Declines in body size of sockeye salmon associated with increased competition in the ocean.

Declining body sizes have been documented for several species of Pacific salmon; however, whether size declines are caused mainly by ocean warming or other ecological factors, and whether they result primarily from trends in age at maturation or changing growth rates remain poorly understood. We quantified changes in mean body size and contributions from shifting size-at-age and age structure of mature sockeye salmon returning to Bristol Bay, Alaska, over the past 60 years. Mean length declined by 3%, corresponding to a 10% decline in mean body mass, since the early 1960s, though much of this decline occurred since the early 2000s. Changes in size-at-age were the dominant cause of body size declines and were more consistent than trends in age structure among the major rivers that flow into Bristol Bay. Annual variation in size-at-age was largely explained by competition among Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and interspecific competition with other salmon in the North Pacific Ocean. Warm winters were associated with better growth of sockeye salmon, whereas warm summers were associated with reduced growth. Our findings point to competition at sea as the main driver of sockeye salmon size declines, and emphasize the trade-off between fish abundance and body size.

Assessing the potential for demographic restoration and assisted evolution to build climate resilience in coral reefs.

Interest is growing in developing conservation strategies to restore and maintain coral reef ecosystems in the face of mounting anthropogenic stressors, particularly climate warming and associated mass bleaching events. One such approach is to propagate coral colonies ex situ and transplant them to degraded reef areas to augment habitat for reef-dependent fauna, prevent colonization from spatial competitors, and enhance coral reproductive output. In addition to such "demographic restoration" efforts, manipulating the thermal tolerance of outplanted colonies through assisted relocation, selective breeding, or genetic engineering is being considered for enhancing rates of evolutionary adaptation to warming. Although research into such "assisted evolution" strategies has been growing, their expected performance remains unclear. We evaluated the potential outcomes of demographic restoration and assisted evolution in climate change scenarios using an eco-evolutionary simulation model. We found that supplementing reefs with pre-existing genotypes (demographic restoration) offers little climate resilience benefits unless input levels are large and maintained for centuries. Supplementation with thermally resistant colonies was successful at improving coral cover at lower input levels, but only if maintained for at least a century. Overall, we found that, although demographic restoration and assisted evolution have the potential to improve long-term coral cover, both approaches had a limited impact in preventing severe declines under climate change scenarios. Conversely, with sufficient natural genetic variance and time, corals could readily adapt to warming temperatures, suggesting that restoration approaches focused on building genetic variance may outperform those based solely on introducing heat-tolerant genotypes.

Resurgence of an apex marine predator and the decline in prey body size.

In light of recent recoveries of marine mammal populations worldwide and heightened concern about their impacts on marine food webs and global fisheries, it has become increasingly important to understand the potential impacts of large marine mammal predators on prey populations and their life-history traits. In coastal waters of the northeast Pacific Ocean, marine mammals have increased in abundance over the past 40 to 50 y, including fish-eating killer whales that feed primarily on Chinook salmon. Chinook salmon, a species of high cultural and economic value, have exhibited marked declines in average size and age throughout most of their North American range. This raises the question of whether size-selective predation by marine mammals is generating these trends in life-history characteristics. Here we show that increased predation since the 1970s, but not fishery selection alone, can explain the changes in age and size structure observed for Chinook salmon populations along the west coast of North America. Simulations suggest that the decline in mean size results from the selective removal of large fish and an evolutionary shift toward faster growth and earlier maturation caused by selection. Our conclusion that intensifying predation by fish-eating killer whales contributes to the continuing decline in Chinook salmon body size points to conflicting management and conservation objectives for these two iconic species.

Evolution and connectivity influence the persistence and recovery of coral reefs under climate change in the Caribbean, Southwest Pacific, and Coral Triangle.

