Case-control study developing Scottish Epilepsy Deaths Study Score to predict epilepsy-related death.

This study aimed to develop a risk prediction model for epilepsy-related death in adults. In this age- and sex-matched case-control study, we compared adults (aged ≥16 years) who had epilepsy-related death between 2009 and 2016 to living adults with epilepsy in Scotland. Cases were identified from validated administrative national datasets linked to mortality records. ICD-10 cause-of-death coding was used to define epilepsy-related death. Controls were recruited from a research database and epilepsy clinics. Clinical data from medical records were abstracted and used to undertake univariable and multivariable conditional logistic regression to develop a risk prediction model consisting of four variables chosen a priori. A weighted sum of the factors present was taken to create a risk index-the Scottish Epilepsy Deaths Study Score. Odds ratios were estimated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Here, 224 deceased cases (mean age 48 years, 114 male) and 224 matched living controls were compared. In univariable analysis, predictors of epilepsy-related death were recent epilepsy-related accident and emergency attendance (odds ratio 5.1, 95% CI 3.2-8.3), living in deprived areas (odds ratio 2.5, 95% CI 1.6-4.0), developmental epilepsy (odds ratio 3.1, 95% CI 1.7-5.7), raised Charlson Comorbidity Index score (odds ratio 2.5, 95% CI 1.2-5.2), alcohol abuse (odds ratio 4.4, 95% CI 2.2-9.2), absent recent neurology review (odds ratio 3.8, 95% CI 2.4-6.1) and generalized epilepsy (odds ratio 1.9, 95% CI 1.2-3.0). Scottish Epilepsy Deaths Study Score model variables were derived from the first four listed before, with Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥2 given 1 point, living in the two most deprived areas given 2 points, having an inherited or congenital aetiology or risk factor for developing epilepsy given 2 points and recent epilepsy-related accident and emergency attendance given 3 points. Compared to having a Scottish Epilepsy Deaths Study Score of 0, those with a Scottish Epilepsy Deaths Study Score of 1 remained low risk, with odds ratio 1.6 (95% CI 0.5-4.8). Those with a Scottish Epilepsy Deaths Study Score of 2-3 had moderate risk, with odds ratio 2.8 (95% CI 1.3-6.2). Those with a Scottish Epilepsy Deaths Study Score of 4-5 and 6-8 were high risk, with odds ratio 14.4 (95% CI 5.9-35.2) and 24.0 (95% CI 8.1-71.2), respectively. The Scottish Epilepsy Deaths Study Score may be a helpful tool for identifying adults at high risk of epilepsy-related death and requires external validation.

Systematic map of recent evidence on reproductive performance of cattle in Africa.

Good cattle reproductive performance is essential for livestock productivity. Farmers are highly dependent on the success of productive outputs to support their livelihoods. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), however, optimal reproduction of cows and bulls is comparatively less well defined, with information on key reproductive parameters and reproductive management often not available. The aim of this study was to collate and synthesise the recent published evidence on cattle reproductive performance in selected sub-Saharan countries.Systematic mapping methodology was used, with searches conducted for both cow and bull reproductive performance in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, for the period 2012-2022, in English language. Search returns were screened for relevance at title and abstract, and full-text levels, based on the research question criteria.A substantial number of studies were identified for cows (n = 133), but only very few for bulls (n = 11). A large proportion of reported studies have been conducted in Ethiopia, with relatively few from the other countries, and most studies published between 2014 and 2016, and in 2021. Certain reproductive parameters received more attention than others; calving interval was reported in 86 studies, while culling due to infertility was reported in eight studies.The study highlights where research is being conducted in this area, and importantly where there is a gap, in particular on bull reproductive performance. While there were a range of values reported for cow reproductive parameters, the values were reasonable, indicating that it is possible to have good reproductive performance in LMICs. The synthesis of studies in the map should help to inform farmers and their advisors, at farm and national levels.

