Evaluation of plant sources for antiinfective lead compound discovery by correlating phylogenetic, spatial, and bioactivity data.

Antibiotic resistance and viral diseases are rising around the world and are becoming major threats to global health, food security, and development. One measure that has been suggested to mitigate this crisis is the development of new antibiotics. Here, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the phylogenetic and biogeographic patterns of antiinfective compounds from seed plants in one of the most species-rich regions on Earth and identify clades with naturally occurring substances potentially suitable for the development of new pharmaceutical compounds. Specifically, we combine taxonomic and phylogenetic data for >7,500 seed plant species from the flora of Java with >16,500 secondary metabolites and 6,255 georeferenced occurrence records to 1) identify clades in the phylogeny that are characterized by either an overrepresentation ("hot clades") or an underrepresentation ("cold clades") of antiinfective compounds and 2) assess the spatial patterns of plants with antiinfective compounds relative to total plant diversity across the region. Across the flora of Java, we identify 26 "hot clades" with plant species providing a high probability of finding antibiotic constituents. In addition, 24 "cold clades" constitute lineages with low numbers of reported activities but which have the potential to yield novel compounds. Spatial patterns of plant species and metabolite diversity are strongly correlated across Java, indicating that regions of highest species diversity afford the highest potential to discover novel natural products. Our results indicate that the combination of phylogenetic, spatial, and phytochemical information is a useful tool to guide the selection of taxa for efforts aimed at lead compound discovery.

Twenty-million-year relationship between mammalian diversity and primary productivity.

At global and regional scales, primary productivity strongly correlates with richness patterns of extant animals across space, suggesting that resource availability and climatic conditions drive patterns of diversity. However, the existence and consistency of such diversity-productivity relationships through geological history is unclear. Here we provide a comprehensive quantitative test of the diversity-productivity relationship for terrestrial large mammals through time across broad temporal and spatial scales. We combine >14,000 occurrences for 690 fossil genera through the Neogene (23-1.8 Mya) with regional estimates of primary productivity from fossil plant communities in North America and Europe. We show a significant positive diversity-productivity relationship through the 20-million-year record, providing evidence on unprecedented spatial and temporal scales that this relationship is a general pattern in the ecology and paleo-ecology of our planet. Further, we discover that genus richness today does not match the fossil relationship, suggesting that a combination of human impacts and Pleistocene climate variability has modified the 20-million-year ecological relationship by strongly reducing primary productivity and driving many mammalian species into decline or to extinction.

Key innovations and climatic niche divergence as drivers of diversification in subtropical Gentianinae in southeastern and eastern Asia.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Geological and climatic changes associated with the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) have been suggested as drivers for biological diversification locally and in neighboring regions. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the niche evolution of Tripterospermum (Gentianaceae) and related Asian genera through time. METHODS: We conducted Species Distribution Modeling using Maximum Entropy Modeling (MaxEnt). Furthermore, we performed stochastic character mapping and produced disparity-through-time plots, and examined putative key innovations using the binary state speciation and extinction approach (BISSE). KEY RESULTS: Kuepferia and Sinogentiana prefer the coolest and driest habitat, having rather conserved niches. Despite a tendency for niche evolution, Crawfurdia and Metagentiana are probably restricted to a narrow distribution range because of their poor dispersal ability. In contrast, Tripterospermum has the broadest niche and occurs under the warmest and wettest conditions. A higher degree of niche evolution and a more efficient dispersal mechanism allowed this genus to diversify more and occupy a broader distribution range. CONCLUSIONS: The QTP genera producing dry capsules, whether displaying niche conservatism (Kuepferia and Sinogentiana) or a tendency for niche evolution (Crawfurdia and Metagentiana), are less species-rich and have a more restricted distribution than Tripterospermum (stronger niche evolution and berry-like fruits). The evolution of berry-like fruits corresponds to increased speciation rates, and could therefore be viewed as a key innovation. In contrast to the majority of studies on plants occurring around the QTP, we find that speciation was probably mediated by niche breadth and dispersal ability rather than geophysical changes.

