Validation of a novel point-of-care test for alanine aminotransferase measurement: A pilot cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) measurement is essential for evaluation of liver disease. We validated a novel rapid point-of-care (POC) test for ALT1 against laboratory ALT. METHODS: Stored plasma samples from adults with chronic liver disease (Test cohort n = 240; Validation cohort n = 491) were analysed using the BioPoint® antigen immunoassay POC ALT1 lateral flow test, which provides quantitative ALT results (Axxin handheld reader) or semi-quantitative results (visual read, cut off 40 IU/ml). The accuracy of POC ALT1 to detect ALT > 40 IU/L was determined by ROC analysis. In patients with chronic hepatitis B, treatment eligibility (EASL criteria) was determined using POC ALT1 and compared to laboratory ALT. RESULTS: POC ALT1 test had good accuracy for laboratory ALT > 40 IU/L: AUROC 0.93 (95% CI: 0.89-0.96) in the Test cohort and AUROC 0.92 (95% CI: 0.88-0.95) in the Validation cohort. POC ALT1 cut off of 0.8 for ALT > 40 IU/L maximised sensitivity (97%) and specificity (71%) in the Test cohort (42% laboratory ALT > 40 IU/L) and yielded PPV 84% and NPV 91% in the Validation cohort (19% laboratory ALT > 40 IU/L). Semi-quantitative POC ALT1 had good accuracy for laboratory ALT in the Validation cohort (AUROC 0.85, 95% CI: 0.81-0.99; sensitivity 77% and specificity 93%). Combined with HBV DNA and transient elastography, both quantitative and semi-quantitative POC ALT1 tests had good accuracy for excluding hepatitis B treatment needs (sensitivity 96%, specificity 78% and NPV 99%). CONCLUSION: The POC ALT1 test had good accuracy for elevated ALT levels and for determining treatment eligibility among people with chronic hepatitis B.

Patient-reported outcomes of the Treatment and Prevention Study: A real-world community-based trial of direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C among people who inject drugs.

The impact of hepatitis C cure with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) on patient-reported outcomes (PROs) in community settings remains unclear. We aimed to assess changes in PROs over time and whether treatment was associated with sustained improved PROs in a cohort of people who inject drugs. This study is a sub-analysis of the Treatment and Prevention Study, a nurse-led trial where people who inject drugs and their injecting partners were recruited in a community setting, in Melbourne, Australia. Three participant groups were characterized: treatment, untreated and non-viremic (hepatitis C RNA negative at screening). PROs included assessment of health-related quality of life using the Short Form-8 (SF-8) Survey and life satisfaction using Personal Wellbeing Index (PWI). PROs were measured at baseline and every 12 weeks until week 84. Generalized estimating equations were used to measure whether treatment was associated with longitudinal PRO change. A total of 215 participants were included in this analysis. PWI scores were significantly higher at week 12 for both treatment group (p = 0.0309) and non-viremic group (p = 0.0437) compared to baseline. However, treatment was not associated with longitudinal change in PRO scores. In conclusion, we found DAA treatment did not significantly improve PRO scores compared to those not receiving treatment and without hepatitis C. The measures used in this study may not be sensitive enough to capture the hepatitis C specific improvements in quality of life that treatment affords or factors other than treatment may be influencing quality of life scores in this cohort.

