Novel application of one-step pooled molecular testing and maximum likelihood approaches to estimate the prevalence of malaria parasitaemia among rapid diagnostic test negative samples in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Detection of malaria parasitaemia in samples that are negative by rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) requires resource-intensive molecular tools. While pooled testing using a two-step strategy provides a cost-saving alternative to the gold standard of individual sample testing, statistical adjustments are needed to improve accuracy of prevalence estimates for a single step pooled testing strategy. METHODS: A random sample of 4670 malaria RDT negative dried blood spot samples were selected from a mass testing and treatment trial in Asembo, Gem, and Karemo, western Kenya. Samples were tested for malaria individually and in pools of five, 934 pools, by one-step quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Maximum likelihood approaches were used to estimate subpatent parasitaemia (RDT-negative, qPCR-positive) prevalence by pooling, assuming poolwise sensitivity and specificity was either 100% (strategy A) or imperfect (strategy B). To improve and illustrate the practicality of this estimation approach, a validation study was constructed from pools allocated at random into main (734 pools) and validation (200 pools) subsets. Prevalence was estimated using strategies A and B and an inverse-variance weighted estimator and estimates were weighted to account for differential sampling rates by area. RESULTS: The prevalence of subpatent parasitaemia was 14.5% (95% CI 13.6-15.3%) by individual qPCR, 9.5% (95% CI (8.5-10.5%) by strategy A, and 13.9% (95% CI 12.6-15.2%) by strategy B. In the validation study, the prevalence by individual qPCR was 13.5% (95% CI 12.4-14.7%) in the main subset, 8.9% (95% CI 7.9-9.9%) by strategy A, 11.4% (95% CI 9.9-12.9%) by strategy B, and 12.8% (95% CI 11.2-14.3%) using inverse-variance weighted estimator from poolwise validation. Pooling, including a 20% validation subset, reduced costs by 52% compared to individual testing. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to individual testing, a one-step pooled testing strategy with an internal validation subset can provide accurate prevalence estimates of PCR-positivity among RDT-negatives at a lower cost.

Temporal trends in molecular markers of drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum in human blood and profiles of corresponding resistant markers in mosquito oocysts in Asembo, western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Over the last two decades, the scale-up of vector control and changes in the first-line anti-malarial, from chloroquine (CQ) to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) and then to artemether-lumefantrine (AL), have resulted in significant decreases in malaria burden in western Kenya. This study evaluated the long-term effects of control interventions on molecular markers of Plasmodium falciparum drug resistance using parasites obtained from humans and mosquitoes at discrete time points. METHODS: Dried blood spot samples collected in 2012 and 2017 community surveys in Asembo, Kenya were genotyped by Sanger sequencing for markers associated with resistance to SP (Pfdhfr, Pfdhps), CQ, AQ, lumefantrine (Pfcrt, Pfmdr1) and artemisinin (Pfk13). Temporal trends in the prevalence of these markers, including data from 2012 to 2017 as well as published data from 1996, 2001, 2007 from same area, were analysed. The same markers from mosquito oocysts collected in 2012 were compared with results from human blood samples. RESULTS: The prevalence of SP dhfr/dhps quintuple mutant haplotype C50I51R59N108I164/S436G437E540A581A613 increased from 19.7% in 1996 to 86.0% in 2012, while an increase in the sextuple mutant haplotype C50I51R59N108I164/H436G437E540A581A613 containing Pfdhps-436H was found from 10.5% in 2012 to 34.6% in 2017. Resistant Pfcrt-76 T declined from 94.6% in 2007 to 18.3% in 2012 and 0.9% in 2017. Mutant Pfmdr1-86Y decreased across years from 74.8% in 1996 to zero in 2017, mutant Pfmdr1-184F and wild Pfmdr1-D1246 increased from 17.9% to 58.9% in 2007 to 55.9% and 90.1% in 2017, respectively. Pfmdr1 haplotype N86F184S1034N1042D1246 increased from 11.0% in 2007 to 49.6% in 2017. No resistant mutations in Pfk13 were found. Prevalence of Pfdhps-436H was lower while prevalence of Pfcrt-76 T was higher in mosquitoes than in human blood samples. CONCLUSION: This study showed an increased prevalence of dhfr/dhps resistant markers over 20 years with the emergence of Pfdhps-436H mutant a decade ago in Asembo. The reversal of Pfcrt from CQ-resistant to CQ-sensitive genotype occurred following 19 years of CQ withdrawal. No Pfk13 markers associated with artemisinin resistance were detected, but the increased haplotype of Pfmdr1 N86F184S1034N1042D1246 was observed. The differences in prevalence of Pfdhps-436H and Pfcrt-76 T SNPs between two hosts and the role of mosquitoes in the transmission of drug resistant parasites require further investigation.

