Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C.

Several coastal ecosystems-most notably mangroves and tidal marshes-exhibit biogenic feedbacks that are facilitating adjustment to relative sea-level rise (RSLR), including the sequestration of carbon and the trapping of mineral sediment1. The stability of reef-top habitats under RSLR is similarly linked to reef-derived sediment accumulation and the vertical accretion of protective coral reefs2. The persistence of these ecosystems under high rates of RSLR is contested3. Here we show that the probability of vertical adjustment to RSLR inferred from palaeo-stratigraphic observations aligns with contemporary in situ survey measurements. A deficit between tidal marsh and mangrove adjustment and RSLR is likely at 4 mm yr-1 and highly likely at 7 mm yr-1 of RSLR. As rates of RSLR exceed 7 mm yr-1, the probability that reef islands destabilize through increased shoreline erosion and wave over-topping increases. Increased global warming from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C would double the area of mapped tidal marsh exposed to 4 mm yr-1 of RSLR by between 2080 and 2100. With 3 °C of warming, nearly all the world's mangrove forests and coral reef islands and almost 40% of mapped tidal marshes are estimated to be exposed to RSLR of at least 7 mm yr-1. Meeting the Paris agreement targets would minimize disruption to coastal ecosystems.

Wetland carbon storage controlled by millennial-scale variation in relative sea-level rise.

Coastal wetlands (mangrove, tidal marsh and seagrass) sustain the highest rates of carbon sequestration per unit area of all natural systems1,2, primarily because of their comparatively high productivity and preservation of organic carbon within sedimentary substrates3. Climate change and associated relative sea-level rise (RSLR) have been proposed to increase the rate of organic-carbon burial in coastal wetlands in the first half of the twenty-first century4, but these carbon-climate feedback effects have been modelled to diminish over time as wetlands are increasingly submerged and carbon stores become compromised by erosion4,5. Here we show that tidal marshes on coastlines that experienced rapid RSLR over the past few millennia (in the late Holocene, from about 4,200 years ago to the present) have on average 1.7 to 3.7 times higher soil carbon concentrations within 20 centimetres of the surface than those subject to a long period of sea-level stability. This disparity increases with depth, with soil carbon concentrations reduced by a factor of 4.9 to 9.1 at depths of 50 to 100 centimetres. We analyse the response of a wetland exposed to recent rapid RSLR following subsidence associated with pillar collapse in an underlying mine and demonstrate that the gain in carbon accumulation and elevation is proportional to the accommodation space (that is, the space available for mineral and organic material accumulation) created by RSLR. Our results suggest that coastal wetlands characteristic of tectonically stable coastlines have lower carbon storage owing to a lack of accommodation space and that carbon sequestration increases according to the vertical and lateral accommodation space6 created by RSLR. Such wetlands will provide long-term mitigating feedback effects that are relevant to global climate-carbon modelling.

The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise.

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world's mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

Mangrove dynamics and blue carbon sequestration.

We monitored coastal wetland vertical accretion, elevation gain and surface carbon (C) at Homebush Bay, Australia over 18 years (2000-2017) in three settings initially characterized by saltmarsh, mixed saltmarsh-mangrove ecotone and mangrove-dominated zones. During this time, the saltmarsh transitioned to mixed saltmarsh-mangrove ecotone, and the mixed saltmarsh-mangrove ecotone transitioned to mangrove, consistent with vegetation transitions observed across the east Australian continent in recent decades. In spite of mangrove recruitment and thickening in the former saltmarsh zone, and the dominance of mangrove root material as a contributing C source, the rate of C accumulation in the former saltmarsh zone did not change over the study period, and there was no significant increase in surface elevation. This contrasted with the response of sites with a longer history of mangrove colonization, which showed strong accretion and C accumulation over the period. The result suggests that the C accumulation and surface elevation gains made as a result of mangrove colonization may not be observable over initial decades, but will be significant in the longer term as forests reach maturity.

Review of the ecosystem service implications of mangrove encroachment into salt marshes.