A national study of epilepsy-related deaths in Scotland: Trends, mechanisms, and avoidable deaths.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to investigate the trends and mechanisms of epilepsy-related deaths in Scotland, highlighting the proportion that were potentially avoidable. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational data-linkage study of administrative data from 2009-2016. We linked nationwide data encompassing mortality records, hospital admissions, outpatient attendance, antiepileptic drug (AED) prescriptions, and regional primary care attendances. Adults (aged ≥16 years) suffering epilepsy-related death were identified for study using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision coding combined with AED prescriptions. We reported epilepsy-related mortality rate (MR), age-specific mortality ratios, multiple cause-of-death frequencies, and the proportion of potentially avoidable deaths (identified as those with an underlying cause listed as avoidable by the Office for National Statistics). RESULTS: A total of 1921 epilepsy-related deaths were identified across Scotland; 1185 (62%) decedents were hospitalized for seizures in the years leading up to death, yet only 518 (27%) were seen in a neurology clinic during the same period. MR remained unchanged over time, ranging from 5.9 to 8.7 per 100 000 Scottish population (95% confidence interval [CI] = -.05 to .66 per 100 000 for annual change in MR). Mortality ratios were significantly increased in young adults aged 16-54 years (2.3, 95% CI = 1.8-2.8), peaking at age 16-24 years (5.3, 95% CI = 1.8-8.8). Sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) constituted 30% of the 553 young adult epilepsy-related deaths, with several other non-SUDEP fatal mechanisms identified including aspiration pneumonia, cardiac arrest, AED or narcotic poisoning, drowning, and alcohol dependence. Seventy-six percent of young adult epilepsy-related deaths were potentially avoidable. SIGNIFICANCE: Epilepsy-related deaths are a major public health problem in Scotland, given that they are not reducing, people are dying young, and many deaths are potentially avoidable. SUDEP is only one of several important mechanisms by which epilepsy-related deaths are occurring in young adults. Services may need to be re-evaluated to improve specialist referral following seizure-related hospital admissions.

Antiherpetic medication and incident dementia: Observational cohort studies in four countries.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Several epidemiological studies from Taiwan, all using the same data resource, found significant associations between herpes virus infection, antiherpetic medication, and subsequent dementia. We conducted a multicenter observational cohort study using health registry data from Wales, Germany, Scotland, and Denmark to investigate potential associations between antiherpetic medication and incident dementia, and also to comprehensively investigate such associations broken down according to medication type and dose, type of herpes virus, and dementia subtype. METHODS: A total of 2.5 million individuals aged 65 years or more were followed up using linked electronic health records in four national observational cohort studies. Exposure and outcome were classified using coded data from primary and secondary care. Data were analyzed using survival analysis with time-dependent covariates. RESULTS: Results were heterogeneous, with a tendency toward decreased dementia risk in individuals exposed to antiherpetic medication. Associations were not affected by treatment number, herpes subtype, dementia subtype, or specific medication. In one cohort, individuals diagnosed with herpes but not exposed to antiherpetic medication were at higher dementia risk. CONCLUSIONS: Short-term antiherpetic medication is not markedly associated with incident dementia. Because neither dementia subtype nor herpes subtype modified the association, the small but significant decrease in dementia incidence with antiherpetic administration may reflect confounding and misclassification.

Socio-economic predictors of time to care home admission in people living with dementia in Wales: A routine data linkage study.

OBJECTIVES: Limited research has shown that people with dementia (PwD) from lower socio-economic backgrounds can face difficulties in accessing the right care at the right time. This study examined whether socio-economic status (SES) and rural versus urban living location are associated with the time between diagnosis and care home admission in PwD living in Wales, UK. METHODS/DESIGN: This study linked routine health data and an e-cohort of PwD who have been admitted into a care home between 2000 and 2018 living in Wales. Survival analysis explored the effects of SES, living location, living situation, and frailty on the time between diagnosis and care home admission. RESULTS: In 34,514 PwD, the average time between diagnosis and care home admission was 1.5 (±1.4) years. Cox regression analysis showed that increased age, living alone, frailty, and living in less disadvantaged neighbourhoods were associated with faster rate to care home admission. Living in rural regions predicted a slower rate until care home admission. CONCLUSIONS: This is one of the first studies to show a link between socio-economic factors on time to care home admission in dementia. Future research needs to address variations in care needs between PwD from different socio-economic and geographical backgrounds.

The accuracy of using administrative healthcare data to identify epilepsy cases: A systematic review of validation studies.

