Recency-Weighted Statistical Modeling Approach to Attribute Illnesses Caused by 4 Pathogens to Food Sources Using Outbreak Data, United States.

Foodborne illness source attribution is foundational to a risk-based food safety system. We describe a method for attributing US foodborne illnesses caused by nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica, Escherichia coli O157, Listeria monocytogenes, and Campylobacter to 17 food categories using statistical modeling of outbreak data. This method adjusts for epidemiologic factors associated with outbreak size, down-weights older outbreaks, and estimates credibility intervals. On the basis of 952 reported outbreaks and 32,802 illnesses during 1998-2012, we attribute 77% of foodborne Salmonella illnesses to 7 food categories (seeded vegetables, eggs, chicken, other produce, pork, beef, and fruits), 82% of E. coli O157 illnesses to beef and vegetable row crops, 81% of L. monocytogenes illnesses to fruits and dairy, and 74% of Campylobacter illnesses to dairy and chicken. However, because Campylobacter outbreaks probably overrepresent dairy as a source of nonoutbreak campylobacteriosis, we caution against using these Campylobacter attribution estimates without further adjustment.

Birth Hospitalization Costs and Days of Care for Mothers and Neonates in California, 2009-2011.

OBJECTIVE: To provide population-based estimates of the hospital-related costs of maternal and newborn care, and how these vary by gestational age and birth weight. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 2009-2011 California in-hospital deliveries at nonfederal hospitals with the infant and maternal discharge data successfully (96%) linked to birth certificates. Cost-to-charge ratios were used to estimate costs from charges. Physician hospital payments were estimated by mean diagnosis related group-specific reimbursement and costs were adjusted for inflation to December 2017 values. After exclusions for incomplete or missing data, the final sample was 1 265 212. RESULTS: The mean maternal costs for all in-hospital deliveries was $8204, increasing to $13 154 for late preterm (32-36 weeks) and $22 702 for very preterm (<32 weeks) mothers. The mean cost for all newborns was $6389: $2433 for term infants, $22 102 for late preterm, $223 931 for very preterm infants, and $317 982 for extremely preterm infants (<28 weeks). Preterm infants were 8.1% of cases but incurred 60.9% of costs; for very preterm and extremely preterm infants, these shares were 1.0% and 36.5%, and 0.4% and 20.0%, respectively. Overall, mothers incurred 56% of the total costs during the delivery hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Both maternal and neonatal costs are skewed, with this being much more pronounced for infants. Preterm birth is much more expensive than term delivery, with the additional costs predominately incurred by the infants. The small share of infants who require extensive stays in neonatal intensive care incur a large share of neonatal costs and these costs have increased over time.

Patient and facility variation in costs of catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Cost-effectiveness or value of cardiovascular therapies may be undermined by unwarranted cost variation, particularly for heterogeneous procedures such as catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF). We sought to characterize cost variation of AF ablation in the US healthcare system and the relationship between cost and outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using data from the MarketScan® commercial claims and Medicare supplemental databases including patients who received an AF ablation from 2007 to 2011. We aggregated encounter cost, reflecting total payments received for the encounter, to the facility level to calculate median facility cost. We classified procedures as outpatient or inpatient and assessed for association between cost and 30-day and 1-year outcomes. The analysis cohort included 9,415 AF ablations (59±11 years; 28% female; 52% outpatient) occurring at 327 facilities, with large cost variation across facilities (median: $25,100; 25th percentile: $18,900, 75th percentile: $35,600, 95th percentile: $57,800). Among outpatient procedures, there was reduced healthcare utilization in higher cost quintiles with reductions in rehospitalization at 30-days (Quintile 1: 16.1%, Quintile 5: 8.8%, P < 0.001) and 1-year (Quintile 1: 34.8%, Quintile 5: 25.6%, P < 0.001), which remained significant in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Although median costs of AF ablation are below amounts used in prior cost-effectiveness studies that demonstrated good value, large facility variation in cost suggests opportunities for cost reduction. However, for outpatient encounters, association of cost to modestly improved outcomes suggests cost containment strategies could have variable effects.