Mass drug administration for malaria.

BACKGROUND: Studies evaluating mass drug administration (MDA) in malarious areas have shown reductions in malaria immediately following the intervention. However, these effects vary by endemicity and are not sustained. Since the 2013 version of this Cochrane Review on this topic, additional studies have been published. OBJECTIVES: Primary objectives To assess the sustained effect of MDA with antimalarial drugs on: - the reduction in malaria transmission in moderate- to high-transmission settings; - the interruption of transmission in very low- to low-transmission settings. Secondary objective To summarize the risk of drug-associated adverse effects following MDA. SEARCH METHODS: We searched several trial registries, citation databases, conference proceedings, and reference lists for relevant articles up to 11 February 2021. We also communicated with researchers to identify additional published and unpublished studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomized studies comparing MDA to no MDA with balanced co-interventions across study arms and at least two geographically distinct sites per study arm. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed trials for eligibility and extracted data. We calculated relative risk (RR) and rate ratios with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to compare prevalence and incidence, respectively, in MDA compared to no-MDA groups. We stratified analyses by malaria transmission and by malaria species. For cluster-randomized controlled trials (cRCTs), we adjusted standard errors using the intracluster correlation coefficient. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach. For non-randomized controlled before-and-after (CBA) studies, we summarized the data using difference-in-differences (DiD) analyses. MAIN RESULTS: Thirteen studies met our criteria for inclusion. Ten were cRCTs and three were CBAs. Cluster-randomized controlled trials Moderate- to high-endemicity areas (prevalence ≥ 10%) We included data from two studies conducted in The Gambia and Zambia.  At one to three months after MDA, the Plasmodium falciparum (hereafter, P falciparum) parasitaemia prevalence estimates may be higher compared to control but the CIs included no effect (RR 1.76, 95% CI 0.58 to 5.36; Zambia study; low-certainty evidence); parasitaemia incidence was probably lower (RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.92; The Gambia study; moderate-certainty evidence); and confirmed malaria illness incidence may be substantially lower,  but the CIs included no effect (rate ratio 0.41, 95% CI 0.04 to 4.42; Zambia study; low-certainty evidence).  At four to six months after MDA, MDA showed little or no effect on P falciparum parasitaemia prevalence (RR 1.18, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.56; The Gambia study; moderate-certainty evidence) and, no persisting effect was demonstrated with parasitaemia incidence (rate ratio 0.91, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.50; The Gambia study). Very low- to low-endemicity areas (prevalence < 10%) Seven studies from Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar (two studies), Vietnam, Zambia, and Zanzibar evaluated the effects of multiple rounds of MDA on P falciparum. Immediately following MDA (less than one month after MDA), parasitaemia prevalence was reduced (RR 0.12, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.52; one study; low-certainty evidence). At one to three months after MDA, there was a reduction in both parasitaemia incidence (rate ratio 0.37, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.55; 1 study; moderate-certainty evidence) and prevalence (RR 0.25, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.41; 7 studies; low-certainty evidence). For confirmed malaria incidence, absolute rates were low, and it is uncertain whether MDA had an effect on this outcome (rate ratio 0.58, 95% CI 0.12 to 2.73; 2 studies; very low-certainty evidence).  For P falciparum prevalence, the relative differences declined over time, from RR 0.63 (95% CI 0.36 to 1.12; 4 studies) at four to six months after MDA, to RR 0.86 (95% CI 0.55 to 1.36; 5 studies) at 7 to 12 months after MDA. Longer-term prevalence estimates showed overall low absolute risks, and relative effect estimates of the effect of MDA on prevalence varied from RR 0.82 (95% CI 0.20 to 3.34) at 13 to 18 months after MDA, to RR 1.25 (95% CI 0.25 to 6.31) at 31 to 36 months after MDA in one study. Five studies from Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar (2 studies), and Vietnam evaluated the effect of MDA on Plasmodium vivax (hereafter, P vivax). One month following MDA, P vivax prevalence was lower (RR 0.18, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.40; 1 study; low-certainty evidence). At one to three months after MDA, there was a reduction in P vivax prevalence (RR 0.15, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.24; 5 studies; low-certainty evidence). The immediate reduction on P vivax prevalence was not sustained over time, from RR 0.78 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.95; 4 studies) at four to six months after MDA, to RR 1.12 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.32; 5 studies) at 7 to 12 months after MDA. One of the studies in Myanmar provided estimates of longer-term effects, where overall absolute risks were low, ranging from RR 0.81 (95% CI 0.44 to 1.48) at 13 to 18 months after MDA, to RR 1.20 (95% CI 0.44 to 3.29) at 31 to 36 months after MDA. Non-randomized studies Three CBA studies were conducted in moderate- to high-transmission areas in Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Nigeria. There was a reduction in P falciparum parasitaemia prevalence in MDA groups compared to control groups during MDA (DiD range: -15.8 to -61.4 percentage points), but the effect varied at one to three months after MDA (DiD range: 14.9 to -41.1 percentage points).  AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: In moderate- to high-transmission settings, no studies reported important effects on P falciparum parasitaemia prevalence within six months after MDA. In very low- to low-transmission settings, parasitaemia prevalence and incidence were reduced initially for up to three months for both P falciparum and P vivax; longer-term data did not demonstrate an effect after four months, but absolute risks in both intervention and control groups were low. No studies provided evidence of interruption of malaria transmission.