Corals are experiencing unprecedented decline from climate change-induced mass bleaching events. Dispersal not only contributes to coral reef persistence through demographic rescue but can also hinder or facilitate evolutionary adaptation. Locations of reefs that are likely to survive future warming therefore remain largely unknown, particularly within the context of both ecological and evolutionary processes across complex seascapes that differ in temperature range, strength of connectivity, network size, and other characteristics. Here, we used eco-evolutionary simulations to examine coral adaptation to warming across reef networks in the Caribbean, the Southwest Pacific, and the Coral Triangle. We assessed the factors associated with coral persistence in multiple reef systems to understand which results are general and which are sensitive to particular geographic contexts. We found that evolution can be critical in preventing extinction and facilitating the long-term recovery of coral communities in all regions. Furthermore, the strength of immigration to a reef (destination strength) and current sea surface temperature robustly predicted reef persistence across all reef networks and across temperature projections. However, we found higher initial coral cover, slower recovery, and more evolutionary lag in the Coral Triangle, which has a greater number of reefs and more larval settlement than the other regions. We also found the lowest projected future coral cover in the Caribbean. These findings suggest that coral reef persistence depends on ecology, evolution, and habitat network characteristics, and that, under an emissions stabilization scenario (RCP 4.5), recovery may be possible over multiple centuries.

Glacier Retreat and Pacific Salmon.

Glaciers have shaped past and present habitats for Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in North America. During the last glacial maximum, approximately 45% of the current North American range of Pacific salmon was covered in ice. Currently, most salmon habitat occurs in watersheds in which glacier ice is present and retreating. This synthesis examines the multiple ways that glacier retreat can influence aquatic ecosystems through the lens of Pacific salmon life cycles. We predict that the coming decades will result in areas in which salmon populations will be challenged by diminished water flows and elevated water temperatures, areas in which salmon productivity will be enhanced as downstream habitat suitability increases, and areas in which new river and lake habitat will be formed that can be colonized by anadromous salmon. Effective conservation and management of salmon habitat and populations should consider the impacts of glacier retreat and other sources of ecosystem change.

The phenology of migration in an unpredictable world.

In Focus: Freshwater, C., Trudel, M., Beacham, T. D., Gauthier, S., Johnson, S. C., Neville, C. & Juanes, F. (2016) Individual variation, population-specific migration behaviours and stochastic processes shape marine migration phenologies. Journal of Animal Ecology, 88, 67-78. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12852 Pacific salmon undertake arduous and risky migrations from their freshwater nursery grounds to the coastal ocean, northwards to their feeding grounds, and then back to their freshwater natal habitats to spawn. Understanding the phenology of such migrations has largely been viewed through the lens of microevolution producing optimal strategies that reflect local selection pressures; less emphasis has been placed on quantifying how variation in migration patterns can spread the risks associated with life in variable and unpredictable ecosystems. In this issue, Freshwater et al. use the information contained in ear stones (otoliths) and DNA of migrating juvenile sockeye salmon from the Fraser River of western Canada to quantify variation in the timing of their marine migrations. Not only were there population-specific differences in migration phenology of fish from the same river, but there was substantial variation among individuals from specific populations. These patterns also varied from year to year. Data like these emphasize the risks involved in such migrations and suggest that variation in key migration traits are maintained because of the inherent unpredictability of ecosystems. Management and conservation efforts would be well-served to consider actions that maintain such ecological variation to facilitate meta-population persistence in a rapidly changing world.

Isotopes in teeth and a cryptic population of coastal freshwater seals.

Human activities threaten the biodiversity of aquatic mammals across the globe. Conservation of these species hinges on the ability to delineate movements and foraging behaviors of animals, but gaining such insights is hampered by difficulties in tracing individuals over their lives. We determined isotope ratios in teeth (87 Sr/86 Sr, 13 C/12 C, and 18 O/16 O) to examine lifelong movement and resource-use patterns of a unique freshwater population of a wide-ranging pinniped species (harbor seal [Phoca vitulina]) that resides in Iliamna Lake, Alaska (U.S.A.). This population's potentially unique migratory behavior and use of different trophic resources are unknown. The isotope ratios we measured in teeth showed that seals were born in the lake, remained lifelong residents, and relied principally on resources produced from in the lake, even when seasonally abundant and nutrient-dense spawning anadromous fish (i.e., sockeye salmon [Oncorhynchus nerka]) were available in the lake. Our results illustrate how serial isotope records in teeth, particularly 87 Sr/86 Sr ratios, can be used to quantify how coastal mammal populations exploit both freshwater and marine ecosystems. Understanding lifelong patterns of habitat and resource use is essential information when designing effective conservation plans for threatened coastal mammals. We present the Iliamna Lake harbor seals as a unique case study into how isotope records within teeth can help reveal the cryptic ecology of such a population residing in an intact ecosystem. The results also provide critical baseline information for the Kvichak River system, which is facing an uncertain future due to proposed large-scale industrial development and a rapidly changing climate.