Bayesian estimation of speciation and extinction from incomplete fossil occurrence data.

The temporal dynamics of species diversity are shaped by variations in the rates of speciation and extinction, and there is a long history of inferring these rates using first and last appearances of taxa in the fossil record. Understanding diversity dynamics critically depends on unbiased estimates of the unobserved times of speciation and extinction for all lineages, but the inference of these parameters is challenging due to the complex nature of the available data. Here, we present a new probabilistic framework to jointly estimate species-specific times of speciation and extinction and the rates of the underlying birth-death process based on the fossil record. The rates are allowed to vary through time independently of each other, and the probability of preservation and sampling is explicitly incorporated in the model to estimate the true lifespan of each lineage. We implement a Bayesian algorithm to assess the presence of rate shifts by exploring alternative diversification models. Tests on a range of simulated data sets reveal the accuracy and robustness of our approach against violations of the underlying assumptions and various degrees of data incompleteness. Finally, we demonstrate the application of our method with the diversification of the mammal family Rhinocerotidae and reveal a complex history of repeated and independent temporal shifts of both speciation and extinction rates, leading to the expansion and subsequent decline of the group. The estimated parameters of the birth-death process implemented here are directly comparable with those obtained from dated molecular phylogenies. Thus, our model represents a step towards integrating phylogenetic and fossil information to infer macroevolutionary processes.

Evolution of microgastropods (Ellobioidea, Carychiidae): integrating taxonomic, phylogenetic and evolutionary hypotheses.

BACKGROUND: Current biodiversity patterns are considered largely the result of past climatic and tectonic changes. In an integrative approach, we combine taxonomic and phylogenetic hypotheses to analyze temporal and geographic diversification of epigean (Carychium) and subterranean (Zospeum) evolutionary lineages in Carychiidae (Eupulmonata, Ellobioidea). We explicitly test three hypotheses: 1) morphospecies encompass unrecognized evolutionary lineages, 2) limited dispersal results in a close genetic relationship of geographical proximally distributed taxa and 3) major climatic and tectonic events had an impact on lineage diversification within Carychiidae. RESULTS: Initial morphospecies assignments were investigated by different molecular delimitation approaches (threshold, ABGD, GMYC and SP). Despite a conservative delimitation strategy, carychiid morphospecies comprise a great number of unrecognized evolutionary lineages. We attribute this phenomenon to historic underestimation of morphological stasis and phenotypic variability amongst lineages. The first molecular phylogenetic hypothesis for the Carychiidae (based on COI, 16S and H3) reveals Carychium and Zospeum to be reciprocally monophyletic. Geographical proximally distributed lineages are often closely related. The temporal diversification of Carychiidae is best described by a constant rate model of diversification. The evolution of Carychiidae is characterized by relatively few (long distance) colonization events. We find support for an Asian origin of Carychium. Zospeum may have arrived in Europe before extant members of Carychium. Distantly related Carychium clades inhabit a wide spectrum of the available bioclimatic niche and demonstrate considerable niche overlap. CONCLUSIONS: Carychiid taxonomy is in dire need of revision. An inferred wide distribution and variable phenotype suggest underestimated diversity in Zospeum. Several Carychium morphospecies are results of past taxonomic lumping. By collecting populations at their type locality, molecular investigations are able to link historic morphospecies assignments to their respective evolutionary lineage. We propose that rare founder populations initially colonized a continent or cave system. Subsequent passive dispersal into adjacent areas led to in situ pan-continental or mountain range diversifications. Major environmental changes did not influence carychiid diversification. However, certain molecular delimitation methods indicated a recent decrease in diversification rate. We attribute this decrease to protracted speciation.

Niche evolution through time and across continents: The story of Neotropical Cedrela (Meliaceae).

