Critical insolation-CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future glacial inception.

The past rapid growth of Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets, which terminated warm and stable climate periods, is generally attributed to reduced summer insolation in boreal latitudes. Yet such summer insolation is near to its minimum at present, and there are no signs of a new ice age. This challenges our understanding of the mechanisms driving glacial cycles and our ability to predict the next glacial inception. Here we propose a critical functional relationship between boreal summer insolation and global carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, which explains the beginning of the past eight glacial cycles and might anticipate future periods of glacial inception. Using an ensemble of simulations generated by an Earth system model of intermediate complexity constrained by palaeoclimatic data, we suggest that glacial inception was narrowly missed before the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The missed inception can be accounted for by the combined effect of relatively high late-Holocene CO2 concentrations and the low orbital eccentricity of the Earth. Additionally, our analysis suggests that even in the absence of human perturbations no substantial build-up of ice sheets would occur within the next several thousand years and that the current interglacial would probably last for another 50,000 years. However, moderate anthropogenic cumulative CO2 emissions of 1,000 to 1,500 gigatonnes of carbon will postpone the next glacial inception by at least 100,000 years. Our simulations demonstrate that under natural conditions alone the Earth system would be expected to remain in the present delicately balanced interglacial climate state, steering clear of both large-scale glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and its complete deglaciation, for an unusually long time.

Strong time dependence of ocean acidification mitigation by atmospheric carbon dioxide removal.

In Paris in 2015, the global community agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 [Formula: see text]C, aiming at even 1.5 [Formula: see text]C. It is still uncertain whether these targets are sufficient to preserve marine ecosystems and prevent a severe alteration of marine biogeochemical cycles. Here, we show that stringent mitigation strategies consistent with the 1.5 [Formula: see text]C scenario could, indeed, provoke a critical difference for the ocean's carbon cycle and calcium carbonate saturation states. Favorable conditions for calcifying organisms like tropical corals and polar pteropods, both of major importance for large ecosystems, can only be maintained if CO[Formula: see text] emissions fall rapidly between 2025 and 2050, potentially requiring an early deployment of CO[Formula: see text] removal techniques in addition to drastic emissions reduction. Furthermore, this outcome can only be achieved if the terrestrial biosphere remains a carbon sink during the entire 21st century.

Power-law persistence and trends in the atmosphere: a detailed study of long temperature records.

We use several variants of the detrended fluctuation analysis to study the appearance of long-term persistence in temperature records, obtained at 95 stations all over the globe. Our results basically confirm earlier studies. We find that the persistence, characterized by the correlation C(s) of temperature variations separated by s days, decays for large s as a power law, C(s) approximately s(-gamma). For continental stations, including stations along the coastlines, we find that gamma is always close to 0.7. For stations on islands, we find that gamma ranges between 0.3 and 0.7, with a maximum at gamma=0.4. This is consistent with earlier studies of the persistence in sea surface temperature records where gamma is close to 0.4. In all cases, the exponent gamma does not depend on the distance of the stations to the continental coastlines. By varying the degree of detrending in the fluctuation analysis we obtain also information about trends in the temperature records.

Limits of photosynthesis in extrasolar planetary systems for earth-like planets.

We present a general modeling scheme for investigating the possibility of photosynthesis-based life on extrasolar planets. The scheme focuses on the identification of the habitable zone in main-sequence-star planetary systems with planets of Earth mass and size. Our definition of habitability is based on the long-term possibility of photosynthetic biomass production as a function of mean planetary surface temperature and atmospheric CO2-content. All the astrophysical, climatological, biogeochemical, and geodynamic key processes involved in the generation of photosynthesis-driven life conditions are taken into account. Implicitly, a co-genetic origin of the central star and the orbiting planet is assumed. The numerical solution of an advanced geodynamic model yields realistic look-up diagrams for determining the limits of photosynthesis in extrasolar planetary systems, assuming minimum CO2 levels set by the demand of C4 photosynthesis.

Planetary habitability: is Earth commonplace in the Milky Way?

Is there life beyond planet Earth? This is one of the grand enigmas which humankind tries to solve through scientific research. Recent progress in astronomical measurement techniques has confirmed the existence of a multitude of extra-solar planets. On the other hand, enormous efforts are being made to assess the possibility of life on Mars. All these activities have stimulated several investigations about the habitability of cosmic bodies. The habitable zone (HZ) around a given central star is defined as the region within which an Earth-like planet might enjoy the moderate surface temperatures required for advanced life forms. At present, there are several models determining the HZ. One class of models utilises climate constraints for the existence of liquid water on a planetary surface. Another approach is based on an integrated Earth system analysis that relates the boundaries of the HZ to the limits of photosynthetic processes. Within the latter approach, the evolution of the HZ for our solar system over geological time scales is calculated straightforwardly, and a convenient filter can be constructed that picks the candidates for photosynthesis-based life from all the extra-solar planets discovered by novel observational methods. These results can then be used to determine the average number of planets per planetary system that are within the HZ. With the help of a segment of the Drake equation, the number of "Gaias" (i.e. extra-solar terrestrial planets with a globally acting biosphere) is estimated. This leads to the thoroughly educated guess that there should exist half a million Gaias in the Milky Way.