Adherence in chronic hepatitis B: associations between medication possession ratio and adverse viral outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is effective and can substantially reduce the risk of progressive liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma but is often administered for an indefinite duration. Adherence has been shown in clinical trials to maximize the benefit of therapy and prevent the development of resistance, however the optimal threshold for predicting clinical outcomes has not been identified. The aim of this study was to analyse adherence using the medication possession ration (MPR) and its relation to virological outcomes in a large multi-centre hospital outpatient population, and guide development of an evidence-based threshold for optimal adherence. METHODS: Pharmacy and pathology records of patients dispensed CHB antiviral therapy from 4 major hospitals in Melbourne between 2010 and 2013 were extracted and analysed to determine their MPR and identify instances of unfavourable viral outcomes. Viral outcomes were classified categorically, with unfavourable outcomes including HBV DNA remaining detectable after 2 years treatment or experiencing viral breakthrough. The association between MPR and unfavourable outcomes was assessed according to various thresholds using ROC analysis and time-to-event regression. RESULTS: Six hundred forty-two individuals were included in the analysis. Median age was 46.6 years, 68% were male, 77% were born in Asia, and the median time on treatment was 27.5 months. The majority had favourable viral outcomes (91.06%), with most having undetectable HBV DNA at the end of the study period. The most common unfavourable outcome was a rise of < 1 log in HBV DNA (6.54% of the total), while 2.49% of participants experienced viral breakthrough. Adherence was linearly associated with favourable outcomes, with increasing risk of virological breakthrough as MPR fell. Decreasing the value of MPR, at which a cut-point was taken, was associated with a progressively larger reduction in the rate of unfavourable event; from a 60% reduction under a cut-point of 1.00 to a 79% reduction when the MPR cut-point was set at 0.8. CONCLUSION: Lower adherence as measured using the MPR was strongly associated with unfavourable therapeutic outcomes, including virological failure. Optimising adherence is therefore important for preventing viral rebound and potential complications such as antiviral resistance. The evidence of dose-response highlights the need for nuanced interventions.

A Randomized Controlled Trial Comparing a Medial Stabilized Total Knee Prosthesis to a Cruciate Retaining and Posterior Stabilized Design: A Report of the Clinical and Functional Outcomes Following Total Knee Replacement.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this randomized controlled trial was to compare the performance of 3 total knee joint replacement (TKJR) designs 6 months after the surgery. METHODS: Patients were recruited between March 2015 and March 2018. Patients with osteoarthritis consented for TKJR were randomly allocated to a medial stabilized (MS), cruciate retaining (CR), or posterior stabilized (PS) design. Primary outcome measures were self-reported improvement in pain and function 6 months after TKJR, using the Oxford Knee Score. Secondary outcome measures were the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index, Veterans RAND 12-item Health Survey, Knee Society Score 2011, Timed Up and Go test, and Six-Minute Walk Test. Twelve-month outcomes were also measured. RESULTS: Ninety participants enrolled, 83 were randomized: PS (n = 26), CR (n = 28), and MS (n = 29) designs. One case withdrew before surgery: planned use of non-study implant; 7 did not complete all outcome measures. No 6-month between-group difference was observed for the primary outcome. A 6-month difference was observed in Knee Society Score 2011 Satisfaction: MS favored over CR and PS. Clinically meaningful 12-month differences in Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index Pain, Function, and Global Subscales were observed: MS favored over CR. Twelve-month differences occurred in Veterans RAND 12-item Health Survey mental well-being, favoring MS and PS over CR. CONCLUSION: MS prosthesis can be expected to yield similar clinical and functional outcomes to PS and CR designs 6 months after TKJR, and patients were more satisfied with their outcome. Compared with CR, patients with MS prosthesis also reported superior pain, function, and quality-of-life outcomes at 12 months.

Common and Low Frequency Variants in MERTK Are Independently Associated with Multiple Sclerosis Susceptibility with Discordant Association Dependent upon HLA-DRB1*15:01 Status.

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory demyelinating disease of the central nervous system. The risk of developing MS is strongly influenced by genetic predisposition, and over 100 loci have been established as associated with susceptibility. However, the biologically relevant variants underlying disease risk have not been defined for the vast majority of these loci, limiting the power of these genetic studies to define new avenues of research for the development of MS therapeutics. It is therefore crucial that candidate MS susceptibility loci are carefully investigated to identify the biological mechanism linking genetic polymorphism at a given gene to the increased chance of developing MS. MERTK has been established as an MS susceptibility gene and is part of a family of receptor tyrosine kinases known to be involved in the pathogenesis of demyelinating disease. In this study we have refined the association of MERTK with MS risk to independent signals from both common and low frequency variants. One of the associated variants was also found to be linked with increased expression of MERTK in monocytes and higher expression of MERTK was associated with either increased or decreased risk of developing MS, dependent upon HLA-DRB1*15:01 status. This discordant association potentially extended beyond MS susceptibility to alterations in disease course in established MS. This study provides clear evidence that distinct polymorphisms within MERTK are associated with MS susceptibility, one of which has the potential to alter MERTK transcription, which in turn can alter both susceptibility and disease course in MS patients.