Salt marsh and mangrove have been recognized as being among the most valuable ecosystem types globally in terms of their supply of ecosystem services and support for human livelihoods. These coastal ecosystems are also susceptible to the impacts of climate change and rising sea levels, with evidence of global shifts in the distribution of mangroves, including encroachment into salt marshes. The encroachment of woody mangrove shrubs and trees into herbaceous salt marshes may represent a substantial change in ecosystem structure, although resulting impacts on ecosystem functions and service provisions are largely unknown. In this review, we assess changes in ecosystem services associated with mangrove encroachment. While there is quantitative evidence to suggest that mangrove encroachment may enhance carbon storage and the capacity of a wetland to increase surface elevation in response to sea-level rise, for most services there has been no direct assessment of encroachment impact. On the basis of current understanding of ecosystem structure and function, we theorize that mangrove encroachment may increase nutrient storage and improve storm protection, but cause declines in habitat availability for fauna requiring open vegetation structure (such as migratory birds and foraging bats) as well as the recreational and cultural activities associated with this fauna (e.g., birdwatching and/or hunting). Changes to provisional services such as fisheries productivity and cultural services are likely to be site specific and dependent on the species involved. We discuss the need for explicit experimental testing of the effects of encroachment on ecosystem services in order to address key knowledge gaps, and present an overview of the options available to coastal resource managers during a time of environmental change.

Seventy years of continuous encroachment substantially increases 'blue carbon' capacity as mangroves replace intertidal salt marshes.

Shifts in ecosystem structure have been observed over recent decades as woody plants encroach upon grasslands and wetlands globally. The migration of mangrove forests into salt marsh ecosystems is one such shift which could have important implications for global 'blue carbon' stocks. To date, attempts to quantify changes in ecosystem function are essentially constrained to climate-mediated pulses (30 years or less) of encroachment occurring at the thermal limits of mangroves. In this study, we track the continuous, lateral encroachment of mangroves into two south-eastern Australian salt marshes over a period of 70 years and quantify corresponding changes in biomass and belowground C stores. Substantial increases in biomass and belowground C stores have resulted as mangroves replaced salt marsh at both marine and estuarine sites. After 30 years, aboveground biomass was significantly higher than salt marsh, with biomass continuing to increase with mangrove age. Biomass increased at the mesohaline river site by 130 ± 18 Mg biomass km(-2)  yr(-1) (mean ± SE), a 2.5 times higher rate than the marine embayment site (52 ± 10 Mg biomass km(-2) yr(-1) ), suggesting local constraints on biomass production. At both sites, and across all vegetation categories, belowground C considerably outweighed aboveground biomass stocks, with belowground C stocks increasing at up to 230 ± 62 Mg C km(-2) yr(-1) (± SE) as mangrove forests developed. Over the past 70 years, we estimate mangrove encroachment may have already enhanced intertidal biomass by up to 283 097 Mg and belowground C stocks by over 500 000 Mg in the state of New South Wales alone. Under changing climatic conditions and rising sea levels, global blue carbon storage may be enhanced as mangrove encroachment becomes more widespread, thereby countering global warming.

Woody plant encroachment of grasslands: a comparison of terrestrial and wetland settings.

A global trend of woody plant encroachment of terrestrial grasslands is co-incident with woody plant encroachment of wetland in freshwater and saline intertidal settings. There are several arguments for considering tree encroachment of wetlands in the context of woody shrub encroachment of grassland biomes. In both cases, delimitation of woody shrubs at regional scales is set by temperature thresholds for poleward extent, and by aridity within temperature limits. Latitudinal expansion has been observed for terrestrial woody shrubs and mangroves, following recent warming, but most expansion and thickening has been due to the occupation of previously water-limited grassland/saltmarsh environments. Increases in atmospheric CO2, may facilitate the recruitment of trees in terrestrial and wetland settings. Improved water relations, a mechanism that would predict higher soil moisture in grasslands and saltmarshes, and also an enhanced capacity to survive arid conditions, reinforces local mechanisms of change. The expansion of woody shrubs and mangroves provides a negative feedback on elevated atmospheric CO2 by increasing carbon sequestration in grassland and saltmarsh, and is a significant carbon sink globally. These broad-scale vegetation shifts may represent a new stable state, reinforced by positive feedbacks between global change drivers and endogenic mechanisms of persistence in the landscape.

Climate phase drives canopy condition in a large semi-arid floodplain forest.

To maintain and restore the ecological integrity of floodplains, allocating water for environmental benefits (i.e. environmental water) is widely practised globally. To efficiently manage the always limited environmental water, there is pressing need to advance our understanding of the ecological response to long-term climate cycles as evidence grows of intensification of extreme climatic events such as severe drought and heat waves. In this study, we assessed the alleviating effects of artificial flooding on drought impact using the canopy condition of the iconic river red gum forests in Australia's Murray Darling Basin (MDB). To achieve this, we jointly analysed spatial-temporal patterns of NDVI response and drought conditions for the period of 2000-2013, during which the MDB experienced an extreme dry-wet cycle. Our results indicated that while NDVI-derived canopy condition was better at the sites receiving environmental water during the dry phases, both watered and unwatered sites displayed great similarity in seasonality and trends. Furthermore, we did not find any significant difference in NDVI response of the canopy between the sites to suggest significant differences in ecosystem stability and resilience, with watered and unwatered sites showing similar responses to the extreme wet conditions as the drought broke. The highly significant relationship between long-term drought index and NDVI anomaly suggest that climate phase is the main forcing driving canopy condition in semi-arid floodplain forests.

