Evaluation of a Machine Learning-Based Prognostic Model for Unrelated Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Donor Selection.

The survival of patients undergoing hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) from unrelated donors for acute leukemia exhibits considerable variation, even after stringent genetic matching. To improve the donor selection process, we attempted to create an algorithm to quantify the likelihood of survival to 5 years after unrelated donor HCT for acute leukemia, based on the clinical characteristics of the donor selected. All standard clinical variables were included in the model, which also included average leukocyte telomere length of the donor based on its association with recipient survival in severe aplastic anemia, and links to multiple malignancies. We developed a multivariate classifier that assigned a Preferred or NotPreferred label to each prospective donor based on the survival of the recipient. In a previous analysis using a resampling method, recipients with donors labeled Preferred experienced clinically compelling better survival compared with those labeled NotPreferred by the test. However, in a pivotal validation study in an independent cohort of 522 patients, the overall survival of the Preferred and NotPreferred donor groups was not significantly different. Although machine learning approaches have successfully modeled other biological phenomena and have led to accurate predictive models, our attempt to predict HCT outcomes after unrelated donor transplantation was not successful.

No association between donor telomere length and outcomes after allogeneic unrelated hematopoietic cell transplant in patients with acute leukemia.

Recent studies suggest improved survival in patients with severe aplastic anemia receiving hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) from unrelated donors with longer telomeres. Here, we tested whether this effect is generalizable to patients with acute leukemia. From the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR®) database, we identified 1097 patients who received 8/8 HLA-matched unrelated HCT for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) or acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) between 2004 and 2012 with myeloablative conditioning, and had pre-HCT blood sample from the donor in CIBMTR repository. The median age at HCT for recipients was 40 years (range ≤1-68), and 32 years for donors (range = 18-61). We used qPCR for relative telomere length (RTL) measurement, and Cox proportional hazard models for statistical analyses. In a discovery cohort of 300 patients, longer donor RTL (>25th percentile) was associated with reduced risks of relapse (HR = 0.62, p = 0.05) and acute graft-versus-host disease II-IV (HR = 0.68, p = 0.05), and possibly with a higher probability of neutrophil engraftment (HR = 1.3, p = 0.06). However, these results did not replicate in two validation cohorts of 297 and 488 recipients. There was one exception; a higher probability of neutrophil engraftment was observed in one validation cohort (HR = 1.24, p = 0.05). In a combined analysis of the three cohorts, no statistically significant associations (all p > 0.1) were found between donor RTL and any outcomes.