Greater sensitivity to multiple sclerosis disability worsening and progression events using a roving versus a fixed reference value in a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) progression occurring after a fixed-study entry baseline is a common measure of disability increase in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) studies but may not detect all disability progression events, especially those unrelated to overt relapses. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate possible measures of disability progression unrelated to relapse using EDSS data over ≈5.5 years from the Tysabri® Observational Program (TOP). METHODS: TOP is an ongoing, prospective, open-label study in RRMS patients receiving intravenous 300 mg natalizumab every 4 weeks. Measures of increasing disability were assessed using as a reference either study baseline score or a "roving" system that resets the reference score after ⩾24- or ⩾48-week confirmation of a new score. RESULTS: This analysis included 5562 patients. Approximately 70% more EDSS progression events unrelated to relapse and 50% more EDSS worsening events overall were detected with a roving reference score (cumulative probability: 17.6% and 29.7%, respectively) than with a fixed reference baseline score (cumulative probability: 10.1% and 20.3%, respectively). CONCLUSION: In this long-term observational RRMS dataset, a roving EDSS reference value was more efficient than a study baseline EDSS reference in detecting progression/worsening events unrelated to relapses and thus the transition to secondary progressive disease.

Hepatitis C Virus Reinfection and Spontaneous Clearance of Reinfection--the InC3 Study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to characterize the natural history of hepatitis C virus (HCV) reinfection and spontaneous clearance following reinfection (reclearance), including predictors of HCV reclearance. METHODS: Data were synthesized from the 9 prospective cohorts of the International Collaboration of Incident Human Immunodeficiency Virus and HCV in Injecting Cohorts study, which evaluated HCV infection outcomes among people who inject drugs. Participants with primary HCV infection were classified as having achieved viral suppression if they had negative results of at least 1 subsequent HCV RNA test. Those with positive results of an HCV RNA test following viral suppression were investigated for reinfection. Viral sequence analysis was used to identify reinfection (defined as detection of heterologous virus with no subsequent detection of the original viral strain). RESULTS: Among 591 participants with acute primary HCV infection, 118 were investigated for reinfection. Twenty-eight participants were reinfected (12.3 cases/100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 8.5-17.8). Peak HCV RNA level was lower during reinfection than primary infection (P = .011). The proportion of individuals with reclearance 6 months after reinfection was 52% (95% CI, 33%-73%). After adjustment for study site, females with the IFNL4 (formerly IFNL3 and IL28B) rs12979860 CC genotype detected were more likely to have reclearance (hazard ratio, 4.16; 95% CI, 1.24-13.94; P = .021). CONCLUSIONS: Sex and IFNL4 genotype are associated with spontaneous clearance after reinfection.

Comparative effectiveness of glatiramer acetate and interferon beta formulations in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The results of head-to-head comparisons of injectable immunomodulators (interferon ß, glatiramer acetate) have been inconclusive and a comprehensive analysis of their effectiveness is needed. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to compare, in a real-world setting, relapse and disability outcomes among patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) treated with injectable immunomodulators. METHODS: Pairwise analysis of the international MSBase registry data was conducted using propensity-score matching. The four injectable immunomodulators were compared in six head-to-head analyses of relapse and disability outcomes using paired mixed models or frailty proportional hazards models adjusted for magnetic resonance imaging variables. Sensitivity and power analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Of the 3326 included patients, 345-1199 patients per therapy were matched (median pairwise-censored follow-up was 3.7 years). Propensity matching eliminated >95% of the identified indication bias. Slightly lower relapse incidence was found among patients treated with glatiramer acetate or subcutaneous interferon ß-1a relative to intramuscular interferon ß-1a and interferon ß-1b (p≤0.001). No differences in 12-month confirmed progression of disability were observed. CONCLUSION: Small but statistically significant differences in relapse outcomes exist among the injectable immunomodulators. MSBase is sufficiently powered to identify these differences and reflects practice in tertiary MS centres. While the present study controlled indication, selection and attrition bias, centre-dependent variance in data quality was likely.