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Climatic and geological changes have been considered as major drivers of biological diversification. However, it has been generally assumed that lineages retain common environmental affinities, suggesting a limited capacity to switch their climatic niche. We tested this assumption with a study of the evolution of climatic niches in the Neotropical tree genus Cedrela (Meliaceae). • METHODS: We combined distribution models of extant Cedrela with a dated molecular phylogeny based on one nuclear (ITS) and three plastid markers (psbA-trnH, trnS-G and psbB-T-N) to reconstruct the evolutionary dynamics of climatic niches. We calculated relative disparity of climatic tolerances over time to test for niche evolution within subclades or divergence between subclades and conservatism among closely related groups. Published fossil records and studies on paleosols were evaluated for the distribution and climatic conditions of extinct Cedrela. • KEY RESULTS: The fossil record of Cedrela suggested a major biome shift from paratropical conditions into warm-temperate seasonal climates in the Early Oligocene of western North America. In the Miocene, Cedrela extended from North America (John Day Formation, Oregon, USA) to southern Central America (Gatún, Panama). Diversification in the early evolutionary history was mainly driven by changes in precipitation. Temperature had an increasing impact on ecological diversification of the genus from the Miocene onwards. Sister-species comparisons revealed that recent speciation events may be related to divergence of climatic tolerances. • CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the complexity of climatic niche dynamics, and shows how conservatism and evolution have acted on different temporal scales and climatic parameters in Cedrela.

Causes of plant diversification in the Cape biodiversity hotspot of South Africa.

The Cape region of South Africa is one of the most remarkable hotspots of biodiversity with a flora comprising more than 9000 plant species, almost 70% of which are endemic, within an area of only ± 90,000 km2. Much of the diversity is due to an exceptionally large contribution of just a few clades that radiated substantially within this region, but little is known about the causes of these radiations. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of plant diversification, using near complete species-level phylogenies of four major Cape clades (more than 470 species): the genus Protea, a tribe of legumes (Podalyrieae) and two speciose genera within the iris family (Babiana and Moraea), representing three of the seven largest plant families in this biodiversity hotspot. Combining these molecular phylogenetic data with ecological and biogeographical information, we tested key hypotheses that have been proposed to explain the radiation of the Cape flora. Our results show that the radiations started throughout the Oligocene and Miocene and that net diversification rates have remained constant through time at globally moderate rates. Furthermore, using sister-species comparisons to assess the impact of different factors on speciation, we identified soil type shifts as the most important cause of speciation in Babiana, Moraea, and Protea, whereas shifts in fire-survival strategy is the most important factor for Podalyrieae. Contrary to previous findings in other groups, such as orchids, pollination syndromes show a high degree of phylogenetic conservatism, including groups with a large number of specialized pollination syndromes like Moraea. We conclude that the combination of complex environmental conditions together with relative climatic stability promoted high speciation and/or low extinction rates as the most likely scenario leading to present-day patterns of hyperdiversity in the Cape.

Climate change will disproportionally affect the most genetically diverse lineages of a widespread African tree species.

Global climate change is proceeding at an alarming rate with major ecological and genetic consequences for biodiversity, particularly in drylands. The response of species to climate change may differ between intraspecific genetic groups, with major implications for conservation. We used molecular data from 10 nuclear and two chloroplast genomes to identify phylogeographic groups within 746 individuals from 29 populations of Senegalia senegal, a savannah tree species in sub-Saharan Africa. Three phylogroups are identified corresponding to Sudano-Sahelian, Zambezian and Southern African biogeographic regions in West, East and Southern Africa. Genetic diversity was highest in Southern and Zambesian and lowest in the Sudano-Sahelian phylogroups. Using species distribution modeling, we infer highly divergent future distributions of the phylogroups under three climate change scenarios. Climate change will lead to severe reductions of distribution area of the genetically diverse Zambezian (- 41-- 54%) and Southern (- 63-- 82%) phylogroups, but to an increase for the genetically depauperate Sudano-Sahelian (+ 7- + 26%) phylogroups. This study improves our understanding of the impact of climate change on the future distribution of this species. This knowledge is particularly useful for biodiversity management as the conservation of genetic resources needs to be considered in complementary strategies of in-situ conservation and assisted migration.

