Adolescents During the First COVID-19 Wave: A Systematic Review.

IMPORTANCE: School closures as part of broader social lockdown measures during the COVID-19 pandemic may be associated with the health and well-being of children and adolescents. OBJECTIVE: To review published reports on the association of school closures during broader social lockdown with mental health, health behaviors, and well-being in children and adolescents aged 0 to 19 years, excluding associations with transmission of infection. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Eleven databases were searched from inception to September 2020, and machine learning was applied for screening articles. A total of 16 817 records were screened, 151 were reviewed in full text, and 36 studies were included. Quality assessment was tailored to study type. A narrative synthesis of results was undertaken because data did not allow meta-analysis. FINDINGS: A total of 36 studies from 11 countries were identified, involving a total of 79 781 children and adolescents and 18 028 parents, which occurred during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (February to July 2020). All evaluated school closure as part of broader social lockdown during the first COVID-19 wave, and the duration of school closure ranged from 1 week to 3 months. Of those, 9 (25%) were longitudinal pre-post studies, 5 (14%) were cohort, 21 (58%) were cross-sectional, and 1 (3%) was a modeling study. Thirteen studies (36%) were high quality, 17 (47%) were medium quality, and 6 (17%) were low quality. Twenty-three studies (64%) were published, 8 (22%) were online reports, and 5 (14%) were preprints. Twenty-five studies (69%) concerning mental health identified associations across emotional, behavioral, and restlessness/inattention problems; 18% to 60% of children and adolescents scored above risk thresholds for distress, particularly anxiety and depressive symptoms, and 2 studies reported no significant association with suicide. Three studies reported that child protection referrals were lower than expected number of referrals originating in schools. Three studies suggested higher screen time usage, 2 studies reported greater social media use, and 6 studies reported lower physical activity. Studies on sleep (10 studies) and diet (5 studies) provided inconclusive evidence on harms. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this narrative synthesis of reports from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, studies of short-term school closures as part of social lockdown measures reported adverse mental health symptoms and health behaviors among children and adolescents. Associations between school closure and health outcomes and behaviors could not be separated from broader lockdown measures.

Modeling the impact of calorie-reduction interventions on population prevalence and inequalities in childhood obesity in the Southampton Women's Survey.

BACKGROUND: In the United Kingdom, rates of childhood obesity are high and inequalities in obesity have widened in recent years. Children with obesity face heightened risks of living with obesity as adults and suffering from associated morbidities. Addressing population prevalence and inequalities in childhood obesity is a key priority for public health policymakers in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. Where randomized controlled trials are not possible, potential policy actions can be simulated using causal modeling techniques. OBJECTIVES: Using data from the Southampton Women's Survey (SWS), a cohort with high quality dietary and lifestyle data, the potential impact of policy-relevant calorie-reduction interventions on population prevalence and inequalities of childhood obesity was investigated. METHODS: Predicted probabilities of obesity (using UK90 cut-offs) at age 6-7 years were estimated from logistic marginal structural models adjusting for observed calorie consumption at age 3 years (using food diaries) and confounding. A series of policy-relevant intervention scenarios were modeled to simulate reductions in energy intake (differing in effectiveness, the targeting mechanisms, and level of uptake). RESULTS: At age 6-7 years, 8.3% of children were living with obesity, after accounting for observed energy intake and confounding. A universal intervention to lower median energy intake to the estimated average requirement (a 13% decrease), with an uptake of 75%, reduced obesity prevalence by 1% but relative and absolute inequalities remained broadly unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: Simulated interventions substantially reduced population prevalence of obesity, which may be useful in informing policymakers.

Assessing the Effectiveness of Front of Pack Labels: Findings from an Online Randomised-Controlled Experiment in a Representative British Sample.