Our objective was to undertake a systematic review ascertaining the accuracy of using administrative healthcare data to identify epilepsy cases. We searched MEDLINE and Embase from 01/01/1975 to 03/07/2018 for studies evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of routinely collected healthcare data in identifying epilepsy cases. Any disease coding system in use since the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) was permissible. Two authors independently screened studies, extracted data, and quality-assessed studies. We assessed positive predictive value (PPV), sensitivity, negative predictive value (NPV), and specificity. The primary analysis was a narrative synthesis of review findings. Thirty studies were included, published between 1989 and 2018. Risks of bias were low, high, and unclear in 4, 14, and 12 studies, respectively. Coding systems included ICD-9, ICD-10, and Read Codes, with or without antiepileptic drugs (AEDs). PPVs included ranges of 5.2%-100% (Canada), 32.7%-96.0% (USA), 47.0%-100% (UK), and 37.0%-88.0% (Norway). Sensitivities included ranges of 22.2%-99.7% (Canada), 12.2%-97.3% (USA), and 79.0%-94.0% (UK). Nineteen studies contained at least one algorithm with a PPV >80%. Sixteen studies contained at least one algorithm with a sensitivity >80%. PPV was highest in algorithms consisting of disease codes (ICD-10 G40-41, ICD-9 345) in combination with one or more AEDs. The addition of symptom codes to this (ICD-10 R56; ICD-9 780.3, 780.39) lowered PPV. Sensitivity was highest in algorithms consisting of symptom codes with one or more AEDs. Although using AEDs alone achieved high sensitivities, the associated PPVs were low. Most NPVs and specificities were >90%. We conclude that it is reasonable to use administrative data to identify people with epilepsy (PWE) in epidemiological research. Studies prioritizing high PPVs should focus on combining disease codes with AEDs. Studies prioritizing high sensitivities should focus on combining symptom codes with AEDs. We caution against the use of AEDs alone to identify PWE.

Identifying dementia outcomes in UK Biobank: a validation study of primary care, hospital admissions and mortality data.

Prospective, population-based studies that recruit participants in mid-life are valuable resources for dementia research. Follow-up in these studies is often through linkage to routinely-collected healthcare datasets. We investigated the accuracy of these datasets for dementia case ascertainment in a validation study using data from UK Biobank-an open access, population-based study of > 500,000 adults aged 40-69 years at recruitment in 2006-2010. From 17,198 UK Biobank participants recruited in Edinburgh, we identified those with ≥ 1 dementia code in their linked primary care, hospital admissions or mortality data and compared their coded diagnoses to clinical expert adjudication of their full-text medical record. We calculated the positive predictive value (PPV, the proportion of cases identified that were true positives) for all-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia for each dataset alone and in combination, and explored algorithmic code combinations to improve PPV. Among 120 participants, PPVs for all-cause dementia were 86.8%, 87.3% and 80.0% for primary care, hospital admissions and mortality data respectively and 82.5% across all datasets. We identified three algorithms that balanced a high PPV with reasonable case ascertainment. For Alzheimer's disease, PPVs were 74.1% for primary care, 68.2% for hospital admissions, 50.0% for mortality data and 71.4% in combination. PPV for vascular dementia was 43.8% across all sources. UK routinely-collected healthcare data can be used to identify all-cause dementia in prospective studies. PPVs for Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia are lower. Further research is required to explore the geographic generalisability of these findings.

Predicting incident dementia 3-8 years after brief cognitive tests in the UK Biobank prospective study of 500,000 people.

INTRODUCTION: Prospective studies reporting associations between cognitive performance and subsequent incident dementia have been subject to attrition bias. Furthermore, the extent to which established risk factors account for such associations requires further elucidation. METHODS: We used UK Biobank baseline cognitive data (n ≤ 488,130) and electronically linked hospital inpatient and death records during three- to eight-year follow-up, to estimate risk of total dementia (n = 1051), Alzheimer's disease (n = 352), and vascular dementia (n = 169) according to four brief cognitive tasks, with/without adjustment for constitutional and modifiable risk factors. RESULTS: We found associations of cognitive task performance with all-cause and cause-specific dementia (P <  .01); these were not accounted for by established risk factors. Cognitive data added up to 5% to the discriminative accuracy of receiver operating characteristic curve models; areas under the curve ranged from 82% to 86%. DISCUSSION: This study offers robust evidence that brief cognitive testing could be a valuable addition to dementia prediction models.