A Bayesian framework to estimate diversification rates and their variation through time and space.

BACKGROUND: Patterns of species diversity are the result of speciation and extinction processes, and molecular phylogenetic data can provide valuable information to derive their variability through time and across clades. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods offer a promising framework to incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty when estimating rates of diversification. RESULTS: We introduce a new approach to estimate diversification rates in a Bayesian framework over a distribution of trees under various constant and variable rate birth-death and pure-birth models, and test it on simulated phylogenies. Furthermore, speciation and extinction rates and their posterior credibility intervals can be estimated while accounting for non-random taxon sampling. The framework is particularly suitable for hypothesis testing using Bayes factors, as we demonstrate analyzing dated phylogenies of Chondrostoma (Cyprinidae) and Lupinus (Fabaceae). In addition, we develop a model that extends the rate estimation to a meta-analysis framework in which different data sets are combined in a single analysis to detect general temporal and spatial trends in diversification. CONCLUSIONS: Our approach provides a flexible framework for the estimation of diversification parameters and hypothesis testing while simultaneously accounting for uncertainties in the divergence times and incomplete taxon sampling.

Two new species and a new species record of Aglaia (Meliaceae) from Indonesia.

Two new species of Aglaia from Indonesia are described, Aglaia monocaula restricted to West Papua, and Aglaia nyaruensis occurring on Borneo (Kalimantan, Brunei, Sabah and Sarawak). A phylogenetic analysis using nuclear ITS and ETS, and plastid rps15-ycf1 sequence data indicates that the two new species of Aglaia are also genetically distinct. Aglaia monocaula belongs to sectionAmoora, while A. nyaruensis is included in section Aglaia. A dichotomous key, drawings and three-locus DNA barcodes are provided as aids for the identification of the two new species of Aglaia. In addition, the geographic range of Aglaia mackiana (section Amoora) is expanded from a single previously known site in Papua New Guinea to West Papua, Indonesia.

"Into and Out of" the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Himalayas: Centers of origin and diversification across five clades of Eurasian montane and alpine passerine birds.

Encompassing some of the major hotspots of biodiversity on Earth, large mountain systems have long held the attention of evolutionary biologists. The region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is considered a biogeographic source for multiple colonization events into adjacent areas including the northern Palearctic. The faunal exchange between the QTP and adjacent regions could thus represent a one-way street ("out of" the QTP). However, immigration into the QTP region has so far received only little attention, despite its potential to shape faunal and floral communities of the QTP. In this study, we investigated centers of origin and dispersal routes between the QTP, its forested margins and adjacent regions for five clades of alpine and montane birds of the passerine superfamily Passeroidea. We performed an ancestral area reconstruction using BioGeoBEARS and inferred a time-calibrated backbone phylogeny for 279 taxa of Passeroidea. The oldest endemic species of the QTP was dated to the early Miocene (ca. 20 Ma). Several additional QTP endemics evolved in the mid to late Miocene (12-7 Ma). The inferred centers of origin and diversification for some of our target clades matched the "out of Tibet hypothesis' or the "out of Himalayas hypothesis" for others they matched the "into Tibet hypothesis." Three radiations included multiple independent Pleistocene colonization events to regions as distant as the Western Palearctic and the Nearctic. We conclude that faunal exchange between the QTP and adjacent regions was bidirectional through time, and the QTP region has thus harbored both centers of diversification and centers of immigration.

Different diversification histories in tropical and temperate lineages in the ascomycete subfamily Protoparmelioideae (Parmeliaceae).