Sex as a determinant of relapse incidence and progressive course of multiple sclerosis.

The aim of this work was to evaluate sex differences in the incidence of multiple sclerosis relapses; assess the relationship between sex and primary progressive disease course; and compare effects of age and disease duration on relapse incidence. Annualized relapse rates were calculated using the MSBase registry. Patients with incomplete data or <1 year of follow-up were excluded. Patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis were only included in the sex ratio analysis. Relapse incidences over 40 years of multiple sclerosis or 70 years of age were compared between females and males with Andersen-Gill and Tweedie models. Female-to-male ratios stratified by annual relapse count were evaluated across disease duration and patient age and compared between relapse-onset and primary progressive multiple sclerosis. The study cohort consisted of 11 570 eligible patients with relapse-onset and 881 patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Among the relapse-onset patients (82 552 patient-years), 48,362 relapses were recorded. Relapse frequency was 17.7% higher in females compared with males. Within the initial 5 years, the female-to-male ratio increased from 2.3:1 to 3.3:1 in patients with 0 versus ≥4 relapses per year, respectively. The magnitude of this sex effect increased at longer disease duration and older age (P < 10(-12)). However, the female-to-male ratio in patients with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis and zero relapses in any given year was double that of the patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Patient age was a more important determinant of decline in relapse incidence than disease duration (P < 10(-12)). Females are predisposed to higher relapse activity than males. However, this difference does not explain the markedly lower female-to-male sex ratio in primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Decline in relapse activity over time is more closely related to patient age than disease duration.

Same-visit hepatitis C testing and treatment to accelerate cure among people who inject drugs (the QuickStart Study): a cluster randomised cross-over trial protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Despite universal access to government-funded direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in 2016, the rate of hepatitis C treatment uptake in Australia has declined substantially. Most hepatitis C is related to injecting drug use; reducing the hepatitis C burden among people who inject drugs (PWID) is, therefore, paramount to reach hepatitis C elimination targets. Increasing DAA uptake by PWID is important for interrupting transmission and reducing incidence, as well as reducing morbidity and mortality and improving quality of life of PWID and meeting Australia's hepatitis C elimination targets. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A cluster randomised cross-over trial will be conducted with three intervention arms and a control arm. Arm A will receive rapid hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody testing; arm B will receive rapid HCV antibody and rapid RNA testing; arm C will receive rapid HCV antibody testing and same-day treatment initiation for HCV antibody-positive participants; the control arm will receive standard of care. The primary outcomes will be (a) the proportion of participants with HCV commencing treatment and (b) the proportion of participants with HCV achieving cure. Analyses will be conducted on an intention-to-treat basis with mixed-effects logistic regression models. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the Alfred Ethics Committee (number HREC/64731/Alfred-2020-217547). Each participant will provide written informed consent. Reportable adverse events will be reported to the reviewing ethics committee. The findings will be presented at scientific conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05016609. TRIAL PROGRESSION: The study commenced recruitment on 9 March 2022 and is expected to complete recruitment in December 2024.

