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1.
BMC Public Health ; 20(1): 1135, 2020 Jul 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32689959

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Various methods exist for statistical inference about a prevalence that consider misclassifications due to an imperfect diagnostic test. However, traditional methods are known to suffer from truncation of the prevalence estimate and the confidence intervals constructed around the point estimate, as well as from under-performance of the confidence intervals' coverage. METHODS: In this study, we used simulated data sets to validate a Bayesian prevalence estimation method and compare its performance to frequentist methods, i.e. the Rogan-Gladen estimate for prevalence, RGE, in combination with several methods of confidence interval construction. Our performance measures are (i) error distribution of the point estimate against the simulated true prevalence and (ii) coverage and length of the confidence interval, or credible interval in the case of the Bayesian method. RESULTS: Across all data sets, the Bayesian point estimate and the RGE produced similar error distributions with slight advantages of the former over the latter. In addition, the Bayesian estimate did not suffer from the RGE's truncation problem at zero or unity. With respect to coverage performance of the confidence and credible intervals, all of the traditional frequentist methods exhibited strong under-coverage, whereas the Bayesian credible interval as well as a newly developed frequentist method by Lang and Reiczigel performed as desired, with the Bayesian method having a very slight advantage in terms of interval length. CONCLUSION: The Bayesian prevalence estimation method should be prefered over traditional frequentist methods. An acceptable alternative is to combine the Rogan-Gladen point estimate with the Lang-Reiczigel confidence interval.


Assuntos
Teorema de Bayes , Prevalência , Humanos
2.
Phys Rev Lett ; 110(11): 118701, 2013 Mar 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25166583

RESUMO

An accessibility graph of a network contains a link wherever there is a path of arbitrary length between two nodes. We generalize the concept of accessibility to temporal networks. Building an accessibility graph by consecutively adding paths of growing length (unfolding), we obtain information about the distribution of shortest path durations and characteristic time scales in temporal networks. Moreover, we define causal fidelity to measure the goodness of their static representation. The practicability of our proposed methods is demonstrated for three examples: networks of social contacts, livestock trade, and sexual contacts.


Assuntos
Modelos Teóricos , Apoio Social , Animais , Gado , Modelos Econômicos , Suínos
3.
Prev Vet Med ; 188: 105260, 2021 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33465640

RESUMO

The social structure of animal groups is considered to have an impact on their health and welfare. This could also be true for animals under commercial conditions, but research in this area has been limited. Pigs for example are known to be very social animals, but information about their grouping behavior is mostly derived from wild boars and a limited number of studies in seminatural and commercial conditions. Specifically under commercial conditions it is still unclear to what extent pig herds organize themselves in subgroups and how such group patterns emerge. To answer these questions, we tracked the positions of about 200 sows inside a barn during ongoing production over a period of five weeks and used these data to construct and analyze the animal contact networks. Our analysis showed a very high contact density and only little variation in the number of other animals that a specific animal is in contact with. Nevertheless, in each week we consistently detected three subgroups inside the barn, which also showed a clear spatial separation. Our results show that even in the high density environment of a commercial pig farm, the behavior of pigs to form differentiated groups is consistent with their behavior under seminatural conditions. Furthermore, our findings also imply that the barn layout could play an important role in the formation of the grouping pattern. These insights could be used to monitor and understand the spread of infectious diseases inside the barn better. In addition, our insights could potentially be used to improve the welfare of pigs.