Safety and Clinical Outcomes of Catheter Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Data regarding catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is limited. We therefore assessed the association of CKD with common safety and clinical outcomes in a nationwide sample of ablation recipients. METHODS: Using MarketScan® Commercial Claims and Medicare Supplemental Databases, we evaluated 30-day safety and 1-year clinical outcomes in patients who underwent a first AF ablation procedure between 2007 and 2011. We calculated frequency of common 30-day complications and calculated frequencies, incidence rates, and Cox proportional hazards for outcomes at 1-year postablation. RESULTS: Of 21,091 patients included, 1,593 (7.6%) had CKD. Patients with CKD were older (64 years vs. 59 years, P < 0.001) with higher CHA2 DS2 -VASc scores (3.2 vs. 1.8, P < 0.001). At 30 days postablation, patients with CKD had similar rates of stroke/TIA (0.13% vs. 0.13%, P = 0.99), perforation/tamponade (3.2% vs. 3.1%, P = 0.83), and vascular complications (2.4% vs. 2.2%, P = 0.59) as patients without CKD, but were more likely to be hospitalized for heart failure (2.1% vs. 0.4%, P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, there were no significant differences in hazards of AF hospitalization (adjusted HR: 1.02, 95%CI: 0.87-1.20), cardioversion (adjusted HR: 0.99, 95%CI: 0.87-1.12), or repeat AF ablation (adjusted HR: 0.89, 95%CI: 0.76-1.06) at 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients selected for AF ablation, those with and without CKD had similar rates of postprocedural complications although they were more likely to be re-admitted for heart failure. CKD was not independently associated with AF hospitalization, cardioversion, and repeat ablation. These findings can inform clinical decision-making in patients with AF and CKD.

How Will New Guidelines Affect CD4 Testing in Veterans With HIV?

BACKGROUND: Guidelines now recommend limited use of routine CD4 cell count testing in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients with successful viral control who are not immunocompromised. METHODS: CD4 and viral load tests for patients receiving HIV care from the US Department of Veterans Affairs during 2009-2013 were evaluated to determine trends in CD4 testing frequency and the number, cost, and results of CD4 tests considered optional under the guidelines. RESULTS: There were 28 530 individuals with sufficient testing to be included. At the time of the last CD4 test, 19.8% of the cohort was eligible for optional monitoring and 15.6% for minimal monitoring. CD4 testing frequency declined by 10.8% over 4 years, reducing the direct cost of testing by US$196 000 per year. Full implementation of new treatment guidelines could reduce CD4 testing a further 28.9%, an additional annual savings of US$600 000. CD4 tests conducted during periods of potentially reduced monitoring were rarely <200 cells/µL: 1.1% of the tests conducted when minimal monitoring was recommended and just 0.3% of tests conducted when optional monitoring was recommended were less than this value. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced CD4 monitoring of HIV-infected patients would result in modest cost savings and likely reduce patient anxiety, with little or no impact on the quality of care. Veterans Affairs has made substantial progress in reducing the frequency of optional CD4 testing, but further reductions may still be warranted.

Nurse workforce characteristics and infection risk in VA Community Living Centers: a longitudinal analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To examine effects of workforce characteristics on resident infections in Veterans Affairs (VA) Community Living Centers (CLCs). DATA SOURCES: A 6-year panel of monthly, unit-specific data included workforce characteristics (from the VA Decision Support System and Payroll data) and characteristics of residents and outcome measures (from the Minimum Data Set). STUDY DESIGN: A resident infection composite was the dependent variable. Workforce characteristics of registered nurses (RN), licensed practical nurses (LPN), nurse aides (NA), and contract nurses included: staffing levels, skill mix, and tenure. Descriptive statistics and unit-level fixed effects regressions were conducted. Robustness checks varying workforce and outcome parameters were examined. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Average nursing hours per resident day was 4.59 hours (SD=1.21). RN tenure averaged 4.7 years (SD=1.64) and 4.2 years for both LPN (SD=1.84) and NA (SD=1.72). In multivariate analyses RN and LPN tenure were associated with decreased infections by 3.8% (incident rate ratio [IRR]=0.962, P<0.01) and 2% (IRR=0.98, P<0.01) respectively. Robustness checks consistently found RN and LPN tenure to be associated with decreased infections. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing RN and LPN tenure are likely to reduce CLC resident infections. Administrators and policymakers need to focus on recruiting and retaining a skilled nursing workforce.