How mangrove forests adjust to rising sea level.

Mangroves are among the most well described and widely studied wetland communities in the world. The greatest threats to mangrove persistence are deforestation and other anthropogenic disturbances that can compromise habitat stability and resilience to sea-level rise. To persist, mangrove ecosystems must adjust to rising sea level by building vertically or become submerged. Mangroves may directly or indirectly influence soil accretion processes through the production and accumulation of organic matter, as well as the trapping and retention of mineral sediment. In this review, we provide a general overview of research on mangrove elevation dynamics, emphasizing the role of the vegetation in maintaining soil surface elevations (i.e. position of the soil surface in the vertical plane). We summarize the primary ways in which mangroves may influence sediment accretion and vertical land development, for example, through root contributions to soil volume and upward expansion of the soil surface. We also examine how hydrological, geomorphological and climatic processes may interact with plant processes to influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with rising sea level. We draw on a variety of studies to describe the important, and often under-appreciated, role that plants play in shaping the trajectory of an ecosystem undergoing change.

Mangrove expansion and salt marsh decline at mangrove poleward limits.

Mangroves are species of halophytic intertidal trees and shrubs derived from tropical genera and are likely delimited in latitudinal range by varying sensitivity to cold. There is now sufficient evidence that mangrove species have proliferated at or near their poleward limits on at least five continents over the past half century, at the expense of salt marsh. Avicennia is the most cold-tolerant genus worldwide, and is the subject of most of the observed changes. Avicennia germinans has extended in range along the USA Atlantic coast and expanded into salt marsh as a consequence of lower frost frequency and intensity in the southern USA. The genus has also expanded into salt marsh at its southern limit in Peru, and on the Pacific coast of Mexico. Mangroves of several species have expanded in extent and replaced salt marsh where protected within mangrove reserves in Guangdong Province, China. In south-eastern Australia, the expansion of Avicennia marina into salt marshes is now well documented, and Rhizophora stylosa has extended its range southward, while showing strong population growth within estuaries along its southern limits in northern New South Wales. Avicennia marina has extended its range southwards in South Africa. The changes are consistent with the poleward extension of temperature thresholds coincident with sea-level rise, although the specific mechanism of range extension might be complicated by limitations on dispersal or other factors. The shift from salt marsh to mangrove dominance on subtropical and temperate shorelines has important implications for ecological structure, function, and global change adaptation.

Application of thresholds of potential concern and limits of acceptable change in the condition assessment of a significant wetland.

We propose a framework in which thresholds of potential concern (TPCs) and limits of acceptable change (LACs) are used in concert in the assessment of wetland condition and vulnerability and apply the framework in a case study. The lower Murrumbidgee River floodplain (the 'Lowbidgee') is one of the most ecologically important wetlands in Australia and the focus of intense management intervention by State and Federal government agencies. We used a targeted management stakeholder workshop to identify key values that contribute to the ecological significance of the Lowbidgee floodplain, and identified LACs that, if crossed, would signify the loss of significance. We then used conceptual models linking the condition of these values (wetland vegetation communities, waterbirds, fish species and the endangered southern bell frog) to measurable threat indicators, for which we defined a management goal and a TPC. We applied this framework to data collected across 70 wetland storages', or eco-hydrological units, at the peak of a prolonged drought (2008) and following extensive re-flooding (2010). At the suggestion of water and wetland mangers, we neither aggregated nor integrated indices but reported separately in a series of chloropleth maps. The resulting assessment clearly identified the effect of rewetting in restoring indicators within TPC in most cases, for most storages. The scale of assessment was useful in informing the targeted and timely management intervention and provided a context for retaining and utilising monitoring information in an adaptive management context.

Monitoring long-term vegetation condition dynamics in persistent semi-arid wetland communities using time series of Landsat data.