A novel point-of-care test for cirrhosis based on dimeric to monomeric IgA ratio in blood: a pilot cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Dimeric IgA to monomeric IgA ratio (dIgA ratio) is a biomarker of gut mucosal leakage in liver cirrhosis. We evaluated the diagnostic performance of a novel point-of-care (POC) dIgA ratio test for cirrhosis. METHODS: Plasma samples from people with chronic liver disease were analyzed using the BioPoint POC dIgA ratio antigen immunoassay lateral flow test. Cirrhosis was defined by Fibroscan>12.5 kPa, clinical evidence of cirrhosis or liver histopathology. POC dIgA test diagnostic accuracy was determined in a test cohort using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis; optimal cutoffs for sensitivity and specificity were then applied to a validation cohort. RESULTS: A total of 1478 plasma samples from 866 patients with chronic liver disease were included (test cohort n = 260, validation cohort n = 606). In all, 32% had cirrhosis; 44% Child-Pugh A, 26% Child-Pugh B, and 29% Child-Pugh C. Median POC dIgA ratio was higher in cirrhosis (0.9) compared with no cirrhosis (0.4, p < 0.001), and in Child-Pugh class B/C compared with A cirrhosis (1.4 Child-Pugh B/C vs. 0.6 Child-Pugh A, p < 0.001). POC dIgA ratio test had good diagnostic accuracy for liver cirrhosis in the test cohort (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve=0.80); a dIgA ratio cutoff of 0.6 had a sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 86%. POC dIgA test accuracy was moderate in the validation cohort (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve=0.75; positive predictive value 64%, negative predictive value 83%). Using a dual cutoff approach, 79% of cirrhosis cases were correctly diagnosed and further testing was avoided in 57%. CONCLUSIONS: POC dIgA ratio test had moderate accuracy for cirrhosis. Further studies evaluating the accuracy of POC dIgA ratio testing for cirrhosis screening are warranted.

Connecting patients notified with hepatitis C to treatment (CONNECT Study): A randomized controlled trial of active case management by a health department to support primary care practitioners.

BACKGROUND: Despite subsidised access to direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), hepatitis C (HCV) treatment uptake in Australia is declining. Interventions are needed to link people living with HCV to care and treatment. We implemented and measured effectiveness of a state-wide, health department-led, enhanced case management through the primary care practitioner for all HCV notifications, aiming to encourage and support treatment commencement. METHODS: A randomised controlled trial compared enhanced case management, delivered by the health department to diagnosing clinicians, with standard of care using notifiable disease systems in Tasmania, Australia (2020-21). The intervention involved a nurse specialist contacting and providing support by telephone to primary care practitioners making an HCV notification. The primary outcome was the proportion of cases notified with chronic hepatitis C who commenced treatment within 12 weeks of notification. We allowed a 12-week extended follow-up period at the end of the study for participants with no outcomes. RESULTS: Eighty-five primary care practitioners randomised to the intervention and 86 to standard of care arms notified 111 and 115 HCV cases, respectively. The proportion of cases notified with chronic hepatitis (HCV RNA detected) commencing treatment within 12 weeks was similar between study arms (41% vs 33%; p=0·51) and after extended study follow-up (65% vs 48%; p=0·18). RNA test completion was higher in the intervention than in standard of care arm (89% vs. 78%; p=0·03), while completing pre-treatment workup for chronic patients (65% vs. 64%; p=0·93) was similar. CONCLUSION: This was the first prospective randomised study of the utility of immediate HCV notification follow-up of primary care practitioners to enhance treatment uptake using disease notification surveillance data. We demonstrated improvement in HCV RNA testing and trend toward better engagement in care, but no significant increase in treatment uptake.

Invasive aspergillosis in adult patients in Australia and New Zealand: 2017-2020.

Background: New and emerging risks for invasive aspergillosis (IA) bring the need for contemporary analyses of the epidemiology and outcomes of IA, in order to improve clinical practice. Methods: The study was a retrospective, multicenter, cohort design of proven and probable IA in adults from 10 Australasian tertiary centres (January 2017-December 2020). Descriptive analyses were used to report patients' demographics, predisposing factors, mycological characteristics, diagnosis and management. Accelerated failure-time model was employed to determine factor(s) associated with 90-day all-cause mortality (ACM). Findings: Of 382 IA episodes, 221 (in 221 patients) fulfilled inclusion criteria - 53 proven and 168 probable IA. Median patient age was 61 years (IQR 51-69). Patients with haematologic malignancies (HM) comprised 49.8% of cases. Fifteen patients (6.8%) had no pre-specified immunosuppression and eleven patients (5.0%) had no documented comorbidity. Only 30% of patients had neutropenia. Of 170 isolates identified, 40 (23.5%) were identified as non-Aspergillus fumigatus species complex. Azole-resistance was present in 3/46 (6.5%) of A. fumigatus sensu stricto isolates. Ninety-day ACM was 30.3%. HM (HR 1.90; 95% CI 1.04-3.46, p = 0.036) and ICU admission (HR 4.89; 95% CI 2.93-8.17, p < 0.001) but not neutropenia (HR 1.45; 95% CI 0.88-2.39, p = 0.135) were associated with mortality. Chronic kidney disease was also a significant predictor of death in the HM subgroup (HR 3.94; 95% CI 1.15-13.44, p = 0.028). Interpretation: IA is identified in high number of patients with mild/no immunosuppression in our study. The relatively high proportion of non-A. fumigatus species complex isolates and 6.5% azole-resistance rate amongst A. fumigatus sensu stricto necessitates accurate species identification and susceptibility testing for optimal patient outcomes. Funding: This work is unfunded. All authors' financial disclosures are listed in detail at the end of the manuscript.