Identifying dementia cases with routinely collected health data: A systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Prospective, population-based studies can be rich resources for dementia research. Follow-up in many such studies is through linkage to routinely collected, coded health-care data sets. We evaluated the accuracy of these data sets for dementia case identification. METHODS: We systematically reviewed the literature for studies comparing dementia coding in routinely collected data sets to any expert-led reference standard. We recorded study characteristics and two accuracy measures-positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity. RESULTS: We identified 27 eligible studies with 25 estimating PPV and eight estimating sensitivity. Study settings and methods varied widely. For all-cause dementia, PPVs ranged from 33%-100%, but 16/27 were >75%. Sensitivities ranged from 21% to 86%. PPVs for Alzheimer's disease (range 57%-100%) were generally higher than those for vascular dementia (range 19%-91%). DISCUSSION: Linkage to routine health-care data can achieve a high PPV and reasonable sensitivity in certain settings. Given the heterogeneity in accuracy estimates, cohorts should ideally conduct their own setting-specific validation.

Vaccination of cattle with the N terminus of LppQ of Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides results in type III immune complex disease upon experimental infection.

Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is a serious respiratory disease of cattle caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides. Current vaccines against CBPP induce short-lived immunity and can cause severe postvaccine reactions. Previous studies have identified the N terminus of the transmembrane lipoprotein Q (LppQ-N') of M. mycoides subsp. mycoides as the major antigen and a possible virulence factor. We therefore immunized cattle with purified recombinant LppQ-N' formulated in Freund's adjuvant and challenged them with M. mycoides subsp. mycoides. Vaccinated animals showed a strong seroconversion to LppQ, but they exhibited significantly enhanced postchallenge glomerulonephritis compared to the placebo group (P = 0.021). Glomerulonephritis was characterized by features that suggested the development of antigen-antibody immune complexes. Clinical signs and gross pathological scores did not significantly differ between vaccinated and placebo groups. These findings reveal for the first time the pathogenesis of enhanced disease as a result of antibodies against LppQ during challenge and also argue against inclusion of LppQ-N' in a future subunit vaccine for CBPP.

Prescribed Drug Use and Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Incidence: A Drug-Wide Association Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Current benefits of invasive intracranial aneurysm treatment to prevent aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) rarely outweigh treatment risks. Most intracranial aneurysms thus remain untreated. Commonly prescribed drugs reducing aSAH incidence may provide leads for drug repurposing. We performed a drug-wide association study (DWAS) to systematically investigate the association between commonly prescribed drugs and aSAH incidence. METHODS: We defined all aSAH cases between 2000 and 2020 using International Classification of Diseases codes from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank. Each case was matched with 9 controls based on age, sex, and year of database entry. We investigated commonly prescribed drugs (>2% in study population) and defined 3 exposure windows relative to the most recent prescription before index date (i.e., occurrence of aSAH): current (within 3 months), recent (3-12 months), and past (>12 months). A logistic regression model was fitted to compare drug use across these exposure windows vs never use, controlling for age, sex, known aSAH risk factors, and health care utilization. The family-wise error rate was kept at p < 0.05 through Bonferroni correction. RESULTS: We investigated exposure to 205 commonly prescribed drugs between 4,879 aSAH cases (mean age 61.4, 61.2% women) and 43,911 matched controls. We found similar trends for lisinopril and amlodipine, with a decreased aSAH risk for current use (lisinopril odds ratio [OR] 0.63, 95% CI 0.44-0.90, amlodipine OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.65-1.04) and an increased aSAH risk for recent use (lisinopril OR 1.30, 95% CI 0.61-2.78, amlodipine OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.04-2.48). A decreased aSAH risk in current use was also found for simvastatin (OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.64-0.96), metformin (OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.43-0.78), and tamsulosin (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.32-0.93). By contrast, an increased aSAH risk was found for current use of warfarin (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.02-1.79), venlafaxine (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.01-2.75), prochlorperazine (OR 2.15, 95% CI 1.45-3.18), and co-codamol (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.10-1.56). DISCUSSION: We identified several drugs associated with aSAH, of which 5 drugs (lisinopril and possibly amlodipine, simvastatin, metformin, and tamsulosin) showed a decreased aSAH risk. Future research should build on these signals to further assess the effectiveness of these drugs in reducing aSAH incidence. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class III evidence that some commonly prescribed drugs are associated with subsequent development of aSAH.