Night and day in the VA: associations between night shift staffing, nurse workforce characteristics, and length of stay.

In hospitals, nurses provide patient care around the clock, but the impact of night staff characteristics on patient outcomes is not well understood. The aim of this study was to examine the association between night nurse staffing and workforce characteristics and the length of stay (LOS) in 138 veterans affairs (VA) hospitals using panel data from 2002 through 2006. Staffing in hours per patient day was higher during the day than at night. The day nurse workforce had more educational preparation than the night workforce. Nurses' years of experience at the unit, facility, and VA level were greater at night. In multivariable analyses controlling for confounding variables, higher night staffing and a higher skill mix were associated with reduced LOS.

Racial/ethnic disparities in costs, length of stay, and severity of severe maternal morbidity.

BACKGROUND: In contrast to other high-resource countries, the United States has experienced increases in the rates of severe maternal morbidity. In addition, the United States has pronounced racial and ethnic disparities in severe maternal morbidity, especially for non-Hispanic Black people, who have twice the rate as non-Hispanic White people. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine whether the racial and ethnic disparities in severe maternal morbidity extended beyond the rates of these complications to include disparities in maternal costs and lengths of stay, which could indicate differences in the case severity. STUDY DESIGN: This study used California's linkage of birth certificates to inpatient maternal and infant discharge data for 2009 to 2011. Of the 1.5 million linked records, 250,000 were excluded because of incomplete data, for a final sample of 1,262,862. Cost-to-charge ratios were used to estimate costs from charges (including readmissions) after adjusting for inflation to December 2017. Mean diagnosis-related group-specific reimbursement was used to estimate physician payments. We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention definition of severe maternal morbidity, including readmissions up to 42 days after delivery. Adjusted Poisson regression models estimated the differential risk of severe maternal morbidity for each racial or ethnic group, compared with the non-Hispanic White group. Generalized linear models estimated the associations of race and ethnicity with costs and length of stay. RESULTS: Asian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and other race or ethnicity patients all had higher rates of severe maternal morbidity than non-Hispanic White patients. The largest disparity was between non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Black patients, with unadjusted overall rates of severe maternal morbidity of 1.34% and 2.62%, respectively (adjusted risk ratio, 1.61; P<.001). Among patients with severe maternal morbidity, the adjusted regression estimates showed that non-Hispanic Black patients had 23% (P<.001) higher costs (marginal effect of $5023) and 24% (P<.001) longer hospital stays (marginal effect of 1.4 days) than non-Hispanic White patients. These effects changed when cases, such as cases where a blood transfusion was the only indication of severe maternal morbidity, were excluded, with 29% higher costs (P<.001) and 15% longer length of stay (P<.001). For other racial and ethnic groups, the increases in costs and length of stay were smaller than those observed for non-Hispanic Black patients, and many were not significantly different from non-Hispanic White patients. Hispanic patients had higher rates of severe maternal morbidity than non-Hispanic White patients; however, Hispanic patients had significantly lower costs and length of stay than non-Hispanic White patients. CONCLUSION: There were racial and ethnic differences in the costs and length of stay among patients with severe maternal morbidity across the groupings that we examined. The differences were especially large for non-Hispanic Black patients compared with non-Hispanic White patients. Non-Hispanic Black patients experienced twice the rate of severe maternal morbidity; in addition, the higher relative costs and longer lengths of stay for non-Hispanic Black patients with severe maternal morbidity support greater case severity in that population. These findings suggest that efforts to address racial and ethnic inequities in maternal health need to consider differences in case severity in addition to the differences in the rates of severe maternal morbidity and that these differences in case severity merit additional investigation.

Timeliness and Adequacy of Prenatal Care Among Department of Veterans Affairs-Enrolled Veterans: The First Step May Be the Biggest Hurdle.

