Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests.

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.

Drivers of aboveground wood production in a lowland tropical forest of West Africa: teasing apart the roles of tree density, tree diversity, soil phosphorus, and historical logging.

Tropical forests currently play a key role in regulating the terrestrial carbon cycle and abating climate change by storing carbon in wood. However, there remains considerable uncertainty as to whether tropical forests will continue to act as carbon sinks in the face of increased pressure from expanding human activities. Consequently, understanding what drives productivity in tropical forests is critical. We used permanent forest plot data from the Gola Rainforest National Park (Sierra Leone) - one of the largest tracts of intact tropical moist forest in West Africa - to explore how (1) stand basal area and tree diversity, (2) past disturbance associated with past logging, and (3) underlying soil nutrient gradients interact to determine rates of aboveground wood production (AWP). We started by statistically modeling the diameter growth of individual trees and used these models to estimate AWP for 142 permanent forest plots. We then used structural equation modeling to explore the direct and indirect pathways which shape rates of AWP. Across the plot network, stand basal area emerged as the strongest determinant of AWP, with densely packed stands exhibiting the fastest rates of AWP. In addition to stand packing density, both tree diversity and soil phosphorus content were also positively related to productivity. By contrast, historical logging activities negatively impacted AWP through the removal of large trees, which contributed disproportionately to productivity. Understanding what determines variation in wood production across tropical forest landscapes requires accounting for multiple interacting drivers - with stand structure, tree diversity, and soil nutrients all playing a key role. Importantly, our results also indicate that logging activities can have a long-lasting impact on a forest's ability to sequester and store carbon, emphasizing the importance of safeguarding old-growth tropical forests.