Wetlands in arid and semi-arid regions are characterized by dry- and wet-phase vegetation expression which responds to variable water resources. Monitoring condition trends in these wetlands is challenging because transitions may be rapid and short-lived, and identification of meaningful condition change requires longitudinal study. Remotely-sensed data provide cost effective, multi-decadal information with sufficient temporal and spatial scale to explore wetland condition. In this study, we used a time series of Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) derived from 34 years (1988-2021) of Landsat imagery, to investigate the long-term condition dynamics of six broad vegetation groups (communities) in a large floodplain wetland system, the Macquarie Marshes in Australia. These communities were persistently mapped as River Red Gum wetland, Black Box/Coolibah woodland, Lignum shrubland, Semi-permanent wetland, Terrestrial grassland and Terrestrial woodland. We used generalized additive models (GAM) to explore the response of vegetation to seasonality, river flow and climatic conditions. We found that EVI was a useful metric to monitor both wetland condition and response to climatic and hydrological drivers. Wetland communities were particularly responsive to river flow and seasonality, while terrestrial communities were responsive to climate and seasonality. Our results indicate asymptotic condition responses, and therefore evidence of hydrological thresholds, by some wetland communities to river flows. We did not observe a long-term trend of declining condition although an apparent increase in condition variability towards the end of the time series requires continued monitoring. Our remotely-sensed, landscape-scale monitoring approach merits further ground validation. We discuss how it can be used to provide a management tool which continuously assesses short and long-term wetland condition and informs conservation decisions about water management for environmental flows.

Evaluating the Application of Portable Handheld X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) Scanner for Determining Seafood Provenance: A Case Study on Penaeus monodon.

Seafood elemental profiling (SEP) is the quantification of a range of elements in seafood products and may serve in addressing questions of seafood provenance and quality. Traditional methods for analyzing soft tissue present several limitations for the industry-level use of SEP. Portable handheld X-ray fluorescence (pXRF) analysis is a promising alternative to conventional methods; however, its application for biological analysis has not been fully established. Intact giant tiger prawn (Penaeus monodon) abdomens were analyzed with a Vanta M series XRF portable analyzer following a novel soft tissue protocol. Exploratory statistics (principal component analysis, nonmetric multidimensional scaling, and canonical discriminant analysis), as well as random forest models, have been implemented with pXRF profiles, yielding 81% accuracy when assigning the geographical origin of P. monodon. The results of this study highlight that SEP via pXRF is a viable industry-level analysis, and its application will depend on improved instrument calibration to account for fluctuating wetness factors that are influenced by cooking, storage, and other pre- and post-harvest treatments.

Developing a MySQL Database for the Provenance of Black Tiger Prawns (Penaeus monodon).

As the demand for seafood increases, so does the incidence of seafood fraud. Confirming provenance of seafood is important to combat fraudulent labelling but requires a database that contains the isotopic and elemental "fingerprints" of authentic seafood samples. Local isotopic and elemental databases can be scaled up or combined with other databases to increase the spatial and species coverage to create a larger database. This study showcases the use of isotopic and elemental fingerprints of the black tiger prawn (Penaeus monodon) to develop a database that can be used to securely store the data necessary for determining provenance. The utility of this database was tested through querying and building seven different datasets that were used to develop models to determine the provenance of P. monodon. The models built using the data retrieved from the database demonstrated that the provenance of P. monodon could be determined with >80% accuracy. As the database was developed using MySQL, it can be scaled up to include additional regions, species, or methodologies depending on the needs of the users. Combining the database with methods of determining provenance will provide regulatory bodies and the seafood industry with another provenance tool to combat fraudulent seafood labelling.

Integrating monthly spring tidal waves into estuarine carbon budget of meta-ecosystems.

The contribution of lateral carbon (C) to hydrological processes is well known for its ecological functions in the estuarine C budget across the terrestrial-aquatic interfaces. However, sampling of individual daily tides during multiple months or seasons in heterogeneous patches of landscape makes extrapolation from days to months or seasons challenging. In this paper, we examine the terrestrial-aquatic lateral hydrological C flux for an estuarine marsh where monthly tides, including consecutive daily spring tides, were measured over the course of an entire year. We found a significant correlation between imported and exported hydrological dissolved C, both dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), although a similar correlation was not found for particulate organic carbon (POC). Based on a total of 44 sampling trips over a year, this saltmarsh appeared to be a net exporter of DOC and DIC but a net sink of POC. Furthermore, the lateral hydrological C budget functioned as a limited lateral C sink in terms of organic C (i.e., ΔPOC and ΔDOC), while the marsh functioned as a small lateral C source. Our findings highlight the importance of lateral hydrologic inflows/outflows in wetland C budgets of land-water interfaces, especially in those characterized by the meta-ecosystem framework. Surprisingly, different C species responded unequally to the lateral hydrological C budget, suggesting that a conceptual realization of meta-ecosystem is a powerful theoretical framework to extend the outwelling hypothesis.

Mangrove reforestation provides greater blue carbon benefit than afforestation for mitigating global climate change.