INTRODUCTION: Little is known about access to and use of prenatal care by veterans using U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) maternity benefits. We compared the timeliness and adequacy of prenatal care by veteran status and payor. STUDY DESIGN: We used VA clinical and admistrative data linked with California vital statistics patient discharge data to identify all births to VA-enrolled veterans and non-veterans between 2000 and 2012. Births were categorized based on veteran status and payor (non-veterans with Medicaid, non-veterans with private insurance, VA-enrolled veterans using VA maternity care benefits, and VA-enrolled veterans with other payor). Outcomes were timeliness of prenatal care (initiation before the end of the first trimester) and adequacy of prenatal care as measured by the Kotelchuck Index (inadequate, intermediate, adequate). Covariates included demographic, health, and pregnancy characteristics. We used generalized linear models and multinomial logistic regression to analyze the association of veteran status and payor with timeliness of prenatal care and adequacy of prenatal care, respectively. RESULTS: We identified 6,196,432 births among VA-enrolled veterans (n = 17,495) and non-veterans (n = 6,178,937). Non-veterans using Medicaid had the lowest percentage of timely prenatal care (78.1%; n = 2,240,326), followed by VA-enrolled veterans using VA maternity care benefits (82.8%; n = 1,248). VA-enrolled veterans using VA maternity care benefits were the most likely to receive adequate prenatal care (92.0%; n = 1,365). Results remained consistent after adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides key baseline data regarding access to and use of prenatal care by veterans using VA maternity benefits. Longitudinal studies including more recent data are needed to understand the impact of changing VA policy.

Understanding the relative contributions of prematurity and congenital anomalies to neonatal mortality.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relative contributions of preterm delivery and congenital anomalies to neonatal mortality. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of 2009-2011 linked birth cohort-hospital discharge files for California, Missouri, Pennsylvania and South Carolina. Deaths were classified by gestational age and three definitions of congenital anomaly: any ICD-9 code for an anomaly, any anomaly with a significant mortality risk, and anomalies recorded on the death certificate. RESULT: In total, 59% of the deaths had an ICD-9 code for an anomaly, only 43% had a potentially fatal anomaly, and only 34% had a death certificate anomaly. Preterm infants (<37 weeks GA) accounted for 80% of deaths; those preterm infants without a potentially fatal anomaly diagnosis comprised 53% of all neonatal deaths. The share of preterm deaths with a potentially fatal anomaly decreases with GA. CONCLUSION: Congenital anomalies are responsible for about 40% of neonatal deaths while preterm without anomalies are responsible for over 50%.

The effect of severe maternal morbidity on infant costs and lengths of stay.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between severe maternal morbidity (SMM) and infant health using the additional infant costs and length of stay (LOS) as markers of added clinical complexity. STUDY DESIGN: Secondary data analysis using California linked birth certificate-patient discharge data for 2009-2011 (N = 1,260,457). Regression models were used to estimate the association between SMM and infant costs and LOS. RESULTS: The 16,687 SMM-exposed infants experienced a $6550 (33%) increase in costs and a 0.7 (18%) day increase in LOS. Preterm infants had ($11,258 (18%) added costs and 1.3 days (8.1%) longer LOS) than term infants ($2539 (38%) added costs and 0.5 days (22%) longer LOS). CONCLUSIONS: SMM was associated with increased infant costs and LOS, suggesting that SMM may have adverse health effects for infants, including term infants. The relatively larger effect on costs indicates an increase in treatment intensity (clinical severity) greater than additional LOS.

A Comprehensive Analysis of the Costs of Severe Maternal Morbidity.

INTRODUCTION: The objectives of this study were to include readmissions and physician costs in the estimates of total costs of severe maternal morbidity (SMM), to consider the effect of SMM on maternal length of stay (LOS), and to examine these for the more restricted definition of SMM that excludes transfusion-only cases. METHODS: California linked birth certificate-patient discharge data for 2009 through 2011 (n = 1,262,862) with complete costs and LOS were used in a secondary data analysis. Cost-to-charge ratios were used to estimate costs from charges, adjusting for inflation. Physician payments were estimated from the mean payments for specific diagnosis-related groups. Generalized linear models estimated the association between SMM and costs and LOS. RESULTS: Excluding readmissions and physician costs, SMM was associated with a 60% increase in hospital costs (marginal effect [ME] $3,550) and a 33% increase in LOS (ME 0.9 days). These increased to 70% (ME $5,806) and 46% (ME 1.3 days) when physician costs and readmissions were included. The effects of SMM were roughly one-half as large for patients who only required a blood transfusion (49% [ME $4,056] and 31% [ME 0.9 days]) as for patients who had another indicator for SMM (93% [ME $7,664] and 62% [ME 1.7 days]). CONCLUSIONS: Postpartum hospital readmissions and physician costs are important and previously unreported contributors to the costs of SMM. Excess costs and LOS associated with SMM vary considerably by indication. Cost effects were larger than the LOS effects, indicating that SMM increases treatment intensity beyond increasing LOS, and decreasing SMM may have broader health and cost benefits than previously understood.

