The cost of not acting: Delaying invasive grass management increases costs and threatens assets in a national park, northern Australia.

Globally, invasive grasses are a major threat to protected areas (PAs) due to their ability to alter community structure and function, reduce biodiversity, and alter fire regimes. However, there is often a mismatch between the threat posed by invasive grasses and the management response. We document a case study of the spread and management of the ecosystem-transforming invasive grass, Andropogon gayanus Kunth. (gamba grass), in Litchfield National Park; an iconic PA in northern Australia that contains significant natural, cultural and social values. We undertook helicopter-based surveys of A. gayanus across 143,931 ha of Litchfield National Park in 2014 and 2021-2022. We used these data to parametrise a spatially-explicit spread model, interfaced with a management simulation model to predict 10-year patterns of spread, and associated management costs, under three scenarios. Our survey showed that between 2014 and 2021-22 A. gayanus spread by 9463 ha, and 47%. The gross A. gayanus infestation covered 29,713 ha of the total survey area, making it the largest national park infestation in Australia. A. gayanus had not been locally eradicated within the Park's small existing 'gamba grass eradication zone', and instead increased by 206 ha over the 7-year timeframe. Our modelled scenarios predict that without active management A. gayanus will continue spreading, covering 42,388 ha of Litchfield within a decade. Alternative scenarios predict that: (i) eradicating A. gayanus in the small existing eradication zone would likely protect 18% of visitor sites, and cost ∼AU$825,000 over 5 years - more than double the original predicted cost in 2014; or (ii) eradicating A. gayanus in a much larger eradication zone would likely protect 86% of visitor sites and several species of conservation significance, and cost ∼AU$6.6 million over 5 years. Totally eradicating A. gayanus from the Park is no longer viable due to substantial spread since 2014. Our study demonstrates the value of systematic landscape-scale surveys and costed management scenarios to enable assessment and prioritisation of weed management. It also demonstrates the increased environmental and financial costs of delaying invasive grass management, and the serious threat A. gayanus poses to PAs across northern Australia.

Combating ecosystem collapse from the tropics to the Antarctic.

Globally, collapse of ecosystems-potentially irreversible change to ecosystem structure, composition and function-imperils biodiversity, human health and well-being. We examine the current state and recent trajectories of 19 ecosystems, spanning 58° of latitude across 7.7 M km2 , from Australia's coral reefs to terrestrial Antarctica. Pressures from global climate change and regional human impacts, occurring as chronic 'presses' and/or acute 'pulses', drive ecosystem collapse. Ecosystem responses to 5-17 pressures were categorised as four collapse profiles-abrupt, smooth, stepped and fluctuating. The manifestation of widespread ecosystem collapse is a stark warning of the necessity to take action. We present a three-step assessment and management framework (3As Pathway Awareness, Anticipation and Action) to aid strategic and effective mitigation to alleviate further degradation to help secure our future.

Net landscape carbon balance of a tropical savanna: Relative importance of fire and aquatic export in offsetting terrestrial production.

The magnitude of the terrestrial carbon (C) sink may be overestimated globally due to the difficulty of accounting for all C losses across heterogeneous landscapes. More complete assessments of net landscape C balances (NLCB) are needed that integrate both emissions by fire and transfer to aquatic systems, two key loss pathways of terrestrial C. These pathways can be particularly significant in the wet-dry tropics, where fire plays a fundamental part in ecosystems and where intense rainfall and seasonal flooding can result in considerable aquatic C export (ΣFaq ). Here, we determined the NLCB of a lowland catchment (~140 km2 ) in tropical Australia over 2 years by evaluating net terrestrial productivity (NEP), fire-related C emissions and ΣFaq (comprising both downstream transport and gaseous evasion) for the two main landscape components, that is, savanna woodland and seasonal wetlands. We found that the catchment was a large C sink (NLCB 334 Mg C km-2  year-1 ), and that savanna and wetland areas contributed 84% and 16% to this sink, respectively. Annually, fire emissions (-56 Mg C km-2  year-1 ) and ΣFaq (-28 Mg C km-2  year-1 ) reduced NEP by 13% and 7%, respectively. Savanna burning shifted the catchment to a net C source for several months during the dry season, while ΣFaq significantly offset NEP during the wet season, with a disproportionate contribution by single major monsoonal events-up to 39% of annual ΣFaq was exported in one event. We hypothesize that wetter and hotter conditions in the wet-dry tropics in the future will increase ΣFaq and fire emissions, potentially further reducing the current C sink in the region. More long-term studies are needed to upscale this first NLCB estimate to less productive, yet hydrologically dynamic regions of the wet-dry tropics where our result indicating a significant C sink may not hold.

Land transformation in tropical savannas preferentially decomposes newly added biomass, whether C3 or C4 derived.