Isotopos Dentales y una Población Críptica de Focas Costeras de Agua Dulce Resumen Las actividades humanas amenazan a la diversidad de mamíferos acuáticos en todo el mundo. La conservación de estas especies depende de la habilidad para delinear los movimientos y los comportamientos de búsqueda de alimento de los animales, pero la obtención de dicha información está obstaculizada por las dificultades en el rastreo de individuos a lo largo del transcurso de sus vidas. Determinamos la proporción de isotopos dentales (87 Sr/86 Sr, 13 C/12 C y 18 O/16 O) para examinar el movimiento a lo largo de la vida y los patrones de uso de recursos de una población única de una especie de pinnípedos de agua dulce con una distribución amplia (foca común [Phoca vitulina]), la cual reside en el lago Iliamna, Alaska (E.U.A.). Se desconocen el comportamiento migratorio potencialmente único de esta población y el uso que le dan a los diferentes recursos tróficos. La proporción de isotopos que medimos en los dientes mostró que las focas nacieron en el lago, permanecieron como residentes de toda la vida y dependieron principalmente de los recursos producidos en el lago, incluso cuando estaban disponibles en aquel lugar por razones reproductivas los peces anádromos abundantes estacionalmente y con densidad de nutrientes (es decir, el salmón rojo [Oncorhynchus nerka]). Nuestros resultados ilustran cómo los registros seriales de isotopos dentales, particularmente la proporción 87 Sr/86 Sr, pueden usarse para cuantificar cómo las poblaciones de mamíferos costeros explotan tanto los ecosistemas marinos como los de agua dulce. El entendimiento de los patrones ontogénicos del uso de recursos y de hábitat es esencial cuando se diseñan planes efectivos de conservación para los mamíferos costeros en peligro. Presentamos a las focas comunes del lago Iliamna como un estudio de caso único sobre cómo los registros de isotopos dentales pueden ayudar a revelar la ecología críptica de dicha población que reside en un ecosistema intacto. Los resultados también proporcionan información importante de línea base para el sistema el río Kvichak, el cual está enfrentando un futuro incierto debido a la propuesta de un desarrollo industrial de gran escala y al rápido clima cambiante.

Does lipid-correction introduce biases into isotopic mixing models? Implications for diet reconstruction studies.

Carbon isotopes are commonly used in trophic ecology to estimate consumer diet composition. This estimation is complicated by the fact that lipids exhibit a more depleted carbon signature (δ13C) than other macromolecules, and are often found at different concentrations among individual organisms. Some researchers argue that lipids bias diet reconstructions using stable isotopes and should be accounted for prior to analysis in food web mixing models, whereas others contend that removing lipids may result in erroneous interpretations of the trophic interactions under study. To highlight this disagreement on best practices for applying δ13C in food web studies, we sampled the recent literature to determine the frequency and method of lipid-correction. We then quantified the potential magnitude and source of bias in mixing model results from a theoretical example and case study of diet reconstruction. The literature was split nearly evenly as to whether lipid-correction was applied to δ13C data in mixing model estimates of diet composition. Comparative mixing model scenarios demonstrated that lipid-correction can substantially alter the estimated diet composition and interpretation of consumer foraging habits. Given the lack of consensus on whether or not to lipid-correct prey and/or consumers, and the associated variation in mixing model results, we call for the establishment of a unified framework that will guide diet reconstruction in stable isotope ecology. Uncertainty in the prevalence of direct routing versus de novo synthesis of lipids across ecosystems, taxa, and trophic levels must be resolved to better guide treatment of lipids in isotope studies using carbon.

Evaluating early-warning indicators of critical transitions in natural aquatic ecosystems.