The effect of data aggregation on estimations of nurse staffing and patient outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To examine how estimates of the association between nurse staffing and patient length of stay (LOS) change with data aggregation over varying time periods and settings, and statistical controls for unobserved heterogeneity. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Longitudinal secondary data from October 2002 to September 2006 for 215 intensive care units and 438 general acute care units at 143 facilities in the Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system. RESEARCH DESIGN: This retrospective observational study used unit-level panel data to analyze the association between nurse staffing and LOS. This association was measured over both a month-long and a year-long period, with and without fixed effects. DATA COLLECTION: We used VA administrative data to obtain patient data on the severity of illness and LOS, as well as labor hours and wages for each unit by month. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Overall, shorter LOS was associated with higher nurse staffing hours and lower proportions of hours provided by licensed professional nurses (LPNs), unlicensed personnel, and contract staff. Estimates of the association between nurse staffing and LOS changed in magnitude when aggregating data over years instead of months, in different settings, and when controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: Estimating the association between nurse staffing and LOS is contingent on the time period of analysis and specific methodology. In future studies, researchers should be aware of these differences when exploring nurse staffing and patient outcomes.

Incidence and outcomes of patients with atrial fibrillation and major bleeding complications: from the TREAT-AF study.

PURPOSE: Optimal stroke prevention strategies for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who experience a major bleed are poorly defined. We sought to estimate the effectiveness and safety of oral anticoagulation (OAC) represcription after an OAC contraindication. METHODS: TREAT-AF is a retrospective cohort study of patients with newly diagnosed AF (2004-2012), treated in the Veterans Health Administration. From this cohort, we identified patients with a contraindication to OAC after AF diagnoses, defined as incident intracranial bleeding, non-intracranial bleeding requiring hospitalization, or unrepaired cerebral aneurysm or aortic dissection. We used multivariate Cox proportional hazards to estimate the association of OAC prescription in the 90 days following OAC contraindication to ischemic stroke and rebleeding. RESULTS: Among 167,190 patients with newly diagnosed AF (70 ± 11 years, 1.7% female, CHA2DS2-VASc 2.7 ± 1.7), 19,285 patients (11.5%) had an incident bleed (n = 18,342) or an unrepaired cerebral aneurysm or aortic dissection (n = 943). For OAC-contraindicated patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2 (N = 16,194), OAC was represcribed in 4075 patients (25%) and was associated with a higher risk of non-intracranial bleeding (HR 1.49; 95% CI 1.37-1.61; p < 0.0001) but no difference in intracranial bleeding. There was a trend toward decreased stroke risk (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.71-1.02; p 0.09). CONCLUSIONS: Development of contraindication to OAC after diagnosis of AF is common (11.5%), with most events requiring hospitalization. OAC reinitiation was associated with non-intracranial bleeding risk, with a trend toward reduced stroke risk. These data suggest that stroke prevention approaches after major bleeding events could be beneficial if bleeding risk can be successfully mitigated.

Level and volume of neonatal intensive care and mortality in very-low-birth-weight infants.

BACKGROUND: There has been a large increase in both the number of neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) in community hospitals and the complexity of the cases treated in these units. We examined differences in neonatal mortality among infants with very low birth weight (below 1500 g) among NICUs with various levels of care and different volumes of very-low-birth-weight infants. METHODS: We linked birth certificates, hospital discharge abstracts (including interhospital transfers), and fetal and infant death certificates to assess neonatal mortality rates among 48,237 very-low-birth-weight infants who were born in California hospitals between 1991 and 2000. RESULTS: Mortality rates among very-low-birth-weight infants varied according to both the volume of patients and the level of care at the delivery hospital. The effect of volume also varied according to the level of care. As compared with a high level of care and a high volume of very-low-birth-weight infants (more than 100 per year), lower levels of care and lower volumes (except for those of two small groups of hospitals) were associated with significantly higher odds ratios for death, ranging from 1.19 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04 to 1.37) to 2.72 (95% CI, 2.37 to 3.12). Less than one quarter of very-low-birth-weight deliveries occurred in facilities with NICUs that offered a high level of care and had a high volume, but 92% of very-low-birth-weight deliveries occurred in urban areas with more than 100 such deliveries. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality among very-low-birth-weight infants was lowest for deliveries that occurred in hospitals with NICUs that had both a high level of care and a high volume of such patients. Our results suggest that increased use of such facilities might reduce mortality among very-low-birth-weight infants.

