Effect on blood pressure and eye health symptoms in a climate-financed randomized cookstove intervention study in rural India.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution from cooking with solid fuels is a potentially modifiable risk factor for increased blood pressure and may lead to eye irritation. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate whether a climate motivated cookstove intervention reduced blood pressure and eye irritation symptoms in Indian women. METHODS: Households using traditional stoves were randomized to receive a rocket stove or continue using traditional stoves. Systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and self-reported eye symptoms were measured twice, pre-intervention and at least 124 days post-intervention in women > 25 years old in control (N = 111) and intervention (N = 111) groups in rural Karnataka, India. Daily (24-h) fine particle (PM2.5) mass and absorbance (Abs) were measured in cooking areas at each visit. Mixed-effect models were used to estimate before-and-after differences in SBP, DBP and eye symptoms. RESULTS: We observed a lower SBP (-2.0 (-4.5, 0.5) mmHg) and DBP (-1.1 (-2.9, 0.6) mmHg) among exclusive users of intervention stove, although confidence intervals included zero. Stacking or mixed use of intervention and traditional stoves contributed to a small increase in SBP 2.6 (-0.4, 5.7) mmHg) and DBP (1.2 (-0.9, 3.3) mmHg). Exclusive and mixed stove users experienced higher post-intervention reductions, on average, in self-reported eye irritation symptoms for burning sensation in eyes, and eyes look red often compared to control. Median air pollutant concentrations increased post-intervention in all stove groups, with the lowest median PM2.5 increase in the exclusive intervention stove group. CONCLUSIONS: Health benefits were limited due to stacking and lower-than-predicted efficiency of the intervention stove in the field. Stove adoption and use behavior, in addition to stove technology, affects achievement of health co-benefits. Carbon-financing schemes need to align with international guidelines that have been set based on health outcomes to maximize health co-benefits from cookstove interventions.

Two-scale dispersal estimation for biological invasions via synthetic likelihood.

Biological invasions reshape environments and affect the ecological and economic welfare of states and communities. Such invasions advance on multiple spatial scales, complicating their control. When modeling stochastic dispersal processes, intractable likelihoods and autocorrelated data complicate parameter estimation. As with other approaches, the recent synthetic likelihood framework for stochastic models uses summary statistics to reduce this complexity; however, it additionally provides usable likelihoods, facilitating the use of existing likelihood-based machinery. Here, we extend this framework to parameterize multi-scale spatio-temporal dispersal models and compare existing and newly developed spatial summary statistics to characterize dispersal patterns. We provide general methods to evaluate potential summary statistics and present a fitting procedure that accurately estimates dispersal parameters on simulated data. Finally, we apply our methods to quantify the short and long range dispersal of Chagas disease vectors in urban Arequipa, Peru, and assess the feasibility of a purely reactive strategy to contain the invasion.

Health and Climate-Relevant Pollutant Concentrations from a Carbon-Finance Approved Cookstove Intervention in Rural India.

Efforts to introduce more efficient stoves increasingly leverage carbon-finance to scale up dissemination of interventions. We conducted a randomized intervention study to evaluate a Clean Development Mechanism approved stove replacement impact on fuelwood usage, and climate and health-relevant air pollutants. We randomly assigned 187 households to either receive the intervention or to continue using traditional stoves. Measurements of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and absorbance were conducted in cooking areas, village center and at upwind background site. There were minor and overlapping seasonal differences (post- minus preintervention change) between control and intervention groups for median (95% CI) fuel use (-0.60 (-1.02, -0.22) vs -0.52 (-1.07, 0.00) kg day(-1)), and 24 h absorbance (35 (18, 60) vs 36 (22, 50) × 10(-6) m(-1)); for 24 h PM2.5, there was a higher (139 (61,229) vs 73(-6, 156) µg m(-3))) increase in control compared to intervention homes between the two seasons. Forty percent of the intervention homes continued using traditional stoves. For intervention homes, absorbance-to-mass ratios suggest a higher proportion of black carbon in PM2.5 emitted from intervention compared with traditional stoves. Absent of field-based evaluation, stove interventions may be pursued that fail to realize expected carbon reductions or anticipated health and climate cobenefits.

Seasons, Searches, and Intentions: What The Internet Can Tell Us About The Bed Bug (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) Epidemic.

The common bed bug (Cimex lectularius L.) is once again prevalent in the United States. We investigated temporal patterns in Google search queries for bed bugs and co-occurring terms, and conducted in-person surveys to explore the intentions behind searches that included those terms. Searches for "bed bugs" rose steadily through 2011 and then plateaued, suggesting that the epidemic has reached an equilibrium in the United States. However, queries including terms that survey respondents associated strongly with having bed bugs (e.g., "exterminator," "remedies") continued to climb, while terms more closely associated with informational searches (e.g., "hotels," "about") fell. Respondents' rankings of terms and nonseasonal trends in Google search volume as assessed by a cosinor model were significantly correlated (Kendall's Tau-b P = 0.015). We find no evidence from Google Trends that the bed bug epidemic in the United States has reached equilibrium.

A panel study of the acute effects of personal exposure to household air pollution on ambulatory blood pressure in rural Indian women.

