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This study investigates the reciprocal county-level relationship between the number of concealed carry weapon (CCW) licenses issued and homicides between 2010 and 2019 in a sample of eleven states. We utilize a random intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM) approach accounting for reciprocal effects over time between homicide and concealed carry licenses, providing a robust methodological approach to the study of concealed carry and homicide. The results of the RI-CLPM found that increases in the number of CCWs in 2010-2017 were statistically associated with increases in total gun homicide in 2011-2018. Reciprocally, we found some limited evidence that increases in gun homicide were associated with changes in the number of CCWs issued in subsequent years during the early part of our study period. Far from concealed carry making people safer, our model finds acute safety risks associated with expansion of legal firearm carrying. As the right to carry firearms expands in many states, we emphasize the importance of responsible gun ownership practices, and draw attention to the need to implement preventive laws that keep guns out of the hands of people with prior violent histories and from places where violence risk is amplified.
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Armas de Fogo , Suicídio , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Homicídio , PropriedadeRESUMO
Gun violence imparts a tremendous human and financial toll on local communities. Researchers have documented extensive mental and physical health consequences of generalized violence exposure but few studies have analyzed the particular impacts of gun violence on community well-being using nationally comprehensive data. We leverage a unique database of almost 16,000 neighborhoods in 100 US cities (2014-2019) to examine how year-over-year rates of gun violence correspond to overall neighborhood well-being and three aspects of community health: (1) health behaviors, (2) physical and mental health status, and (3) health prevention efforts. We simultaneously consider the reciprocal influence of neighborhood well-being on subsequent gun violence while accounting for concentrated disadvantage in communities. The results demonstrate that gun violence is associated with poorer community health in subsequent years, particularly health behaviors and mental/physical health status. Furthermore, we find substantial reciprocal effects for both gun violence and community health in their relationship to neighborhood concentrated disadvantage. These findings highlight the consequential role of gun violence in perpetuating cycles of harm in local communities.
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Exposição à Violência , Violência com Arma de Fogo , Humanos , Cidades , Saúde Pública , Características de ResidênciaRESUMO
This city-level study examines the association of federally licensed firearm dealers (FFLs) and measures of illegal firearm availability with the risk of intimate partner homicide. Annual data for a sample of 286 large cities in the United States were collected for the years 2010-2019, incorporating city-level information on the number of gun-perpetrated homicides, the rate of licensed firearm dealers, and guns reported lost or stolen. All data were compiled and analyzed in 2020. Negative binomial models were used to assess the relation of firearm availability and gun homicide by intimate partners, in comparison to gun homicide between non-intimates. Results indicate that a higher rate of licensed firearm dealers was associated with a higher risk of intimate partner homicide, although more pronounced in states with lower-than-average existing gun ownership. This association was robust to different analytical methods and alternate ways of capturing illegal guns. A supplementary analysis using unique data from The Trace further supports the argument that FFL presence is a risk factor for intimate partner firearm homicide specifically, but not necessarily firearm homicide characterized by other motives.
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Armas de Fogo , Violência por Parceiro Íntimo , Cidades , Homicídio , Humanos , Relações Interpessoais , Estados Unidos , ViolênciaRESUMO
Research shows that community violence is associated with an array of negative health outcomes, yet no study has examined the specific association between different types of gun violence and collective health behaviors in local neighborhoods. Using data from neighborhoods in the city of Philadelphia, this study examines the association between total, fatal, and non-fatal gun violence and measures of physical inactivity, obesity, sleep, and smoking. We find the rate of non-fatal shootings is associated with a composite measure of health behaviors, net of all neighborhood-level covariates and general community violence. Ancillary analyses show that non-fatal shootings are particularly associated with physical inactivity and obesity. Notably, fatal shootings are not associated with any behavioral health measure after accounting for nonlethal shootings. The results support improved data collection efforts to measure non-fatal shootings across the U.S. and greater attention to the collective health consequences of gun violence in local communities.
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Violência com Arma de Fogo , Comportamentos Relacionados com a Saúde , Humanos , Philadelphia/epidemiologia , Saúde Pública , Características de ResidênciaRESUMO
Some research has considered whether faith-informed programs help persons with a previous incarceration navigate a life away from crime. Few studies considered whether offense category moderates this relationship. Building upon studies that found a strong association between a prior sexual conviction and participation in religion in prison, we assess whether time spent in humanist, spiritual, and religious (HSR) programs in prison is associated with reconviction, separately for persons convicted of a sex offense and any other offense. Our results revealed that a higher level of participation in HSR programs was associated with a lower likelihood and rate of reconviction; however, this effect was more pronounced for persons with a prior sexual conviction. Supplementary analyses revealed that the use of religion in an extrinsic manner was beneficial, suggesting this group may look to religion to gain social support and overcome rejection and loneliness. Extrinsic religiosity among other groups, however, was associated with an increased risk of reconviction.
