External validation of the HCM Risk-Kids model for predicting sudden cardiac death in childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

AIMS: Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the most common mode of death in childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). The newly developed HCM Risk-Kids model provides clinicians with individualized estimates of risk. The aim of this study was to externally validate the model in a large independent, multi-centre patient cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: A retrospective, longitudinal cohort of 421 patients diagnosed with HCM aged 1-16 years independent of the HCM Risk-Kids development and internal validation cohort was studied. Data on HCM Risk-Kids predictor variables (unexplained syncope, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, maximal left ventricular wall thickness, left atrial diameter, and left ventricular outflow tract gradient) were collected from the time of baseline clinical evaluation. The performance of the HCM Risk-Kids model in predicting risk at 5 years was assessed. Twenty-three patients (5.4%) met the SCD end-point within 5 years, with an overall incidence rate of 2.03 per 100 patient-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.48-2.78]. Model validation showed a Harrell's C-index of 0.745 (95% CI 0.52-0.97) and Uno's C-index 0.714 (95% 0.58-0.85) with a calibration slope of 1.15 (95% 0.51-1.80). A 5-year predicted risk threshold of ≥6% identified 17 (73.9%) SCD events with a corresponding C-statistic of 0.702 (95% CI 0.60-0.81). CONCLUSIONS: This study reports the first external validation of the HCM Risk-Kids model in a large and geographically diverse patient population. A 5-year predicted risk of ≥6% identified over 70% of events, confirming that HCM Risk-Kids provides a method for individualized risk predictions and shared decision-making in children with HCM.

Coronary artery spasm and dobutamine stress echocardiography.

AIMS: The aim of this article was to assess whether abnormal dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) can be due to a dobutamine-induced coronary spasm in patients with angiographically documented vasospastic coronary arteries. METHODS AND RESULTS: Between January 2004 and April 2008, we prospectively evaluated all patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) referred to the echocardiography laboratory for dobutamine stress tests (6061 examinations). Those with abnormal DSE underwent coronary angiogram with a systematic methylergometrine intracoronary injection in the case of absence of significant coronary stenosis or spontaneous occlusive coronary spasm. Patients who had spontaneous occlusive coronary spasm or positive methylergometrine test, but no significant stenoses, were ultimately included in this study. About 581 patients had abnormal DSE, among them only 20 (3.4%) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. There were 15 males and 5 females, and mean age was 64.35 years (range 52-85); 8 patients had a known history of CAD and all of them had at least two established cardiovascular risk factors. The culprit vessel was the left anterior descending artery in 10 cases (50%), right coronary artery in 8 cases (40%), and left circumflex in 2 cases (10%). There was a systematic correspondence between the culprit arteries and dobutamine-induced wall motion abnormality territories. No complications occurred during examination or during the provocation test. All the patients were discharged with a calcium channel blocker and were doing well after 13 months of mean follow-up. CONCLUSION: Coronary artery spasm can be induced at DSE, but is a rare finding; it could, though, be clinically relevant as it may partly explain some erroneously labelled 'false-positive' examinations. Methylergometrine provocation test is a safe and advisable approach in such situations.