Ecosystems can show sudden and persistent changes in state despite only incremental changes in drivers. Such critical transitions are difficult to predict, because the state of the system often shows little change before the transition. Early-warning indicators (EWIs) are hypothesized to signal the loss of system resilience and have been shown to precede critical transitions in theoretical models, paleo-climate time series, and in laboratory as well as whole lake experiments. The generalizability of EWIs for detecting critical transitions in empirical time series of natural aquatic ecosystems remains largely untested, however. Here we assessed four commonly used EWIs on long-term datasets of five freshwater ecosystems that have experienced sudden, persistent transitions and for which the relevant ecological mechanisms and drivers are well understood. These case studies were categorized by three mechanisms that can generate critical transitions between alternative states: competition, trophic cascade, and intraguild predation. Although EWIs could be detected in most of the case studies, agreement among the four indicators was low. In some cases, EWIs were detected considerably ahead of the transition. Nonetheless, our results show that at present, EWIs do not provide reliable and consistent signals of impending critical transitions despite using some of the best routinely monitored freshwater ecosystems. Our analysis strongly suggests that a priori knowledge of the underlying mechanisms driving ecosystem transitions is necessary to identify relevant state variables for successfully monitoring EWIs.

Spatial heterogeneity contributes more to portfolio effects than species variability in bottom-associated marine fishes.

Variance of community abundance will be reduced relative to its theoretical maximum whenever population densities fluctuate asynchronously. Fishing communities and mobile predators can switch among fish species and/or fishing locations with asynchronous dynamics, thereby buffering against variable resource densities (termed 'portfolio effects', PEs). However, whether variation among species or locations represent the dominant contributor to PE remains relatively unexplored. Here, we apply a spatio-temporal model to multidecadal time series (1982-2015) for 20 bottom-associated fishes in seven marine ecosystems. For each ecosystem, we compute the reduction in variance over time in total biomass relative to its theoretical maximum if species and locations were perfectly correlated (total PE). We also compute the reduction in variance due to asynchrony among species at each location (species PE) or the reduction due to asynchrony among locations for each species (spatial PE). We specifically compute total, species and spatial PE in 10-year moving windows to detect changes over time. Our analyses revealed that spatial PE are stronger than species PE in six of seven ecosystems, and that ecosystems where species PE is constant over time can exhibit shifts in locations that strongly contribute to PE. We therefore recommend that spatial and total PE be monitored as ecosystem indicators representing risk exposure for human and natural consumers.

An assessment of assumptions and uncertainty in deuterium-based estimates of terrestrial subsidies to aquatic consumers.

The deuterium ratio (2 H/1 H) in tissue is often used to estimate terrestrial subsidies to aquatic consumers because of strongly differentiated values between terrestrial and aquatic primary producers. However, quantitative deuterium-based analyses of terrestrial resource assimilation are highly dependent on several poorly defined assumptions. We explored the sensitivity of these estimates to assumptions regarding environmental water contributions to consumer deuterium content (ω) and algal photosynthetic hydrogen discrimination (εH ). We also tested whether 13 C/12 C and 2 H/1 H-based estimates of terrestrial resource assimilation give similar outcomes. The average of the 12 experiments that have directly estimated proportional contributions of environmental water to consumer tissue 2 H/1 H was 0.27 ± 0.11 (mean ± SD), with similar values for invertebrates and fish. Conversely, of the 28 field studies that have used 2 H/1 H to characterize aquatic food webs, all but one assume a value that is less than our current best estimate, usually substantially less. A reanalysis of the raw data from four recent case studies indicates the calculated terrestrial contribution to aquatic consumers is extremely sensitive to this assumption. When the authors' original assumptions were used (i.e., ω = 0.16 ± 0.05), the estimated proportional contribution of terrestrial resources to aquatic consumers (θT ) averaged 29 ± 17%, and when ω = 0.27 was used the average estimated assimilation of allochthonous resources was ≈0.00. A compilation of published photosynthetic hydrogen discrimination values for microalgae averaged εH  = -150 ± 27‰ (SD, n = 99), and a sensitivity analysis showed the outcomes of these calculations were also strongly influenced by uncertainty in εH . There was no statistical association between 13 C/12 C and 2 H/1 H-based estimates of terrestrial subsidies (r = -0.12, n = 274). This analysis indicates that the assumptions in deuterium-based estimates of terrestrial resource assimilation are highly influential but poorly constrained; therefore, the impact of these assumptions on calculated outputs must be carefully assessed and thoroughly reported. Due to the highly uncertain assumptions inherent in deuterium-based analyses, we urge much more caution when using this approach to estimate terrestrial subsidies to consumers in aquatic ecosystems.