Assuntos
Criação de Animais Domésticos , Abrigo para Animais , Comportamento Social , Sus scrofa/psicologia , Animais , Feminino
4.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34639268

RESUMO

Quantitative risk assessments for Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) necessitate estimates for key parameters such as the prevalence of infection, the probability of absence of infection in defined birth cohorts, and the numbers of BSE-infected, but non-detected cattle entering the food chain. We estimated three key parameters with adjustment for misclassification using the German BSE surveillance data using a Gompertz model for latent (i.e., unobserved) age-dependent detection probabilities and a Poisson response model for the number of BSE cases for birth cohorts 1999 to 2015. The models were combined in a Bayesian framework. We estimated the median true BSE prevalence between 3.74 and 0.216 cases per 100,000 animals for the birth cohorts 1990 to 2001 and observed a peak for the 1996 birth cohort with a point estimate of 16.41 cases per 100,000 cattle. For birth cohorts ranging from 2002 to 2013, the estimated median prevalence was below one case per 100,000 heads. The calculated confidence in freedom from disease (design prevalence 1 in 100,000) was above 99.5% for the birth cohorts 2002 to 2006. In conclusion, BSE surveillance in the healthy slaughtered cattle chain was extremely sensitive at the time, when BSE repeatedly occurred in Germany (2000-2009), because the entry of BSE-infected cattle into the food chain could virtually be prevented by the extensive surveillance program during these years and until 2015 (estimated non-detected cases/100.000 [95% credible interval] in 2000, 2009, and 2015 are 0.64 [0.5,0.8], 0.05 [0.01,0.14], and 0.19 [0.05,0.61], respectively).


Assuntos
Encefalopatia Espongiforme Bovina , Animais , Teorema de Bayes , Bovinos , Encefalopatia Espongiforme Bovina/diagnóstico , Encefalopatia Espongiforme Bovina/epidemiologia , Liberdade , Prevalência , Medição de Risco
5.
Eur J Epidemiol ; 25(6): 411-9, 2010 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20386960

RESUMO

BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001-2007. A strong decline in BSE risk was observed for all countries that applied control measures during the 1990s, starting at different points in time in the different countries. Results were compared with the type and date of the BSE control measures implemented between 1990 and 2001 in each country. Results show that a ban on the feeding of meat and bone meal (MBM) to cattle alone was not sufficient to eliminate BSE. The fading out of the epidemic started shortly after the complementary measures targeted at controlling the risk in MBM. Given the long incubation period, it is still too early to estimate the additional effect of the ban on the feeding of animal protein to all farm animals that started in 2001. These results provide new insights in the risk assessment of BSE for cattle and Humans, which will especially be useful in the context of possible relaxing BSE surveillance and control measures.


Assuntos
Encefalopatia Espongiforme Bovina/epidemiologia , Animais , Bovinos , Estudos de Coortes , Síndrome de Creutzfeldt-Jakob/epidemiologia , Síndrome de Creutzfeldt-Jakob/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças , Encefalopatia Espongiforme Bovina/prevenção & controle , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Modelos Biológicos , Vigilância da População , Medição de Risco , Zoonoses/epidemiologia
6.
Food Chem Toxicol ; 142: 111460, 2020 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32505700

RESUMO

Insect-based foods are starting to enter the EU market, raising concerns about their safety. Allergic consumers might be exposed to even a greater risk, since insects have proven to trigger allergic symptoms, particularly in patients sensitised to crustaceans. Current legislation does not enforce producers to include insects in the list of allergenic ingredients. Food allergenicity risk assessment (FARA) is still at its infancy, and the debate on the need to define allergen thresholds is open. In this paper, we aimed at applying the concepts of stochastic quantitative FARA to describe present and future scenarios of exposure to foods containing Tenebrio molitor, the yellow mealworm. According to our risk characterisation, mealworm-based food products represent a major risk for individuals allergic to crustaceans to develop symptoms after the consumption of a dose lower than a serving size. Moreover, other allergic consumers might be at risk. A correct labelling of insect containing foods would help safeguarding the health of EU allergic consumers. Quantitatively assessing the risk of allergenicity provides a clear description of the problem, facilitating the decisional process of the risk manager, supporting the implementation of effective allergen management procedures and limiting the phenomenon of uninformative precautionary labelling.


