Smoking-related cancer death among men and women in an ageing society (China 2020-2040): a population-based modelling study.

BACKGROUND: China is experiencing a postpeak smoking epidemic with accelerating population ageing. Understanding the impacts of these factors on the future cancer burden has widespread implications. METHODS: We developed predictive models to estimate smoking-related cancer deaths among men and women aged ≥35 years in China during 2020-2040. Data sources for model parameters included the United Nations World Population Prospects, China Death Surveillance Database, national adult tobacco surveys and the largest national survey of smoking and all causes of death to date. The main assumptions included stable sex-specific and age-specific cancer mortality rates and carcinogenic risks of smoking over time. RESULTS: In a base-case scenario of continuing trends in current smoking prevalence (men: 57.4%-50.5%; women: 2.6%-2.1% during 2002-2018), the smoking-related cancer mortality rate with population ageing during 2020-2040 would rise by 44.0% (from 337.2/100 000 to 485.6/100 000) among men and 52.8% (from 157.3/100 000 to 240.4/100 000) among women; over 20 years, there would be 8.6 million excess deaths (0.5 million more considering former smoking), and a total of 117.3 million smoking-attributable years of life lost (110.3 million (94.0%) in men; 54.1 million (46.1%) in working-age (35-64 years) adults). An inflection point may occur in 2030 if smoking prevalence were reduced to 20% (Healthy China 2030 goal), and 1.4 million deaths would be averted relative to the base-case scenario if the trend were maintained through 2040. CONCLUSIONS: Coordinated efforts are urgently needed to curtail a rising tide of cancer deaths in China, with intensified tobacco control being key.

[Patterns of Perioperative Blood Transfusion in Patients with Blood Loss during Major Cardiac Surgery].

Objective To investigate the patterns of perioperative blood transfusion in patients with blood loss during major cardiac surgery,so as to provide data reference for rational and standardized blood use.Methods The adult patients(aged 18 years or above)who underwent vascular surgery,coronary artery bypass grafting surgery,heart valve surgery or surgery for congenital heart disease in a national multicenter(four large hospitals)survey in China,2015-2016 were included in this study.We described their baseline characteristics,postoperative outcomes,and in particular,bleeding and patterns of perioperative blood transfusion(autologous and allogeneic,the latter including red blood cells,plasma,and platelet,or a combination of these components).Results Autologous blood transfusion in operation accounted for the highest proportion(58.84%)in patients undergoing heart valve surgery.The patients undergoing vascular surgery had the largest autologous blood transfusion volume(722 ml)and the highest intraoperative transfusion proportion of allogeneic blood(53.28%),especially that of platelet(39.34%).Compared with the transfusion of red blood cells,the transfusion of other blood components showed concentrated time distribution,and the proportion of plasma transfusion was the highest one day post operation.With the increase in bleeding volume,combined transfusion presented increased proportion and became the dominant transfusion pattern.Conclusions The blood transfusion patterns varied significantly depending on different types of cardiac surgery,different perioperative stages,and different bleeding volumes.It is necessary to formulate the targeted transfusion practice scheme on the basis of understanding the current situation,so as to make better use of blood resources and improve the safety of transfusion.

Population-based projections of blood supply and demand, China, 2017-2036.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the long-term effect of the changing demography in China on blood supply and demand. METHODS: We developed a predictive model to estimate blood supply and demand during 2017-2036 in mainland China and in 31 province-level regions. Model parameters were obtained from World Population Prospects, China statistical yearbook 2016, China's report on blood safety and records from a large tertiary hospital. Our main assumptions were stable age-specific per capita blood supply and demand over time. FINDINGS: We estimated that the change in demographic structure between 2016 (baseline year) and 2036 would result in a 16.0% decrease in blood supply (from 43.2 million units of 200 mL to 36.3 million units) and a 33.1% increase in demand (from 43.2 million units to 57.5 million units). In 2036, there would be an estimated shortage of 21.2 million units. An annual increase in supply between 0.9% and 1.8% is required to maintain a balance in blood supply and demand. This increase is not enough for every region as regional differences will increase, e.g. a blood demand/supply ratio ≥ 1.45 by 2036 is predicted in regions with large populations older than 65 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that increasing donations by 4.0% annually by people aged 18-34 years or decreasing the overall blood discard rate from 5.0% to 2.0% would not offset but help reduce the blood shortage. CONCLUSION: Multidimensional strategies and tailored, coordinated actions are needed to deal with growing pressures on blood services because of China's ageing population.

Noninvasive optical monitoring of cerebral hemodynamics in a preclinical model of neonatal intraventricular hemorrhage.

Intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) is a common complication in premature infants and is associated with white matter injury and long-term neurodevelopmental disabilities. Standard diagnostic tools such as cranial ultrasound and MRI are widely used in both preclinical drug development and clinical practice to detect IVH. However, these methods only provide endpoint assessments of blood accumulation and lack real-time information about dynamic changes in ventricular blood flow. This limitation could potentially result in missed opportunities to advance drug candidates that may have protective effects against IVH. In this pilot study, we aimed to develop a noninvasive optical approach using diffuse correlation spectroscopy (DCS) to monitor real-time hemodynamic changes associated with hemorrhagic and sub-hemorrhagic events in a preclinical rabbit model of IVH. DCS measurements were conducted during the experimental induction of IVH, and results were compared with ultrasound and histological analysis to validate findings. Significant changes in hemodynamics were detected in all animals subjected to IVH-inducing procedures, including those that did not show clear positive results on ultrasound. The study revealed progressively elevated coefficients of variation in blood flow, particularly driven by increased oscillations within the 0.05-0.1 Hz frequency band. These hemodynamic changes were more pronounced in animals that developed IVH, as confirmed by ultrasound. Our findings suggest that real-time optical monitoring with DCS can provide critical insights into pathological blood flow changes, offering a more sensitive and informative tool for evaluating potential therapeutics in the context of IVH.

Label free, capillary-scale blood flow mapping in vivo reveals that low intensity focused ultrasound evokes persistent dilation in cortical microvasculature.

Non-invasive, low intensity focused ultrasound (FUS) is an emerging neuromodulation technique that offers the potential for precision, personalized therapy. An increasing body of research has identified mechanosensitive ion channels that can be modulated by FUS and support acute electrical activity in neurons. However, neuromodulatory effects that persist from hours to days have also been reported. The brain's ability to provide targeted blood flow to electrically active regions involve a multitude of non-neuronal cell types and signaling pathways in the cerebral vasculature; an open question is whether persistent effects can be attributed, at least partly, to vascular mechanisms. Using a novel in vivo optical approach, we found that microvascular responses, unlike larger vessels which prior investigations have explored, exhibit persistent dilation following sonication without the use of microbubbles. This finding and approach offers a heretofore unseen aspect of the effects of FUS in vivo and indicate that concurrent changes in neurovascular function may partially underly persistent neuromodulatory effects.

Spatial consistency of co-exposure to air and surface water pollution and cancer in China.

Humans can be exposed to multiple pollutants in the air and surface water. These environments are non-static, trans-boundary and correlated, creating a complex network, and significant challenges for research on environmental hazards, especially in real-world cancer research. This article reports on a large study (377 million people in 30 provinces of China) that evaluated the combined impact of air and surface water pollution on cancer. We formulate a spatial evaluation system and a common grading scale for co-pollution measurement, and validate assumptions that air and surface water environments are spatially connected and that cancers of different types tend to cluster in areas where these environments are poorer. We observe "dose-response" relationships in both the number of affected cancer types and the cancer incidence with an increase in degree of co-pollution. We estimate that 62,847 (7.4%) new cases of cancer registered in China in 2016 were attributable to air and surface water pollution, and the majority (69.7%) of these excess cases occurred in areas with the highest level of co-pollution. The findings clearly show that the environment cannot be considered as a set of separate entities. They also support the development of policies for cooperative environmental governance and disease prevention.

Network prediction of surgical complication clusters: a prospective multicenter cohort study.

Complicated relationships exist in both occurrence and progression of surgical complications, which are difficult to account for using a separate quantitative method such as prediction or grading. Data of 51,030 surgical inpatients were collected from four academic/teaching hospitals in a prospective cohort study in China. The relationship between preoperative factors, 22 common complications, and death was analyzed. With input from 54 senior clinicians and following a Bayesian network approach, a complication grading, cluster-visualization, and prediction (GCP) system was designed to model pathways between grades of complication and preoperative risk factor clusters. In the GCP system, there were 11 nodes representing six grades of complication and five preoperative risk factor clusters, and 32 arcs representing a direct association. Several critical targets were pinpointed on the pathway. Malnourished status was a fundamental cause widely associated (7/32 arcs) with other risk factor clusters and complications. American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score ⩾3 was directly dependent on all other risk factor clusters and influenced all severe complications. Grade III complications (mainly pneumonia) were directly dependent on 4/5 risk factor clusters and affected all other grades of complication. Irrespective of grade, complication occurrence was more likely to increase the risk of other grades of complication than risk factor clusters.

Construction and evaluation of networks among multiple postoperative complications.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Postoperative complications confer an increased risk of reoperation, prolonged length of hospital stay, and increased mortality. Many studies have attempted to identify the complex associations among complications to preemptively interrupt their progression, but few studies have looked at complications as a whole to reveal and quantify their possible trajectories of progression. The main objective of this study was to construct and quantify the association network among multiple postoperative complications from a comprehensive perspective to elucidate the possible evolution trajectories. METHODS: In this study, a Bayesian network model was proposed to analyze the associations among 15 complications. Prior evidence and score-based hill-climbing algorithms were used to build the structure. The severity of complications was graded according to their connection to death, with the association between them quantified using conditional probabilities. The data of surgical inpatients used in this study were collected from four regionally representative academic/teaching hospitals in a prospective cohort study in China. RESULTS: In the network obtained, 15 nodes represented complications or death, and 35 arcs with arrows represented the directly dependent relationship between them. With three grades classified on that basis, the correlation coefficients of complications within grades increased with increased grade, ranging from -0.11 to -0.06, 0.16, and 0.21 to 0.4 in grade 1 to grade 3, respectively. Moreover, the probability of each complication in the network increased with the occurrence of any other complication, even mild complications. Most seriously, once cardiac arrest requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation occurs, the probability of death will be up to 88.1%. CONCLUSIONS: The present evolving network can facilitate the identification of strong associations among specific complications and provides a basis for the development of targeted measures to prevent further deterioration in high-risk patients.