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Estabelecimentos Correcionais , Criminosos/psicologia , Reincidência/estatística & dados numéricos , Delitos Sexuais/psicologia , Programas Voluntários , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Humanismo , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise de Regressão , Religião , EspiritualidadeRESUMO
This paper investigates the association between legal access to firearms in the community through licensed dealers and homicides perpetrated by intimate partners (IPH). We conducted a series of multilevel negative binomial models to assess the relationship between the rate of county-level federally licensed firearm dealers and intimate partner homicides, by gender and age, controlling for leading macro-level correlates of IPH. The rate of county-level federally licensed firearm dealers is significantly associated with intimate partner homicides in urban counties, regardless of gender and age. Although data cannot discern that the rate of licensed firearm dealers is linked to greater legal firearm access, our findings focus attention on the role of community factors, including gun stores, as significant risk factors for violence. Policies to reduce legal options to purchase firearms, especially for those with prior domestic violence offenses, may help to decrease intimate partner homicide, but better data tracking is needed to help us understand how guns move from purchase into the hands of IPH perpetrators.
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Armas de Fogo/legislação & jurisprudência , Homicídio/estatística & dados numéricos , Violência por Parceiro Íntimo , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Relações Interpessoais , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise Multinível , Estados Unidos , Adulto JovemRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: Informed by social control and differential coercion and social support theories, we examine how multiple theoretically and methodologically distinct factors of family support relate to reincarceration, substance use, and criminal offending during prison reentry. METHOD: Using four waves of data from the Serious and Violent Offender Reentry Initiative, we identified three separate factors of family support-interactional (e.g., providing guidance and support), instrumental (e.g., providing housing and transportation), and emotional (e.g., providing love and belongingness). A series of mixed-effects models examined how each form of family support related to reincarceration, substance use, and criminal offending. RESULTS: Findings demonstrated that instrumental, but not interactional or emotional, support related to significantly lower odds of reincarceration and lower levels of substance use and criminal offending. Interaction terms revealed that the effect of instrumental family support is almost entirely independent, and not interactive, on each outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Family support appears to relate to prosocial reentry outcomes not because of emotional or interactional bonds, but because families provide for the basic needs of returning individuals. Instrumental familial support mechanisms such as providing housing and financial support appear more salient in promoting prosocial reentry outcomes than mechanisms of emotional or interactional support.
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Within a large field of family violence research, a slowly growing body of literature has examined community-level variables to explain variation in violence. Studies investigating the role of ecological factors have largely been informed by social disorganization theory. This represents considerable progress, but the community context also includes many ecological factors yet to be considered by studies examining family violence, and as such, successful neighborhood interventions have been limited. Furthermore, few community-level studies have explored whether serious family violence is geographically clustered. The current study used police calls for service data to examine how the health context of a community is associated with family violence. Accounting for spatial dependence, a higher prevalence of self-reported mental illness in a neighborhood related to family violence, although a higher prevalence of physical health difficulties was negatively associated with family violence. These results carry implications that can inform community-based efforts, particularly in economically disadvantaged neighborhood, aimed at reducing family violence.
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Anomia (Social) , Violência Doméstica/psicologia , Violência Doméstica/estatística & dados numéricos , Características da Família , Características de Residência/estatística & dados numéricos , Apoio Social , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estados Unidos , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Religious beliefs and practices have been shown to have some association with desistance from offending, as have cognitive processes, including emotion regulation, self-control, reasoning, learning, and empathy. Religious behaviours may, however, be moderated or mediated by cognitive abilities, but few studies take this into account. AIM: The aim of this study was to assess the role of cognitive ability in any relationship between religious beliefs and behaviours and desistance from substance use among adolescents. METHOD: Data were extracted from the Pathways to Desistance Study dataset (n = 1,354). Religious measures were self-rated importance of religion, helpfulness of religion in dealing with problems, and attendance at religious services. Cognitive measures were the Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence and Trail Making Tests. A count of numbers of mind-altering substances used constituted the main substance measure. Control variables included sex, age, and age of onset of offending. RESULTS: Mixed-effects longitudinal analyses revealed that religious behaviours did constitute a significant predictor of lower substance use for young people after a criminal conviction, after controlling for changes in employment, social support, and delinquent peer association, but only among those with average or above cognitive function. CONCLUSIONS: These findings may explain why there have been some discrepancies in previous studies of religion and substance misuse. They may also have important implications for the training of anyone delivering programmes to young people in prison that have faith-based elements, including community faith group leaders and volunteers.