Assuntos
Alérgenos/toxicidade , Contaminação de Alimentos/análise , Tenebrio , Animais , Hipersensibilidade Alimentar , Humanos , Medição de Risco
7.
Sci Total Environ ; 653: 315-326, 2019 Feb 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30412876

RESUMO

Game meat may contain elevated concentrations of lead especially if lead-containing ammunition is used for hunting. Then a health risk is possible for consumer groups with high game meat intake. The lead concentrations in three edible parts (marketable meat from the area close to the wound channel, saddle and haunch) of meat from red deer (Cervus elaphus) between animals hunted either with lead or non­lead ammunition were compared. Furthermore, lead levels in game meat of lead-shot red deer were compared with those of lead-shot roe deer and lead-shot wild boar. Ninety red deer were shot and killed in the context of this study (64 with lead and 26 with non­lead ammunition). Since the lead concentration for a number of the samples was below the limit of detection or the limit of quantification, statistical methods for left-censored data were applied. The median concentrations of lead in game meat did not differ significantly between lead shot and non­lead shot animals. However, when we analyzed the more elevated lead concentrations, they were significantly higher in edible parts of animals shot with lead ammunition than non-lead ammunition. The highest concentrations were found in samples from edible meat from the area close to the wound channel (max 3442 mg Pb/kg), followed by the saddle (max 1.14 mg Pb/kg) and with the lowest levels in the haunch (max 0.09 mg Pb/kg). A comparison of game species revealed that the lead concentration in haunch and saddle of lead shot red deer was higher than in the corresponding samples of lead shot roe deer. Our results have shown that by the use of non-lead ammunition, a significant reduction of the lead concentration especially in edible parts near the wound channel is possible.


Assuntos
Cervos , Contaminação de Alimentos/análise , Chumbo/análise , Carne/análise , Sus scrofa , Animais , Feminino , Masculino
8.
PLoS One ; 13(9): e0202762, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30208060

RESUMO

We developed a new probabilistic model to assess the impact of recommendations rectifying the reproducibility crisis (by publishing both positive and 'negative' results and increasing statistical power) on competing objectives, such as discovering causal relationships, avoiding publishing false positive results, and reducing resource consumption. In contrast to recent publications our model quantifies the impact of each single suggestion not only for an individual study but especially their relation and consequences for the overall scientific process. We can prove that higher-powered experiments can save resources in the overall research process without generating excess false positives. The better the quality of the pre-study information and its exploitation, the more likely this beneficial effect is to occur. Additionally, we quantify the adverse effects of both neglecting good practices in the design and conduct of hypotheses-based research, and the omission of the publication of 'negative' findings. Our contribution is a plea for adherence to or reinforcement of the good scientific practice and publication of 'negative' findings.


Assuntos
Pesquisa Biomédica , Modelos Teóricos , Editoração , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes
9.
PLoS One ; 13(7): e0200792, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30048463

RESUMO

The toxicity of lead has been known for a long time, and no safe uptake level can be derived for humans. Consumers' intake via food should therefore be kept as low as possible. Game meat can contain elevated levels of lead due to the use of lead ammunition for hunting. A risk assessment conducted in 2010 by the German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment including various consumption scenarios revealed a possible health risk for extreme consumers of game meat hunted with lead ammunition (i.e. hunters and members of hunters' households). Babies, infants, children and women of childbearing age were identified as vulnerable group with regards to the developmental neurotoxicity of lead. It was noted, that a sound data base was required in order to refine the assessment. Therefore, the research project "Safety of game meat obtained through hunting" (LEMISI) has been conducted in Germany, with the aims of determining the concentrations of lead (as well as of copper and zinc) brought into the edible parts of game meat (roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and wild boar (Sus scrofa)) due to using either lead or non-lead hunting ammunition, whilst concurrently taking geogenic (i.e. "background") levels of lead into account. Compared to non-lead ammunition, lead ammunition significantly increased lead concentrations in the game meat. The use of both lead and non-lead ammunition deposited copper and zinc in the edible parts of game meat, and the concentrations were in the range of those detected regularly in meat of farm animals. For the average consumer of game meat in Germany the additional uptake of lead only makes a minor contribution to the average alimentary lead exposure. However, for consumers from hunters' households the resulting uptake of lead-due to lead ammunition-can be several times higher than the average alimentary lead exposure. Non-lead bullets in combination with suitable game meat hygienic measures are therefore recommended in order to ensure "state of the art consumer health protection".


