[Driving Forces and Mitigation Potential of CO2 Emissions for Ship Transportation in Guangdong Province, China].

Ships are important sources of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Guangdong Province. The study of historical evolutions, drivers, and projected pathways of CO2 emissions can provide scientific support for the development of carbon peaking and carbon neutral strategies in Guangdong Province. The emission factor method, log-average index (LMDI) method, and scenario analysis method were adopted to estimate CO2 emissions, identify the drivers, and explore the mitigation potential from ships in Guangdong Province, separately. The results showed that:① CO2 emissions from ships in Guangdong Province increased from 3.319 4 million tons to 6.392 9 million tons from 2006 to 2020, with dry bulk carriers and container ships being the main ship types causing the increase in emissions. ② The positive drivers of CO2 emissions from ships in Guangdong Province from 2006 to 2020 were transport intensity (51%) and economic factors (49%), and the negative drivers were energy intensity (93%) and cargo class structure (7%). ③ Carbon peaking would not be reached by 2030 if Guangdong Province maintains the current policy (baseline scenario) for ship transportation. ④ Simultaneous optimization of the energy structure and promotion of the energy intensity (energy-efficient and low-carbon scenario) had a 56.51% potential to reduce CO2 emissions from ships compared to the baseline scenario. This can provide scientific support for Guangdong Province to develop a carbon peaking and carbon neutral control strategy for the shipping industry.