Metabolic theory and taxonomic identity predict nutrient recycling in a diverse food web.

Reconciling the degree to which ecological processes are generalizable among taxa and ecosystems, or contingent on the identity of interacting species, remains a critical challenge in ecology. Ecological stoichiometry (EST) and metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) are theoretical approaches used to evaluate how consumers mediate nutrient dynamics and energy flow through ecosystems. Recent theoretical work has explored the utility of these theories, but empirical tests in species-rich ecological communities remain scarce. Here we use an unprecedented dataset collected from fishes and dominant invertebrates (n = 900) in a diverse subtropical coastal marine community (50 families, 72 genera, 102 species; body mass range: 0.04-2,597 g) to test the utility of EST and MTE in predicting excretion rates of nitrogen (E(N)), phosphorus (E(P)), and their ratio (E(NP)). Body mass explained a large amount of the variation in EN and EP but not E(NP). Strong evidence in support of the MTE 3/4 allometric scaling coefficient was found for E(P), and for E(N) only after accounting for variation in excretion rates among taxa. In all cases, including taxonomy in models substantially improved model performance, highlighting the importance of species identity for this ecosystem function. Body nutrient content and trophic position explained little of the variation in E(N), E(P), or E(NP), indicating limited applicability of basic predictors of EST. These results highlight the overriding importance of MTE for predicting nutrient flow through organisms, but emphasize that these relationships still fall short of explaining the unique effects certain species can have on ecological processes.

Genomic islands of divergence linked to ecotypic variation in sockeye salmon.

Regions of the genome displaying elevated differentiation (genomic islands of divergence) are thought to play an important role in local adaptation, especially in populations experiencing high gene flow. However, the characteristics of these islands as well as the functional significance of genes located within them remain largely unknown. Here, we used data from thousands of SNPs aligned to a linkage map to investigate genomic islands of divergence in three ecotypes of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) from a single drainage in southwestern Alaska. We found ten islands displaying high differentiation among ecotypes. Conversely, neutral structure observed throughout the rest of the genome was low and not partitioned by ecotype. One island on linkage group So13 was particularly large and contained six SNPs with FST  > 0.14 (average FST of neutral SNPs = 0.01). Functional annotation revealed that the peak of this island contained a nonsynonymous mutation in a gene involved in growth in other species (TULP4). The islands that we discovered were relatively small (80-402 Kb), loci found in islands did not show reduced levels of diversity, and loci in islands displayed slightly elevated linkage disequilibrium. These attributes suggest that the islands discovered here were likely generated by divergence hitchhiking; however, we cannot rule out the possibility that other mechanisms may have produced them. Our results suggest that islands of divergence serve an important role in local adaptation with gene flow and represent a significant advance towards understanding the genetic basis of ecotypic differentiation.

Linking otolith microchemistry and dendritic isoscapes to map heterogeneous production of fish across river basins.

Production patterns of highly mobile species, such as anadromous fish, often exhibit high spatial and temporal heterogeneity across landscapes. Such variability is often asynchronous in time among habitats, which stabilizes production at aggregate scales of complexity. Reconstructing production patterns explicitly in space and time across multiple scales, however, remains difficult but is important for prioritizing habitat conservation. This is especially true for fishes inhabiting river basins due to long-range dispersal, high mortality at early life stages, complex population structure and elusive life history variation. We develop a new approach for mapping production patterns of Pacific salmon across a large river basin by integrating otolith microchemistry and dendritic isoscape models. The geographically continuous Bayesian assignment framework presented here yielded high accuracies (>90%) and relatively high precisions (precisions <4%; i.e., assignment areas of <530 river km of the 13 100 km total river length) when used to determine the natal source of known-origin juvenile Chinook salmon captured throughout the study region. Integrating these methods enabled us to base estimates of provenance and habitat use of individuals on a per location basis using strontium isotopic data throughout the continuous spatial domain of a river network. Such a framework provides substantial advantages over the more common nominal approach to employing otolith microchemistry to reconstruct movement patterns of fish. In doing so, we reconstructed the spatial production patterns of adult Chinook salmon returning to a large watershed in Bristol Bay, Alaska and illustrate the power of such an approach to conservation efforts.