Background: Environment and geographic processes affect species' distributions as well as evolutionary processes, such as clade diversification. Estimating the time of origin and diversification of organisms helps us understand how climate fluctuations in the past might have influenced the diversification and present distribution of species. Complementing divergence dating with character evolution could indicate how key innovations have facilitated the diversification of species. Methods: We estimated the divergence times within the newly recognised subfamily Protoparmelioideae (Ascomycota) using a multilocus dataset to assess the temporal context of diversification events. We reconstructed ancestral habitats and substrate using a species tree generated in *Beast. Results: We found that the diversification in Protoparmelioideae occurred during the Miocene and that the diversification events in the tropical clade Maronina predate those of the extratropical Protoparmelia. Character reconstructions suggest that the ancestor of Protoparmelioideae was most probably a rock-dwelling lichen inhabiting temperate environments. Conclusions: Major diversification within the subtropical/tropical genus Maronina occurred between the Paleocene and Miocene whereas the diversifications within the montane, arctic/temperate genus Protoparmelia occurred much more recently, i.e. in the Miocene.

Genetic diversity and distribution of Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under climate change scenarios in West Africa.

Climate change is predicted to impact species' genetic diversity and distribution. We used Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton, an economically important species distributed in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah belt of West Africa, to investigate the impact of climate change on intraspecific genetic diversity and distribution. We used ten nuclear and two plastid microsatellite markers to assess genetic variation, population structure and differentiation across thirteen sites in West Africa. We projected suitable range, and potential impact of climate change on genetic diversity using a maximum entropy approach, under four different climate change scenarios. We found higher genetic and haplotype diversity at both nuclear and plastid markers than previously reported. Genetic differentiation was strong for chloroplast and moderate for the nuclear genome. Both genomes indicated three spatially structured genetic groups. The distribution of Senegalia senegal is strongly correlated with extractable nitrogen, coarse fragments, soil organic carbon stock, precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter and mean temperature of driest quarter. We predicted 40.96 to 6.34 per cent of the current distribution to favourably support the species' ecological requirements under future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change is going to affect the population genetic structure of Senegalia senegal, and that patterns of genetic diversity are going to influence the species' adaptive response to climate change. Our study contributes to the growing evidence predicting the loss of economically relevant plants in West Africa in the next decades due to climate change.

Spatio-temporal evolution of Allium L. in the Qinghai-Tibet-Plateau region: Immigration and in situ radiation.

A plethora of studies investigating the origin and evolution of diverse mountain taxa has assumed a causal link between geological processes (orogenesis) and a biological response (diversification). Yet, a substantial delay (up to 30 Myr) between the start of orogenesis and diversification is often observed. Evolutionary biologists should therefore identify alternative drivers of diversification and maintenance of biodiversity in mountain systems. Using phylogenetic, biogeographic, and diversification rate analyses, we could identify two independent processes that most likely explain the diversity of the widespread genus Allium in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) region: (1) While the QTP-related taxa of the subgenus Melanocrommyum diversified in situ, (2) QTP-related taxa of other subgenera migrated into the QTP from multiple source areas. Furthermore, shifts in diversification rates within Allium could not be attributed spatially and temporally to the uplift history of the QTP region. Instead, global cooling and climate oscillations in the Quaternary were major contributors to increased speciation rates in three clades of Allium. Our study therefore adds to the growing evidence supporting the "mountain-geo-biodiversity hypothesis", which highlights the role of climate oscillations for the diversification of mountain organisms.

Merging paleobiology with conservation biology to guide the future of terrestrial ecosystems.