Assuntos
Contaminação de Alimentos/análise , Chumbo/análise , Carne/análise , Animais , Criança , Cervos , Feminino , Humanos , Sus scrofa , Suínos
10.
Vet Microbiol ; 123(4): 287-93, 2007 Aug 31.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17493772

RESUMO

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a transmissible fatal neurodegenerative disease in cattle with an average incubation time of five years. The first BSE case in an indigenous cow was detected in Germany in November 2000. This was almost eight years after the huge BSE epidemic in the United Kingdom had peaked, and several years after many EU member states had seen their first BSE case. In the 1990s, BSE had been diagnosed in six imported animals in Germany. However, after the implementation of an active surveillance programme using BSE rapid testing systems, 399 indigenous German BSE cases have been found up to the end of July 2006. The birth cohorts of 1995-1997 contribute to the vast majority of the first 250 German cases that were diagnosed between 2000 and 2003. However, the most recent German BSE cases belong primarily to the birth cohorts 1998-2000 which is indicative of a recycling of BSE infectivity at that time. Moreover, there were two BSE cases in cattle born in spring 2001, i.e. after the meat and bone meal feed ban had come into effect on 2nd December 2000. In this article, we describe the dynamics of the German BSE epidemic and compare these data with those of other countries that observed larger numbers of cases.


Assuntos
Ração Animal , Surtos de Doenças/veterinária , Encefalopatia Espongiforme Bovina/epidemiologia , Ração Animal/efeitos adversos , Animais , Bovinos , Comércio , Encefalopatia Espongiforme Bovina/etiologia , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Vigilância de Evento Sentinela/veterinária
11.
PLoS One ; 12(9): e0185029, 2017.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28926620

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Non-lead hunting ammunition is an alternative to bullets that contain lead. The use of lead ammunition can result in severe contamination of game meat, thus posing a health risk to consumers. With any kind of ammunition for hunting, the terminal effectiveness of bullets is an animal welfare issue. Doubts about the effectiveness of non-lead bullets for a humane kill of game animals in hunting have been discussed. The length of the escape distance after the shot has been used previously as an indicator for bullet performance. OBJECTIVE: The object of this study was to determine how the bullet material (lead or non-lead) influences the observed escape distances. METHODS: 1,234 records of the shooting of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and 825 records of the shooting of wild boar (Sus scrofa) were evaluated. As the bullet material cannot be regarded as the sole cause of variability of escape distances, interactions of other potential influencing variables like shot placement, shooting distance, were analyzed using conditional regression trees and two-part hurdle models. RESULTS: The length of the escape distance is not influenced by the use of lead or non-lead ammunition with either roe deer or wild boar. With roe deer, the length of the escape distance is influenced significantly by the shot placement and the type of hunting. Increasing shooting distances increased the length of the escape distance. With wild boar, shot placement and the age of the animals were found to be a significant influencing factor on the length of the escape distance. CONCLUSIONS: The length of the escape distance can be used as an indicator for adequate bullet effectiveness for humane killings of game animals in hunting.Non-lead bullets already exist which have an equally reliable killing effect as lead bullets.