Evolution of Humoral and Cellular Immunity Post-Breakthrough Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Vaccinated Patients With Hematologic Malignancy Receiving Tixagevimab-Cilgavimab.

Background: In-depth immunogenicity studies of tixagevimab-cilgavimab (T-C) are lacking, including following breakthrough coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in vaccinated patients with hematologic malignancy (HM) receiving T-C as pre-exposure prophylaxis. Methods: We performed a prospective, observational cohort study and detailed immunological analyses of 93 patients with HM who received T-C from May 2022, with and without breakthrough infection, during a follow-up period of 6 months and dominant Omicron BA.5 variant. Results: In 93 patients who received T-C, there was an increase in Omicron BA.4/5 receptor-binding domain (RBD) immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody titers that persisted for 6 months and was equivalent to 3-dose-vaccinated uninfected healthy controls at 1 month postinjection. Omicron BA.4/5 neutralizing antibody was lower in patients receiving B-cell-depleting therapy within 12 months despite receipt of T-C. COVID-19 vaccination during T-C treatment did not incrementally improve RBD or neutralizing antibody levels. In 16 patients with predominantly mild breakthrough infection, no change in serum neutralization of Omicron BA.4/5 postinfection was detected. Activation-induced marker assay revealed an increase in CD4+ (but not CD8+) T cells post infection, comparable to previously infected healthy controls. Conclusions: Our study provides proof-of-principle for a pre-exposure prophylaxis strategy and highlights the importance of humoral and cellular immunity post-breakthrough COVID-19 in vaccinated patients with HM.

COVID-19 infection among patients with cancer in Australia from 2020 to 2022: a national multicentre cohort study.

Background: The global COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately affected certain populations and its management differed between countries. This national study describes characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 in patients with cancer in Australia. Methods: We performed a multicentre cohort study of patients with cancer and COVID-19 from March 2020 to April 2022. Data were analysed to determine varying characteristics between cancer types and changes in outcomes over time. Multivariable analysis was performed to determine risk factors associated with oxygen requirement. Findings: 620 patients with cancer from 15 hospitals had confirmed COVID-19. There were 314/620 (50.6%) male patients, median age 63.5 years (IQR 50-72) and majority had solid organ tumours (392/620, 63.2%). The rate of COVID-19 vaccination (≥1 dose) was 73.4% (455/620). Time from symptom onset to diagnosis was median 1 day (IQR 0-3), patients with haematological malignancy had a longer duration of test positivity. Over the study period, there was a significant decline in COVID-19 severity. Risk factors associated with oxygen requirement included male sex (OR 2.34, 95% CI 1.30-4.20, p = 0.004), age (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06, p = 0.005); not receiving early outpatient therapy (OR 2.78, 95% CI 1.41-5.50, p = 0.003). Diagnosis during the omicron wave was associated with lower odds of oxygen requirement (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.13-0.43, p < 0.0001). Interpretation: Outcomes from COVID-19 in patients with cancer in Australia over the pandemic have improved, potentially related to changing viral strain and outpatient therapies. Funding: This study was supported by research funding from MSD.