Prediction of complications associated with general surgery using a Bayesian network.

BACKGROUND: Numerous attempts have been made to identify risk factors for surgery complications, but few studies have identified accurate methods of predicting complex outcomes involving multiple complications. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study of general surgical inpatients who attended 4 regionally representative hospitals in China from January to June 2015 and January to June 2016. The risk factors were identified using logistic regression. A Bayesian network model, consisting of directed arcs and nodes, was used to analyze the relationships between risk factors and complications. Probability ratios for complications for a given node state relative to the baseline probability were calculated to quantify the potential effects of risk factors on complications or of complications on other complications. RESULTS: We recruited 19,223 participants and identified 21 nodes, representing 9 risk factors and 12 complications, and 55 direct relationships between these. Respiratory failure was at the center of the network, directly affected by 5 risk factors, and directly affected 7 complications. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation and sepsis or septic shock also directly affected death. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the ability of the network to predict complications was >0.7. Notably, the probability of other severe complications or death significantly increased when a severe complication occurred. Most importantly, there was a 141-fold higher risk of death when cardiopulmonary resuscitation was required. CONCLUSION: We have created a Bayesian network that displays how risk factors affect complications and their interrelationships and permits the accurate prediction of complications and the creation of appropriate preventive guidelines.

Predictions of mortality related to four major cancers in China, 2020 to 2030.

BACKGROUND: Cancer has become a global health problem, and assessments of cancer mortality are important for effective public health policy-making and adequate resource allocation. In this study, we aimed to predict the mortality rates and numbers of deaths related to four common cancers (lung, liver, stomach, and esophagus) in China from 2020 to 2030 and to estimate the corresponding cancer burden caused by population aging and tobacco smoking. METHODS: Cancer mortality data (2004-2017) were extracted from China's death surveillance datasets, and China's population figures (2020-2030) were obtained from the United Nations population projections. Smoking prevalence data were retrieved from a World Health Organization global report, and relative risks of smoking and cancers were derived from large-scale Asian studies. We predicted the deaths related to the four major cancers and age-standardized mortality rates using joinpoint regression and linear regression models. The tobacco smoking-related burden of these four major cancers was estimated using the population attributable fraction. RESULTS: Unlike lung cancer mortality which was predicted to continue to increase, the age-standardized mortality rates for digestive cancers (liver, stomach, and esophageal cancers) are predicted to decline over the next decade. The number of deaths caused by the four major cancers is predicted to increase from 1,490,304 in 2020 to 1,823,960 in 2030. The age-specific mortality rates of the four major cancers are predicted to increase with age after 40-45 years, peaking in the age groups of 80-84 and ≥85 years. In 2030, the combined number of deaths from the four examined cancers among adults aged ≥65 years is predicted to be 1,167,153, accounting for 64% of all deaths from these cancers. Tobacco smoking is predicted to contribute to nearly 29% of deaths from these cancers, corresponding to 527,577 deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The overall trend in the combined total mortality from four major cancers is predicted to decline over the next decade; however, the corresponding death toll is expected to surge, in the context of China's population aging and high smoking prevalence. These estimates provide data-driven evidence for China to implement effective cancer control measures in the future.

Fatigue correlates with sleep disturbances in Parkinson disease.

BACKGROUND: Many Parkinson disease (PD) patients complain about chronic fatigue and sleep disturbances during the night. The objective of this study is to determine the relationship between fatigue and sleep disturbances by using polysomnography (PSG) in PD patients. METHODS: Two hundred and thirty-two PD patients (152 with mild fatigue and 80 with severe fatigue) were recruited in this study. Demographic information and clinical symptoms were collected. Fatigue severity scale (FSS) was applied to evaluate the severity of fatigue, and PSG was conducted in all PD patients. FSS ≥4 was defined as severe fatigue, and FSS <4 was defined as mild fatigue. Multivariate logistic regression and linear regression models were used to investigate the associations between fatigue and sleep disturbances. RESULTS: Patients with severe fatigue tended to have a longer duration of disease, higher Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale score, more advanced Hoehn and Yahr stage, higher daily levodopa equivalent dose, worse depression, anxiety, and higher daytime sleepiness score. In addition, they had lower percentage of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep (P = 0.009) and were more likely to have REM sleep behavior disorder (RBD) (P = 0.018). Multivariate logistic regression analyses found that the presence of RBD and proportion of REM sleep were the independent predictors for fatigue. After the adjustment of age, sex, duration, body mass index, severity of disease, scores of Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression, Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale, and other sleep disorders, proportion of REM sleep and degree of REM sleep without atonia in patients with PD were still associated with FSS score. CONCLUSION: Considering the association between fatigue, RBD, and the altered sleep architecture, fatigue is a special subtype in PD and more studies should be focused on this debilitating symptom.