Excess digestive capacity in predators reflects a life of feast and famine.

A central challenge for predators is achieving positive energy balance when prey are spatially and temporally heterogeneous. Ecological heterogeneity produces evolutionary trade-offs in the physiological design of predators; this is because the ability to capitalize on pulses of food abundance requires high capacity for food-processing, yet maintaining such capacity imposes energetic costs that are taxing during periods of food scarcity. Recent advances in physiology show that when variation in foraging opportunities is predictable, animals may adjust energetic trade-offs by rapidly modulating their digestive system to track variation in foraging opportunities. However, it is increasingly recognized that foraging opportunities for animals are unpredictable, which should favour animals that maintain a capacity for food-processing that exceeds average levels of consumption (loads). Despite this basic principle of quantitative evolutionary design, estimates of digestive load:capacity ratios in wild animals are virtually non-existent. Here we provide an extensive assessment of load:capacity ratios for the digestive systems of predators in the wild, compiling 639 estimates across 38 species of fish. We found that piscine predators typically maintain the physiological capacity to feed at daily rates 2-3 times higher than what they experience on average. A numerical simulation of the trade-off between food-processing capacity and metabolic cost suggests that the observed level of physiological opportunism is profitable only if predator-prey encounters, and thus predator energy budgets, are far more variable in nature than currently assumed.

Resource waves: phenological diversity enhances foraging opportunities for mobile consumers.

Time can be a limiting constraint for consumers, particularly when resource phenology mediates foraging opportunity. Though a large body of research has explored how resource phenology influences trophic interactions, this work has focused on the topics of trophic mismatch or predator swamping, which typically occur over short periods, at small spatial extents or coarse resolutions. In contrast many consumers integrate across landscape heterogeneity in resource phenology, moving to track ephemeral food sources that propagate across space as resource waves. Here we provide a conceptual framework to advance the study of phenological diversity and resource waves. We define resource waves, review evidence of their importance in recent case studies, and demonstrate their broader ecological significance with a simulation model. We found that consumers ranging from fig wasps (Chalcidoidea) to grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) exploit resource waves, integrating across phenological diversity to make resource aggregates available for much longer than their component parts. In model simulations, phenological diversity was often more important to consumer energy gain than resource abundance per se. Current ecosystem-based management assumes that species abundance mediates the strength of trophic interactions. Our results challenge this assumption and highlight new opportunities for conservation and management. Resource waves are an emergent property of consumer-resource interactions and are broadly significant in ecology and conservation.

Long time horizon for adaptive management to reveal predation effects in a salmon fishery.

Predator-prey interactions shape ecosystem structure and function, potentially limiting the productivity of valuable species. Simultaneously, stochastic environmental forcing affects species productivity, often through unknown mechanisms. The interacting effects of trophic and environmental conditions complicate management of exploited ecosystems and have motivated calls for more holistic management via ecosystem-based approaches, yet the limitations to these approaches are not widely appreciated. The Chignik salmon fishery in Alaska is managed to achieve maximum sustainable yield for sockeye salmon, though research suggests that predation by less economically valuable, and thus not targeted, coho salmon during juvenile rearing limits the productivity of sockeye salmon. We examined the relationship between historical sockeye salmon recruitment and coho salmon abundance observed in the Chignik system and could not detect a clear effect of coho salmon abundance on sockeye salmon productivity, given existing data. Using simulation models, we examined the probability of detecting a known predation effect on sockeye salmon recruitment in the presence of observation error in coho salmon abundance and stochasticity in sockeye salmon recruitment. Increased recruitment stochasticity reduced the ability to detect predator effects in recruitment, an effect further strengthened when low frequency environmental variation was added to the system. Further, increased observation error biased estimates of predator effects towards zero. Thus, in systems with high observation error on predator abundances, estimates of predation effects will be substantially weaker than true effects. We examined the effects of stochasticity on the ability of an adaptive management program to learn about ecosystem structure and detect an effect of management actions intended to release a prey species from its predators. Simulation models revealed that even under scenarios of large predation effects on sockeye salmon, stochastic recruitment masked detection of an effect of increased coho salmon harvest for nearly a decade. These results highlight the challenges inherent in ecosystem-based management of predator-prey systems due to mismatched timescales of ecosystem dynamics and the willingness of stakeholders to risk losses in order to test uncertain hypotheses. It is critical for stakeholders considering EBFM (ecosystem-based fisheries management) and adaptive management strategies to be aware of the potential timelines of perceiving ecosystem change.