As tropical savannas are undergoing rapid conversion to other land uses, native C3 -C4 vegetation mixtures are often transformed to C3 - or C4 -dominant systems, resulting in poorly understood changes to the soil carbon (C) cycle. Conventional models of the soil C cycle are based on assumptions that more labile components of the heterogenous soil organic C (SOC) pool decompose at faster rates. Meanwhile, previous work has suggested that the C4 -derived component of SOC is more labile than C3 -derived SOC. Here we report on long-term (18 months) soil incubations from native and transformed tropical savannas of northern Australia. We test the hypothesis that, regardless of the type of land conversion, the C4 component of SOC will be preferentially decomposed. We measured changes in the SOC and pyrogenic carbon (PyC) pools, as well as the carbon isotope composition of SOC, PyC and respired CO2 , from 63 soil cores collected intact from different land use change scenarios. Our results show that land use change had no consistent effect on the size of the SOC pool, but strong effects on SOC decomposition rates, with slower decomposition rates at C4 -invaded sites. While we confirm that native savanna soils preferentially decomposed C4 -derived SOC, we also show that transformed savanna soils preferentially decomposed the newly added pool of labile SOC, regardless of whether it was C4 -derived (grass) or C3 -derived (forestry) biomass. Furthermore, we provide evidence that in these fire-prone landscapes, the nature of the PyC pool can shed light on past vegetation composition: while the PyC pool in C4 -dominant sites was mainly derived from C3 biomass, PyC in C3-dominant sites and native savannas was mainly derived from C4 biomass. We develop a framework to systematically assess the effects of recent land use change vs. prior vegetation composition.

Habitat-contingent responses to disturbance: impacts of cattle grazing on ant communities vary with habitat complexity.

Predicting community responses to disturbance is a major challenge for both ecology and ecosystem management. A particularly challenging issue is that the same type and intensity of disturbance can have different impacts in different habitats. We investigate how habitat contingency influences ant community responses to disturbance in arid Australia, testing the hypothesis that disturbance has a greater impact in more complex habitats. We also assess the effectiveness of a highly simplified ant assessment protocol that considers larger species only. We sampled ants at 46 sites from two habitats (Chandler, low chenopod shrubland; and mulga, low woodland) with contrasting complexity, using distance from water as a surrogate for variation in grazing intensity. We assessed variation in habitat structural variables (basal area of perennial grass, and cover of herbs, litter, and bare ground) and ant communities in relation to habitat and distance from water, first using data from the entire ant community and then for larger ants (>4 mm body length) only. Site species richness was almost twice as high in mulga, the more structurally complex habitat, than in Chandler, and ant communities in mulga showed far more variation in relation to distance from water. Litter cover was the key environmental variable associated with the interaction between grazing and habitat: it increased with increasing distance from water in mulga and was virtually absent from Chandler. Analysis of only larger species revealed the same patterns of variation in ant abundance, species richness and composition in relation to habitat and grazing as shown by entire ant communities. Our findings support the hypothesis that disturbance impacts on faunal communities increase with increasing habitat complexity. An appreciation of such habitat contingency is important for a predictive understanding and therefore effective management of disturbances such as rangeland grazing. Our findings also show that simplified assessment can provide robust information on the responses of highly diverse ant communities to disturbance, which enhances their feasibility for use as bio-indicators in land management.

Optimal dynamic control of invasions: applying a systematic conservation approach.

The social, economic, and environmental impacts of invasive plants are well recognized. However, these variable impacts are rarely accounted for in the spatial prioritization of funding for weed management. We examine how current spatially explicit prioritization methods can be extended to identify optimal budget allocations to both eradication and control measures of invasive species to minimize the costs and likelihood of invasion. Our framework extends recent approaches to systematic prioritization of weed management to account for multiple values that are threatened by weed invasions with a multi-year dynamic prioritization approach. We apply our method to the northern portion of the Daly catchment in the Northern Territory, which has significant conservation values that are threatened by gamba grass (Andropogon gayanus), a highly invasive species recognized by the Australian government as a Weed of National Significance (WONS). We interface Marxan, a widely applied conservation planning tool, with a dynamic biophysical model of gamba grass to optimally allocate funds to eradication and control programs under two budget scenarios comparing maximizing gain (MaxGain) and minimizing loss (MinLoss) optimization approaches. The prioritizations support previous findings that a MinLoss approach is a better strategy when threats are more spatially variable than conservation values. Over a 10-year simulation period, we find that a MinLoss approach reduces future infestations by ~8% compared to MaxGain in the constrained budget scenarios and ~12% in the unlimited budget scenarios. We find that due to the extensive current invasion and rapid rate of spread, allocating the annual budget to control efforts is more efficient than funding eradication efforts when there is a constrained budget. Under a constrained budget, applying the most efficient optimization scenario (control, minloss) reduces spread by ~27% compared to no control. Conversely, if the budget is unlimited it is more efficient to fund eradication efforts and reduces spread by ~65% compared to no control.

Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of 'translators' between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.

Fire reduces eucalypt forest flowering phenology at the landscape-scale.

Plant phenology describes the timing of reproductive events including flowering and fruiting, which for many species are affected by fire disturbance. Understanding phenological responses to fire provides insights into how forest demographics and resources may shift alongside increasing fire frequency and intensity driven by climate change. However, isolating the direct effects of fire on a species' phenology and excluding potential confounders (e.g. climate, soil) has been difficult due to the logistical challenges of monitoring species-specific phenological events across myriad fire and environmental conditions. Here, we use CubeSat-derived crown-scale flowering data to estimate the effects of fire history (time since fire and fire severity over a 15-year time span) on flowering of the eucalypt Corymbia calophylla across a Mediterranean-climate forest (814km2) in southwest Australia. We found that fire reduced the proportion of flowering trees at the landscape-scale, and flowering recovered at a rate of 0.15 % (±0.11% SE) per year. Further, this negative effect was significant due to high crown scorch fires (>20% canopy scorch), yet there was no significant effect from understory burns. Estimates were obtained using a quasi-experimental design which identifies the effect of time since fire and severity on flowering by comparing proportional flowering within target fire perimeters (treatment) and adjacent past fire perimeters (control). Given the majority of fires studied were managed fuel reduction burns, we applied the estimates to hypothetical fire regimes to compare flowering outcomes under more or less frequent prescribed burning. This research demonstrates the landscape-scale effects of burning on a tree species' reproduction, which could broadly impact forest resiliency and biodiversity.

Effect of elevated magnesium sulfate on two riparian tree species potentially impacted by mine site contamination.

Globally, mining activities have been responsible for the contamination of soils, surface water and groundwater. Following mine closure, a key issue is the management of leachate from waste rock accumulated during the lifetime of the mine. At Ranger Uranium Mine in northern Australia, magnesium sulfate (MgSO4) leaching from waste rock has been identified as a potentially significant surface and groundwater contaminant which may have adverse affects on catchment biota. The primary objective of this study was to determine the effect of elevated levels of MgSO4 on two riparian trees; Melaleuca viridiflora and Alphitonia excelsa. We found that tolerance to MgSO4 was species-specific. M. viridiflora was tolerant to high concentrations of MgSO4 (15,300 mg l-1), with foliar concentrations of ions suggesting plants regulate uptake. In contrast, A. excelsa was sensitive to elevated concentrations of MgSO4 (960 mg l-1), exhibiting reduced plant vigour and growth. This information improves our understanding of the toxicity of MgSO4 as a mine contaminant and highlights the need for rehabililitation planning to mitigate impacts on some tree species of this region.

New insights into the food web of an Australian tropical river to inform water resource management.

Rivers around the world are threatened by altered flow due to water resource development. Altered flow can change food webs and impact riverine energetics. The Fitzroy River, in northern Australia, is targeted for development but uncertainty remains about the sources of carbon supporting the food web, particularly in the lowlands-the region most likely to be impacted by water extraction. This study used stable isotopes to investigate if algal biofilm is the main carbon source sustaining fish in lowland habitats. We also sought evidence that large-bodied migratory fish were transporting remote carbon around the system. Our results revealed that local algal biofilm carbon was the dominant source of energy sustaining fish in wet season floodplain habitats, but that fish in main-channel pools during the dry season were increasingly dependent on other carbon sources, such as leaf litter or phytoplankton. We found no evidence that large-bodied fish were transporting remote carbon from the floodplain or estuary into the lower main-channel of the river. We recommend that water planners take a precautionary approach to policy until sufficient food web evidence is amassed.

Exotic grass invasion alters microsite conditions limiting woody recruitment potential in an Australian savanna.

Andropogon gayanus Kunth. is a large African tussock grass invading Australia's tropical savannas. Invasion results in more intense fires which increases the mortality rate of adult woody plants. Invasion may also affect community structure by altering the recruitment potential of woody plants. We investigated the effects of A. gayanus invasion on ground-level microclimate, and the carbon assimilation potential and recruitment potential of two Eucalyptus species. We compared microclimatic variables from the early wet-season and into the mid-dry season to coincide with the period of growth of A. gayanus. We assessed Eucalyptus recruitment by monitoring seedling establishment, growth and survival of experimentally sown seed, and estimating seedling density resulting from natural recruitment. A. gayanus invasion was associated with increased grass canopy height, biomass and cover. Following invasion, the understorey microclimate had significantly reduced levels of photon flux density, increased air temperatures and vapour pressure deficit. The conditions were less favourable for woody seedling with aboveground biomass of seedlings reduced by 26% in invaded plots. We estimated that invasion reduced daily carbon assimilation of woody seedlings by ~30% and reduced survivorship of Eucalyptus seedlings. Therefore, A. gayanus invasion reduces recruitment potential, contributing to the transformation of savanna to a grassland ecosystem.