Atrial Fibrillation Burden Signature and Near-Term Prediction of Stroke: A Machine Learning Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of stroke 5-fold and there is rising interest to determine if AF severity or burden can further risk stratify these patients, particularly for near-term events. Using continuous remote monitoring data from cardiac implantable electronic devices, we sought to evaluate if machine learned signatures of AF burden could provide prognostic information on near-term risk of stroke when compared to conventional risk scores. METHODS AND RESULTS: We retrospectively identified Veterans Health Administration serviced patients with cardiac implantable electronic device remote monitoring data and at least one day of device-registered AF. The first 30 days of remote monitoring in nonstroke controls were compared against the past 30 days of remote monitoring before stroke in cases. We trained 3 types of models on our data: (1) convolutional neural networks, (2) random forest, and (3) L1 regularized logistic regression (LASSO). We calculated the CHA2DS2-VASc score for each patient and compared its performance against machine learned indices based on AF burden in separate test cohorts. Finally, we investigated the effect of combining our AF burden models with CHA2DS2-VASc. We identified 3114 nonstroke controls and 71 stroke cases, with no significant differences in baseline characteristics. Random forest performed the best in the test data set (area under the curve [AUC]=0.662) and convolutional neural network in the validation dataset (AUC=0.702), whereas CHA2DS2-VASc had an AUC of 0.5 or less in both data sets. Combining CHA2DS2-VASc with random forest and convolutional neural network yielded a validation AUC of 0.696 and test AUC of 0.634, yielding the highest average AUC on nontraining data. CONCLUSIONS: This proof-of-concept study found that machine learning and ensemble methods that incorporate daily AF burden signature provided incremental prognostic value for risk stratification beyond CHA2DS2-VASc for near-term risk of stroke.

Selection of Higher Risk Pregnancies into Veterans Health Administration Programs: Discoveries from Linked Department of Veterans Affairs and California Birth Data.

OBJECTIVE: To describe variation in payer and outcomes in Veterans' births. DATA/SETTING: Secondary data analyses of deliveries in California, 2000-2012. STUDY DESIGN: We performed a retrospective, population-based study of all live births to Veterans (confirmed via U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) enrollment records), to identify payer and variations in outcomes among: (1) Veterans using VA coverage and (2) Veteran vs. all other births. We calculated odds ratios (aOR) adjusted for age, race, ethnicity, education, and obstetric demographics. METHODS: We anonymously linked VA administrative data for all female VA enrollees with California birth records. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From 2000 to 2012, we identified 17,495 births to Veterans. VA covered 8.6 percent (1,508), Medicaid 17.3 percent, and Private insurance 47.6 percent. Veterans who relied on VA health coverage had more preeclampsia (aOR 1.4, CI 1.0-1.8) and more cesarean births (aOR 1.2, CI 1.0-1.3), and, despite similar prematurity, trended toward more neonatal intensive care (NICU) admissions (aOR 1.2, CI 1.0-1.4) compared to Veterans using other (non-Medicaid) coverage. Overall, Veterans' birth outcomes (all-payer) mirrored California's birth outcomes, with the exception of excess NICU care (aOR 1.15, CI 1.1-1.2). CONCLUSIONS: VA covers a higher risk fraction of Veterans' births, justifying maternal care coordination and attention to the maternal-fetal impacts of Veterans' comorbidities.