Cost-benefit analysis of intervention reducing young stock mortality in Ethiopia.

Livestock provide meat, milk, draught labour, are used for breeding, and act as a store of value for smallholder farmers. High young stock mortality (YSM) has the potential to cause significant financial loss. The Young Stock Mortality Reduction Consortium collaborated on a project to deliver a package of basic health and husbandry interventions to reduce YSM for cattle and small ruminants in mixed and pastoral production systems in Ethiopia. Prior to the intervention, YSM rates ranged from 9.8% for calves in mixed systems, to 35.6% for small ruminants in pastoral systems. Proportional reductions YSM from the intervention ranged from 60% for calves and for small ruminants in mixed systems, to 72% for calves in pastoral systems. This brief research report assesses the costs and benefits of the intervention ex-poste to determine its efficiency. NPVs for the intervention (per household) were calculated for a range of benefit periods (from 1 to 20 years), based on the cost of training enumerators and farmers and the net annual household benefits realised within each benefit period. We found in both pastoral and mixed systems the net annual household benefit for the intervention was positive. For pastoral households the intervention achieves a positive NPV after 2 years. For mixed households the intervention achieves a positive NPV after 11 years. Overall, we found the benefits of the intervention exceed the costs, by a very large amount in pastoral systems, and that benefits were larger for households that kept larger numbers of breeding females.

Estimating the cost of young stock mortality in livestock systems-An application to sheep farming in Ethiopia.

Introduction: In sub-Saharan Africa, pre-weaning young stock mortality (YSM) is in the order of 20 to 30% across most livestock species and production systems. High YSM has significant economic implications for livestock keepers, but few studies provide estimates of the "cost of YSM." This study explores a bio-economic herd modeling approach to estimate the "cost of YSM" at farming/livestock system level. Methods: The static zero-growth version of DYNMOD was used to calculate the annual physical and monetary output of a sheep flock consisting of 100 breeding females at different levels of lamb mortality. Production parameter values and prices were taken from recently published research. Calculations were carried out for values of lamb mortality decreasing from 30% to 0% in 5% intervals, with 20% representing the "baseline" YSM. Calculations were repeated for a "high" fertility scenario (100% vs. 59% parturition rate) to gauge the sensitivity of the cost of YSM to another parameter determining flock productivity. Results: The relation of revenue per head and YSM is close to linear over the range of analyzed YSM with 1% decrease in YSM resulting in an increase in revenue per animal of approximately 1%. At the higher fertility rate, the absolute cost of YSM to sheep farmers is higher while the relative increase in revenue per animal resulting from YSM reduction is lower. The estimated difference in revenue of the 100-ewe flock between the 20% and 0% lamb mortality scenarios (at baseline fertility) amounts to approximately USD 90 per additionally surviving lamb, which is far above its market value. Discussion: Reduced lamb mortality ultimately impacts flock revenue through increased sales of "mature" animals, which embody the value of a lamb plus the revenue/profit from raising it to marketable age/weight. The modeling results suggest that foregone profit is an important component of the systemic "cost of YSM." Consequently, expected profit per animal, in addition to its current market value, is essential for estimating the absolute cost of YSM at farming system level.