Front of pack food labels (FOPLs) provide accessible nutritional information to guide consumer choice. Using an online experiment with a large representative British sample, we aimed to examine whether FOPLs improve participants' ability to identify the healthiness of foods and drinks. The primary aim was to compare ability to rank between FOPL groups and a no label control. Adults (≥18 years), recruited from the NatCen panel, were randomised to one of five experimental groups (Multiple Traffic Light, MTL; Nutri-Score, N-S; Warning Label, WL; Positive Choice tick, PC; no label control). Stratification variables were year of recruitment to panel, sex, age, government office region, and household income. Packaging images were created for three versions, varying in healthiness, of six food and drink products (pizza, drinks, cakes, crisps, yoghurts, breakfast cereals). Participants were asked to rank the three product images in order of healthiness. Ranking was completed on a single occasion and comprised a baseline measure (with no FOPL), and a follow-up measure including the FOPL as per each participant's experimental group. The primary outcome was the ability to accurately rank product healthiness (all products ranked correctly vs. any incorrect). In 2020, 4504 participants had complete data and were included in the analysis. The probability of correct ranking at follow-up, and improving between baseline and follow-up, was significantly greater across all products for the N-S, MTL and WL groups, compared to control. This was seen for only some of the products for the PC group. The largest effects were seen for N-S, followed by MTL. These analyses were adjusted for stratification variables, ethnicity, education, household composition, food shopping responsibility, and current FOPL use. Exploratory analyses showed a tendency for participants with higher compared to lower education to rank products more accurately. Conclusions: All FOPLs were effective at improving participants' ability to correctly rank products according to healthiness in this large representative British sample, with the largest effects seen for N-S, followed by MTL.

Do school closures and school reopenings affect community transmission of COVID-19? A systematic review of observational studies.

OBJECTIVES: To systematically reivew the observational evidence of the effect of school closures and school reopenings on SARS-CoV-2 community transmission. SETTING: Schools (including early years settings, primary schools and secondary schools). INTERVENTION: School closures and reopenings. OUTCOME MEASURE: Community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (including any measure of community infections rate, hospital admissions or mortality attributed to COVID-19). METHODS: On 7 January 2021, we searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, CINAHL, the WHO Global COVID-19 Research Database, ERIC, the British Education Index, the Australian Education Index and Google, searching title and abstracts for terms related to SARS-CoV-2 AND terms related to schools or non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We used the Cochrane Risk of Bias In Non-randomised Studies of Interventions tool to evaluate bias. RESULTS: We identified 7474 articles, of which 40 were included, with data from 150 countries. Of these, 32 studies assessed school closures and 11 examined reopenings. There was substantial heterogeneity between school closure studies, with half of the studies at lower risk of bias reporting reduced community transmission by up to 60% and half reporting null findings. The majority (n=3 out of 4) of school reopening studies at lower risk of bias reported no associated increases in transmission. CONCLUSIONS: School closure studies were at risk of confounding and collinearity from other non-pharmacological interventions implemented around the same time as school closures, and the effectiveness of closures remains uncertain. School reopenings, in areas of low transmission and with appropriate mitigation measures, were generally not accompanied by increasing community transmission. With such varied evidence on effectiveness, and the harmful effects, policymakers should take a measured approach before implementing school closures; and should look to reopen schools in times of low transmission, with appropriate mitigation measures.

Susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Children and Adolescents Compared With Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Importance: The degree to which children and adolescents are infected by and transmit severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is unclear. The role of children and adolescents in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is dependent on susceptibility, symptoms, viral load, social contact patterns, and behavior. Objective: To systematically review the susceptibility to and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among children and adolescents compared with adults. Data Sources: PubMed and medRxiv were searched from database inception to July 28, 2020, and a total of 13 926 studies were identified, with additional studies identified through hand searching of cited references and professional contacts. Study Selection: Studies that provided data on the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in children and adolescents (younger than 20 years) compared with adults (20 years and older) derived from contact tracing or population screening were included. Single-household studies were excluded. Data Extraction and Synthesis: PRISMA guidelines for abstracting data were followed, which was performed independently by 2 reviewers. Quality was assessed using a critical appraisal checklist for prevalence studies. Random-effects meta-analysis was undertaken. Main Outcomes and Measures: Secondary infection rate (contact-tracing studies) or prevalence or seroprevalence (population screening studies) among children and adolescents compared with adults. Results: A total of 32 studies comprising 41 640 children and adolescents and 268 945 adults met inclusion criteria, including 18 contact-tracing studies and 14 population screening studies. The pooled odds ratio of being an infected contact in children compared with adults was 0.56 (95% CI, 0.37-0.85), with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 94.6%). Three school-based contact-tracing studies found minimal transmission from child or teacher index cases. Findings from population screening studies were heterogenous and were not suitable for meta-analysis. Most studies were consistent with lower seroprevalence in children compared with adults, although seroprevalence in adolescents appeared similar to adults. Conclusions and Relevance: In this meta-analysis, there is preliminary evidence that children and adolescents have lower susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2, with an odds ratio of 0.56 for being an infected contact compared with adults. There is weak evidence that children and adolescents play a lesser role than adults in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at a population level. This study provides no information on the infectivity of children.