BACKGROUND: Almost half the world's population is exposed to household air pollution from biomass and coal combustion. The acute effects of household air pollution on the cardiovascular system are poorly characterized. We conducted a panel study of rural Indian women to assess whether personal exposures to black carbon during cooking were associated with acute changes in blood pressure. METHODS: We enrolled 45 women (ages 25-66 years) who cooked with biomass fuels. During cooking sessions in winter and summer, we simultaneously measured their personal real-time exposure to black carbon and conducted ambulatory blood pressure measurements every 10min. We recorded ambient temperature and participants' activities while cooking. We assessed body mass index, socioeconomic status, and salt intake. Multivariate mixed effects regression models with random intercepts were used to estimate the associations between blood pressure and black carbon exposure, e.g., average exposure in the minutes preceding blood pressure measurement, and average exposure over an entire cooking session. RESULTS: Women's geometric mean (GM) exposure to black carbon during cooking sessions was lower in winter (GM: 40µg/m(3); 95% CI: 30, 53) than in summer (GM: 56µg/m(3); 95% CI: 42, 76). Interquartile range increases in black carbon were associated with changes in systolic blood pressure from -0.4mm Hg (95% CI: -2.3, 1.5) to 1.9mm Hg (95% CI: -0.8, 4.7), with associations increasing in magnitude as black carbon values were assessed over greater time periods preceding blood pressure measurement. Interquartile range increases in black carbon were associated with small decreases in diastolic blood pressure from -0.9mm Hg (95% CI: -1.7, -0.1) to -0.4mm Hg (95% CI: -1.6, 0.8). Associations of a similar magnitude were estimated for cooking session-averaged values. CONCLUSIONS: We found some evidence of an association between exposure to black carbon and acute increases in systolic blood pressure in Indian women cooking with biomass fuels, which may have implications for the development of cardiovascular diseases.

The effects of city streets on an urban disease vector.

With increasing urbanization vector-borne diseases are quickly developing in cities, and urban control strategies are needed. If streets are shown to be barriers to disease vectors, city blocks could be used as a convenient and relevant spatial unit of study and control. Unfortunately, existing spatial analysis tools do not allow for assessment of the impact of an urban grid on the presence of disease agents. Here, we first propose a method to test for the significance of the impact of streets on vector infestation based on a decomposition of Moran's spatial autocorrelation index; and second, develop a Gaussian Field Latent Class model to finely describe the effect of streets while controlling for cofactors and imperfect detection of vectors. We apply these methods to cross-sectional data of infestation by the Chagas disease vector Triatoma infestans in the city of Arequipa, Peru. Our Moran's decomposition test reveals that the distribution of T. infestans in this urban environment is significantly constrained by streets (p<0.05). With the Gaussian Field Latent Class model we confirm that streets provide a barrier against infestation and further show that greater than 90% of the spatial component of the probability of vector presence is explained by the correlation among houses within city blocks. The city block is thus likely to be an appropriate spatial unit to describe and control T. infestans in an urban context. Characteristics of the urban grid can influence the spatial dynamics of vector borne disease and should be considered when designing public health policies.

Emission factors of health- and climate-relevant pollutants measured in home during a carbon-finance-approved cookstove intervention in rural India.

We present results of an emission characterization effort, completed as part of a larger intervention trial, of a carbon-finance-approved program replacing traditional cookstoves with "rocket"-style natural draft stoves. The 100 emission tests were conducted across 31 households in control and intervention groups, with repeated tests in most households during preintervention and postintervention periods. While mean fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emission factor for intervention stoves was significantly lower than for traditional stoves in baseline measurements, they were only marginally lower than traditional stoves during follow-up. Intervention stove PM2.5 emissions had a larger contribution from light-absorbing (elemental) carbon than traditional stoves. Repeated measurements in control households provide evidence for strong seasonality, likely due to differences in fuel moisture/types, in traditional stove emissions, with important implications for study design. Seasonality observed in control household emission factors (baseline > follow-up) was in the opposite direction as that observed in indoor PM2.5 concentrations (baseline < follow-up), highlighting that seasonally varying conditions (e.g., ventilation rates) may modify the link between emissions and exposures. Emission factor differences in paired (pre/post) tests from the same households were similar to differences in the medians of entire groups, suggesting variability is dominated by test-to-test variation. Emission reductions from intervention stoves were significantly smaller than laboratory performance would suggest or that are required to strongly reduce exposures. Field emissions assessment like that presented here should be prioritized early in technology assessment and development to provide rigorous estimates of the benefits reasonably expected from interventions with the potential for substantial benefits to human health and the environment.

MMR vaccination status of children exempted from school-entry immunization mandates.

BACKGROUND: Child immunizations are one of the most successful public health interventions of the past century. Still, parental vaccine hesitancy is widespread and increasing. One manifestation of this are rising rates of nonmedical or "personal beliefs" exemptions (PBEs) from school-entry immunization mandates. Exemptions have been shown to be associated with increased risk of disease outbreak, but the strength of this association depends critically on the true vaccination status of exempted children, which has not been assessed. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the true measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination status of children with PBEs. METHODS: We use administrative data collected by the California Department of Public Health in 2009 and imputation to estimate the MMR vaccination status of children with PBEs under varying scenarios. RESULTS: Results from 2009 surveillance data indicate MMR1/MMR2 coverage of 18-47% among children with PBEs at typical schools and 11-34% among children with PBEs at schools with high PBE rates. Imputation scenarios point to much higher coverage (64-92% for MMR1 and 25-58% for MMR2 at typical schools; 49-90% for MMR1 and 16-63% for MMR2 at high PBE schools) but still below levels needed to maintain herd immunity against measles. CONCLUSIONS: These coverage estimates suggest that prior analyses of the relative risk of measles associated with vaccine refusal underestimate that risk by an order of magnitude of 2-10 times.