The effectiveness of older insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) to prevent malaria infection in an area of moderate pyrethroid resistance: results from a cohort study in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: A previous cohort study in Malawi showed that users of new insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) were significantly protected against malaria compared to non-users, despite moderate levels of pyrethroid resistance among the primary mosquito vectors. The present study investigated whether ITNs that were 1-2 years old continued to protect users in the same area with moderate pyrethroid resistance. METHODS: One year following a baseline cross-sectional malaria parasitaemia prevalence survey and universal distribution of deltamethrin ITNs (May 2012), a fixed cohort of 1223 children aged 6-59 months was enrolled (April 2013). Children were tested for parasitaemia at monthly scheduled visits and at unscheduled sick visits from May to December 2013 using rapid diagnostic tests. ITN use the prior night and the condition of ITNs (based on presence of holes) was assessed by caregiver self-report. The incidence rate ratio (RR) comparing malaria infection among users and non-users of ITNs was modelled using generalized estimating equations adjusting for potential confounders and accounting for repeated measures on each child. The protective efficacy (PE) of ITN use was calculated as 1 - RR. RESULTS: In this cohort, self-reported ITN use remained consistently high (> 95%) over the study period. Although users of ITNs were slightly more protected compared to non-users of ITNs, the difference in incidence of infection was not statistically significant (RR 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54-1.27). Among ITN users, malaria incidence was significantly lower in users of ITNs with no holes (of any size) compared to users of ITNs with ≥ 1 hole (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.69-0.98). CONCLUSIONS: There was no significant PE of using 1-2 year-old ITNs on the incidence of malaria in children in an area of moderate pyrethroid resistance, but among ITN users, the authors found increased protection by ITNs with no holes compared to ITNs with holes. Given the moderate levels of pyrethroid resistance in the primary malaria vector and recent evidence of added benefits of ITNs with synergists or non-pyrethroid insecticides, next-generation ITNs may be a useful strategy to address pyrethroid resistance and should be further explored in Malawi.

State-level minimum wage and heart disease death rates in the United States, 1980-2015: A novel application of marginal structural modeling.

Despite substantial declines since the 1960's, heart disease remains the leading cause of death in the United States (US) and geographic disparities in heart disease mortality have grown. State-level socioeconomic factors might be important contributors to geographic differences in heart disease mortality. This study examined the association between state-level minimum wage increases above the federal minimum wage and heart disease death rates from 1980 to 2015 among 'working age' individuals aged 35-64 years in the US. Annual, inflation-adjusted state and federal minimum wage data were extracted from legal databases and annual state-level heart disease death rates were obtained from CDC Wonder. Although most minimum wage and health studies to date use conventional regression models, we employed marginal structural models to account for possible time-varying confounding. Quasi-experimental, marginal structural models accounting for state, year, and state × year fixed effects estimated the association between increases in the state-level minimum wage above the federal minimum wage and heart disease death rates. In models of 'working age' adults (35-64 years old), a $1 increase in the state-level minimum wage above the federal minimum wage was on average associated with ~6 fewer heart disease deaths per 100,000 (95% CI: -10.4, -1.99), or a state-level heart disease death rate that was 3.5% lower per year. In contrast, for older adults (65+ years old) a $1 increase was on average associated with a 1.1% lower state-level heart disease death rate per year (b = -28.9 per 100,000, 95% CI: -71.1, 13.3). State-level economic policies are important targets for population health research.