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Cognição/fisiologia , Criminosos/psicologia , Religião , Transtornos Relacionados ao Uso de Substâncias/psicologia , Adolescente , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Transtornos Relacionados ao Uso de Substâncias/epidemiologiaRESUMO
To manage intimate partner violence (IPV), the criminal justice system has turned to risk assessment instruments to predict if a perpetrator will reoffend. Empirically determining whether offenders assessed as high risk are those who recidivate is critical for establishing the predictive validity of IPV risk assessment instruments and for guiding the supervision of perpetrators. But by focusing solely on the relation between calculated risk scores and subsequent IPV recidivism, previous studies of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments omitted mediating factors intended to mitigate the risk of this behavioral recidivism. The purpose of this study was to examine the mediating effects of such factors and the moderating effects of risk assessment on the relation between assessed risk (using the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised [DVSI-R]) and recidivistic IPV. Using a sample of 2,520 perpetrators of IPV, results revealed that time sentenced to jail and time sentenced to probation each significantly mediated the relation between DVSI-R risk level and frequency of reoffending. The results also revealed that assessed risk moderated the relation between these mediating factors and IPV recidivism, with reduced recidivism (negative estimated effects) for high-risk perpetrators but increased recidivism (positive estimate effects) for low-risk perpetrators. The implication is to assign interventions to the level of risk so that no harm is done. (PsycINFO Database Record
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Criminosos/psicologia , Violência por Parceiro Íntimo/psicologia , Reincidência/psicologia , Medição de Risco/métodos , Maus-Tratos Conjugais/psicologia , Connecticut , Criminosos/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Humanos , Entrevista Psicológica , Violência por Parceiro Íntimo/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Escalas de Graduação Psiquiátrica , Reincidência/estatística & dados numéricosRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: While a great deal of attention has been given to the 1990s crime drop, less is known about the more recent decline in homicide rates that occurred in several large U.S. cities. This paper aims to explore whether these represent two distinct drops via statistical evidence of structural breaks in longitudinal homicide trends and explore potentially differing explanations for the two declines. METHODS: Using homicide data on a large sample of U.S. cities from 1990 to 2011, we test for structural breaks in temporal homicide rates. Combining census data and a time series approach, we also examine the role structural features, demographic shifts, and crime control strategies played in the changes in homicide rates over time. RESULTS: Statistical evidence demonstrates two structural breaks in homicide trends, with one trend reflecting the 1990s crime drop (1994-2002) and another trend capturing a second decline (2007-2011). Time series analysis confirms previous research findings about the contributions of structural conditions (e.g., disadvantage) and crime control strategies (e.g., police force size) to the crime drop of the 1990s, but these factors cannot account for the more recent drop with the exception of police presence. CONCLUSIONS: Although both structural conditions and crime control strategies are critical to the longitudinal trends in homicide rates over the entire span from 1990 to 2011, different factors account for these two distinct temporal trends.
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OBJECTIVES: We investigated how racial/ethnic shifts in the urban landscape influence race-specific violence by considering changes in the size of the Hispanic population, racial/ethnic contact, and racial segregation patterns. METHODS: We used a time-series approach incorporating 4 decennial periods (1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010) to determine whether racial/ethnic demographic changes in 144 US cities influenced White and Black homicide rates. Sources included census and Uniform Crime Reports Supplemental Homicide Report data. RESULTS: The growing diversity in the residential population of US cities contributed to the dramatic decline in homicide rates over time, but the effects differed by racial group. Exposure between Hispanics and Blacks and the growing presence of Hispanics led to a reduced Black homicide trend but had no impact on Whites, after adjustment for economic shifts and other important structural features in US cities. CONCLUSIONS: Our research highlights the importance of paying closer attention to exposure and integration between immigrants and existing racial groups. Failure to consider racial/ethnic contact and the racial nature of urban violence may produce misleading results in studies of associations between Hispanic immigration and crime.