Assuntos
Chumbo/química , Recreação , Animais , Animais Selvagens , Comportamento Animal , Cervos , Alemanha , Carne/análise , Análise Multivariada , Inquéritos e Questionários , Sus scrofa
12.
PLoS One ; 12(9): e0184946, 2017.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28934259

RESUMO

The aim of this study was to examine the contamination of game meat with copper and zinc and establish whether the use of alternative (non-lead) ammunition can lead to higher or unsafe levels of copper and zinc in the meat of roe deer, wild boar and red deer. The research project "Safety of game meat obtained through hunting" (LEMISI) was conducted in Germany with the purpose of examining the entry of lead as well as copper and zinc into the meat of hunted game when using either lead or non-lead ammunition. The outcome of this study shows that the usage of both lead-based ammunition and alternative non-lead ammunition results in the entry of copper and zinc into the edible parts of the game. Using non-lead ammunition does not entail dangerously elevated levels of copper and zinc, so replacing lead ammunition with alternative ammunition does not introduce a further health problem with regard to these metals. The levels of copper and zinc in game meat found in this study are in the range found in previous studies of game. The content of copper and zinc in game meat is also comparable to those regularly detected in meat and its products from livestock (pig, cattle, sheep) for which the mean human consumption rate is much higher. From the viewpoint of consumer health protection, the use of non-lead ammunition does not pose an additional hazard through copper and zinc contamination. A health risk due to the presence of copper and zinc in game meat at typical levels of consumer exposure is unlikely for both types of ammunition.


Assuntos
Cobre/análise , Contaminação de Alimentos/análise , Contaminação de Alimentos/estatística & dados numéricos , Intoxicação por Chumbo/epidemiologia , Chumbo/efeitos adversos , Carne/análise , Zinco/análise , Animais , Defesa do Consumidor , Qualidade de Produtos para o Consumidor , Cervos , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Humanos , Gestão da Segurança , Sus scrofa
13.
Front Vet Sci ; 3: 48, 2016.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27446936

RESUMO

The trade of livestock is an important and growing economic sector, but it is also a major factor in the spread of diseases. The spreading of diseases in a trade network is likely to be influenced by how often existing trade connections are active. The activity α is defined as the mean frequency of occurrences of existing trade links, thus 0 < α ≤ 1. The observed German pig trade network had an activity of α = 0.11, thus each existing trade connection between two farms was, on average, active at about 10% of the time during the observation period 2008-2009. The aim of this study is to analyze how changes in the activity level of the German pig trade network influence the probability of disease outbreaks, size, and duration of epidemics for different disease transmission probabilities. Thus, we want to investigate the question, whether it makes a difference for a hypothetical spread of an animal disease to transport many animals at the same time or few animals at many times. A SIR model was used to simulate the spread of a disease within the German pig trade network. Our results show that for transmission probabilities <1, the outbreak probability increases in the case of a decreased frequency of animal transports, peaking range of α from 0.05 to 0.1. However, for the final outbreak size, we find that a threshold exists such that finite outbreaks occur only above a critical value of α, which is ~0.1, and therefore in proximity of the observed activity level. Thus, although the outbreak probability increased when decreasing α, these outbreaks affect only a small number of farms. The duration of the epidemic peaks at an activity level in the range of α = 0.2-0.3. Additionally, the results of our simulations show that even small changes in the activity level of the German pig trade network would have dramatic effects on outbreak probability, outbreak size, and epidemic duration. Thus, we can conclude and recommend that the network activity is an important aspect, which should be taken into account when modeling the spread of diseases within trade networks.

14.
PLoS One ; 11(5): e0155196, 2016.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27152712

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Animal trade plays an important role for the spread of infectious diseases in livestock populations. The central question of this work is how infectious diseases can potentially spread via trade in such a livestock population. We address this question by analyzing the underlying network of animal movements. In particular, we consider pig trade in Germany, where trade actors (agricultural premises) form a complex network. METHODOLOGY: The considered pig trade dataset spans several years and is analyzed with respect to its potential to spread infectious diseases. Focusing on measurements of network-topological properties, we avoid the usage of external parameters, since these properties are independent of specific pathogens. They are on the contrary of great importance for understanding any general spreading process on this particular network. We analyze the system using different network models, which include varying amounts of information: (i) static network, (ii) network as a time series of uncorrelated snapshots, (iii) temporal network, where causality is explicitly taken into account. FINDINGS: We find that a static network view captures many relevant aspects of the trade system, and premises can be classified into two clearly defined risk classes. Moreover, our results allow for an efficient allocation strategy for intervention measures using centrality measures. Data on trade volume do barely alter the results and is therefore of secondary importance. Although a static network description yields useful results, the temporal resolution of data plays an outstanding role for an in-depth understanding of spreading processes. This applies in particular for an accurate calculation of the maximum outbreak size.