Resource-use efficiency explains grassy weed invasion in a low-resource savanna in north Australia.

Comparative studies of plant resource use and ecophysiological traits of invasive and native resident plant species can elucidate mechanisms of invasion success and ecosystem impacts. In the seasonal tropics of north Australia, the alien C4 perennial grass Andropogon gayanus (gamba grass) has transformed diverse, mixed tree-grass savanna ecosystems into dense monocultures. To better understand the mechanisms of invasion, we compared resource acquisition and usage efficiency using leaf-scale ecophysiological and stand-scale growth traits of A. gayanus with a co-habiting native C4 perennial grass Alloteropsis semialata. Under wet season conditions, A. gayanus had higher rates of stomatal conductance, assimilation, and water use, plus a longer daily assimilation period than the native species A. semialata. Growing season length was also ~2 months longer for the invader. Wet season measures of leaf scale water use efficiency (WUE) and light use efficiency (LUE) did not differ between the two species, although photosynthetic nitrogen use efficiency (PNUE) was significantly higher in A. gayanus. By May (dry season) the drought avoiding native species A. semialata had senesced. In contrast, rates of A. gayanus gas exchange was maintained into the dry season, albeit at lower rates that the wet season, but at higher WUE and PNUE, evidence of significant physiological plasticity. High PNUE and leaf (15)N isotope values suggested that A. gayanus was also capable of preferential uptake of soil ammonium, with utilization occurring into the dry season. High PNUE and fire tolerance in an N-limited and highly flammable ecosystem confers a significant competitive advantage over native grass species and a broader niche width. As a result A. gayanus is rapidly spreading across north Australia with significant consequences for biodiversity and carbon and retention.

Measuring benefits of protected area management: trends across realms and research gaps for freshwater systems.

Protected areas remain a cornerstone for global conservation. However, their effectiveness at halting biodiversity decline is not fully understood. Studies of protected area benefits have largely focused on measuring their impact on halting deforestation and have neglected to measure the impacts of protected areas on other threats. Evaluations that measure the impact of protected area management require more complex evaluation designs and datasets. This is the case across realms (terrestrial, freshwater, marine), but measuring the impact of protected area management in freshwater systems may be even more difficult owing to the high level of connectivity and potential for threat propagation within systems (e.g. downstream flow of pollution). We review the potential barriers to conducting impact evaluation for protected area management in freshwater systems. We contrast the barriers identified for freshwater systems to terrestrial systems and discuss potential measurable outcomes and confounders associated with protected area management across the two realms. We identify key research gaps in conducting impact evaluation in freshwater systems that relate to three of their major characteristics: variability, connectivity and time lags in outcomes. Lastly, we use Kakadu National Park world heritage area, the largest national park in Australia, as a case study to illustrate the challenges of measuring impacts of protected area management programmes for environmental outcomes in freshwater systems.

Adding fuel to the fire: the impacts of non-native grass invasion on fire management at a regional scale.

BACKGROUND: Widespread invasion by non-native plants has resulted in substantial change in fire-fuel characteristics and fire-behaviour in many of the world's ecosystems, with a subsequent increase in the risk of fire damage to human life, property and the environment. Models used by fire management agencies to assess fire risk are dependent on accurate assessments of fuel characteristics but there is little evidence that they have been modified to reflect landscape-scale invasions. There is also a paucity of information documenting other changes in fire management activities that have occurred to mitigate changed fire regimes. This represents an important limitation in information for both fire and weed risk management. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We undertook an aerial survey to estimate changes to landscape fuel loads in northern Australia resulting from invasion by Andropogon gayanus (gamba grass). Fuel load within the most densely invaded area had increased from 6 to 10 t ha(-1) in the past two decades. Assessment of the effect of calculating the Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) for the 2008 and 2009 fire seasons demonstrated that an increase from 6 to 10 t ha(-1) resulted in an increase from five to 38 days with fire risk in the 'severe' category in 2008 and from 11 to 67 days in 2009. The season of severe fire weather increased by six weeks. Our assessment of the effect of increased fuel load on fire management practices showed that fire management costs in the region have increased markedly (∼9 times) in the past decade due primarily to A. gayanus invasion. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrated the high economic cost of mitigating fire impacts of an invasive grass. This study demonstrates the need to quantify direct and indirect invasion costs to assess the risk of further invasion and to appropriately fund fire and weed management strategies.