Definition of Tumor Bed Boost in Oncoplastic Breast Surgery: An Understanding and Approach.

INTRODUCTION: Definition of the tumor bed (TB) is currently guided by intraoperatively placed metal clips. However, this traditional planning method may not be sufficient for tumor cavity defect refilled with modern oncoplastic breast surgery. We explored the impact of a close cooperation between surgeon and oncologist on the accuracy of TB contouring after partial breast reconstruction with chest wall perforator flaps (CWPF). PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective review of patients who received radiotherapy after CWPF was performed. TB and boost volume were defined by the surgeon, considering clips and the typical radiologic appearance of the flap, and by a radiation oncologist, and results were compared with the surgical specimen volume (SPV). The boost volume was marked as 5 mm penumbral ring thickness of native breast tissue wall around the replaced flap (nonbreast tissue). RESULTS: There were no significant differences between SPV and surgeon-defined TB values. Conversely, the radiation oncologist-defined values were significantly smaller than the actual SPV. If a ring-shaped TB boost was delivered, this would have allowed a potential reduction of irradiated tissue of 127.6%. CONCLUSION: TB definition solely by surgical clips may be prone to inaccuracy in case of volume replacement oncoplastic breast surgery. Our approach of combining the clips with the redefinition of the flap on computed tomographic scan may provide more accurate TB definition. Although an ideal ring-shaped boost might be difficult to reproduce in practice, it introduces a new paradigm: a lower radiation dose inside TB is tolerable, if not desirable, at least in CWPF.

Risk factors for disruptive behaviours: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of quasi-experimental evidence.

INTRODUCTION: Disruptive behaviour disorders, including oppositional defiant disorder and conduct disorder, are a common set of diagnoses in childhood and adolescence, with global estimates of 5.7%, 3.6% and 2.1% for any disruptive disorder, oppositional defiant disorder and conduct disorder, respectively. There are high economic and social costs associated with disruptive behaviours and the prevalence of these disorders has increased in recent years. As such, disruptive behaviours represent an escalating major public health concern and it is important to understand what factors may influence the risk of these behaviours. Such research would inform interventions that aim to prevent the development of disruptive behaviours. The current review will identify the most stringent evidence of putative risk factors for disruptive behaviour from quasi-experimental studies, which enable stronger causal inference. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The review will be carried out according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. An electronic search of references published between 1 January 1980 and 1 March 2020 will be conducted using Medline, Embase, PsycINFO and Web of Science. Initial abstract and title screening, full-text screening and data extraction will be completed independently by two reviewers using Evidence for Policy and Practice Information (EPPI)-Reviewer 4 software. Quasi-experimental studies in the English language examining the association between any putative risk factor and a clearly defined measure of disruptive behaviour (eg, a validated questionnaire measure) will be included. We will conduct meta-analyses if we can pool a minimum of three similar studies with the same or similar exposures and outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The proposed review does not require ethical approval. The results will help to identify risk factors for which there is strong evidence of causal effects on disruptive behaviours and also highlight potential risk factors that require further research. The findings will be disseminated via publication in a peer-reviewed scientific journal and through presentations at international meetings and conferences. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020169313.

Obesity prevention in the early years: A mapping study of national policies in England from a behavioural science perspective.