The effect of holes in long-lasting insecticidal nets on malaria in Malawi: results from a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are a cornerstone of malaria prevention. Holes develop in LLINs over time and compromise their physical integrity, but how holes affect malaria transmission risk is not well known. METHODS: After a nationwide mass LLIN distribution in July 2012, a study was conducted to assess the relationship between LLIN damage and malaria. From March to September 2013, febrile children ages 6-59 months who consistently slept under LLINs (every night for 2 weeks before illness onset) were enrolled in a case-control study at Machinga District Hospital outpatient department. Cases were positive for Plasmodium falciparum asexual parasites by microscopy while controls were negative. Digital photographs of participants' LLINs were analysed using an image-processing programme to measure holes. Total hole area was classified by quartiles and according to the World Health Organization's proportionate hole index (pHI) cut-offs [< 79 cm2 (good), 80-789 cm2 (damaged), and > 790 cm2 (too torn)]. Number of holes by location and size, and total hole area, were compared between case and control LLINs using non-parametric analyses and logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 248 LLINs analysed, 97 (39%) were from cases. Overall, 86% of LLINs had at least one hole. The median number of holes of any size was 9 [interquartile range (IQR) 3, 22], and most holes were located in the lower halves of the nets [median 7 (IQR 2, 16)]. There were no differences in number or location of holes between LLINs used by cases and controls. The median total hole area was 10 cm2 (IQR 2, 125) for control LLINs and 8 cm2 (IQR 2, 47) for case LLINs (p = 0.10). Based on pHI, 109 (72%) control LLINs and 83 (86%) case LLINs were in "good" condition. Multivariable modeling showed no association between total hole area and malaria, controlling for child age, caregiver education, and iron versus thatched roof houses. CONCLUSIONS: LLIN holes were not associated with increased odds of malaria in this study. However, most of the LLINs were in relatively good condition 1 year after distribution. Future studies should examine associations between LLIN holes and malaria risk with more damaged nets.

Household costs among patients hospitalized with malaria: evidence from a national survey in Malawi, 2012.

BACKGROUND: With 71% of Malawians living on < $1.90 a day, high household costs associated with severe malaria are likely a major economic burden for low income families and may constitute an important barrier to care seeking. Nevertheless, few efforts have been made to examine these costs. This paper describes household costs associated with seeking and receiving inpatient care for malaria in health facilities in Malawi. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a representative nationwide sample of 36 health facilities providing inpatient treatment for malaria from June-August, 2012. Patients admitted at least 12 h before study team visits who had been prescribed an antimalarial after admission were eligible to provide cost information for their malaria episode, including care seeking at previous health facilities. An ingredients-based approach was used to estimate direct costs. Indirect costs were estimated using a human capital approach. Key drivers of total household costs for illness episodes resulting in malaria admission were assessed by fitting a generalized linear model, accounting for clustering at the health facility level. RESULTS: Out of 100 patients who met the eligibility criteria, 80 (80%) provided cost information for their entire illness episode to date and were included: 39% of patients were under 5 years old and 75% had sought care for the malaria episode at other facilities prior to coming to the current facility. Total household costs averaged $17.48 per patient; direct and indirect household costs averaged $7.59 and $9.90, respectively. Facility management type, household distance from the health facility, patient age, high household wealth, and duration of hospital stay were all significant drivers of overall costs. CONCLUSIONS: Although malaria treatment is supposed to be free in public health facilities, households in Malawi still incur high direct and indirect costs for malaria illness episodes that result in hospital admission. Finding ways to minimize the economic burden of inpatient malaria care is crucial to protect households from potentially catastrophic health expenditures.

Adherence to national guidelines for the diagnosis and management of severe malaria: a nationwide, cross-sectional survey in Malawi, 2012.