Assuntos
Doenças dos Suínos/transmissão , Animais , Alemanha , Suínos
15.
BMC Infect Dis ; 5: 10, 2005 Mar 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-15752423

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Rabies is the most important viral zoonosis from a global perspective. Worldwide efforts to combat the disease by oral vaccination of reservoirs have managed to eradicate wildlife rabies in large areas of central Europe and North-America. Thus, repeated vaccination has been discontinued recently on a geographical scale. However, as rabies has not yet been eradicated globally, a serious risk of re-introduction remains. What is the best spatial design for an emergency vaccination program -- particularly if resources are limited? Either, we treat a circular area around the detected case and run the risk of infected hosts leaving the limited control area, because a sufficient immunisation level has not yet been built up. Or, initially concentrate the SAME resources in order to establish a protective ring which is more distant from the infected local area, and which then holds out against the challenge of the approaching epidemic. METHODS: We developed a simulation model to contrast the two strategies for emergency vaccination. The spatial-explicit model is based on fox group home-ranges, which facilitates the simulation of rabies spread to larger areas relevant to management. We used individual-based fox groups to follow up the effects of vaccination in a detailed manner. Thus, regionally -- bait distribution orientates itself to standard schemes of oral immunisation programs and locally -- baits are assigned to individual foxes. RESULTS: Surprisingly, putting the controlled area ring-like around the outbreak does not outperform the circular area of the same size centred on the outbreak. Only during the very first baitings, does the ring area result in fewer breakouts. But then as rabies is eliminated within the circle area, the respective ring area fails, due to the non-controlled inner part. We attempt to take advantage of the initially fewer breakouts beyond the ring when applying a mixed strategy. Therefore, after a certain number of baitings, the area under control was increased for both strategies towards the same larger circular area. The circle-circle strategy still outperforms the ring-circle strategy and analysis of the spatial-temporal disease spread reveals why: improving control efficacy by means of a mixed strategy is impossible in the field, due to the build-up time of population immunity. CONCLUSION: For practical emergency management of a new outbreak of rabies, the ring-like application of oral vaccination is not a favourable strategy at all. Even if initial resources are substantially low and there is a serious risk of rabies cases outside the limited control area, our results suggest circular application instead of ring vaccination.


Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças/veterinária , Raposas , Vacina Antirrábica/administração & dosagem , Vacina Antirrábica/imunologia , Raiva/prevenção & controle , Raiva/veterinária , Administração Oral , Animais , Simulação por Computador , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Modelos Biológicos , Raiva/imunologia
16.
Prev Vet Med ; 68(1): 35-48, 2005 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-15795014

RESUMO

Spatio-temporal survey data often form the main decision support in disease management. Consequently, disease managers rely on adequate description of the data supplied from epidemiological analysis. Practically speaking, such a description comprises of a visualisation, a deduced hypothesis and a statistical evaluation of the hypothesis. Prior to the application of traditional methods of data visualisation and hence data description, an aggregation of the data is required. This paper illustrates the resulting uncertainty in hypotheses that can be generated by traditional analytical techniques. Additionally, a method of avoiding this typical drawback in traditional data exploration is demonstrated: This is the use of data movies. Data from a 10-year study on the spread of pseudorabies virus (PrV) infections in wild boar populations were revisited. The visualisation of the data using a data movie instead of using traditional approaches for the first time enabled immediate observation of spreading infection in time and space. This dynamic perception of the spread drastically changes the understanding of the epidemiology of the virus. The paper demonstrates how data movies can account for the complete information contained within the data set. It is concluded that data movies can provide a more appropriate starting point. We recommend the data movie approach as an important addition in the epidemiological toolbox, because data movies can easily be integrated into the usual demonstration and publication process.