The Kurtzke EDSS rank stability increases 4 years after the onset of multiple sclerosis: results from the MSBase Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) is widely used to rate multiple sclerosis (MS) disability, but lack of disease duration information limits utility in assessing severity. EDSS ranking at specific disease durations was used to devise the MS Severity Score, which is gaining popularity for predicting outcomes. As this requires validation in longitudinal cohorts, we aimed to assess the utility of EDSS ranking as a predictor of 5-year outcome in the MSBase Registry. METHODS: Rank stability of EDSS over time was examined in the MSBase Registry, a large multicentre MS cohort. Scores were ranked for 5-year intervals, and correlation of rank across intervals was assessed using Spearman's rank correlation. EDSS progression outcomes at 10 years were disaggregated by 5-year EDSS scores. RESULTS: Correlation coefficients for EDSS rank over 5-year intervals increased with MS duration: years 1-6=0.55, years 4-9=0.74, years 7-12=0.80 and years 10-15=0.83. EDSS progression risk at 10 years after onset was highly dependent on EDSS at 5 years; one-point progression risk was greater for EDSS score of >2 than ≤2. Two-point progression was uncommon for EDSS score of <2 and more common at EDSS score of 4. CONCLUSIONS: EDSS rank stability increases with disease duration, probably due to reduced relapses and less random variation in later disease. After 4 years duration, EDSS rank was highly predictive of EDSS rank 5 years later. Risk of progression by 10 years was highly dependent on EDSS score at 5 years duration. We confirm the utility of EDSS ranking to predict 5-year outcome in individuals 4 years after disease onset.

[18F]FDG-PET-CT compared with CT for persistent or recurrent neutropenic fever in high-risk patients (PIPPIN): a multicentre, open-label, phase 3, randomised, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Management of neutropenic fever in high-risk haematology patients is challenging; there are often few localising clinical features, and diagnostic tests have poor sensitivity and specificity. We aimed to compare how [18F]flurodeoxyglucose ([18F]FDG)-PET-CT scans and conventional CT scans affected the guidance of antimicrobial management and the outcomes of patients with persistent or recurrent neutropenic fever. METHODS: We did a multicentre, open-label, phase 3, randomised, controlled trial in two tertiary referral hospitals in Australia. We recruited adults aged 18 years or older who were receiving conditioning chemotherapy for haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation or chemotherapy for acute leukaemia and had persistent (>72 h) or recurrent (new fever beyond 72 h of initial onset interspersed with >48 h defervescence) neutropenic fever. Exclusion criteria were pregnancy, allergy to iodinated contrast, or estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 30 mL/min. Patients were randomly assigned by computer-generated randomisation chart (1:1) to [18F]FDG-PET-CT or conventional CT. Masking was not possible because of the nature of the investigation. Scans were done within 3 days of random assignment. The primary endpoint was a composite of starting, stopping, or changing the spectrum (broadening or narrowing) of antimicrobial therapy-referred to here as antimicrobial rationalisation-within 96 h of the assigned scan, analysed per protocol. This trial is registered with clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03429387, and is complete. FINDINGS: Between Jan 8, 2018, and July 23, 2020, we assessed 316 patients for eligibility. 169 patients were excluded and 147 patients were randomly assigned to either [18F]FDG-PET-CT (n=73) or CT (n=74). Nine patients did not receive a scan per protocol, and two participants in each group were excluded for repeat entry into the study. 65 patients received [18F]FDG-PET-CT (38 [58%] male; 53 [82%] White) and 69 patients received CT (50 [72%] male; 58 [84%] White) per protocol. Median follow up was 6 months (IQR 6-6). Antimicrobial rationalisation occurred in 53 (82%) of 65 patients in the [18F]FDG-PET-CT group and 45 (65%) of 69 patients in the CT group (OR 2·36, 95% CI 1·06-5·24; p=0·033). The most frequent component of antimicrobial rationalisation was narrowing spectrum of therapy, in 28 (43%) of 65 patients in the [18F]FDG-PET-CT group compared with 17 (25%) of 69 patients in the CT group (OR 2·31, 95% CI 1·11-4·83; p=0·024). INTERPRETATION: [18F]FDG-PET-CT was associated with more frequent antimicrobial rationalisation than conventional CT. [18F]FDG-PET-CT can support decision making regarding antimicrobial cessation or de-escalation and should be considered in the management of patients with haematological diseases and persistent or recurrent high-risk neutropenic fever after chemotherapy or transplant conditioning. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council Centre of Research Excellence (APP1116876), Melbourne Health foundation, Gilead Research Fellowship grants supported this study.