Population diversity and the portfolio effect in an exploited species.

One of the most pervasive themes in ecology is that biological diversity stabilizes ecosystem processes and the services they provide to society, a concept that has become a common argument for biodiversity conservation. Species-rich communities are thought to produce more temporally stable ecosystem services because of the complementary or independent dynamics among species that perform similar ecosystem functions. Such variance dampening within communities is referred to as a portfolio effect and is analogous to the effects of asset diversity on the stability of financial portfolios. In ecology, these arguments have focused on the effects of species diversity on ecosystem stability but have not considered the importance of biologically relevant diversity within individual species. Current rates of population extirpation are probably at least three orders of magnitude higher than species extinction rates, so there is a pressing need to clarify how population and life history diversity affect the performance of individual species in providing important ecosystem services. Here we use five decades of data from Oncorhynchus nerka (sockeye salmon) in Bristol Bay, Alaska, to provide the first quantification of portfolio effects that derive from population and life history diversity in an important and heavily exploited species. Variability in annual Bristol Bay salmon returns is 2.2 times lower than it would be if the system consisted of a single homogenous population rather than the several hundred discrete populations it currently consists of. Furthermore, if it were a single homogeneous population, such increased variability would lead to ten times more frequent fisheries closures. Portfolio effects are also evident in watershed food webs, where they stabilize and extend predator access to salmon resources. Our results demonstrate the critical importance of maintaining population diversity for stabilizing ecosystem services and securing the economies and livelihoods that depend on them. The reliability of ecosystem services will erode faster than indicated by species loss alone.

Centennial-scale fluctuations and regional complexity characterize Pacific salmon population dynamics over the past five centuries.

Observational data from the past century have highlighted the importance of interdecadal modes of variability in fish population dynamics, but how these patterns of variation fit into a broader temporal and spatial context remains largely unknown. We analyzed time series of stable nitrogen isotopes from the sediments of 20 sockeye salmon nursery lakes across western Alaska to characterize temporal and spatial patterns in salmon abundance over the past ∼500 y. Although some stocks varied on interdecadal time scales (30- to 80-y cycles), centennial-scale variation, undetectable in modern-day catch records and survey data, has dominated salmon population dynamics over the past 500 y. Before 1900, variation in abundance was clearly not synchronous among stocks, and the only temporal signal common to lake sediment records from this region was the onset of commercial fishing in the late 1800s. Thus, historical changes in climate did not synchronize stock dynamics over centennial time scales, emphasizing that ecosystem complexity can produce a diversity of ecological responses to regional climate forcing. Our results show that marine fish populations may alternate between naturally driven periods of high and low abundance over time scales of decades to centuries and suggest that management models that assume time-invariant productivity or carrying capacity parameters may be poor representations of the biological reality in these systems.

Geomorphology controls the trophic base of stream food webs in a boreal watershed .

Abstract. Physical attributes of rivers control the quantity and quality of energy sources available to consumers, but it remains untested whether geomorphic conditions of whole watersheds affect the assimilation of different resources by stream organisms. We compared the fatty acid (FA) compositions of two invertebrate taxa (caddisflies, mayflies) collected from 16 streams in southwest Alaska, USA, to assess how assimilation of terrestrial organic matter (OM) and algae varied across a landscape gradient in watershed features. We found relatively higher assimilation of algae in high-gradient streams compared with low-gradient streams, and the opposite pattern for assimilation of terrestrial OM and microbes. The strength of these patterns was more pronounced for caddisflies than mayflies. Invertebrates from low-gradient watersheds had FA markers unique to methane-oxidizing bacteria and sulfate-reducing microbes, indicating a contribution of anaerobic pathways to primary consumers. Diversity of FA composition was highest in watersheds of intermediate slopes that contain both significant terrestrial inputs as well as high algal biomass. By controlling the accumulation rate and processing of terrestrial OM, watershed features influence the energetic base of food webs in boreal streams.