Mortality in children with epilepsy: Cohort study using the clinical practice research datalink.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate Mortality Rate (MR) in UK children with epilepsy (CWE) compared to children without epilepsy (CWOE), describe causes of death, determine Mortality Rate Ratios (MRRs) for cause-specific mortality, and to analyse the contribution of co-morbidities (respiratory disease, neoplasm, and congenital disorders) to mortality rate. METHOD: Retrospective cohort study of children born between 1998 and 2017, using linked data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold (Set 18). Epilepsy diagnoses were identified using previously validated codes. Causes of death were defined as natural or non-natural. Epilepsy-related deaths in CWE were those where underlying or contributing cause of death was epilepsy, status epilepticus, seizures, ill-defined/unknown cause or sudden death. We used Cox proportional hazard analysis to investigate associations of epilepsy and mortality. RESULTS: There were 1,191,304 children followed for 13,994,916 person-years (median: 12) if which 9665 (0.8%) had epilepsy. Amongst CWE, 3.4% died. MR of CWE was 4.1 (95%CI 3.7-4.6)/1,000 person-years. CWE had an increased adjusted all-cause mortality (MRR 50.9,95%CI 44.8-57.7) compared to CWOE. Amongst the 330 deaths in CWE, 323 (98%) were natural, 7 (2%) non-natural, 80 (24%) epilepsy-related. MRR of non-natural deaths was 2.09 (95%CI 0.92,4.74, p = 0.08). SIGNIFICANCE: Amongst CWE, 3.4% died during the study period. All-cause mortality rate in CWE was 4/1,000 person-years representing a fifty-fold increased mortality risk, after taking into account sex and socioeconomic status, compared to similarly aged children who did not have epilepsy. Causes of death mostly were not seizure-related. Non-natural death in CWE was uncommon.

Epilepsy-related mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: A nationwide study of routine Scottish data.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether epilepsy-related deaths increased during the COVID-19 pandemic and if the proportion with COVID-19 listed as the underlying cause is different between people experiencing epilepsy-related deaths and those experiencing deaths unrelated to epilepsy. METHODS: This was a Scotland-wide, population-based, cross-sectional study of routinely-collected mortality data pertaining to March-August of 2020 (COVID-19 pandemic peak) compared to the corresponding periods in 2015-2019. ICD-10-coded causes of death of deceased people of any age were obtained from a national mortality registry of death certificates in order to identify those experiencing epilepsy-related deaths (coded G40-41), deaths with COVID-19 listed as a cause (coded U07.1-07.2), and deaths unrelated to epilepsy (death without G40-41 coded). The number of epilepsy-related deaths in 2020 were compared to the mean observed through 2015-2019 on an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model (overall, men, women). Proportionate mortality and odds ratios (OR) for deaths with COVID-19 listed as the underlying cause were determined for the epilepsy-related deaths compared to deaths unrelated to epilepsy, reporting 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: A mean number of 164 epilepsy-related deaths occurred through March-August of 2015-2019 (of which a mean of 71 were in women and 93 in men). There were subsequently 189 epilepsy-related deaths during the pandemic March-August 2020 (89 women, 100 men). This was 25 more epilepsy-related deaths (18 women, 7 men) compared to the mean through 2015-2019. The increase in women was beyond the mean year-to-year variation seen in 2015-2019. Proportionate mortality with COVID-19 listed as the underlying cause was similar between people experiencing epilepsy-related deaths (21/189, 11.1%, CI 7.0-16.5%) and deaths unrelated to epilepsy (3,879/27,428, 14.1%, CI 13.7-14.6%), OR 0.76 (CI 0.48-1.20). Ten of 18 excess epilepsy-related deaths in women had COVID-19 listed as an additional cause. CONCLUSIONS: There is little evidence to suggest there have been any major increases in epilepsy-related deaths in Scotland during the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 is a common underlying cause of both epilepsy-related and unrelated deaths.

A high level estimation of the net economic benefits to small-scale livestock producers arising from animal health product distribution initiatives.

Introduction: A fundamental challenge for charities that facilitate distribution of animal health products to small-scale livestock producers (SSPs) in low and middle income countries (LMICs) is identifying the products and market mechanisms that provide the greatest positive impact for SSPs and estimating their associated impact. This paper describes a pragmatic approach to modeling the impact of market-led product distribution initiatives based on estimating the net economic benefit of administration of animal health products. Methods: The model estimates the economic impact of diseases at the individual animal level for poultry, small ruminants, and cattle. The economic impact of mortality and growth inhibition associated with disease are then estimated in conjunction with the losses averted or recovered by preventing or treating the disease. Economic benefit is estimated in 2014-2017 values and also adjusted to 2023 values. The flexible model structure allows for addition of new geographies, new products, and increased granularity of modeled production systems. Results: Applied to the Global Alliance for Livestock Veterinary Medicines (GALVmed) product distribution initiatives conducted in Africa and South Asia (SA) between 2014 and 2017, the model estimates an adjusted total net economic benefit of 139.9 million USD from sales of vaccines and poultry anthelminthics in these initiatives. Within SSA, the greatest net economic benefit was realized from East Coast fever and Newcastle disease vaccines, while in SA, peste des petits ruminants and Newcastle disease vaccines had the greatest net economic benefits. This translated to an adjusted $37.97 of net economic benefit on average per SSP customer, many of whom were small poultry producers. Discussion: While the model currently estimates impacts from mortality and growth inhibition in livestock, there is the potential to extend it to cover impacts of further initiatives, including interventions targeted at diseases that impact production of milk, eggs, and reproduction.