Comparative Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Natalizumab and Fingolimod in Patients with Inadequate Response to Disease-Modifying Therapies in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Patients with highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis inadequately responding to first-line therapies (interferon-based therapies, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, and teriflunomide, known collectively as "BRACETD") often switch to natalizumab or fingolimod. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to estimate the comparative effectiveness of switching to natalizumab or fingolimod or within BRACETD using real-world data and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of switching to natalizumab versus fingolimod using a United Kingdom (UK) third-party payer perspective. METHODS: Real-world data were obtained from MSBase for patients relapsing on BRACETD in the year before switching to natalizumab or fingolimod or within BRACETD. Three-way-multinomial-propensity-score-matched cohorts were identified, and comparisons between treatment groups were conducted for annualised relapse rate (ARR) and 6-month-confirmed disability worsening (CDW6M) and improvement (CDI6M). Results were applied in a cost-effectiveness model over a lifetime horizon using a published Markov structure with health states based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale. Other model parameters were obtained from the UK MS Survey 2015, published literature, and publicly available UK sources. RESULTS: The MSBase analysis found a significant reduction in ARR (rate ratio [RR] = 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57-0.72; p < 0.001) and an increase in CDI6M (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.67; 95% CI 1.30-2.15; p < 0.001) for switching to natalizumab compared with BRACETD. For switching to fingolimod, the reduction in ARR (RR = 0.91; 95% CI 0.81-1.03; p = 0.133) and increase in CDI6M (HR = 1.30; 95% CI 0.99-1.72; p = 0.058) compared with BRACETD were not significant. Switching to natalizumab was associated with a significant reduction in ARR (RR = 0.70; 95% CI 0.62-0.79; p < 0.001) and an increase in CDI6M (HR = 1.28; 95% CI 1.01-1.62; p = 0.040) compared to switching to fingolimod. No evidence of difference in CDW6M was found between treatment groups. Natalizumab dominated (higher quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] and lower costs) fingolimod in the base-case cost-effectiveness analysis (0.453 higher QALYs and £20,843 lower costs per patient). Results were consistent across sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This novel real-world analysis suggests a clinical benefit for therapy escalation to natalizumab versus fingolimod based on comparative effectiveness results, translating to higher QALYs and lower costs for UK patients inadequately responding to BRACETD.

High incidence of hepatitis C virus reinfection in a cohort of injecting drug users.

UNLABELLED: An estimated 170 million people worldwide carry the hepatitis C virus (HCV), and in more developed countries the prevalence and incidence of HCV is particularly high among injecting drug users (IDUs). Spontaneous clearance of HCV infection and reinfection is well recognized but the level of protection against further infection conferred by HCV infection and clearance remains uncertain. We conducted a prospective study of HCV infection in IDUs recruited in Melbourne, Australia, using a much shorter median testing interval than in previous studies. Incidences of naive infection and reinfection were calculated by the person-year method and Cox proportional hazards regression used to adjust for covariates. A significantly higher HCV incidence rate was measured in previously infected IDUs (46.8% per year) compared with HCV-naive IDUs (15.5% per year). The hazard ratio for previously infected IDUs compared to HCV-naive IDUs, after adjustment for time-dependent covariates, was 2.54 (95% confidence interval, 1.11-5.78, P > |z| < 0.05). Viral persistence after reinfection appeared similar to that following naive infection. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that HCV infection in IDUs is more likely following prior infection and clearance than in HCV-naive individuals, implying no increased immunity against further infection. This result has important implications for the future development of an HCV vaccine.