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Negro ou Afro-Americano/estatística & dados numéricos , Hispânico ou Latino/estatística & dados numéricos , Homicídio/etnologia , Racismo , População Urbana , Violência/etnologia , População Branca/estatística & dados numéricos , Teorema de Bayes , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologiaRESUMO
RATIONALE: Community gun violence significantly shapes public health and collective well-being. Understanding how gun violence is associated with community health outcomes like mental health and sleep is crucial for developing interventions to mitigate disparities exacerbated by violence exposure. OBJECTIVE: This study examines the associations between community gun violence , insufficient sleep, and poor mental health across neighborhoods in the United States. METHODS: We utilized a novel database covering nearly 16,000 neighborhoods in 100 US cities from 2014 through 2019. Correlated trait fixed-effects models were employed to conduct all analyses while considering various neighborhood covariates such as concentrated disadvantage, demographic composition, population density, and proximity to trauma centers. RESULTS: Our analysis revealed that greater gun violence is associated with both insufficient sleep and poor mental health in subsequent years. There is a reciprocal relationship between poor mental health and insufficient sleep, with each partially mediating the other's association with community gun violence. Notably, gun violence exhibits the strongest direct association with poor sleep rather than with poor mental health. We found a consistent reciprocal relationship between sleep and mental health at the community level. CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlight a complex interplay between community violence, sleep, and mental health, underlining the importance of reducing community violence through numerous long-term interventions to address health disparities across the US.
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Cidades , Violência com Arma de Fogo , Características de Residência , Humanos , Violência com Arma de Fogo/estatística & dados numéricos , Violência com Arma de Fogo/psicologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Características de Residência/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde Mental/estatística & dados numéricos , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto , SonoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: A growing body of research has found a link between firearm availability and police shootings of citizens across place. The problem, however, is that the previous studies on the topic tend to suffer from several limitations: a near exclusive focus on citizen fatalities, units of analysis at the state or county levels, and a variety of proxy measures tapping into community-level firearm access. The current study set out to address these issues by examining the relationship between different forms of firearm availability and both fatal and nonfatal injurious police shootings of citizens at the city level. METHODS: More specifically, it merged The Trace's "Missing Pieces" measures of guns reported lost and stolen to police as well as licensed firearms dealers across jurisdictions from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives as proxies for firearm availability with data on police shootings of citizens in California and Florida from California's URSUS system and the Tampa Bay Times' "Why Cops Shoot" database, respectively. Negative binomial regression analyses were performed on a sample of 253 cities across the two states and a sub-sample of cities with licensed firearms dealers. RESULTS: Findings uncovered a small positive association between rates of federally licensed guns stores and the number citizens shot by police as well as police shooting incidents while controlling for several community-level measures (e.g., concentrated disadvantage, gun homicide rates). Rates of guns lost or reported stolen were generally not significantly associated with the outcome measures in the multivariate models. CONCLUSIONS: Firearm availability is a significant correlate of police shootings. Pooled counts of both citizens shot by police and police shooting incidents are heightened in jurisdictions with higher rates of licensed gun dealers, which may be due to the fact that all firearms sold in the USA first make their way to the public through these mechanisms. Such licensed gun dealers must be appropriately monitored and audited to reduce illicit behavior and prevent firearms from making their way into secondary markets. Addressing access to firearms can be meaningful for a host of gun-related morbidity and mortality outcomes, including police shootings of citizens.
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BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic disadvantage related to poverty, unemployment and social disinvestment contributes to significant disparities in community health in the USA. Yet, there remains limited ecological research on the relationship between neighbourhood disadvantage and functional disability. Much of the work in this area has focused on elderly populations without attention to variation across age and sex groups. METHODS: Using a longitudinal dataset of almost 16 000 neighbourhoods, we examine the relationship between neighbourhood disadvantage and functional disability. Leveraging a series of cross-lagged panel models, we account for reciprocal dynamics and a range of pertinent covariates while assessing differences across age- and sex-specific groups. RESULTS: Accounting for reciprocal effects, we found that the association between concentrated disadvantage and functional disability varies across age and sex groups. Concentrated disadvantage is most consistently associated with increased functional disability among boys (5-17 years), young men (18-34 years) and middle-aged men (35-64 years). Similar associations are found among girls (5-17 years) and middle-aged women (35-64 years). CONCLUSION: Local neighbourhood economic conditions are significantly associated with functional disability among relatively young populations of males and females. Exposure to neighbourhood disadvantage and deprivation may accelerate disablement processes and shift the age curve of disability risk.
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Pobreza , Características de Residência , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Masculino , Idoso , Humanos , Feminino , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Cidades , Características da VizinhançaRESUMO
This study seeks to determine the concurrent and predictive validity of a dual risk assessment protocol. It combines the risk of persistence in intimate partner violence (IPV) measured via the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised (DVSI-R) with supplemental items from the Danger Risk Assessment (DRA) bearing on the risk of potential lethality. We further test whether this assessment protocol reproduces disparities by race and ethnicity found in the larger population. Using a sample of 4,665 IPV male defendants with a female victim, analyses support both types of criterion validity. The DRA risk score is associated with felony charges, incarceration at the initial arrest, and the frequency of subsequent dangerous behavior. Results also suggest minimal predictive bias or disparate impact by race and ethnicity. Incorporating supplemental items bearing on potential lethality risk adds important information concerning the risk management strategies of those involved in IPV.