Conservation of species and ecosystems is increasingly difficult because anthropogenic impacts are pervasive and accelerating. Under this rapid global change, maximizing conservation success requires a paradigm shift from maintaining ecosystems in idealized past states toward facilitating their adaptive and functional capacities, even as species ebb and flow individually. Developing effective strategies under this new paradigm will require deeper understanding of the long-term dynamics that govern ecosystem persistence and reconciliation of conflicts among approaches to conserving historical versus novel ecosystems. Integrating emerging information from conservation biology, paleobiology, and the Earth sciences is an important step forward on the path to success. Maintaining nature in all its aspects will also entail immediately addressing the overarching threats of growing human population, overconsumption, pollution, and climate change.

Microscale vicariance and diversification of Western Balkan caddisflies linked to karstification.

The karst areas in the Dinaric region of the Western Balkan Peninsula are a hotspot of freshwater biodiversity. Many investigators have examined diversification of the subterranean freshwater fauna in these karst systems. However, diversification of surface-water fauna remains largely unexplored. We assessed local and regional diversification of surface-water species in karst systems and asked whether patterns of population differentiation could be explained by dispersal-diversification processes or allopatric diversification following karst-related microscale vicariance. We analyzed mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (mtCOI) sequence data of 4 caddisfly species (genus Drusus) in a phylogeographic framework to assess local and regional population genetic structure and Pliocene/Pleistocene history. We used BEAST software to assess the timing of intraspecific diversification of the target species. We compared climate envelopes of the study species and projected climatically suitable areas during the last glacial maximum (LGM) to assess differences in the species climatic niches and infer potential LGM refugia. The haplotype distribution of the 4 species (324 individuals from 32 populations) was characterized by strong genetic differentiation with few haplotypes shared among populations (16%) and deep divergence among populations of the 3 endemic species, even at local scales. Divergence among local populations of endemics often exceeded divergence among regional and continental clades of the widespread D. discolor. Major divergences among regional populations dated to 2.0 to 0.5 Mya. Species distribution model projections and genetic structure suggest that the endemic species persisted in situ and diversified locally throughout multiple Pleistocene climate cycles. The pattern for D. discolor was different and consistent with multiple invasions into the region. Patterns of population genetic structure and diversification were similar for the 3 regional endemic Drusus species and consistent with microscale vicariance after the onset of intensified karstification in the Dinaric region. Karstification may induce microscale vicariance of running surface-water habitats and probably promotes allopatric fragmentation of stream insects at small spatial scales.

Diversity in time and space: wanted dead and alive.

Current patterns of biological diversity are influenced by both historical and present-day factors, yet research in ecology and evolution is largely split between paleontological and neontological studies. Responding to recent calls for integration, we provide a conceptual framework that capitalizes on data and methods from both disciplines to investigate fundamental processes. We highlight the opportunities arising from a combined approach with four examples: (i) which mechanisms generate spatial and temporal variation in diversity; (ii) how traits evolve; (iii) what determines the temporal dynamics of geographical ranges and ecological niches; and (iv) how species-environment and biotic interactions shape community structure. Our framework provides conceptual guidelines for combining paleontological and neontological perspectives to unravel the fundamental processes shaping life on Earth.

Diversification of the African genus Protea (Proteaceae) in the Cape biodiversity hotspot and beyond: equal rates in different biomes.

The Cape region of South Africa is a hotspot of flowering plant biodiversity. However, the reasons why levels of diversity and endemism are so high remain obscure. Here, we reconstructed phylogenetic relationships among species in the genus Protea, which has its center of species richness and endemism in the Cape, but also extends through tropical Africa as far as Eritrea and Angola. Contrary to previous views, the Cape is identified as the ancestral area for the radiation of the extant lineages: most species in subtropical and tropical Africa are derived from a single invasion of that region. Moreover, diversification rates have been similar within and outside the Cape region. Migration out of the Cape has opened up vast areas, but those lineages have not diversified as extensively at fine spatial scales as lineages in the Cape. Therefore, higher net rates of diversification do not explain the high diversity and endemism of Protea in the Cape. Instead, understanding why the Cape is so diverse requires an explanation for how Cape species are able to diverge and persist at such small spatial scales.