Treating Specialty and Outcomes in Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation: From the TREAT-AF Study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) occurs in many clinical contexts and is diagnosed and treated by clinicians across many specialties. This approach has resulted in treatment variations. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to evaluate the association between treating specialty and AF outcomes among patients newly diagnosed with AF. METHODS: Using data from the TREAT-AF (Retrospective Evaluation and Assessment of Therapies in AF) study from the Veterans Health Administration, patients with newly diagnosed, nonvalvular AF between 2004 and 2012 were identified who had at least 1 outpatient encounter with primary care or cardiology within 90 days of the AF diagnosis. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate the association between treating specialty and AF outcomes. RESULTS: Among 184,161 patients with newly diagnosed AF (age 70 ± 11 years; 1.7% women; CHA2DS2-VASc score 2.6 ± 1.7), 40% received cardiology care and 60% received primary care only. After adjustment for covariates, cardiology care was associated with reductions in stroke (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.91; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.86 to 0.96; p < 0.001) and death (HR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.88 to 0.91; p < 0.0001) and increases in hospitalizations for AF/supraventricular tachycardia (HR: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.35 to 1.42; p < 0.0001) and myocardial infarction (HR: 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.05; p < 0.04). The propensity-matched cohort had similar results. In mediation analysis, oral anticoagulation prescription within 90 days of diagnosis may have mediated reductions in stroke but did not mediate reductions in survival. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with newly diagnosed AF, cardiology care was associated with improved outcomes, potentially mediated by early prescription of oral anticoagulation therapy. Although hypothesis-generating, these data warrant serious consideration and study of health care system interventions at the time of new AF diagnosis.

Impact of Baseline Stroke Risk and Bleeding Risk on Warfarin International Normalized Ratio Control in Atrial Fibrillation (from the TREAT-AF Study).

Warfarin prevents stroke and prolongs survival in patients with atrial fibrillation and flutter (AF, collectively) but can cause hemorrhage. The time in international normalized ratio (INR) therapeutic range (TTR) mediates stroke reduction and bleeding risk. This study sought to determine the relation between baseline stroke, bleeding risk, and TTR. Using data from The Retrospective Evaluation and Assessment of Therapies in Atrial Fibrillation (TREAT-AF) retrospective cohort study, national Veterans Health Administration records were used to identify patients with newly diagnosed AF from 2003 to 2012 and subsequent initiation of warfarin. Baseline stroke and bleeding risk was determined by calculating CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores, respectively. Main outcomes were first-year and long-term TTR and INR monitoring rate. In 167,190 patients, the proportion of patients with TTR (>65%) decreased across increasing strata of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED. After covariate adjustment, odds of achieving TTR >65% were significantly associated with high CHA2DS2-VASc or HAS-BLED score. INR monitoring rate was similar across risk strata. In conclusion, increased baseline stroke and bleeding risk is associated with poor INR control, despite similar rates of INR monitoring. These findings may paradoxically limit warfarin's efficacy and safety in high-risk patients and may explain observed increased bleeding and stroke rates in this cohort.

Estimates of the cost and length of stay changes that can be attributed to one-week increases in gestational age for premature infants.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the potential savings, both in terms of costs and lengths of stay, of one-week increases in gestational age for premature infants. The purpose is to provide population-based data that can be used to assess the potential savings of interventions that delay premature delivery. DATA: Cohort data for all births in California in 1998-2000 that linked vital records data with those from hospital discharge abstracts, including those of neonatal transport. All infants with a gestational age between 24 and 37 weeks were included. There were 193,167 infants in the sample after deleting cases with incomplete data or gestational age that was inconsistent with birth weight. METHODS: Hospital costs were estimated by adjusting charges by hospital-specific costs-to-charges ratios. Data were aggregated across transport into episodes of care. Mean and median potential savings were calculated for increasing gestational age, in one-week intervals. The 25th and 75th percentiles were used to estimate ranges. RESULTS: The results are presented in matrix format, for starting gestational ages of 24-34 weeks, with ending gestational ages of 25 to 37 weeks. Costs and lengths of stay decreased with gestational age from a median of $216,814 (92 days) at 24 weeks to $591 (2 days) at 37 weeks. The potential savings from delaying premature labor are quite large; the median savings for a 2 week increase in gestational age were between $28,870 and $64,021 for gestational ages below 33 weeks, with larger savings for longer delays in delivery. Delaying deliveries <29 weeks to term (37 weeks) resulted in savings of over $122,000 per case, with the savings being over $206,000 for deliveries <26 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide population-based data that can be applied to clinical trials data to assess the impacts on costs and lengths of stay of interventions that delay premature labor. They show that the potential savings of delaying premature labor are quite large, especially for extremely premature deliveries.