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Violência Doméstica , Violência por Parceiro Íntimo , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Medição de Risco/métodos , Fatores de Risco , Inquéritos e QuestionáriosRESUMO
Despite the importance of understanding the prevalence, causes, and consequences of conflict and violence within families, the specific risk of violence following a family member's release from incarceration has been hard to ascertain. Research indicates that a significant percentage of persons released from incarceration will experience involvement in family violence in their life, yet it remains unclear whether this heightened risk exists due to larger family or structural contexts or whether incarceration itself leads to heightened risk of family violence after release. Using an integrative review methodology that combines results from both qualitative and quantitative studies, we review existing studies of family violence after incarceration to explore (1) the prevalence, (2) variation in measurement, (3) risk factors, and (4) protective factors for family violence after a family member's incarceration. Through a search of three separate databases for peer-reviewed and gray literature, we analyzed 26 studies that estimated any form of physical family violence after any family member had been incarcerated. Where reported, intimate partner violence occurs in almost a quarter of cases, although only four studies examine the prevalence of violence perpetrated against children by parents. Family violence history, weakened family support during incarceration, and substance use after release all emerged as persistent risk factors. Directions and opportunities for future research are discussed.
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Violência Doméstica , Violência por Parceiro Íntimo , Transtornos Relacionados ao Uso de Substâncias , Criança , Humanos , Prevalência , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
This study uses data on neighborhoods in four U.S. cities over five years to examine the relationship between fatal and non-fatal gun violence and rates of functional disability among men. Descriptive analyses indicate significant disparities in shooting rates across neighborhoods and heightened associated disability in high shooting communities. Multivariate results show that rates of non-fatal shootings correspond to greater functional disability among young men, but not older men. Fatal gun violence is not associated with increased community disability. The findings suggest that improvements in local gun violence prevention may serve to address broader community disparities in health and well-being.
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Armas de Fogo , Violência com Arma de Fogo , Idoso , Cidades , Humanos , Masculino , Características de Residência , ViolênciaRESUMO
Nonfatal strangulation between intimate partners represents an extreme controlling form of violent behavior, increasing the risk that intimate partner violence (IPV) becomes lethal. Guided by Dutton and Goodman's conceptualization of coercive control, the present research explored the relation between death threats and subsequent nonfatal strangulation to amplify the credibility of those threats, using a large sample of IPV perpetrators (n = 6,488). Logistic regression analyses determined the relation between overt threats to a partner's life during an initial incident arrest and subsequent nonfatal strangulation postincident arrest, accounting for perpetrator characteristics and assessed risk. Results showed the highly gendered nature of this violent behavior, noting that men were significantly more likely than women to persist in nonfatal strangulation. Given the potential lethality of this violent behavior, the analysis also explored whether treatment service recommendations (family violence education, counseling, and mental health evaluation) mitigate these patterns. These preliminary findings support the further exploration of treatment and intervention efforts for reducing nonfatal strangulation.
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Violência por Parceiro Íntimo , Coerção , Feminino , Humanos , Relações Interpessoais , Masculino , Parceiros Sexuais , ViolênciaRESUMO
Over the past 5 years, intimate partner homicides have increased among Hispanic women, although ethnicity has rarely been brought into macro-level research on intimate partner homicide. These trends have occurred alongside many macro-level changes in the United States. Although both Hispanic and non-Hispanic women are most likely to die at the hands of a partner via a firearm, no study to date has examined the importance of licensed firearm dealer availability in addition to leading macro-level correlates of intimate partner homicide. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Violent Death Reporting System, the current study explores the role of licensed firearm dealer availability, economic disadvantage, and other features of counties to explore ethnic-specific variation in intimate partner homicides from 2010 to 2016. Results from multilevel negative binomial models revealed consistency in the estimated effects of the rate of licensed firearm dealers and divorce on partner homicides across all models, although the significant association of gun stores and intimate partner homicide was witnessed in urban counties for total and non-Hispanic (both Black and White) models only. Important variation also exists across racial and ethnic groups, including well-established correlates of overall intimate partner homicide (i.e., economic disadvantage, rurality, non-intimate homicide rate, and state policies).