Assuntos
Apresentação de Dados , Pseudorraiva/epidemiologia , Doenças dos Suínos/epidemiologia , Animais , Animais Selvagens , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Suínos
17.
Geospat Health ; 10(1): 313, 2015 Jun 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26054515

RESUMO

Aiming to achieve new insights into rabies dynamics, this paper is the first to investigate fox rabies in Germany from a space-time pattern perspective. Based on a locally restricted dataset covering a fourteen month period, our findings indicate a strongly aggregated spatiotemporal point pattern resulting from an inhomogeneous stochastic process. In contrast to spatial or temporal approaches or cellular automata, our analysis focuses on the disease dynamics in time and space in a continuous time domain. Our findings confirm existing theories regarding fox rabies control highlighting the potential risk of urban areas and the need for effective rabies vaccination.


Assuntos
Doenças dos Animais/epidemiologia , Raposas/virologia , Raiva/epidemiologia , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Animais , Cervos/virologia , Alemanha , Cavalos/virologia , Humanos
18.
BMC Infect Dis ; 4: 9, 2004 Mar 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-15113448

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Rabies is one of the most hazardous zoonoses in the world. Oral mass vaccination has developed into the most effective management method to control fox rabies. The future need to control the disease in large countries (i.e. Eastern Europe and the Americas) forces cost-benefit discussions. The 'Increase bait density' option refers to the usual management assumption that more baits per km2 could compensate for high fox abundance and override the imperfect supply of bait pieces to the individual fox. METHODS: We use a spatial simulation, which combines explicitly fox space use (tessellation polygons) and aeroplane flight lines (straight lines). The number of baits actually falling into each polygon is measured. The manager's strategic options are converted into changes of the resulting bait distribution on the ground. The comparison enables the rating of the options with respect to the management aim (i.e. accessibility of baits). RESULTS: Above 5% (approx. 10%) of all fox groups without any bait (at most 5 baits) relate to the baiting strategy applied in the field (1 km spaced parallel flight lines, 20 baits per km2 distributed) under habitat conditions comparable to middle and western Europe (fox group home-range 1 km2, 2.5 adults; reference strategy). Increasing the bait density on the same flight-line pattern neither reduces the number of under-baited fox group home-ranges, nor improves the management outcome and hence wastes resources. However, reducing the flight line distance provides a more even bait distribution and thus compensates for missed fox groups or extra high fox density.The reference strategy's bait density can be reduced when accounting for the missed fox groups. The management result with the proper strategy is likely the same but with reduced costs. CONCLUSION: There is no overall optimal strategy for the bait distribution in large areas. For major parts of the landscape, the reference strategy will be more competitive. In situations where set backs are attributed to non-homogeneous bait accessibility the distribution scheme has to be refined zone-based (i.e. increase of the flight line length per unit area). However, increase in bait density above the reference strategy appears inappropriate at least for non-urban abundance conditions of the red fox.


Assuntos
Vacina Antirrábica/administração & dosagem , Raiva/prevenção & controle , Vacinação/veterinária , Administração Oral , Animais , Animais Selvagens , Raposas , Raiva/veterinária , Vírus da Raiva , Vacinação/métodos
19.
BMC Infect Dis ; 2: 10, 2002 Jun 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-12069694