Antipsychotic drug prescribing and mortality in people with dementia before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a retrospective cohort study in Wales, UK.

BACKGROUND: Concerns have been raised that antipsychotic drug prescribing, which has been associated with increased mortality in people with dementia, might have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic due to social restrictions imposed to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used multisource, routinely collected health-care data from Wales, UK to investigate prescribing and mortality variations in people with dementia before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we used individual-level, anonymised, population-scale linked health data to identify adults aged 60 years and older with a diagnosis of dementia in Wales, UK. We used the CVD-COVID-UK initiative to access Welsh routinely collected electronic health record data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. Patients who were alive and registered with a SAIL general practice on Jan 1, 2016, and who received a dementia diagnosis before the age of 60 years and before or during the study period were included. We explored antipsychotic drug prescribing rate changes over 67 months, between Jan 1, 2016, and Aug 1, 2021, overall and stratified by age and dementia subtype. We used time-series analyses to examine all-cause and myocardial infarction and stroke mortality over the study period and identified the leading causes of death in people with dementia between Jan 1, 2020, and Aug 1, 2021. FINDINGS: Of 3 106 690 participants in SAIL between Jan 1, 2016 and Aug 1, 2021, 57 396 people (35 148 [61·2%] women and 22 248 [38·8%] men) met inclusion criteria for this study and contributed 101 428 person-years of follow-up. Of the 57 396 people with dementia, 11 929 (20·8%) were prescribed an antipsychotic drug at any point during follow-up. Accounting for seasonality, antipsychotic drug prescribing increased during the second half of 2019 and throughout 2020. However, the absolute difference in prescribing rates was small, ranging from 1253 prescriptions per 10 000 person-months in March, 2019, to 1305 per 10 000 person-months in September, 2020. All-cause mortality and stroke mortality increased throughout 2020, while myocardial infarction mortality declined. From Jan 1, 2020, to Aug 1, 2021, 1286 (17·1%) of 7508 participants who died had COVID-19 recorded as the underlying cause of death. INTERPRETATION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, antipsychotic drug prescribing in people with dementia in the UK increased slightly; however, it is unlikely that this was solely related to the pandemic and this increase was unlikely to be a major factor in the substantial increase in mortality during 2020. The long-term increase in antipsychotic drug prescribing in younger people and in those with Alzheimer's disease warrants further investigation using resources with access to more granular clinical data. Although deprescribing antipsychotic medications remains an essential aspect of dementia care, the results of this study suggest that changes in prescribing and deprescribing practices as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic are not required. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation (via the British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre led by Health Data Research UK), and the Scottish Neurological Research Fund.

Interventions to reduce camel and small ruminant young stock morbidity and mortality in Ethiopia.

