RESUMO
The 5-year Ocean Regulation of Climate by Heat and Carbon Sequestration and Transports (ORCHESTRA) programme and its 1-year extension ENCORE (ENCORE is the National Capability ORCHESTRA Extension) was an approximately 11-million-pound programme involving seven UK research centres that finished in March 2022. The project sought to radically improve our ability to measure, understand and predict the exchange, storage and export of heat and carbon by the Southern Ocean. It achieved this through a series of milestone observational campaigns in combination with model development and analysis. Twelve cruises in the Weddell Sea and South Atlantic were undertaken, along with mooring, glider and profiler deployments and aircraft missions, all contributing to measurements of internal ocean and air-sea heat and carbon fluxes. Numerous forward and adjoint numerical experiments were developed and supported by the analysis of coupled climate models. The programme has resulted in over 100 peer-reviewed publications to date as well as significant impacts on climate assessments and policy and science coordination groups. Here, we summarize the research highlights of the programme and assess the progress achieved by ORCHESTRA/ENCORE and the questions it raises for the future. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.
RESUMO
The ocean plays an essential role in determining aspects of the climate through its influence on coupled processes involving the atmosphere, cyrosphere and biogeochemistry, including budgets of heat and carbon dioxide and sea-level rise. Here, the key developments in ocean modelling over the past 20 years are reviewed and the prospects for the next 20 years are outlined, considering a hierarchy of idealized, conceptual and realistic modelling frameworks. It is emphasized that any long-term modelling strategy needs to be underpinned and complemented by fundamental theoretical and observational research activities. The need to be aware of the societal and technological drivers that will shape future research directions is also articulated.