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In previous experiments, it was demonstrated that maternal antibodies (maAb) against rabies in foxes (Vulpes vulpes) were transferred from the vixen to her offspring. However, data was lacking from cubs during the first three weeks post partum. Therefore, this complementary study was initiated. METHODS: Blood samples (n = 281) were collected from 64 cubs (3 to 43 days old) whelped by 19 rabies-immune captive-bred vixens. Sera was collected up to six times from each cub. The samples were analysed by a fluorescence focus inhibition technique (RFFIT), and antibody titres (nAb) were expressed in IU/ml. The obtained data was pooled with previous data sets. Subsequently, a total of 499 serum samples from 249 cubs whelped by 54 rabies-immune vixens were fitted to a non-linear regression model. RESULTS: The disappearance rate of maAb was independent of the vixens' nAb-titre. The maAb-titre of the cubs decreased exponentially with age and the half-life of the maAb was estimated to be 9.34 days. However, maAb of offspring whelped by vixens with high nAb-titres can be detected for longer in RFFIT than that of offspring whelped by vixens with relatively low nAb-titres. At a mean critical age of about 23 days post partum, maAb could no longer be distinguished from unspecific reactions in RFFIT depending on the amount of maAb transferred by the mother. CONCLUSIONS: The amount of maAb cubs receive is directly proportional to the titre of the vixen and decreases exponentially with age below detectable levels in seroneutralisation tests at a relatively early age.


Assuntos
Anticorpos Antivirais/sangue , Raposas/imunologia , Raiva/imunologia , Fatores Etários , Animais , Meia-Vida , Imunidade , Cinética
20.
Hum Vaccin Immunother ; 10(10): 2799-804, 2014.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25483634

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Rabies is a neglected zoonotic disease caused by viruses belonging to the genus lyssavirus. In endemic countries of Asia and Africa, where the majority of the estimated 60,000 human rabies deaths occur, it is mainly caused by the classical rabies virus (RABV) transmitted by dogs. Over the last decade new species within the genus lyssavirus have been identified. Meanwhile 15 (proposed or classified) species exist, including Australian bat lyssavirus (ABLV), European bat lyssavirus (EBLV-1 and -2), Duvenhage virus (DUVV), as well as Lagos bat virus (LBV) and Mokola virus (MOKV) and recently identified novel species like Bokeloh bat lyssavirus (BBLV), Ikoma bat lyssavirus (IKOV) or Lleida bat lyssavirus (LLBV). The majority of these lyssavirus species are found in bat reservoirs and some have caused human infection and deaths. Previous work has demonstrated that Purified Chick Embryo Cell Rabies Vaccine (PCECV) not only induces immune responses against classical RABV, but also elicits cross-neutralizing antibodies against ABLV, EBLV-1 and EBLV-2. MATERIAL & METHODS: Using the same serum samples as in our previous study, this study extension investigated cross-neutralizing activities of serum antibodies measured by rapid fluorescent focus inhibition test (RFFIT) against selected other non-classical lyssavirus species of interest, namely DUVV and BBLV, as well as MOKV and LBV. RESULTS: Antibodies developed after vaccination with PCECV have neutralizing capability against BBLV and DUVV in the same range as against ABLV and EBLV-1 and -2. As expected, for the phylogenetically more distant species LBV no cross-neutralizing activity was found. Interestingly, 15 of 94 serum samples (16%) with a positive neutralizing antibody titer against RABV displayed specific cross-neutralizing activity (65-fold lower than against RABV) against one specific MOKV strain (Ethiopia isolate), which was not seen against a different strain (Nigeria isolate). CONCLUSION: Cross-neutralizing activities partly correlate with the phylogenetic distance of the virus species. Cross-neutralizing activities against the species BBLV and DUVV of phylogroup 1 were demonstrated, in line with previous results of cross-neutralizing activities against ABLV and EBLV-1 and -2. Potential partial cross-neutralizing activities against more distant lyssavirus species like selected MOKV strains need further research.


Assuntos
Anticorpos Antivirais/imunologia , Proteção Cruzada/imunologia , Lyssavirus/imunologia , Vacina Antirrábica/imunologia , Raiva/prevenção & controle , Animais , Anticorpos Neutralizantes/imunologia , Embrião de Galinha , Cães , Humanos , Lyssavirus/classificação , Raiva/imunologia , Vacinação
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