Morbidity and mortality of young stock is a challenge for livestock producers globally. In Ethiopia, where camels and small ruminants (sheep and goats) are essential smallholder and pastoral livestock, young stock losses can cause severe consequences to livelihoods. This pilot study, part of a Government-led Young Stock Mortality Reduction Consortium project, was undertaken to identify and evaluate interventions to reduce young stock mortality in mixed crop-livestock and pastoral production systems in Ethiopia. Pastoralists and mixed crop-livestock farmers were enrolled by convenience sampling across four regions. Households were sampled with questionnaire surveys to establish baseline mortality risk and prevalence of diarrhoea and respiratory disease in animals younger than one year, and followed longitudinally over a one-year period, with final evaluations conducted from March to July 2020. Mortality risk and prevalence of diarrhoea and respiratory disease before and after implementation were compared using Poisson regression models including household as random effect. Prior to intervention, median camel mortality, prevalence of diarrhoea, and respiratory disease across production systems in the different households was 0.4, 0.44 and 0.2, respectively. This compared to median pastoralist small ruminant mortality risk and prevalence of diarrhoea and respiratory disease of 0.45, 0.32 and 0.18, respectively. Post-intervention, median camel mortality, prevalence of diarrhoea and respiratory disease dropped to 0.1, 0.08 and 0. Similarly, more than half of the small ruminant households reported no mortality, and no cases of diarrhoea or respiratory disease. In camels, rate ratios of mortality risk, prevalence of diarrhoea, and respiratory disease post-intervention compared to the baseline were 0.41, 0.41 and 0.37. In small ruminants, rate ratios were 0.33, 0.35 and 0.46. All reductions were statistically significant (p < 0.01). Generally, pastoralists experienced higher mortality and disease prevalence compared to mixed crop-livestock smallholders, and the effect of intervention was slightly higher in pastoralist households. The pilot study findings demonstrated highly significant reductions in mortality and risk of diarrhoea and respiratory disease post-interventions. However, not all households benefitted from the interventions, with a few households reporting increased mortality and morbidity. Many households had very few animals which made it challenging to measure impact and the study was conducted over a single year, without a control group, so between year effects could not be accounted for in the reductions observed. These findings should contribute to improved livestock productivity in Ethiopia.

Reduced dementia incidence after varicella zoster vaccination in Wales 2013-2020.

Introduction: Chronic infection with herpes viruses is a potential contributing factor to the development of dementia. The introduction of nationwide shingles (varicella zoster) vaccination in Wales might therefore be associated with reduced incident dementia. Methods: We analyzed the association of shingles vaccination with incident dementia in Wales between 2013 and 2020 using retrospectively collected national health data. Results: Vaccinated individuals were at reduced risk of dementia (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.72; 95% confidence interval: 0.69 to 0.75). The association was not modified by a reduction in shingles diagnosis and was stronger for vascular dementia than for Alzheimer's disease. Vaccination was also associated with a reduction in several other diseases and all-cause mortality. Discussion: Our study shows a clear association of shingles vaccination with reduced dementia, consistent with other observational cohort studies. The association may reflect selection bias with people choosing to be vaccinated having a higher healthy life expectancy.

Prematurity, Delivery Method, and Infant Feeding Type Are Not Associated with Paediatric-onset Inflammatory Bowel Disease Risk: A Scottish Retrospective Birth Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The incidence of paediatric-onset inflammatory bowel disease [PIBD] continues to rise globally. We aimed to determine whether mode of delivery, gestational age at birth, or type of infant feeding contribute to the development of PIBD in a nationwide cohort of Scottish children. METHODS: All children born in Scotland between 1981 and 2017 were identified using linked health administrative data to determine mode of delivery, gestational age at birth, and type of infant feeding. PIBD cases were defined as onset of Crohn's disease [CD], ulcerative colitis [UC], or IBD-unclassified [IBDU] before age 16 years. Validation was performed within an entire Scottish health board [16% of total population] via individual case-note verification. Hazard ratios [HR] were calculated for each exposure using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: A study population of 2 013 851 children was identified including 1721 PIBD cases. Validation of 261 PIBD patients coded as CD and/or UC identified 242 [93%] as true positive. Children delivered vaginally did not have an altered risk of developing PIBD compared with those delivered by caesarean section, adjusted HR 0.95 [95% CI 0.84-1.08] [p = 0.46]. Compared with children born at term [≥37 weeks], children born prematurely did not have an altered risk of developing PIBD, i.e., at 24-31 weeks of gestation, HR 0.99 [95% CI 0.57-1.71] [p = 0.97] and at 32-36 weeks of gestation, HR 0.96 [95% CI 0.76-1.20] [p = 0.71]. Compared with children exclusively breastfed at age 6 weeks, children exclusively formula fed did not have an altered risk of developing PIBD: adjusted HR 0.97 [95% CI 0.81-1.15] [p = 0.69]. CONCLUSIONS: This population-based study demonstrates no association between mode of delivery, gestational age, or exclusive formula feeding at 6 weeks, and the development of PIBD.