Significant efforts have been invested to restore mangrove forests worldwide through reforestation and afforestation. However, blue carbon benefit has not been compared between these two silvicultural pathways at the global scale. Here, we integrated results from direct field measurements of over 370 restoration sites around the world to show that mangrove reforestation (reestablishing mangroves where they previously colonized) had a greater carbon storage potential per hectare than afforestation (establishing mangroves where not previously mangrove). Greater carbon accumulation was mainly attributed to favorable intertidal positioning, higher nitrogen availability, and lower salinity at most reforestation sites. Reforestation of all physically feasible areas in the deforested mangrove regions of the world could promote the uptake of 671.5-688.8 Tg CO2-eq globally over a 40-year period, 60% more than afforesting the same global area on tidal flats (more marginal sites). Along with avoiding conflicts of habitat conversion, mangrove reforestation should be given priority when designing nature-based solutions for mitigating global climate change.

Principles for the monitoring and evaluation of wetland extent, condition and function in Australia.

The monitoring of resource condition is receiving renewed attention across several levels of government in Australia. This interest is linked to substantial investment in environmental remediation and aquatic ecosystem restoration in particular. In this context, it is timely to consider principles which ought to guide the development and implementation of monitoring programmes for wetland ecosystems. A framework is established which places monitoring in the context of the strategic adaptive management of wetlands. This framework requires there has to be clear goals for the extent and condition of the resource, with these goals being defined within thresholds of acceptable variability. Qualitative and, where possible, quantitative conceptual models linking management interventions to management goals should be the basis of indicator selection and assessment. The intensity of sampling ought to be informed by pilot surveys of statistical power in relation to the thresholds of acceptable variability identified within the management plan.

The lunar nodal cycle controls mangrove canopy cover on the Australian continent.

Long-phase (interannual) tidal cycles have been shown to influence coastal flooding and sedimentation, but their role in shaping the extent and condition of tidal wetlands has received little attention. Here, we show that the 18.61-year lunar nodal cycle, popularly termed the "lunar wobble," is a dominant control over the expansion and contraction of mangrove canopy cover over much of the Australian continent. Furthermore, the contrasting phasing of the 18.61-year lunar nodal cycle between diurnal and semidiurnal tidal settings has mediated the severity of drought impacts in northern bioregions. Long-phase tidal cycles regulate maximum tide heights, are an important control over mangrove canopy cover, and may influence mangrove ecosystem services including forest productivity and carbon sequestration at regional scales.

Constraints on the adjustment of tidal marshes to accelerating sea level rise.

Much uncertainty exists about the vulnerability of valuable tidal marsh ecosystems to relative sea level rise. Previous assessments of resilience to sea level rise, to which marshes can adjust by sediment accretion and elevation gain, revealed contrasting results, depending on contemporary or Holocene geological data. By analyzing globally distributed contemporary data, we found that marsh sediment accretion increases in parity with sea level rise, seemingly confirming previously claimed marsh resilience. However, subsidence of the substrate shows a nonlinear increase with accretion. As a result, marsh elevation gain is constrained in relation to sea level rise, and deficits emerge that are consistent with Holocene observations of tidal marsh vulnerability.

Land cover alteration shifts ecological assembly processes in floodplain lakes: Consequences for fish community dynamics.

Habitat degradation is expected to alter community structure and consequently, ecosystem functions including the maintenance of biodiversity. Understanding the underlying abiotic and biotic assembly mechanisms controlling temporal and spatial community structure and patterns is a central issue in biodiversity conservation. In this study, using monthly time series of fish abundance data collected over a three-year period, we compared the temporal community dynamics in natural habitats and poplar plantations in one of the largest river-lake floodplain ecosystems in China, the Dongting Lake. We found a prevailing strong positive species covariance, i.e. species abundance changes in the same way, in all communities that was significantly negatively impacted by higher water nutrient levels. In contrast to species covariance, community stability, which was measured by the average of aggregated abundance divided by temporal standard deviation, was significantly higher in poplar plantations than in natural habitats. The positive species covariance, which was consistent for both wet and dry years and among habitat types, had significantly negative effects on community stability. Furthermore, our results demonstrated that the ecological stochasticity (i.e. community assembly processes generating diversity patterns that are indistinguishable from random chance) was significantly higher in natural sites than in poplar plantations, suggesting that deterministic processes might control the community composition (richness and abundance) at the modified habitat through reducing species synchrony and positive species covariance observed in the natural habitats, leading to significantly lower temporal ß-diversity. When combined, our results suggest that habitat modification created environmental conditions for the development of stable fish community in the highly dynamic floodplains, leading to niche-based community with lower temporal ß-diversity.