A 6-mRNA host response classifier in whole blood predicts outcomes in COVID-19 and other acute viral infections.

Predicting the severity of COVID-19 remains an unmet medical need. Our objective was to develop a blood-based host-gene-expression classifier for the severity of viral infections and validate it in independent data, including COVID-19. We developed a logistic regression-based classifier for the severity of viral infections and validated it in multiple viral infection settings including COVID-19. We used training data (N = 705) from 21 retrospective transcriptomic clinical studies of influenza and other viral illnesses looking at a preselected panel of host immune response messenger RNAs. We selected 6 host RNAs and trained logistic regression classifier with a cross-validation area under curve of 0.90 for predicting 30-day mortality in viral illnesses. Next, in 1417 samples across 21 independent retrospective cohorts the locked 6-RNA classifier had an area under curve of 0.94 for discriminating patients with severe vs. non-severe infection. Next, in independent cohorts of prospectively (N = 97) and retrospectively (N = 100) enrolled patients with confirmed COVID-19, the classifier had an area under curve of 0.89 and 0.87, respectively, for identifying patients with severe respiratory failure or 30-day mortality. Finally, we developed a loop-mediated isothermal gene expression assay for the 6-messenger-RNA panel to facilitate implementation as a rapid assay. With further study, the classifier could assist in the risk assessment of COVID-19 and other acute viral infections patients to determine severity and level of care, thereby improving patient management and reducing healthcare burden.

Neutrophils-related host factors associated with severe disease and fatality in patients with influenza infection.

Severe influenza infection has no effective treatment available. One of the key barriers to developing host-directed therapy is a lack of reliable prognostic factors needed to guide such therapy. Here, we use a network analysis approach to identify host factors associated with severe influenza and fatal outcome. In influenza patients with moderate-to-severe diseases, we uncover a complex landscape of immunological pathways, with the main changes occurring in pathways related to circulating neutrophils. Patients with severe disease display excessive neutrophil extracellular traps formation, neutrophil-inflammation and delayed apoptosis, all of which have been associated with fatal outcome in animal models. Excessive neutrophil activation correlates with worsening oxygenation impairment and predicted fatal outcome (AUROC 0.817-0.898). These findings provide new evidence that neutrophil-dominated host response is associated with poor outcomes. Measuring neutrophil-related changes may improve risk stratification and patient selection, a critical first step in developing host-directed immune therapy.