BACKGROUND: Severe malaria has a case fatality rate of 10-20 %; however, few studies have addressed the quality of severe malaria case management. This study evaluated the diagnostic and treatment practices of malaria patients admitted to inpatient health facilities (HF) in Malawi. METHODS: In July-August 2012, a nationwide, cross-sectional survey of severe malaria management was conducted in 36 HFs selected with equal probability from all eligible public sector HFs in Malawi. Patient records from all admissions during October 2011 and April 2012 (low and high season, respectively) were screened for an admission diagnosis of malaria or prescription of any anti-malarial. Eligible records were stratified by age (< 5 or ≥ 5 years). A maximum of eight records was randomly selected within each age and month stratum. Severe malaria was defined by admission diagnosis or documentation of at least one sign or symptom of severe malaria. Treatment with intravenous (IV) quinine or artesunate was considered correct. Patients without documentation of severe malaria were analysed as uncomplicated malaria patients; treatment with an artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) or oral quinine based on malaria test results was considered correct. All analyses accounted for HF level clustering and sampling weights. RESULTS: The analysis included 906 records from 35 HFs. Among these, 42 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 35-49) had a severe malaria admission diagnosis and 50 % (95 % CI 44-57) had at least one severe malaria sign or symptom documented. Severe malaria patients defined by admission diagnosis (93, 95 % CI 86-99) were more likely to be treated correctly compared to patients defined by a severe sign (82, 95 % CI 75-89) (p < 0.0001). Among uncomplicated malaria patients, 26 % (95 % CI 18-35) were correctly treated and 53 % (95 % CI 42-64) were adequately treated with IV quinine alone or in combination with an ACT or oral quinine. CONCLUSIONS: A majority of patients diagnosed with severe malaria received the recommended IV therapy in accordance with national treatment guidelines. However, the inconsistencies between diagnosis of severe malaria and documentation of severe signs and symptoms highlight the need to improve healthcare worker recognition and documentation of severe signs and symptoms.

The effectiveness of long-lasting, insecticide-treated nets in a setting of pyrethroid resistance: a case-control study among febrile children 6 to 59 months of age in Machinga District, Malawi.

BACKGROUND: The escalating level of mosquito resistance to pyrethroid insecticides threatens the effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) for malaria control in Malawi. An evaluation of the effectiveness of ITNs for preventing malaria in children aged 6-59 months old, after 1 year of mass distribution of LLINs was conducted in Machinga District, Malawi, an area of moderate pyrethroid resistance. METHODS: A facility-based, case-control study among children 6-59 months was conducted in an area of pyrethroid resistance between March and September 2013 in Machinga District. Cases and controls were children with fever who sought care from the same hospital and tested positive and negative, respectively, for malaria parasites by microscopy. RESULTS: A high proportion of both cases (354 of 404 or 87.6 %) and controls (660 of 778 or 84.8 %) slept under an ITN the night before the survey. In univariable logistic regression, older age (24-59 months versus 6-23 months, p < 0.001), sleeping on the floor versus a mattress (p < 0.001), and open versus closed house eaves (p = 0.001) were associated with increased odds of malaria, whilst secondary education of the caretaker, having windows on multiple walls, and being in the least poor wealth quintile (p < 0.001 for each) reduced the odds of malaria; ITN use was not associated with malaria (p = 0.181). In multivariable analysis, older age (p < 0.001) and secondary education of the caregiver (p = 0.011) were the only factors significantly associated with malaria. CONCLUSION: This study did not find a significant personal protective effect of ITNs. However, high use of ITNs in the community and recent findings of lower malaria incidence in ITN users compared to bed net non-users from a cohort study in the same area suggest that ITNs provide community protection to both users and non-users alike in this area.

Genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum parasite by microsatellite markers after scale-up of insecticide-treated bed nets in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: An initial study of genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum in Asembo, western Kenya showed that the parasite maintained overall genetic stability 5 years after insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) introduction in 1997. This study investigates further the genetic diversity of P. falciparum 10 years after initial ITN introduction in the same study area and compares this with two other neighbouring areas, where ITNs were introduced in 1998 (Gem) and 2004 (Karemo). METHODS: From a cross-sectional survey conducted in 2007, 235 smear-positive blood samples collected from children ≤15-year-old in the original study area and two comparison areas were genotyped employing eight neutral microsatellites. Differences in multiple infections, allele frequency, parasite genetic diversity and parasite population structure between the three areas were assessed. Further, molecular data reported previously (1996 and 2001) were compared to the 2007 results in the original study area Asembo. RESULTS: Overall proportion of multiple infections (MA) declined with time in the original study area Asembo (from 95.9 %-2001 to 87.7 %-2007). In the neighbouring areas, MA was lower in the site where ITNs were introduced in 1998 (Gem 83.7 %) compared to where they were introduced in 2004 (Karemo 96.7 %) in 2007. Overall mean allele count (MAC ~ 2.65) and overall unbiased heterozygosity (H e  ~ 0.77) remained unchanged in 1996, 2001 and 2007 in Asembo and was the same level across the two neighbouring areas in 2007. Overall parasite population differentiation remained low over time and in the three areas at FST < 0.04. Both pairwise and multilocus linkage disequilibrium showed limited to no significant association between alleles in Asembo (1996, 2001 and 2007) and between three areas. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed the P. falciparum high genetic diversity and parasite population resilience on samples collected 10 years apart and in different areas in western Kenya. The results highlight the need for long-term molecular monitoring after implementation and use of combined and intensive prevention and intervention measures in the region.

