Climate change and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe.

Bluetongue, a devastating disease of ruminants, has historically made only brief, sporadic incursions into the fringes of Europe. However, since 1998, six strains of bluetongue virus have spread across 12 countries and 800 km further north in Europe than has previously been reported. We suggest that this spread has been driven by recent changes in European climate that have allowed increased virus persistence during winter, the northward expansion of Culicoides imicola, the main bluetongue virus vector, and, beyond this vector's range, transmission by indigenous European Culicoides species - thereby expanding the risk of transmission over larger geographical regions. Understanding this sequence of events may help us predict the emergence of other vector-borne pathogens.

Evolution and phylogenetic analysis of full-length VP3 genes of Eastern Mediterranean bluetongue virus isolates.

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is the 'type' species of the genus Orbivirus within the family Reoviridae. The BTV genome is composed of ten linear segments of double-stranded RNA (dsRNA), each of which codes for one of ten distinct viral proteins. Previous phylogenetic comparisons have evaluated variations in genome segment 3 (Seg-3) nucleotide sequence as way to identify the geographical origin (different topotypes) of BTV isolates. The full-length nucleotide sequence of genome Seg-3 was determined for thirty BTV isolates recovered in the eastern Mediterranean region, the Balkans and other geographic areas (Spain, India, Malaysia and Africa). These data were compared, based on molecular variability, positive-selection-analysis and maximum-likelihood phylogenetic reconstructions (using appropriate substitution models) to 24 previously published sequences, revealing their evolutionary relationships. These analyses indicate that negative selection is a major force in the evolution of BTV, restricting nucleotide variability, reducing the evolutionary rate of Seg-3 and potentially of other regions of the BTV genome. Phylogenetic analysis of the BTV-4 strains isolated over a relatively long time interval (1979-2000), in a single geographic area (Greece), showed a low level of nucleotide diversity, indicating that the virus can circulate almost unchanged for many years. These analyses also show that the recent incursions into south-eastern Europe were caused by BTV strains belonging to two different major-lineages: representing an 'eastern' (BTV-9, -16 and -1) and a 'western' (BTV-4) group/topotype. Epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses indicate that these viruses originated from a geographic area to the east and southeast of Greece (including Cyprus and the Middle East), which appears to represent an important ecological niche for the virus that is likely to represent a continuing source of future BTV incursions into Europe.

Peruvian horse sickness virus and Yunnan orbivirus, isolated from vertebrates and mosquitoes in Peru and Australia.

During 1997, two new viruses were isolated from outbreaks of disease that occurred in horses, donkeys, cattle and sheep in Peru. Genome characterization showed that the virus isolated from horses (with neurological disorders, 78% fatality) belongs to a new species the Peruvian horse sickness virus (PHSV), within the genus Orbivirus, family Reoviridae. This represents the first isolation of PHSV, which was subsequently also isolated during 1999, from diseased horses in the Northern Territory of Australia (Elsey virus, ELSV). Serological and molecular studies showed that PHSV and ELSV are very similar in the serotype-determining protein (99%, same serotype). The second virus (Rioja virus, RIOV) was associated with neurological signs in donkeys, cattle, sheep and dogs and was shown to be a member of the species Yunnan orbivirus (YUOV). RIOV and YUOV are also almost identical (97% amino acid identity) in the serotype-determining protein. YUOV was originally isolated from mosquitoes in China.

Sequence analysis of bluetongue virus serotype 8 from the Netherlands 2006 and comparison to other European strains.

During 2006 the first outbreak of bluetongue ever recorded in northern Europe started in Belgium and the Netherlands, spreading to Luxemburg, Germany and north-east France. The virus overwintered (2006-2007) reappearing during May-June 2007 with greatly increased severity in affected areas, spreading further into Germany and France, reaching Denmark, Switzerland, the Czech Republic and the UK. Infected animals were also imported into Poland, Italy, Spain and the UK. An initial isolate from the Netherlands (NET2006/04) was identified as BTV-8 by RT-PCR assays targeting genome segment 2. The full genome of NET2006/04 was sequenced and compared to selected European isolates, South African vaccine strains and other BTV-8 strains, indicating that it originated in sub-Saharan Africa. Although NET2006/04 showed high levels of nucleotide identity with other 'western' BTV strains, it represents a new introduction and was not derived from the BTV-8 vaccine, although its route of entry into Europe has not been established.

Pandemic strain of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype O.

A particular genetic lineage of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) serotype O, which we have named the PanAsia strain, was responsible for an explosive pandemic in Asia and extended to parts of Africa and Europe from 1998 to 2001. In 2000 and 2001, this virus strain caused outbreaks in the Republic of Korea, Japan, Russia, Mongolia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland, France, and the Netherlands, countries which last experienced FMD outbreaks decades before (ranging from 1934 for Korea to 1984 for the Netherlands). Although the virus has been controlled in all of these normally FMD-free or sporadically infected countries, it appears to be established throughout much of southern Asia, with geographically separated lineages evolving independently. A pandemic such as this is a rare phenomenon but demonstrates the ability of newly emerging FMDV strains to spread rapidly throughout a wide region and invade countries previously free from the disease.