BACKGROUND: Evidence indicates that early life is critical for determining future obesity risk. A sharper policy focus on pregnancy and early childhood could help improve obesity prevention efforts. This study aimed to systematically identify and categorise policy levers used in England with potential to influence early life course (pregnancy, 0-5 years) and identify how these interface with energy balance behaviours. The objective is to identify gaps and where further policy actions could most effectively focus. METHODS: A behavioural science approach was taken using the Capability-Opportunity-Motivation-Behaviour (COM-B) model and Behaviour Change Wheel (BCW) framework. The key determinants of energy balance in the early years were identified from the Foresight Systems Map. Policy actions were scoped systematically from available literature, including any health or non-health policies which could impact on energy balance behaviours. Foresight variables and policy actions were considered in terms of COM-B and the BCW to determine approaches likely to be effective for obesity prevention and treatment. Existing policies were overlaid across the map of key risk factors to identify gaps in obesity prevention and treatment provision. RESULTS: A wide range of policy actions were identified (n = 115) to address obesity-relevant risk factors. These were most commonly educational or guidelines relating to environmental restructuring (i.e. changing the physical or social context). Scope for strengthening policies relating to the food system (e.g. the market price of food) and psychological factors contributing to obesity were identified. Policies acted via all aspects of the COM-B model, but there was scope for improving policies to increase capability through skills acquisition and both reflective and automatic motivation. CONCLUSIONS: There is substantial policy activity to address early years obesity but much is focused on education. Scope exists to strengthen actions relating to upstream policies which act on food systems and those targeting psychological factors contributing to obesity risk.

School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review.

In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, 107 countries had implemented national school closures by March 18, 2020. It is unknown whether school measures are effective in coronavirus outbreaks (eg, due to severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS], Middle East respiratory syndrome, or COVID-19). We undertook a systematic review by searching three electronic databases to identify what is known about the effectiveness of school closures and other school social distancing practices during coronavirus outbreaks. We included 16 of 616 identified articles. School closures were deployed rapidly across mainland China and Hong Kong for COVID-19. However, there are no data on the relative contribution of school closures to transmission control. Data from the SARS outbreak in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic. Modelling studies of SARS produced conflicting results. Recent modelling studies of COVID-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2-4% of deaths, much less than other social distancing interventions. Policy makers need to be aware of the equivocal evidence when considering school closures for COVID-19, and that combinations of social distancing measures should be considered. Other less disruptive social distancing interventions in schools require further consideration if restrictive social distancing policies are implemented for long periods.

Small cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder: a 15-year retrospective review of treatment and survival in the Anglian Cancer Network.

OBJECTIVE: To report the clinical experience and management of patients with small cell carcinoma (SCC) of the bladder, treated in the Anglia Cancer network from 1992 to 2007, and to review published studies, as SCC is a rare condition, accounting for <1% of all bladder tumours, and there is no established treatment strategy for managing these patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analysed retrospectively data from all patients diagnosed with SCC of the urinary bladder between 1992 and 2007, with an emphasis on stage, treatment and overall survival. RESULTS: Twenty patients were identified with primary bladder SCC (male: female ratio 3:1; mean age 68 years; mean follow-up 15.8 months). Nine patients (45%) had extensive-stage disease at diagnosis. Four patients received best supportive care, three had a radical cystectomy, one radical radiotherapy and six sequential chemo-radiotherapy. In all, 13 patients were treated with chemotherapy, with six receiving cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin and vincristine, three receiving carboplatin and etoposide, and the remainder receiving alternative platinum-based regimens. For 12 patients with assessable disease, six had a complete response, three a partial response and three had progressive disease after chemotherapy. No patient received prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI). At the time of analysis, 14 (70%) patients had died, with one (5%) developing brain metastasis. The median survival was 33 months for patients receiving chemotherapy, vs 3 months with no chemotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: SCC of the bladder tends to occur in an older population, more commonly in men. It is an aggressive tumour with a propensity for early metastasis. The response rate to chemotherapy is high but the overall prognosis is poor. Brain secondaries are less common than for SCC of the lung and currently the role of PCI is unclear. As there is no standard of care for these patients, they are treated according to local protocols. Further efforts should be made to develop more effective treatments and the role of PCI should be assessed in the setting of a clinical trial, in conjunction with other extrapulmonary SCCs.