Mass Relapse Prevention to Reduce Transmission of Plasmodium vivax- A Systematic Review.

Several temperate countries have used mass chemoprevention interventions with medicines of the 8-aminoquinoline class that prevent relapses from Plasmodium vivax before peak transmission to reduce transmission of malaria. The WHO commissioned a systematic review of the literature and evidence synthesis to inform development of recommendations regarding this intervention referred to as "mass relapse prevention" (MRP). Electronic databases were searched, 866 articles screened, and 25 assessed for eligibility after a full-text review. Two nonrandomized studies were included, one from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (391,357 participants) and the second from the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic (∼30,000 participants). The two studies administered a single round of primaquine over 14 days (0.25 mg/kg per day). From 1 to 3 months after the treatment round, the incidence of P. vivax infections was significantly lower in areas that received MRP than those that did not (pooled rate ratio [RR] 0.08, 95% CI 0.07-0.08). At 4 to 12 months after the treatment round, the prevalence of P. vivax infection was significantly lower in MRP villages than non-MRP villages (odds ratio 0.12, 95% CI 0.03-0.52). No severe adverse events were found. The certainty of evidence for all outcomes was very low and no conclusions as to the effectiveness or safety of MRP could be drawn. However, it is not likely that this intervention will be needed in the future as most temperate countries where P. vivax is transmitted are nearing or have already eliminated malaria.

Mass Drug Administration to Reduce Malaria Transmission: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Malaria remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, even in low-transmission settings. With the advent of longer acting, more effective, and well-tolerated antimalarials, there is renewed interest in the efficacy of mass drug administration (MDA) to accelerate to elimination. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the efficacy of MDA to reduce the incidence and prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) and Plasmodium vivax (Pv) infection. From 1,044 articles screened, 14 articles, including 10 randomized controlled trials (RCTs), were identified. Five included data on Pf only; five included Pf and Pv. Two of the Pf studies were conducted in areas of high-moderate transmission, the remainder were in areas of low-very low transmission. In higher transmission areas, MDA reduced incidence of Pf parasitemia (rate ratio = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.40-0.92; moderate certainty) 1 to 3 months after drug administration; no significant effect of MDA on Pf parasitemia prevalence was detected 1 to 3 months post-MDA (risk ratio [RR] = 1.76, 95% CI: 0.58-5.36; low certainty). In lower transmission settings, both incidence and prevalence of Pf parasitemia were reduced 1 to 3 months post-MDA (rate ratio = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.21-0.66; RR = 0.25, 95% CI: 0.15-0.41, respectively). Pv prevalence was reduced 1 to 3 months post-MDA (RR = 0.15, 95% CI: 0.10-0.24); there were no RCTs providing data on incidence of Pv. There was no significant effect of MDA at later time points. MDA may have short-term benefits; however, there was no evidence for longer term impact, although none of the trials assessed prolonged interventions.

Mass Drug Administration: Contextual Factor Considerations.

In designing mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns, it is imperative to consider contextual factors that affect uptake of the intervention, including acceptability, cost, feasibility, and health system considerations, to ensure optimal coverage. We reviewed the literature on contextual factors influencing MDA delivery to provide programs with information to design a successful campaign. From 1,044 articles screened, 37 included contextual factors relevant to participants' values and preferences, drivers of MDA acceptability, health equity concerns, financial and economic aspects, and feasibility barriers; 13 included relevant modeling data. Key findings were abstracted by two reviewers and summarized. No studies directly assessed values or direct health equity concerns with respect to MDA, which represents an evidence gap as unequal distributions of effects and factors that impact participant acceptability and program feasibility must be considered to ensure equitable access. Participant acceptability was the most widely surveyed factor, appearing in 28 of 37 studies; perceived adverse events were a frequently noted cause of nonparticipation, mentioned in 15 studies. Feasibility considerations included when, where, and how drugs will be delivered and how to address pregnant women, as these can all have substantial implications for participation. Mass drug administration costs (∼$1.04 to $19.40 per person per round) are driven primarily by drug prices, but the delivery mechanism can have varying costs as well, and integration with other interventions may provide cost savings. Both programmatic goals and sociopolitical and economic contexts must be carefully considered before embarking on an MDA program to ensure programmatic success.

Development of Systematic Reviews to Inform WHO's Recommendations for Elimination and Prevention of Re-Establishment of Malaria: Methodology.

The basis for an evidence-based recommendation is a well-conducted systematic review that synthesizes the primary literature relevant to the policy or program question of interest. In 2020, the WHO commissioned 10 systematic reviews of potential interventions in elimination or post-elimination settings to summarize their impact on malaria transmission. This paper describes the general methods used to conduct this series of systematic reviews and notes where individual reviews diverged from the common methodology. The paper also presents lessons learned from conducting the systematic reviews to make similar future efforts more efficient, standardized, and streamlined.

Predictors for Uptake of Vaccines Offered during the Second Year of Life: Second Dose of Measles-Containing Vaccine and Meningococcal Serogroup A-Containing Vaccine, Ghana, 2020.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the drivers of coverage for vaccines offered in the second year of life (2YL) is a critical focus area for Ghana's life course approach to vaccination. This study characterizes the predictors of vaccine receipt for 2YL vaccines-meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MACV) and the second dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV2)-in Ghana. METHODS: 1522 children aged 18-35 months were randomly sampled through household surveys in the Greater Accra Region (GAR), Northern Region (NR), and Volta Region (VR). The association between predictors and vaccination status was modeled using logistic regression with backwards elimination procedures. Predictors included child, caregiver, and household characteristics. RESULTS: Coverage was high for infant vaccines (>85%) but lower for 2YL vaccines (ranging from 60.2% for MACV in GAR to 82.8% for MCV2 in VR). Predictors of vaccination status varied by region. Generally, older, first-born children, those living in rural settlements and those who received their recommended infant vaccines by their first birthday were the most likely to have received 2YL vaccines. Uptake was higher among those with older mothers and children whose caregivers were aware of the vaccination schedule. CONCLUSIONS: Improving infant immunization uptake through increased community awareness and targeted strategies, such as parental reminders about vaccination visits, may improve 2YL vaccination coverage.

Epidemiology beyond its limits.

In 1995, journalist Gary Taubes published an article in Science titled "Epidemiology faces its limits," which questioned the utility of nonrandomized epidemiologic research and has since been cited more than 1000 times. He highlighted numerous examples of research topics he viewed as having questionable merit. Studies have since accumulated for these associations. We systematically evaluated current evidence of 53 example associations discussed in the article. Approximately one-quarter of those presented as doubtful are now widely viewed as causal based on current evaluations of the public health consensus. They include associations between alcohol consumption and breast cancer, residential radon exposure and lung cancer, and the use of tanning devices and melanoma. This history should inform current debates about the reproducibility of epidemiologic research results.

The Effect of Text Message Reminders to Health Workers on Quality of Care for Malaria, Pneumonia, and Diarrhea in Malawi: A Cluster-Randomized, Controlled Trial.

The use of mobile technologies in medicine, or mHealth, holds promise to improve health worker (HW) performance, but evidence is mixed. We conducted a cluster-randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effect of text message reminders to HWs in outpatient health facilities (HFs) on quality of care for malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhea in Malawi. After a baseline HF survey (2,360 patients) in January 2015, 105 HFs were randomized to three arms: 1) text messages to HWs on malaria case management; 2) text messages to HWs on malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhea case management (latter two for children < 5 years); and 3) control arm (no messages). Messages were sent beginning April 2015 twice daily for 6 months, followed by an endline HF survey (2,536 patients) in November 2015. An intention-to-treat analysis with difference-in-differences binomial regression modeling was performed. The proportion of patients with uncomplicated malaria managed correctly increased from 42.8% to 59.6% in the control arm, from 43.7% to 55.8% in arm 1 (effect size -4.7%-points, 95% confidence interval (CI): -18.2, 8.9, P = 0.50) and from 30.2% to 50.9% in arm 2 (effect size 3.9%-points, 95% CI: -14.1, 22.0, P = 0.67). Prescription of first-line antibiotics to children < 5 years with clinically defined pneumonia increased in all arms, but decreased in arm 2 (effect size -4.1%-points, 95% CI: -42.0, 33.8, P = 0.83). Prescription of oral rehydration solution to children with diarrhea declined slightly in all arms. We found no significant improvements in malaria, pneumonia, or diarrhea treatment after HW reminders, illustrating the importance of rigorously testing new interventions before adoption.

Effect of Cardiorespiratory Fitness on Academic Achievement is Stronger in High-SES Elementary Schools Compared to Low.

BACKGROUND: Academic achievement is influenced by factors at the student, school, and community levels. We estimated the effect of cardiorespiratory fitness performance on academic performance at the school level in Georgia elementary schools and examined effect modification by sociodemographic factors. METHODS: This study is a repeat cross-sectional analysis of Georgia elementary schools between 2011 and 2014 (approximately 1138 schools per year). Multivariable beta regression estimated the effect of the proportion of 4th and 5th graders meeting cardiorespiratory fitness standards on the proportion of 5th graders passing standardized tests for Reading, English and Language Arts, Mathematics, Science, and Social Studies and considered potential interaction by school-level socioeconomic status (SES), racial composition, and urbanity. RESULTS: There was a 0.15 higher estimated odds (OR: 1.15 (1.09, 1.22)) of passing the mathematics standardized test for every 10-percentage-point increase in school-level cardiorespiratory fitness among high-SES schools and 0.04 higher odds (OR: 1.04 (1.02, 1.05)) for low-SES schools. This pattern was similar for other academic subjects. No effect modification by racial composition or urbanity was observed for any academic subject. CONCLUSIONS: Promoting physical fitness may be effective in improving academic performance among high-SES schools, but additional strategies may be needed among lower-SES schools.

Quality of Case Management for Pneumonia and Diarrhea Among Children Seen at Health Facilities in Southern Malawi.

Pneumonia and diarrhea are leading causes of child deaths in Malawi. Guidelines to manage childhood illnesses in resource-poor settings exist, but studies have reported low health-care worker (HCW) adherence to guidelines. We conducted a health facility survey from January to March 2015 to assess HCW management of pneumonia and diarrhea in children < 5 years of age in southern Malawi, and to determine factors associated with case management quality. Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression models examined patient, HCW, and health facility factors associated with recommended pneumonia and diarrhea management, using Malawi's national guidelines as the gold standard. Of 694 surveyed children 2-59 months of age at 95 health facilities, 132 (19.0%) met survey criteria for pneumonia; HCWs gave recommended antibiotic treatment to 90 (68.2%). Of 723 children < 5 years of age, 222 (30.7%) had uncomplicated diarrhea; HCWs provided recommended treatment to 94 (42.3%). In multivariable analyses, caregivers' spontaneous report of children's symptoms was associated with recommended treatment of both pneumonia (odds ratio [OR]: 2.8, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-6.8, P = 0.023) and diarrhea (OR: 24.2, 95% CI: 6.0-97.0, P < 0001). Malaria diagnosis was negatively associated with recommended treatment (OR for pneumonia: 0.5, 95% CI: 0.2-1.0, P = 0.046; OR for diarrhea: 0.3, 95% CI: 0.1-0.6, P = 0.003). To improve quality of care, children should be assessed systematically, even when malaria is suspected. Renewed efforts to invigorate such a systematic approach, including HCW training, regular follow-up supervision, and monitoring HCW performance, are needed in Malawi.

Home visits to assess the reliability of caregiver-reported use of insecticide-treated bednets by children in Machinga District, Malawi.

A malaria cohort study was conducted among young children in Machinga District, Malawi, following distribution of insecticide-treated bednets (ITNs) in May 2012. To assess ITN use, two independently sampled subsets of children (211 during survey 1 [December 2012-January 2013] and 325 during survey 2 [September-October 2013]) were randomly selected to compare the proportions of positive and negative agreement between caregiver verbal reports at monthly interviews with visual observation of the ITN at home visits. Caregiver-reported ITN use was consistently high during both surveys (98.1% and 96.0%, respectively; P = 0.17). Home visit-based ITN use fell significantly (P < 0.001) from survey 1 (98.6%) to survey 2 (88.6%). The proportions of positive agreement between caregiver report and home visit in the first and second surveys were 98.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 97.6-99.8%) and 93.3% (95% CI 91.2-95.3%), respectively. The proportions of negative agreement in the first and second surveys were 28.6% (95% CI 0-75.0%) and 20.0% (95% CI 0.1-35.0%), respectively. ITN use by children was high in Machinga District, and caregiver reports and home visits with visual confirmation of the net demonstrated a high level of agreement for use of ITNs, but a low level of agreement when ITNs were not used.